MCD1! trade ideas
Canadian Dollar: Potential Bullish Butterfly at 50% RetracementI am looking for a buy in the PRZ shown based on the bullish Butterfly pattern as well as 50% retracement level.
From an Elliot Wave perspective, if the move up from the recent bottom was all a first wave then this is the minimum retracement I would expect for the second wave. In this case we are getting ready for Wave 3 which would likely be pretty amazing.
This was also previously a supply zone which now could be turned to demand, if you believe that sort of thing (I am not too sure about it myself).
My stop loss for the butterfly is below the 1.414 extension, shown by the red horizontal ray. However if I am stopped out I will likely still look for chances to long from lower, perhaps based on a larger bullish pattern, unless there is a strong move down before then.
This will be a continuation of my previous CAD trade which I have linked below. I will be looking to employ the same strategy as in that idea once price reaches the PRZ, and still optimistic that bull flag will break up someday!
Canadian Dollar Futures: FlagI know it is not advisable to try and pick a bottom..I have learned this lesson many times. However when I noticed today price had dipped below the .618...Daily RSI was in oversold territory... and it made a pinbar on the 5 minute chart with decent volume...I decided to take a shot. But I am going to try a different approach to catching a bottom this time.
My plan is to try to long from this .618 area when I see a bullish candle/pinbar on the low time frames with my stop below that candle. I will move the stops to breakeven/cover costs after I am up some pips.
This might not be a great plan, but I see it as a way to potentially catch a large move without using a large stop loss which might get spiked out anyway. If the Canadian Dollar is going to start a large move up anytime soon, then I might just get lucky enough to get in with the small risk and hold on for the longer term move.
I believe this idea is also in accordance with a quote I have recently found by Paul Tudor Jones:
“If I have positions going against me, I get right out; if they are going for me, I keep them… Risk control is the most important thing in trading. If you have a losing position that is making you uncomfortable, the solution is very simple: Get out, because you can always get back in.”
I am not saying he means exactly what I am trying here but...I think it fits the overall strategy for this trade.
I am happy to hear (read) any comments on this idea or strategy. Wish me luck!
P.S. A big thank you to @MaryJane for her educational posts on the 1-2-3 Trading Strategy and the Flag Pattern (linked below), both of which have helped me with my trading and analyses!
Close to CAD Strength???Worth noting the CAD Futures chart has tagged the 61.8....Keeping an eye on this one
Canadian Dollar bullish flagJune Canadian Dollar created a bullish flag today as the USD create a bearish doji. RSI continues to climb. Watching for upsurge Monday to fill in BAT/Gartely pattern. Need confirmation. Upside target is the 50 day moving average at .75635, then downside trend at .75935
My First GartleyI am looking at a Bearish-Gartley in /6C Canadian Dollar futures. I am very new to this website, not sure why it is labeled as D61! but whatever. So X is Monday's high around .75150. A is Tuesday's low around .74630. B is a .618 retracement of XA. C is a .786 retracement of AB. D is the reversal and entry point. I entered the trade at .75065 the 1.272 extension of ABA. I have my stop at the .75210, just above last Thursday's high. My one and only profit target is the .74845, this is the .382 fib of AB. This is a live trade with one contract.
Wish me luck
Canadian Dollar poised for Bearish GartleyJune Canadian Dollar rose today off a doji. Looking for another move up to hit downward trend. Next upside target .75425. Watching USD for turn and sink lower, and confirmation of CAD upward move.
Canadian dollar future bear trendCanadian dollar bear trend likely to resume. Target is on the median line (0.7374). Entry 0.76230. Stop loss 0.7680. Probability H.
Canadian DollarWe may finally see the USD head and shoulders drop. The USD has come to the neckline. A pull back in the USD has created buying opportunities for CAD, AUD, NZD and others. CAD fought back lower prices.
Gartley has been achieved if bulls can raise the USD, and the CAD will fall off the Gartley. If the USD drops we may achieve a Butterfly for the CAD.
Canadian DollarCanadian dollar is building out another bullish flag and the USD continues forming a head and shoulders pattern. See more upside to the CAD. Possible top at .76790 from last week. 78.6% is just a hop, skip and jump from there to complete the Cypher pattern at .77080. If flag does not hold then further downside to .75625 area.
Canadian DollarThe USD continues to build its head and shoulders pattern. Canadian dollar is coming close to the 78.6% of the Bearish Cypher pattern. A little up and down may be in the offing.
Canadian DollarMarch Canadian dollar still showing bullish flag and didn't drop as much as other money markets. Still watching the USD to show direction as the USD is still building the head and shoulders.
Canadian DollarThe March Canadian dollar is creating a bullish flag today. The USD was down and looking more bearish. The USD is creating a head and shoulders, so for the moment, the USD will be in chop allowing the CAD to progress higher. Next upside for the bulls for the CAD is the 61.8% position at .76305 and if it can push higher 78.6% completing the weak Cypher pattern at .77080. I say weak as the BC leg never went to 113% of the XA leg.
Canadian Dollar Key technical levelCanadian dollar at a 2 week support level, in terms of shorter term counter trend, this could be a good buy level targeting the 61.8 Fibonacci extension as possible resistance, however looking at the larger trend, if price were to break support- look for a larger continuation to downside.
Loonie Short?CAD hardly broke this descending wedge this week and finished this week right at support. The wonderful market left itself right here as the USD slumped a bit from resistance to finish the week.
We would look to short on a break and retest of the green zone. If we rally back into the wedge, I want to see what happens near that down trend line. A rejection would lead to another retest of the green zone or fail. Momentum through the trendline would certainly lead to a retest of the blue zone above.
***Short Opp***Really looking for price to get into our discount zone which is the area between the purple (89 week sma) and the yellow (89 day sma) to make a trade in the direction of the trend. However, this is an exhaustion candle here with the red arrow. This indicates the market testing new higher highs and then closing much lower than the high. The market didn't like those high prices and got exhausted.
Small opportunity but nevertheless an opportunity.
One could sell the futures contract or short the call option for a more conservative option (Pun intended)!
Futures trading involves series risk of financial loss and is not suitable for every investor.
Contracting triangle on Canadian future.Nice triangle, just wait till break trendlines and buy or sell accordingly
