Buyers returnedBuyers returned in the S&P 500 on Wednesday but can they follow through. Stronger closes on Thursday and Friday could set the tone for longer-term action in this market.
MES1! trade ideas
2024-10-16 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
Indexes - Bears hoped for a second leg down and build decent selling pressure but bulls bought the dip. Nothing unexpected and we likely continue sideways at the highs until bears give up again or more bulls get exhausted and want to secure profits. Technically I expect another leg down but we could retest the highs first. Don’t overstay your welcome in positions.
comment: 5850 was the low yesterday and bears could not break below. Weak bears gave up and we closed around the 50% pullback from Tuesday’s selling. Where does this leave us? Nowhere. 5890ish is the worst place to trade now because it’s the exact mid point of this trading range. Wait for strong momentum or until we reach one of the extremes again. These bullish earnings should have taken the market higher by now if you ask me. So there is a decent chance we are forming a credible top. 5850 - 5920 is the current range and until we see the MAG7 earnings, it probably won’t break out of it.
current market cycle: bull trend (bull wedge)
key levels: 5850 - 5920
bull case: Bulls bought the dip, no surprise there. They want 5900+ next and they will probably continue to buy 5850. No more magic to this. Since it was a bullish close, bulls are very slightly favored higher tomorrow but I would not buy 5886 right now.
Invalidation is below 5850.
bear case: Bears tried and failed. They have to make the market more neutral and trade sideways until more bulls want out of their position. BTFD is still strong. Anything above 5850 is bullish and bears have to scalp. Earnings will probably set the next impulse to either side.
Invalidation is above 5920.
short term: Neutral inside given range.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-10-13: Very rough guess for the remaining trading weeks in 2024. Spike up, decent correction (~10%), nasty (blow off top) year end rally if earnings hold in Q4. Don’t trade based on that guess.
current swing trade: Nope
trade of the day: Long the double bottom with yesterday’s low. Very obvious trade that worked greatly.
Daily Morning Update: ES levels and targets Oct 16thYesterday, ES triggered its first short since October 7 by dropping below 5895. The targets were 5878 and 5866, and we’ve been sitting around 5866 all overnight. We’re now in a neutral to bearish phase, aside from any relief pops.
As of now: 5866 is acting as the magnet, with 5857 as support. 5878 is the next target, with 5892 above that. If 5857 breaks, 5842 next will be next down, with 5830-33 as the next zone to watch.
Catch a breathSellers enter on Tuesday in the S&P 500 futures market. The expectation for Wednesday is to move inside Tuesday's range to only slightly lower movement in the S&P 500.
How High Will The SPX Go & Where To Buy ItBuying extremes is bad, as you are diminishing long side value.
Also if you get a sudden change in market sentiment you will get hit fast.
Here's why.
What’s Flowing: GBPUSD / CADCHF / BXY / DXY / XRPUSD / ETHUSD Today's episode covers both forex and crypto markets, along with insights into the commodity space. With several key economic releases and global events in play, we expect volatility to increase across these assets. Be ready for breakouts in both currency pairs and cryptos, and monitor how commodity markets, like coffee, react to supply developments.
Stay tuned for more updates and trade ideas as we continue to track these market flows throughout the week!
FX:GBPUSD
OANDA:CADCHF
BITSTAMP:XRPUSD
COINBASE:ETHUSD
TVC:BXY
TVC:DXY
FRACTAL TRADING BASED ON RUSSELS SYSTEM: PREDICTIONS AND SYSTEMSWe have a system for ES with Russel's capital group's fractal system that gives us probabilities based on the volume of option contracts. Just levels, we go towards, bounce, and probabilities to pass or reject! follow it and see for yourselves.
Follow throughBuyers continued driving the market higher in the S&P 500 on Monday. The challenge now will be follow through to new highs on Tuesday. This is the action that is expected for this market.
2024-10-14 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
Indexes - In my weekly post yesterday I wrote “max bullish” a couple of times and I hope you did not short this today. Bulls are in absolute control and they have no reason to stop buying every small dip. You can not be a bear on the hope that this madness will stop eventually. It can go much further than you can imagine. Strong day, strong close, can only expect higher prices until bears print consecutive big bear bars on higher time frames. My best guess is still a blow-off top this week, which can mark the top before we see a bigger correction. Today felt like we are already in it.
sp500 e-mini futures
comment: Break above both bull wedges. Could this be a bull trap? I highly doubt that. 6000 will very likely be hit this year.
current market cycle: max bullish
key levels: 5860 - 6000
bull case: Bulls are in full control and we can only expect higher prices, given the strength of this follow through buying. We have a small channel which will likely break overnight and the next bull trend line is around 5890 already and aligns nicely with the 1h 20ema. Next obvious target is 6000.
Invalidation is below 5880.
bear case: Nothing really. Can they prevent 6000? Doubt it. Can they get a deeper pullback before we get there? Also doubt that. Anything below 5880 would surprise me. If they get it, 5850 is their next target and bigger support.
Invalidation is above 6050.
short term: Bullish af. Don’t look for shorts. Buy on pullbacks when bulls come around again.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-10-13 : Very rough guess for the remaining trading weeks in 2024. Spike up, decent correction (~10%), nasty (blow off top) year end rally if earnings hold in Q4. Don’t trade based on that guess.
current swing trade : None
trade of the day: Globex oscillated around last week’s close and after bar 10 it could not even touch the 15m 20ema again. Could have bought anywhere and made money except 15m before US close.
ES levels and targets Oct 14thIt’s been pure charting 101. Last Thursday, ES built a textbook bull flag between 5815-5840. Breakout targets were 5858-60, then 5874, which we just hit perfectly.
As of now: Let the runners do the work until the first post-flag sell-off. 5868 is support, keeping 5873-74 (again) and 5888-90 in play. If we drop, watch for 5838-42 below.
ES Day Trading Analysis With Volume ProfileOn ES (S&P 500 Futures) , it's nice to see a strong buying reaction at the price 5806.
There's a significant accumulation of contracts in this area, indicating strong buyer interest. I believe that buyers who entered at this level will defend their long positions. If the price returns to this area, strong buyers will likely push the market up again.
The S/R zone from the past and high volume cluster are the main reasons for my decision to go long on this trade.
Happy trading
Trader Dale
SP500**SP500:**
New all time high ate 5865.
This week's forecast is for the price to rise but before that, it needs to fall slightly.
5836 Direct BidDirect bid long of 5836 which is backtest of flag resistance (white channel).
SL-5824
TP1-5842
TP2-585
$MES1! Demanding ain't She?Here on the CME_MINI:MES1! We are simplifying our analysis to forecast the next years action based on the current years close.
Utilizing candlestick psychology, when you have two well separated thick bodied candles after a cluster has been formed; the odds are likely that we have an established Demand Imbalance. This imbalance will continue for at least one more full sized candle to the upside.
In the projection on the chart I would love to say that 7000$ is the target for 2025, however market makers will like use a truncated high to bag the retail crown for some time. Always set your exits to avoid round numbers and take profits prior to any major phycological levels.
While I do expect a decent pullback likely into the beginning of 2025, closing over the previous years high will be your entry to get in.
You're Welcome.
#202441 - priceactiontds - weekly update - sp500 e-mini futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
sp500: Also max bullish. Bulls closed 8 points below the ath. Strong buy signal going into next week but the issue (again) is that you are buying above the bigger bull wedge and at the very high of a nested one. Waiting for a pullback to go long is the much more reasonable trade instead of buying near 5860. The wedge has room to 5900, so 6000 is a valid year end target. Bear case begins below 5750. 5800-5850 is neutral.
Quote from last week:
comment: Much bigger range than the previous week with wild moves the whole week. Bears sold it with spikes, followed by bulls who bought every dip. End result was 5800 again and now what? We are near the ath and can easily make a new one. The high was also high enough to count as a decent lower high and we sell off from here. Given the strong bull bar on Friday, we have to give the higher odds to the bulls to get follow through above and we will probably make a new ath.
comment: Two decent days were enough for the bulls to make new ath. Again a bad place to trade, 8 points below the new ath. We have nested bull wedges and market broke above the bigger one. Odds favor some pullback but I would rather wait and be flat than to short this.
current market cycle: nested bull wedges
key levels: 5750 - 5900
bull case: Bulls want 5900 and have all the arguments on their side. That still does not make buying 5859 a good buy. It’s possible that bulls break above both wedges and continue for 5900 and much higher, is it likely though? I doubt it.
What, no more text? We have two perfectly fitting patterns and are trading at the very highs. I have given precise invalidation prices. Don’t think more words will make this better. Just as more trades probably won’t make you more money. Quality over quantity.
Invalidation is below 5750.
bear case: Bears have nothing until they close below 5750. We are at the highs but so what? 5 Consecutive weekly bull bars say it all. Don’t look for shorts when bears do not make money other than scalping on time frames below 15m. When these two wedges break below, we will see a decent correction again and it’s possible over the next weeks but as of right now, bears are in pain and nothing else.
Invalidation is above 5910.
outlook last week:
short term: Neutral 5750 - 5850, big range but we are in the middle of that given range and both sides have reasonable arguments. If bulls get follow through above 5800, long scalps are a decent trade for 5830 or a bit higher. Right now I would not trade it.
→ Last Sunday we traded 5800 and now we are at 5859. Neutral range but I wrote above 5800 a long is good for 30 points or more. Good outlook.
short term : Neutral since we are exactly at the top of two big patterns and 8 points below the ath. Sitting on hands is best here.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-10-13: Very rough guess for the remaining trading weeks in 2024. Spike up, decent correction (~10%), nasty (blow off top) year end rally if earnings hold in Q4. Don’t trade based on that guess.
current swing trade: None
chart update : None
#ES_F Day Trading Prep Week 10.13 - 10.18Last Week :
Interesting week we had as many different things happened and it was fun to watch.
Last week Globex opened and made a return back into distribution balance, RTH flushed the inventory back into VAL but we again were able to hold VAL into the close and Tuesday Globex rotated back inside balance which brought buying and gave us another failed attempt out of balance top but market was able to hold over the 80s and supply which brought in more buying and triggered a short covering stop run into next Value which held and gave some continuation to close the week.
This Week :
Friday market attempted a push for VAH into 5840 - 80s Intraday range. We were able to hold around the mean of the of the range into the close but we can see it ended with a Poor high and Weakness into into 50s.
IF we are to accept in this new range then we would see price holding over 840s, over Value if that will be the case then we could continue trading in this range over VAL and start building up for an attempt at VAH test.
BUT we have to be careful as mentioned last week and week before that previous distribution range was a very interesting area and with current PA we might not be fully done with it, of course we will have to see what the market will actually do. Which means if we don't accept inside/over Value then this push could find its way back under 40s into VAL, IF we will be holding under 30s with Supply above that could trigger more weakness to get us back towards the Edge and eventually if we will have the supply find a way back into Previous Balance.
Something to note this week is Volume has been low, we don't have any market moving news until Thursday so need to be careful for more a slow leak back in instead of a quick return if it is to happen, holding over 830s would or 860s would change the weakness.
S&P 500 (ESZ2024) - Is $6,000 A Far-Fetched Target?We are in uncharted territories and with price for the week closing @ $5,859.75, it would seem reasonable from a non-technical, irrational point a view that $6,000 is the next target.
In fact, I am pretty sure we will hear headlines about the chance to make 'history', reaching a milestone of $6,000 despite all the turmoil in the world.
What fundamentals will it take for this to materialise?
S&P 500 (ESZ2024) - Is $6,000 A Far-Fetched Target?We are in uncharted territories and with price for the week closing @ $5,859.75, it would seem reasonable from a non-technical, irrational point a view that $6,000 is the next target.
In fact, I am pretty sure we will hear headlines about the chance to make 'history', reaching a milestone of $6,000 despite all the turmoil in the world.
What fundamentals will it take for this to materialise?
Combined US Equities Breakout late OctoberVery quickly, the expected breakdown did not happen, and this week saw the an across the board bullish breakout. Noted the breakout is long in the teeth (old and late) and while bullish, it is not strong nor convincingly sustainable. Reminiscent of this expectation is the MACD and VolDiv looking lackluster.
Expected top marked, and after 21 Oct needs a review... that would be the projected resistance for a stronger pullback.
Bullish for now and the week ahead.
Enjoy, make hay while the sun shines!
Comfortable closeFriday's close and the S&P 500 implies a market where buyers are comfortable holding on to a position going into the weekend. The expectation from Monday is a close between 5870 and 5880.
ES levels and targets Oct 11After Wednesday’s breakout, 5840-5815 became the new flag, just as expected. ES respected those levels, with 5815 tested five times and 5840 three times.
As of now: No change. 5815 and 5809-11 (weak) are support levels. As long as they hold, 5829 and 5840 remain in play, with a potential breakout. If 5809 fails, 5792 next down
A bouncy ThursdayThe S&P 500 structure for Thursday implied a bouncy market because of the shadow on its low. The issue now is Ken buyers follow through as earnings are reported on Friday with the close between 5870 and 5880.
I give up with request.quandl()Recently Tradingview gave us limited options stuff but unfortunately their API makes this very difficult, technically speaking, there should theoretically be a way to get options data from request.quandlor get local real estate data for say, a REIT and then do fun calculations but that data lacks documentation or doesn't work.
//@version=5
indicator("Combined Macro & Financial Indicator", overlay=false)
// Define constants for index values
ZILLOW_PRICE_INDEX = 1
US_GDP_INDEX = 1
SOYBEAN_FORECAST_INDEX = 1
PRODUCER_LONGS_INDEX = 8
PRODUCER_SHORTS_INDEX = 9
SWAP_LONGS_INDEX = 10
SWAP_SHORTS_INDEX = 11
INFLATION_INDEX = 1
ES1_CLOSE_INDEX = 4
ES1_OPTIONS_INDEX = 1 // Placeholder index for options data
// Zillow Real Estate Data: Median Listing Price
// Source: Zillow database on Nasdaq Data Link
zillow_price = request.quandl("ZILLOW/M00039_MRP", index=ZILLOW_PRICE_INDEX, ignore_invalid_symbol=true)
// World Bank Data: US GDP
// Source: World Bank database on Nasdaq Data Link
world_bank_gdp = request.quandl("WWDI/USA_NY_GDP_MKTP_CN", index=US_GDP_INDEX, ignore_invalid_symbol=true)
// WASDE: Soybean Forecast
// Source: World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) on Nasdaq Data Link
wasde_soybean = request.quandl("WASDE/SOYBEAN", index=SOYBEAN_FORECAST_INDEX, ignore_invalid_symbol=true)
// CFTC: Net Positions (e.g., Gold Futures)
// Source: Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) reports on Nasdaq Data Link
producer_merchant_processor_user_longs = request.quandl("CFTC/088691_F_ALL", index=PRODUCER_LONGS_INDEX, ignore_invalid_symbol=true)
producer_merchant_processor_user_shorts = request.quandl("CFTC/088691_F_ALL", index=PRODUCER_SHORTS_INDEX, ignore_invalid_symbol=true)
swap_dealer_longs = request.quandl("CFTC/088691_F_ALL", index=SWAP_LONGS_INDEX, ignore_invalid_symbol=true)
swap_dealer_shorts = request.quandl("CFTC/088691_F_ALL", index=SWAP_SHORTS_INDEX, ignore_invalid_symbol=true)
// IMF: US Inflation Data
// Source: International Monetary Fund (IMF) data on Nasdaq Data Link
imf_inflation = request.quandl("ODA/USA_PCPIPCH", index=INFLATION_INDEX, ignore_invalid_symbol=true)
// ES1! Data: S&P 500 E-mini Futures Close Price
// Source: S&P 500 E-mini Futures on TradingView (ES1!)
es1_close = request.security("ES1!", "D", close)
// ES1! Options Data: Placeholder for S&P 500 E-mini Futures options data
// Source: Options data on Nasdaq Data Link (if available)
es1_options = request.quandl("CBOE/ES_OPTIONS", index=ES1_OPTIONS_INDEX, ignore_invalid_symbol=true) // Replace "CBOE/ES_OPTIONS" with correct dataset code if available
// Create a table to display the data
table_id = table.new(position.top_right, 10, 2, border_width=1)
// Set table headers
header_bg_color = color.blue
header_text_color = color.white
table.cell(table_id, 0, 0, "Indicator", text_color=header_text_color, bgcolor=header_bg_color)
table.cell(table_id, 0, 1, "Value", text_color=header_text_color, bgcolor=header_bg_color)
// Set table rows
default_text_color = color.black
table.cell(table_id, 1, 0, "Zillow Median Listing Price", text_color=default_text_color)
table.cell(table_id, 1, 1, na(zillow_price) ? "N/A" : str.tostring(zillow_price), text_color=default_text_color)
table.cell(table_id, 2, 0, "World Bank US GDP", text_color=default_text_color)
table.cell(table_id, 2, 1, na(world_bank_gdp) ? "N/A" : str.tostring(world_bank_gdp), text_color=default_text_color)
table.cell(table_id, 3, 0, "WASDE Soybean Forecast", text_color=default_text_color)
table.cell(table_id, 3, 1, na(wasde_soybean) ? "N/A" : str.tostring(wasde_soybean), text_color=default_text_color)
table.cell(table_id, 4, 0, "Producer Merchant Longs", text_color=default_text_color)
table.cell(table_id, 4, 1, na(producer_merchant_processor_user_longs) ? "N/A" : str.tostring(producer_merchant_processor_user_longs), text_color=default_text_color)
table.cell(table_id, 5, 0, "Producer Merchant Shorts", text_color=default_text_color)
table.cell(table_id, 5, 1, na(producer_merchant_processor_user_shorts) ? "N/A" : str.tostring(producer_merchant_processor_user_shorts), text_color=default_text_color)
table.cell(table_id, 6, 0, "Swap Dealer Longs", text_color=default_text_color)
table.cell(table_id, 6, 1, na(swap_dealer_longs) ? "N/A" : str.tostring(swap_dealer_longs), text_color=default_text_color)
table.cell(table_id, 7, 0, "Swap Dealer Shorts", text_color=default_text_color)
table.cell(table_id, 7, 1, na(swap_dealer_shorts) ? "N/A" : str.tostring(swap_dealer_shorts), text_color=default_text_color)
table.cell(table_id, 8, 0, "S&P 500 E-mini Futures Close Price", text_color=default_text_color)
table.cell(table_id, 8, 1, na(es1_close) ? "N/A" : str.tostring(es1_close), text_color=default_text_color)
table.cell(table_id, 9, 0, "S&P 500 E-mini Futures Options Data", text_color=default_text_color)
table.cell(table_id, 9, 1, na(es1_options) ? "N/A" : str.tostring(es1_options), text_color=default_text_color)
// Set the y-axis scale and style for better readability
hline(0, "Zero Line", color=color.gray, linestyle=hline.style_dotted)
// Background color for the chart
bgcolor(color.new(color.gray, 90)) // Background color to help distinguish the indicator plots
// Possible Sources and Explanation of Codes
// Zillow: Provides real estate data (e.g., median listing prices) using code "ZILLOW/M00039_MRP"
// World Bank: Uses "WWDI/USA_NY_GDP_MKTP_CN" to get the US GDP
// WASDE: Uses "WASDE/SOYBEAN" to get the forecast data for soybeans
// CFTC: Uses "CFTC/088691_F_ALL" for the Commodity Futures Trading Commission reports (e.g., Gold Futures)
// IMF: Uses "ODA/USA_PCPIPCH" to get US inflation data
// ES1!: Uses "ES1!" for the S&P 500 E-mini Futures close price
// Options Data: Placeholder code "CBOE/ES_OPTIONS" for options data, replace with actual dataset if available
// Notes on NaN Values
// If values are returned as NaN, this could indicate that the data is either not available or the dataset has updated, requiring a different code or index.
// Consider checking the data availability on the Nasdaq Data Link website to verify the dataset codes and indices.
// Max Number of Requests
// Pine Script limits external requests like `request.quandl()` to avoid overwhelming servers. Consider limiting the number of requests or combining data where possible to optimize the use of requests.
