ES - Can AI Euphoria Continue The Bull Run?With the expectation being a draw up to all time highs before some form of rejection, we have seen that it is not the case.
Near term PD array at 5,995.50 is of interest
MES1! trade ideas
Es daily recap of price action Quick easy overview of what I look at during the day for my entries and exits.
Im pretty busy during the day so I try to make my charting as easy and clean as my eyes can see. Hope this helps anyone and Im open to anything else I can use as for more confirmations. Thanks!
ES NQ AND RTY ROTATION PATTERNS AND AREAS FOR SHORT AND LONG Areas of interest on NQ RTY and ES for short and long with the rotation levels and patterns in play
Sideways move is expectedBecause of the price structure for the last two training sessions in the S&P 500 daily chart a sideways move is expected for Thursday price action. Thursday’s structure will set up the PCE announcement on Friday.
S&P Futures review 2-26-2545-min chart
Tight bear channel, 3 clear pushes down. Bears are unlikely to hold on to short positions too long. Likely a push up and then second leg down
Explaining why ES did what it did today!Quick explanation of Distribution Schematics, and Unfinished Business using Order Flow. No indicators just being able to see real time orders and limit orders in the market. notice how price enters into a Resistance zone and the Delta turns very negative. Green Flag for shorts.
Be patient and wait for a clear set up.
SPY Short Swing This swing trade idea is based on the daily timeframe. I have also already traded intraday on the same levels and trade idea and have already cashed in those positions. I have few that I am swinging and will take partials along the way and manage them accordingly. One doubt I have is how the NVDA earnings will play into effect. As for now, for indices this trade idea has good RR that's just too bad to miss. I believe the ultimate target will take time to deliver and may offer further opportunities of entry later on. We have been on the bearish OF on all TF and with strong rejection from the D. SIBI will indicate the price is very bearish. So far the signs are there and will need to see how we close today.
S&P 500: Rejection at Resistance and Potential Downside RisksThe chart shows a clear rejection from a key resistance zone around 6,150 points, highlighted by the red area. After an attempt to break through, the price faced strong bearish pressure, falling back below the 6,100 level. The current retracement has led the price to test the 50-day moving average (yellow), which has so far provided temporary support. However, breaking this structure could increase the risk of a sharper decline toward the intermediate support at 5,924, marked by the dashed yellow line.
Recent macroeconomic releases, such as the decline in retail sales and weakening consumer confidence, are weighing on market sentiment, increasing pressure on stock indices. Additionally, uncertainty related to tariffs proposed by the U.S. administration is adding volatility, with investors showing signs of risk aversion. If the price fails to quickly recover the 6,100-6,150 area, the next bearish target could be the more structured support zone at 5,850-5,800, identified by the lower blue area.
In summary, the technical structure reflects a moment of uncertainty with a clear rejection from the weekly resistance. A recovery above 6,100 could bring buyers back in control, while further weakness would open the door to new declines toward lower support levels.
Es1Support from the 15 min orderblock 🎯
Looking very bullish next swing high might be the next target
ES Morning Update Feb 26thDespite all the volatility yesterday, ES is right back where it started. After holding ~5933 support, the target was 5996, a major resistance shelf. As expected, it’s taking time to break through and has held all night.
As of now:
• Hold the runner
• Staying above 5988 keeps 6004, 6015, and 6020+ in play
• If 5988 fails, expect a dip toward 5962-58
Es bullishI’ll looking to get a bounce off this 15 min order block zone coming from the 4 hr swing candle to take out pdh. Waiting for hammer candle confirmation.
ES+NQ Futures at 61.8% Fib ExtensionCreating a chart adding the two futures together and drawing a Fibonacci extension from the 2009 lows to 2022 high to 2022 low, shows we have just hit the golden fib level 28,692.00.
Combined US Indexes - Incoming Break or Bounce ?From the previously marked timeline on 18 Feb 2025, just days later, you see the combined US Indexes plummet to cut through the middle decision box (purple), and extrude out below. This formed the double top second peak in essence, and the days following just closed at a two month low.
While this might appear Bearish, it is worth noting the lower tails in previous candles which are followed by rallies to the upper resistance. Would this happen the third time?
I would beg to differ...
In fact, marked out is a critical support point which should be tested in early March. At that point (yellow ellipse), there is a confluence of a previous trend change support, the current TDST and just below that the larger consolidation range support.
While the RoVD is slightly bullish, the MACD is dipping with MACD in bearish lower half, and the signal line tapering down towards the boundary into bear territory.
In summary, it looks slightly bearish to the critical support point. From there, it would be good to see if it bounces or it breaks down.
Sellers backed offAt the S&P 500 low on the daily chart for Tuesday’s action, sellers backed off the market indicating buyers on the close for this market. The expectation is for further movement to the upside. Watch out for the market reaction to Nvidia results.
ID: 2025 - 0011.2.2025
1st trade of 2025 executed today.
Trade entry at 134 DTE (days to expiration).
Trade construct is a PDS (put debit spread) at Delta 25 combined with a PCS (put credit spread) at Delta 13.
Sizing and strike selection is designed to keep the risk/reward "AT EXPIRATION" to a 1:1 risk profile. This lets charm work it's magic (second order greek), while exploiting the fact that this is a non-directional bias. The process is a disciplined and systematic approach letting time decay evaporate the extrinsic time value from the short options until target profit is achieved.
IF target profit is not captured after 60 DIT (days in trade), then target is reduced by 50% for the next 30 days.
IF reduced target profit is not captured after 90 DIT, then short strikes are covered to add BSH (black swan hedge) protection for a catastrophic move down.
This trade will deploy every 10 days until account value has doubled in size. :-)
Happy Trading All!
-kevin
ES Morning Update Feb 25thYesterday, all attention was on the 5993 area in ES. I expected a rally back up to 6043 off that level, and we saw it hold in the morning before pushing back to 6043. Later into the close, the market retested 5993 area again, sparking a 20-point rally. Overnight, a strong flush occurred, but the level was reclaimed, printing a textbook failed breakdown—5993 is now pretty used up in my opinion.
As of now:
• 6016-20, 6037 are the next targets
• 5996-93 (weak) and 5980 are serving as supports
• If these supports fail, expect a leg down below
Set up DayThe main focus in the S&P 500 daily chart for Wednesday will be the Nvidia results. The expectation is that Tuesday will be the set up day for Wednesday’s announcements. This means the expectation is not for a large movement to the downside on Tuesday in the S&P 500. The next objective to the downside is 5970.
ES NQ AND RTY FUTURES RECAP AND LEVSL OF INTERESTLevels of interest on Nq RTY and Es futures and what may lie ahead.
SP500 is now Net-ShortSP500 is now Net-Short on the regression break.
The bond markets have also increased in value and risk off build.
/ES - GEX Structure with TPO and SPX GEX insight
The structure revisited last week's POC during GLOBEX, followed by position adjustments during the US CASH SESSION. As usual, 99% of the time, this zone oscillates up and down without a clear direction.
Respecting the downside levels, the market tested Friday’s low around 6018 to see if it holds, showing no interest in paying anyone.
I’m leaning towards a bearish stance as long as we keep trading below 6060/6080.
Key Levels:
POC Retest (GLOBEX): 6040
Friday’s Low: 6018
Highest Negative NETGEX: 6010
2nd PUT Wall: 5990
3rd PUT Wall: 5965
Single Prints Area: Below 5950
Poor Low Zones: 5920 and below
The market remains stuck in a balance area, reacting to these levels while traders adjust positions. Any sustained trade below 6018-5990 could trigger further downside movement, while reclaiming 6060/6080+ may shift the bias back upward.
SP:SPX = GEX considerations :
1. GAMMA CONDITION
Currently Negative → SPX is in a Put-Dominated Environment, meaning put open interest and volume outweigh calls.
Why it matters:
Negative gamma means market makers hedge by selling into declines and buying into rallies, increasing volatility.
If SPX drops further, dealers must sell more, potentially accelerating downside moves.
2. NET GEX / DEX (Gamma and Delta Exposure)
Gamma Exposure (GEX)
Since Yesterday: Net GEX decreased by -86.51M (-10.67%), moving from -810.5M to -897M.
Since 14:00: Net GEX decreased by -85.33M (-10.51%), now at -897M.
Interpretation:
A decreasing negative GEX suggests put activity is rising or being adjusted, reinforcing volatility.
With negative gamma, dealers hedge in ways that magnify price swings in both directions.
Delta Exposure (DEX)
Since Yesterday: Net DEX dropped by -47.58B (-4.24%), from 1.12T to 1.07T.
Since 14:00: Net DEX decreased by -33.39B (-3.02%), now at 1.07T.
Interpretation:
The decline in DEX suggests dealers are reducing their long delta exposure, which may indicate hedging pressure in response to market movement.
3. VOLUME & PUT/CALL RATIOS
P/C Volume Ratio: Increased to 1.45, indicating more puts being traded than calls.
Call Volume (Since Open): 1.14M contracts, up 6.46% since 14:00.
Put Volume (Since Open): 1.65M contracts, up 8.24% since 14:00.
Interpretation:
A Put/Call Ratio of 1.45 signals a strong bearish bias, as traders are buying more puts for downside protection.
The increase in put volume confirms that downside hedging is intensifying.
Top 5 Strikes by Volume:
6000 Put (128.67K contracts)
6050 Call (77.35K contracts)
6000 Call (71.31K contracts)
6040 Call (68.04K contracts)
5950 Put (67.57K contracts)
Interpretation:
Heavy put volume at 6000 suggests this is a key support level.
Calls at 6050 & 6000 show traders positioning for potential resistance at these levels.
4. PRIMARY LEVELS (Support & Resistance)
Call Resistance: 6200 (far above spot price).
Call Resistance (0DTE): 6055 (40.8 points above current price).
Put Support: 6000 (14.2 points below).
Put Support (0DTE): 6010 (4.2 points below).
Interpretation:
6000 is a key support level—if broken, expect further selling.
Resistance at 6055-6060 means bounces could struggle around this zone.
5. GAMMA FLIP (HVL - High Volatility Level)
HVL (Gamma Flip Level): 6095 (80.8 points above).
HVL (0DTE): 6050 (35.8 points above).
Interpretation:
6095 is the gamma flip zone—above this, gamma could turn positive, leading to more stability.
As long as SPX trades below these levels, we remain in a volatile, bearish regime.
6. TOP GEX STRIKE CHANGES
Largest Positive Changes (Increased GEX - More Call Exposure):
6020: +10.23M (+24.58%)
6050: +4.01M (+11.83%)
6015: +3.99M (+18.02%)
6045: +3.53M (+23.67%)
6035: +3.51M (+20.02%)
Largest Negative Changes (Decreased GEX - More Put Exposure):
6010: -25.9M (-39.22%)
6000: -10.87M (-11.14%)
5990: -7.89M (-23.78%)
5975: -5.33M (-10.53%)
6055: -4.67M (-85.38%)
Interpretation:
Biggest GEX drop at 6010 and 6000 → weakening support, making downside moves more likely.
GEX increase at 6020-6050 → some resistance is building there, potentially capping rallies.
OVERALL TAKEAWAYS
📉 Bearish Bias:
The negative gamma condition and put-heavy environment suggest increased volatility and downside pressure.
Key downside level: 6000—a break could trigger more selling.
Resistance zone: 6050-6060—any bounces may struggle here.
Dealers are positioned to sell into weakness, reinforcing potential downward momentum.
MES!/ES1! Day Trade Plan for 02/24/2025MES!/ES1! Day Trade Plan for 02/24/2025
📈6075, 6095
📉6035, 6015
Like and share for more daily ES/NQ levels 🤓📈📉🎯💰
*These levels are derived from comprehensive backtesting and research and a quantitative system demonstrating high accuracy. This statistical foundation suggests that price movements are likely to exceed initial estimates.*
ES Morning UpdateOn Friday, after breaking below 6104 support, ES delivered a rare trend day. This set up a rally to kick off the week, with a reclaim of 6042 acting as the long trigger around 6pm. The first target of 6068 was hit exactly.
As of now:
• Hold the long runner.
• As long as the market stays above 6042, 6068 again, then 6092 and 6104 next up, and the bullish move remains intact.
• If 6042 fails, expect a dip toward 6020.
