ES Overnight Price Action REview 9-17-24Going over the price action ES overnight looking for clues as to what the market is telling us. always know where you'll get out if you're wrong.
MES1! trade ideas
SPX Market Analysis for Monday| ICT & Stats | Sep 16Pre Market Analysis for Sep 16'th using Statistics and Data to drive a 70%+ historical accuracy with all analysis methods.
ICT Trader using ICT Stats.
Topics:
- Yesterday's Results
- Today's Projections
S&P Rally Continues, How High Will We Get?The SPX rally that started on a softer landing scenario has been fuelled even more by investor confidence.
It's always wise to remember that equities generally will not fall unless there is reason. That would come in the form of real economic headwinds, or at least the speech about their potential.
To stop being wasted;
1) Trade tiny sizes.
2) Only short once you can see a real sentiment shift/long term reversal (think about Yens).
3) Space any entries out far and wide.
4) Leave it out your portfolio.
5) Balance your portfolio by hedging with other assets (equities up, Antipodeans long, USD short).
Easy yet effective.
ES/SPY Sept 16 Weekly AnalysisWe are off to a slow start this week but we look like we could ne pushing our way up. The current pattern on SPY looks like a potential bullish flag pattern.
Keep in mind that this week we are awaiting the Fed's decision on decreasing the interest rates by 50 basis points. As we await the decision, we are looking for clues in the candlesticks, to give us a hint as to which direction we could break out to once the Fed decision is made.
From the 15min perspective on SPY, there is a support gap closing around 559. If we continue to drop, we could fall into a support fair value gap around 555.
If price continues to hold and break up to the bullish side, we are expecting SPY to continue up and test the all time high around 564.
We also want to keep in mind that ES will change contracts this week from September to December. The contract change itself, could cause some changes in the ES chart (especially the price value). It could cause the price to drop and test into the lower daily support fair value gap around 5600. If price were to continue up, it would most likely fill the daily resistance fair value gap around 5736.
From the daily ES perspective, 5736 is the resistance and 5628, would be considered the tight trading range for this week. Depending on how we break structure, will further determine how price will continue to either rise or fall.
ES Inverse Head & Shoulders Target Hit + TriangleI recently posted about an inverse H&S on ES as the right shoulder was forming and it ended up playing out even though I was skeptical at the time. We can measure the projected target by taking the distance from the bottom of the head to the neck line and measuring that from the breakout point. That target was around 5700 which has been hit (note the contract rollover.) On top of that target we have the previous double top/ATH and trendline resistance.
The trendline is the top end of a triangle shown here with the gray lines. Once again we have multiple resistance and confluence for a rejection. However, this also means that if it breaks to the upside it will have that much more momentum and lead to more short squeezes. If the triangle breaks to the upside, first target is naturally going to be ATH. I'd be careful of a rejection there and look for the triangle to hold on a retest for more longs. If the retest doesn't hold, I'd interpret that as bearish and start looking for shorts.
It's a big week so I expect this to lead to a break up or down soon. We're at the very top end so first downside target is the bottom end of the triangle and then the neck line.
Stronger Asia openThe S&P 500 opened stronger in the Asia Tuesday session. If you are on the long side of this market be cautious because the market oftentimes will come back to the previous range with this type of higher opening. Although there is plenty of fundamental information that can create volatility in this market, the expectation is for a positive week for the S&P 500.
Full ES Trading Plan For Sep 17th** The Levels in this section all now reference the December (ESZ2024) contract prices.**
Plan for Tuesday: • Supports are: 5690, 5684, 5680 (major), 5671, 5662-64 (major), 5654 (major), 5650, 5645, 5639 (major), 5632, 5627 (major), 5620, 5614 (major), 5607, 5598, 5588, 5579 (major), 5573 (major), 5568, 5562, 5548-52 (major), 5544, 5532, 5523-26 (major).
• In terms of lvls I’d bid direct: Conditions remain extremely poor and this partially attributed to contract rollover and partially attributed to the market waiting on FOMC Wednesday. Setups are scarce, and overtraders will continue to be punished badly. In these conditions it is essential to plan your trades and trade your plan, then sit on profits after. Generally speaking everything between 5680 and 5702 or so is pure chop now. If you over-trade in this zone, you will lose money and the only attractive trades in this situation are typically failed breakdowns, and we saw plenty today below 5680. For tomorrow 5680 remains support. This level is very well tested now and no longer reliable at all now. I won’t be bidding it directly, but if we dip down to 5671 then recover it may be actionable for a final time. As I warned yesterday, we have essentially rallied everyday now since last Wednesday. In this situation , rug pulls can come out of the blue, and it can occur anytime now. It does not mean that we stop taking longs, but it means we should be cautious now until the market “gets it out of its system”. My longs today were only partially sized and any future longs will remain so until a rug pull happens (which is inevitable) and plays out for a deep sell. We do not predict when this will occur, but we are prepared to react. Below 5680 is 5662-64. Once 5680 fails we could easily end up in “knife catch mode” so I am not overly interested in buying supports. If we test 5664 though and reclaim today’s low, it may present an attractive level to level move. If we get a proper dip tomorrow, both 5627 and 5614 would be spots I’d consider small knife catches at. As always, no rush, you can wait to see how price reacts at the zone especially if we are knifing into it at full speed.
• Resistances are: 5696 (major), 5703 (major), 5709, 5720 (Major), 5724, 5734 (major), 5739, 5748, 5754-56 (major), 5765, 5770, 5774, 5781-85 (major), 5794, 5802 (major), 5815, 5829-32 (major), 5840, 5847, 5859 (major), 5865, 5877, 5881 (major). As readers know I don’t short strength in ES so I won’t be shorting any of the above levels (win rate for shorting when bulls control is just too dismal for me even attempt). For those who have a higher risk tolerance than me though, 5734 would be one spot to consider trying shorts.
• Buyers case tomorrow: As I said on Friday buyers remain fully in control and we could easily pullback to 5552 over 100 points lower and it would just be a healthy, normal pullback after this size of rally. When I talk buyers case tomorrow, it is therefore just in the very short-term. For tomorrow, the buyers case would just involve ES filling out the 5702 to 5680 range more. We could ping pong and failed break this down many more times. As long as this structure is in tact though, it is a bull flag and would simply resolve us higher. This would ultimately target 5720, then 5732. If that big resistance can clear, we ultimately head up to 5756, then to re-test the ATH. I normally give spots to add on strength but given this very tight range, I cannot responsibly do this without seeing the action in real time as the zone is too choppy. Perhaps tests of 5680 that recover 5690 may be a concept of interest.
• Sellers case tomorrow: The sellers case here is only short-term obviously, and begins on the failure of 5690. As I say everyday, there is a strong disclaimer that goes with these types of trades. These types of level loss shorts below a support are called breakdown trades. My core edge is failed breakdowns, and the reason is this is an edge is the vast majority of break downs (80%) trap. They take great skill to execute, and even when done well by a trader who has mastered these setups, one should expect over 60% to fail (they are low win rate, high R/R trades. 2 or 3 in a row will fail, then the 4th will pay out huge). *If you don’t like these odds and cant tolerate being trapped - simply don’t take them. I consider breakdown trades to be an advanced setup type so if a newer subscriber, there is nothing wrong with passing on these*. As always I don’t chase. I will warn that this is a very complex short as this is a trappy zone. Unless you are very experienced with this type of entry, do not try this entry and wait for a more established downtrend to form. Since the 5680 level is already fairly well tested, we could just flush it directly. Ideally, I’d want to see some sort of bounce and/or failed breakdown though in that 5671 to 5680 cluster again before trying short. After this reaction, perhaps 5669 would be an entry, but it would have to go below wherever the real time structure is formed after any bounce attempt. Be sure to take profits level to level, as we could very easily just pop down a level then squeeze 60 or 70 points.
In summary for tomorrow: We are chopping ahead of FOMC. My general lean is always to defer to the trend. 5680 to 5703 is a pure chop zone and as long as 5680 holds (or recovers on any traps below) we can work higher to 5720, then 5734. If 5680 fails, ES needs to sell before FOMC (and for buyers, this is the healthiest thing possible).
OHLC Statistical Mapping LongWhen long, the simplest model is +Manipulation to -Manipulation SL was placed below 1/3ADR-
2024-09-16 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
Since today was a very slow day, my weekly update is more interesting than today’s daily update (in case you haven’t read it).
Indexes - Disappointment for the bulls was my assumption for today and that we got. Boring sideways movement in tight trading ranges. DJI was the only market with strength, printing a new ath but closing below 41700, so probably mostly a liquidity grap. Wednesday we have FOMC and I don’t expect markets to move far away from their current ranges.
sp500 e-mini futures
comment: Small green doji on the daily chart. Not much to comment about. Market closed 11 points above the open price and mean reversion was profitable today. I expect the triangle on the daily to hold until FOMC.
current market cycle: trading range (triangle)
key levels: 5400 -5670
bull case: Please see my weekly update.
Invalidation is below 5540.
bear case: Bears got 1 decent bear bar on the 1h chart and bulls bought it. Until bears can print 3-4 consecutive bear bars on the 1h tf, they have nothing going for them. Best they can hope for is to stay below 5670
Invalidation is above 5670.
short term: Neutral between 5600-5670 and I don’t expect a break of this range until FOMC.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-01 : Very much like my outlook in dax. Trading range on the daily chart and we are at the highs. We could make higher ones or not. Does not matter much. I expect 5000 to be hit again in 2024.
current swing trade: Nope
trade of the day: Buying bar 39 low was perfect but any bar from 39-46 was ok. Market clearly did not want to go lower then open price is always an obvious magnet on ranging days.
ES levels and targets sept 16thFriday, I posted two targets in ES: 5619 and 5630. We hit 5630 by 10am. It was a battleground for the last two weeks of August, and we’ve been stuck here ever since. *Avoid overtrading around this .*
As of now: 5619-22 is weak support. Holding that keeps 5642 and 5660 in play. If 5619 fails, looking for a dip to 5604 and 5598.
ES (S&P 500 Futures) continue with the UptrendOn ES (S&P 500 Futures) , it's nice to see a strong buying reaction at the price 5570.
There's a significant accumulation of contracts in this area, indicating strong buyer interest. I believe that buyers who entered at this level will defend their long positions. If the price returns to this area, strong buyers will likely push the market up again.
The S/R zone from the past and high volume cluster are the main reasons for my decision to go long on this trade.
Happy trading
Trader Dale
SPX Sep 16 Price Targets Using StatisticsPre Market Analysis for Sep 16'th using Statistics and Data to drive a 70%+ historical accuracy with all analysis methods.
ICT Trader using ICT Stats.
Topics:
- Yesterday's Results
- Today's Projections
Combined US Indexes - Bullish Flip?Previously though that there would be some volatility and a bearish trend forming with a previous low revisited, BUT NO... volatility popped and then so did the indexes. They bounced to meet the trendline resistance to end the week. In the same effort, closed the Gap as well. Meanwhile, MACD and VolDiv are turning upwards in support.
Current flip to Bullish
Confirms with breakout of trendline (after Gap closure)
Watch these week's price action...
SP500**SP500:**
This week, the price is expected to fall after touching the engulfing formed last week.
$MES1! 4hr AnalysisWhat's up ya'll?!
Based on what I'm seeing, the Micro E-mini S&P 500 Index Future ( CME_MINI:MES1! ) on the 4hr is in a consolidation zone between 5,592.50 and 5,661 (68.5 ticks).
I have marked the chart with a bearish Fibonacci retracement from ATH on Jul 16th to the low on Aug 5th.
If price goes below 5,619 (mid-point of previous day ), then there is a possibility price will run back down to the 0.786 mark at 5,592.50 (26.5 ticks).
If price surpasses the heavy resistance at around the 0.9 bearish Fibonacci (5,661) then next price target is all-time highs at 5,721.25.
A lot will be based on the economic and financial news this week.
Diamond Top formation still in effectwe are in an EWT Diamon d Top formation in every indices, every stock, bitcoin , and gold have all had similar diamond tops i feel the recession is finally here, FED be damned. They always cause the problems.
all the FOMC does is screw up the market
everything has had a diamond top, prepare for the bear blizzard
This crazy rally reminds me of Custers last stand
s&p in expanding formation, likely a higher high incominghey.
s&p is creating a lower low, then as buyers surpassed the previous low, buyers proved themselves, they likely will go to the previous high and create a higher high as price 'breathes'
how high? i dont know, breakeven at previous high and attempt a 1:4
look at this chart on 5m timeframe , then divergences will make sense as confluences,
we dont care about h bear, its uptrend so we can ignore that, we like the bullish ones
#202438 - priceactiontds - weekly update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
sp500: Neutral. Big triangle on the daily chart and we are 40 points below the previous big resistance. Resistance is just that until clearly broken. Sideways movement between 5400 - 5670 is more likely than a new ath above 5721. If bulls break above 5670, a new ath becomes more likely and bellow 5550 I think the bears are favored again, at least for 5400.
Quote from last week:
comment: Strong bearish momentum is what we got with the bearish engulfing candle on Monday and market never looked back. 50% pullback is almost exactly at Friday’s close and if we get a pullback before 5200, it will be here. What are the chances? No idea, so every time that is so, it’s 50/50. Absolutely favoring the bears to continue down to 5200, with or without pullback. So if we get one, I will load on swing shorts.
comment: Favored the bears last week and wanted to load on shorts on this pullback but bears were practically gone, so no shorts for me. Lower highs and higher lows. Triangle on the daily chart until broken. Not much difference to the other indexes. Above 5670 bulls are favored for 5700+ and maybe a new ath and bears would need a strong reversal below 5650 for bulls to cover their longs again. Similar to 2024-09-03 where bears printed a huge bearish engulfing bar, that is that they would need here as well.
current market cycle: trading range (triangle)
key levels: 5400 - 5700
bull case: Traps on both sides and 5630 is a very good place to trap bulls again, like they did 2 weeks ago. Not much more to say other what I wrote in my comment. Bulls are slightly favored here until bears come around again but buying above 5600 right now is a bad trade, no matter how you put it. If bulls get follow through on Monday, I join them but no earlier.
Invalidation is below 5500.
bear case: Bears need to keep this a lower high or probably face a new ath test. Since bulls printed a 5 bar micro channel last week, bears have no good arguments until they print a bear bar on the daily chart. Market is undecided and erratic, don’t overstay your welcome to either side. If we see 5700+ next week, I will think deeply about when and where to short. Last time we hit 5700, market spent 5 days around that price before turning down hard for 10%.
Invalidation is above 5670.
outlook last week:
short term: Full bear mode and yet we could get a 100+ point pullback. So shorting 5419 is not advisable as of now. Wait for bears to come around again. If bulls can get to 5500 again, look for a reversal and then you could load up on shorts. I do think it’s more likely that we will make high lows instead of lower lows and form a triangle.
→ Last Sunday we traded 5419 and now we are at 5629. I warned against being bearish at the lows and wait for a pullback. Pullback was way stronger than expected so meh outlook.
short term : Neutral between 5400 - 5670. I slightly favor the bears when they print a good bear bar on Monday because of the triangle. Above 5670 I scalp long and see how high we can get.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-01: Very much like my outlook in dax. Trading range on the daily chart and we are at the highs. We could make higher ones or not. Does not matter much. I expect 5000 to be hit again in 2024.
current swing trade: None.
chart update: Removed the ABC correction and added the bull wedge.
Possible Massive WhipSaw Twice More into EOY.Certainly, if a new high is made whatsoever, I would say we're going to the moon. But this last rally sucks. It was highly irregular, felt like day trader covering, and had no real commitment.
If you take the last two lowest points on the long term, and you create this channel on it with the high. You get this channel and I made some subfibs also. We've already double tested that trend line, but if you are shorts, that is the exact line you'd need to break to go into recession.
In my limited experience, when a second break out happens like it did in Oct 23, and you skip over some of the first small fibs to make this run on weak squeezes, you could trigger a slow moving violent dip that shows MACD (Linda's modified) getting stronger and more bullish even as price takes huge dips. I'll be watching this divergence. And I think it will take it right back to the last 23% sub fib of the last zone of this channel. I mean, right to the brink before we see the greatest covering of all time.
I expect some wild stuff on this contract change since the next contract over is trading 50-60 pts above our current one. I bet we have to drop hard into that contract change, and then we gap up but still in down trend and we enter into this next of 3 dives.
I will be doing my best to not trade the middle of these trends, because you have zero idea how price action will move. If in fact it does honor these levels, and I get a short or long at the right pivot, I'll just hold small contract size hoping to accumulate my account for the final high risk high reward finish to this thing.
Psycho Market.
SPX Weekly Recap | Price Targets Sep 16 - 20Weekly Recap video on last week's stock market price action. then we wrap up the video with our new price targets for next week (Sep 16 - 20) using Statistics and Data to drive a 70%+ historical accuracy.
Topics:
- Last week's Results
- Next week's Targets
Personally I use these targets in combination with ICT Concepts to trade.
Nothing I say is Financial Advice - Previous performance does not guarantee future success.
Clean close on FridayIt was a clean close on Friday in the S&P 500. What I mean by this is a close near the high of Friday's trading which is a sign that buyers are willing to hold this position into the weekend. The expectation would be new highs on Monday but not a large move as the market positions itself for the fundamental data coming out later in the week.
ES - There's Not A Lot Of Meat On The Bone I fancy the chances of $5,375 later on next week.
Unfinished business @ the HTF volume imbalance.
