The stage is setThe stage is set in the S&P 500 daily chart for a potential kick in volatility on Friday as we go into the weekend. Even though we've had a down day on Thursday, the potential for a rally is set up.
MES1! trade ideas
ES UpdateSo MFI hit oversold this morning as the gap filled, so I figured we'd get a bounce....
but it looks like hedge funds sold off every algo pump and MFI totally flatlined at the bottom.
How do I know hedge funds were liquidating? Crap like FCEL went green because they close their short positions when they close their long positions.
Yeah, I got a little stupid and lost some money today, I tried to warn my followers in my comments not to go long today, sure enough market sold off EOD.
I think it's time to do chart pattern short plays. Will let you know if I see anything good.
Daily Trade Recap based on VX Algo SystemEOD accountability report: +$786.25
Sleep: :ok: Overall health: Day 1 of fasting, edgy as f
I finally got to test Caffeine and lions mane on an empty stomach and it was crazy, really sharp focus but jumpy as well.
We started the day off pretty scary, Huge drop to 5720 and instant recovery to the top. Traded a bit on one of my APEX evals that renewed today but
Didn't really touch the funded account until 11:20 when we hit the 48m resistance and got a 10m signal.
Overall day was pretty decent, 10m and 5 m chart worked really well.
Daily Trade Recap based on VX Algo System
9:50 AM VXAlgo ES 10M Buy signal 2x
11:10 AM VXAlgo ES 10M Sell Signal 2x
12:24 PM Market Structure flipped bearish on VX Algo X3!
The uncertainty of the economic impact of tariffsThe S&P 500 daily chart on Wednesday reflected uncertain economic impact of the new announcements on tariffs. The economic impact is unknown but we know stock markets hate uncertainty. The issue now is after is the downward absorption of the new tariffs will the market get cheap enough to become attractive to buyers.
ES Update1) My apologies for getting the PCE release date wrong, it's Friday, not today. Still made money on my XLF calls plus AAPL also went up this morning.
2) There's a small open gap on ES, RTY, and YM from the one hour break after market close. It looks like it might fill overnight. Make sure you check tomorrow morning.
3) The gap below is still open, and it looks like 3hr MFI and RSI want to hit oversold tomorrow.
4) Sorry for not checking the news, I can barely even make trades on my phone while at work. Had I known today was auto tariff day, I would have played things differently.
Personally, I think PCE numbers are a moo point (my Friends will get the joke) because auto tariffs will drive inflation up, but there's bound to be a bounce when MFI and RSI get oversold. If I decide to go long tomorrow, it'll probably just be a handful of XLF calls again.
XLF will probably dip tomorrow because higher auto prices means fewer auto loans and higher inflation this summer. Market will still go up Friday if indicators get oversold, so it's just a quick play, not an investment.
At this point, all I can recommend is that you keep an eye on the 3 hr indicators, seems to be working well. Also, XLF and AAPL completed intraday patterns from yesterday, so there is that too.
ES Melt upLook at the MFI, it's pegged. I guess we get a melt up, at least until tomorrow's PCE numbers. Maybe even into next Monday.
Anyways, I woke up, called in sick, and re-entered my AAPL trade this morning, I figured with TSLA's bad news they'd have to pump AAPL instead to get the market green, and they did. Plus XLF gapped up too much, though I suppose I could have bought that too when it went red on the gap close. Gonna just hold the AAPL calls as my PCE trade for tomorrow morning.
Expecting a slight kick up EOD because of PCE bets. Until then probably just a sideways whipsaw
S&P 500 – Corrective Structure in Progress
Everything is unfolding as planned for TVC:SPX AMEX:SPY OANDA:SPX500USD : after a completed impulse to the downside, we're seeing a complex WXY correction, with wave (y)potentially ending around the 0.618 retracement level and the MA20w.
Currently, wave B of the second leg is developing. Once it's complete, we may see a final push upward before a larger wave C to the downside.
⚠️ Key area to watch: 5780–5840 CME_MINI:ES1! zone for potential exhaustion.
Daily Trade Recap based on VX Algo SystemEOD accountability report: +$790
Sleep: Great Overall health: :check:
Overall pretty decent trading day, spotted long term sell signals on market across the board this morning pre market so I was expecting thing to be bearish and drop. It played out as expected and helped with the trades today as thing went according to plan most of the time.
I did expect a V shape recovery at some point but that didnt happen.
Daily Trade Recap based on VX Algo System
10:36 AM VXAlgo NQ 10M Buy Signal,( didn't work that well)
1:30PM 10min MOB bounce :check:
2:09 PM VXAlgo ES 10M Buy signal + 10min MOB (Double Signal) :check:
3:36 PM VXAlgo NQ 48M Buy Signal :check:
TRADE IDEAS: ES FUTURES (ESM2025) – 3/26/2025 PLAYBOOK# 📊 TRADE IDEAS: ES FUTURES (ESM2025) – 3/26/2025 PLAYBOOK
## 🟢 SCENARIO 1 (BULLISH)
**DIRECTION:** Long
**STRUCTURE BIAS:** Bullish
**ENTRY LEVEL:** 5,795-5,815 (current zone, buying sell-side liquidity raids)
**STOP LEVEL:** 5,785 (invalidate if hourly close below this level)
**TARGET LEVELS:**
- **Target 1:** 5,880-5900 (Weekly Key High Resistance Level)
**R/R RATIO:** ~3:1 (depending on final execution)
### EXECUTION STRATEGY
- **Entry Confirmation:** Look for price to raid previous unhit weekly lows (sell-side liquidity)
- **Long Entries:** Establish long positions as price successfully raids these lows but fails to sustain below them
- **Stop Placement:** Use 5,785 as a hard stop (hourly close below invalidates the trade idea)
- **Target:** Take profits at 5880 - 5,900 (Weekly Key High Resistance)
### KEY POINTS
- Current price action targeting sell-side liquidity in the form of previous unhit weekly lows
- Wednesday typically not a low/high of week formation day, suggesting potential for continued movement
- Tomorrow's High Impact News Event (GDP at 8:30 AM) likely to create volatility and could accelerate the move
- Bullish structure prevails as long as price maintains above liquidity raid zones
---
## 🔴 SCENARIO 2 (BEARISH)
**DIRECTION:** Short
**STRUCTURE BIAS:** Bearish after bullish extension
**ENTRY LEVEL:** 5,880-5910 (Weekly Key High Resistance Level)
**STOP LEVEL:** 5,9550 (invalidate if hourly close above this level)
**TARGET LEVELS:**
- **Target 1:** 5,740 (Weekly Opening Gap upper boundary)
**R/R RATIO:** ~3:1 (depending on final execution)
### EXECUTION STRATEGY
- **No Immediate Short:** Wait for price to extend to Weekly Key High Resistance Level (blue line ~5,900)
- **Rejection Confirmation:** Look for reversal candles and selling pressure at resistance
- **Short Entries:** Establish short positions once price trades below confirmation level after testing resistance
- **Stop Placement:** Use 5,925-5950 as a hard stop (hourly close above invalidates the trade idea)
- **Scaling Out:** Partial profit near 5,800, hold remaining for potential move to 5,745 area
### KEY POINTS
- After liquidity is taken at the Weekly Key High Resistance (blue line), expect manipulation and reversal
- Short opportunity emerges only after bulls exhaust momentum at key resistance
- Weekly Opening Gap (red zone) remains a significant downside target for next move
- Any sustained hourly close above 5,965 **invalidates** this bearish setup
## MARKET BIAS
- **SHORT TERM (Today – 1 Day):**
- **Bullish** bias as price is likely to find support at current levels and move toward the Weekly Key High Resistance
- Current price action suggests accumulation before a move higher
- Tomorrow's GDP numbers (8:30 AM) represent a potential catalyst for accelerated movement
- **LONGER TERM (1–2 Weeks):**
- After testing the Weekly Key High Resistance level (~5,900), expect a reversal and move back toward the Weekly Opening Gap (red zone)
- Market structure suggests a "liquidity hunt" pattern – first to the upside, then reversing to the downside
- Major liquidity draw currently at the blue line, once exhausted, focus will shift back to the Weekly Opening Gap
$SP500 $SPX Is the bull run over?#SP500 SP:SPX S&P500
Is this just a bull-run retracement or the beginning of a bigger crash?
Is the bull run over?
Every major crash started with an “innocent” 10–15% pullback. 🧐
It’s difficult to draw any conclusions right now, but once the current bounce is over, the next retracement will give us more clues. ⏳👀
Are you bullish or bearish? 🐂 🐻
Daily Trade Recap based on VX Algo SystemEOD accountability report: +$760
Sleep: Bad Overall health: drained
Daily Trade Recap based on VX Algo System
9:50 AM VXAlgo ES 48M Sell Signal ( didn't work that well)
10:10 AM VXAlgo ES 10M Buy signal (Double Signal) :check:
12:47 PM VXAlgo ES 10M Buy signal (Double Signal) :check:
3:30PM doji trade + expecting 48m to flip up
Market stalled a it today as expected because we ran up a lot yesterday,
We did go a bit higher but not much up from yesterday's high.
Overall decent range day if you trade the 1 min MOB.
Spy PathI can see SPY moving this way—a potential relief rally off the unmitigated order block from September that caused the imbalance and the macro Break of Structure (BoS). We've already taken out some key sell-side liquidity at the Equal Lows from October/November (EQL), so there's no immediate need to keep chasing more sell-side liquidity.
If an aggressive buyer steps in, I could see price pushing back up through the Bullish Order Block, retesting the Equal High (EQH) I marked earlier, which would tap into buy-side liquidity. From there, it could reach the bearish order block that caused the imbalance, triggering the Change of Character (CHoCH), and then reverse lower, as it looks we are now in bearish order flow for the timeframe.
25 March 2025S&P continue to rise as trump likely to ease reciprocal US tariffs against some sectors on April 2 which boost investors confidence.
EURUSD, DXY, GOLD & SP500 Daily Trade SetupsIn this update wee review the recent price action in the EURUSD, DXY, Gold and the SP500 futures and identify the next high probability trading setups and price targets. To review today's video analysis click here!
ES, Q2 25 - Path to RecoveryCME_MINI:ES1! swept the major liquidity resting below the Sep 24 low and is already starting to show signs of a reversal.
Price could just keep pushing higher, but with a Volume Imbalance, IFVG, and Wickless Candle all lining up in the same zone, it’s a high-probability area for a retracement before any continuation.
From there, I’m expecting a brief accumulation around the weekly FVG, which also aligns with the equilibrium (50%) of this entire leg down.
After that, I’m looking for a break through the weekly FVG, a retracement back into it, then a move higher into the Daily FVG. Another small retracement from there and finally, a push up into the Feb 25 High.
A strong reversal from the weekly FVG would invalidate this scenario and could potentially slow down the recovery.
EWTSU ES1! minuette ii downside to be confirmed
Elliott Wave Trade Set Up
minuette ii downside to be confirmed
price reached strong resistence area 5810/5890
ICHIMOKU shows a buy mood in H4 - BUT kijun sen daily - 5831
EW - pull back looks corrective - abc zigzag - subminuette ii possible extention
FIB levels - 5810/5890
Volume profile - POC still remains in the upper side of the graph
monitoring development
Price climbing with Volume warningsPrice climbed after the bullish headsup we had on Friday
Strong bullish signs:
Strong close with little selling at the top
Closing above LT MA's and daily previous high
Bearish: Volume is not picking up - hint that this is an up reaction but the trend is still down, be careful with longs at this point
Calming of the marketThe S&P 500 futures market daily chart reflects the anticipatory attitude of the market that the tariffs will not launch a trade for because of a more targeted Washington approach to tariffs. The expectation for tomorrow is an update but not another dramatic day higher,
ES UpdateMFI bounced even though it did not quite hit oversold, so I bought some AAPL calls and QQQ ETF for my retirement account before the late afternoon pop.
Market gapped down but held it's own the last 2 days, that makes me bullish for next week. Maybe the gap fill is still valid, we'll find out next week.
ES Update - Gap AlertSo this time the market gapped up, lol by like 22 points so that's pretty big. My assumption here is that the market fills the upper gap RSI and/or MFI go overbought and it cycles back down before next Wed's tariff announcements.
PCE gets announced Wed so not shorting anything before then even if MFI and RSI get overbought.
Will post a comment when I see it go overbought, no time to post during the day.
BTW: For people who don't understand what I'm talking about, futures gaps almost always fill, it's not the same as daily indices. If you don't believe me, just go look for opens gaps in the past.
Also, I prefer 3hr charts on US index futures, has worked well in the past.
Daily Trade Recap based on VX Algo SystemEOD accountability report: +$650
Sleep: 🆗 Overall health: feeling drained today.
Health wise, Feeling really tired today, might need to really add red light therapy to my morning process.
Daily Trade Recap based on VX Algo System
11:39 AM VXAlgo NQ 48M Sell Signal (took mes but got stopped out)
12:26 PM VXAlgo ES 48M Sell Signal +NQ 48 sell (made money)
1:30 PM VXAlgo ES 10M Buy signal (avg down at support & made money)
In regards to the market today, we broke over the 48 min resistance yesterday night when market opened and it pushed us into bullish zone,
naturally when market is in bullish zones, it can push hard so you just have to sit back and watch if you missed the entry.
Which was what I did and just waited until we get a sell signal.
Leg down on on ES coming 1H time frame Y wave is coming near the end. after Y wave we should do one more leg down to finish WXY Daily time frame combo.
i have options data confirming resistance is in the green zone so no trade in the green zone.
