ES - There is a possibility of ES going lower before heading UPThere is a possibility of ES going lower before heading up!!!
MES1! trade ideas
ES/SPX Level and Targets sept. 10thOn Sunday, buyers reclaiming 5414 triggered longs and kicked off a small relief rally for ES, which is still going. My targets were 5478 and 5492, and we’ve already hit 5491 twice. Now, we’re chopping around.
As of now: Expecting chop between 5491-5458 with 5473 as the midpivot. Holding above keeps 5492, 5502, and 5511+ in play. If 5458 breaks, looking for a dip to 5440.
ES Overnight Price action REview 9-10-24Going over the Overnight SEssion Price Action ES looking for clues as to what the market is telling us. putting together a plan how to trade the day. always manage risk look for A+ setups and Execute! Execute! Execute!
SPX. High Leverage Scalp Opportunity. Trend exhaustedAs price moves in one direction, volume increases until the trend is about 80% complete. Then price will still move in the same direction while volume dips down to show exhaustion
ES Potential Inverse Head & ShouldersI've obviously been bearish lately and most of my ideas are for shorting. I don't do this on purpose, it's just what I see right now. Here's a bullish angle, ES may have bottomed there at 5400 while creating a right shoulder before a bigger leg up.
It's also possible we see the real right shoulder be put in later on, because it would be a lot cleaner if the shoulders lined up evenly. However, it's common to have a slanted pattern like this one, so the neckline could be important support/resistance as well.
Rest dayAfter Monday's rally in the S&P 500, the expectation is that Tuesday will be a rest day as the market prepares for data coming out the rest of the week.
ES - Possibly heading higherPossibly another late day moves.. I am not participating at this time of the day, but looks like it's winding up to go higher without me!!!
There might be a stopping point for tomorrow around 5560-5570 level, before heading higher to 5650 !!
Fractal Consolidations as great confluationPrice swept Equal Lows which were LRLR and I target M15 FVG simple setup.
2024-09-09 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
Indexes - Green across the board. On the daily charts it’s mostly a small to normal bullish inside bar, so nothing to get excited about yet for the bulls. Tomorrow will be very important for the bears. If they fail to test the lows again or stop the pullback, many bears could give up and let the bulls test the highs again. In my weekly outlook I wrote that the 4h ema is currently the most important one and almost all markets respected it and closed below. Will look for early weakness and want to short for retest of the Friday lows.
sp500 e-mini futures
comment: Triangle is valid so far. Big red box is the open bear gap on the daily chart. 5500 would be a very good place for the bears to step in and make it resistance. I expect 5462 to be tested tomorrow and hopefully 5400 also. Odds favor the bears as long as we stay below 5540.
current market cycle: trading range - if we drop below 5390, we are in a bear trend inside the big trading range.
key levels: 5400 -5540
bull case: Bulls had a decent pullback today but it was still an inside bar. They need follow through and prices above 5540 to make more bears cover their shorts. Bulls had 3 good legs up today but bears were equally strong. Most of the move upwards was during the Globex session. Until bulls break strongly above 5500, they don’t have many arguments on their side.
Invalidation is below 5460.
bear case: Bears sold the rips today and kept the market mostly in balance around the open price 5462. They need to step in to keep the market below the current bear trend line and the 4h ema. Since we have formed a triangle, market is in balance between 5450-5500. The higher time frames support the bears for a second leg down. For tomorrow I expect the triangle to continue some more until we get a breakout and odds favor the bears. I think 5500 is a decent place to short with SL 5540 or 5560.
Invalidation is above 5540.
short term: Bearish as long as we stay below 5540. I want at least a retest of the lows 5400 but I hope for a bigger second leg down to 5000/5100.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-01: Very much like my outlook in dax. Trading range on the daily chart and we are at the highs. We could make higher ones or not. Does not matter much. I expect 5000 to be hit again in 2024.
current swing trade: Not yet. Will watch tomorrow’s price action and short on weakness.
trade of the day: Longing 5450 was good all day and shorting above 5480. Looks way easier on the 15m tf than it was. Almost always is.
ES levels and targets sept. 9thSellers were in control all day Friday in ES, and i mentioned that the selling wont stop until a resistance reclaims . At 4:30PM, we got one last sell from 5414 to 5393, but reclaimed 5414 last night and now longs are up +40 points from that point
As of now: Ride runners if you have them. 5439-42 is support. Holding that keeps 5474-78 and 5492 in play. If we dip below 5439, I’m watching for a move back to 5414.
S&P 9.9.2024 LONGThis is the trade I took last night and I scaled in. Scaled out and have a runner on.
ES Price action REview from Sunday NIght Open 9-9-24Going over the Overnight Price Action looking for clues as to how the market wants to trade and putting a plan together for the morning session.
SPX Price Projections for Monday | Sep 9Friday's PA Review and Price projection's results
Monday's Price Projections and market analysis
SP:SPX NYSE:ES SEED_ALEXDRAYM_SHORTINTEREST2:NQ
SP500**SP500:**
This week, the price is expected to rise to the key level at 5642.00 for a trend reversal.
ES (S&P 500 Futures) Day Trading analysisOn ES (S&P 500 Futures) , it's nice to see a strong sell-off from the price of 5509. It's also encouraging to observe a strong volume area where a lot of contracts are accumulated.
I believe that sellers from this area will defend their short positions. When the price returns to this area, strong sellers will push the market down again.
The downtrend combined with the strong volume area along with the strong S/R area from the past are my main reasons for this short trade.
Happy trading,
Dale
#202437 - priceactiontds - weekly update - sp500 e-mini futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
sp500: Full bear mode. Market closes exactly at the 50% pullback price 5420 and we could see some sideways movement before more downside. Any pullback should stay below 5535. 0 Doubt in my mind that we see 5000 in 2024.
Quote from last week:
comment : Are we that much smarter than last Sunday after past week’s price action? I don’t think so. Still a lower high. Bulls closed the month extremely bullish but we are at previous resistance. Can’t be anything but neutral. Clear invalidation prices though. Above 5670 it’s bullish for ath retest 5721 or higher high. Below 5550 bears can generate momentum and convince bulls this was just a climactic retest of the highs and we go down again. Bulls still do have better arguments than the bears as long as they stay above the daily ema at 5565.
comment : Strong bearish momentum is what we got with the bearish engulfing candle on Monday and market never looked back. 50% pullback is almost exactly at Friday’s close and if we get a pullback before 5200, it will be here. What are the chances? No idea, so every time that is so, it’s 50/50. Absolutely favoring the bears to continue down to 5200, with or without pullback. So if we get one, I will load on swing shorts.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 5000-5700
bull case: Bulls best chance for a pullback is right here at 5420 which is the 50% retracement and close to the weekly 20ema. I do not think after a 10%+ rally, that they will fight the bears to keep it above 5400. Market is erratic to say the least. Best bulls can hope for on Monday is sideways movement and stopping the bears from printing lower lows.
Invalidation is below 5390.
bear case: Bears stepped aside completely on the move up but came back big time on Monday. Why did they short it on Monday? That is never important and ever a question you should try to answer because you simply can not and will not know. Ever. That is the inherent beauty of the markets if they are big enough. Too many participants to determine such useless thoughts. The height of the bars tells you that there is very strong selling going on because people want out.
Invalidation is above 5540.
outlook last week:
short term: Neutral again. No interest in bigger buying above 5600. Will scalp long if bulls make it clear that they want a new ath but mostly looking for signs of bear strength over the next week. Bulls closed above 5660 so it’s a buy signal going into next week but my outlook has not changed. I wait for bears to come around and will only scalp longs.
→ Last Sunday we traded 5661 and now we are at 5419. I let you decide the value of the given outlook last Sunday.
short term: Full bear mode and yet we could get a 100+ point pullback. So shorting 5419 is not advisable as of now. Wait for bears to come around again. If bulls can get to 5500 again, look for a reversal and then you could load up on shorts. I do think it’s more likely that we will make high lows instead of lower lows and form a triangle.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-01: Very much like my outlook in dax. Trading range on the daily chart and we are at the highs. We could make higher ones or not. Does not matter much. I expect 5000 to be hit again in 2024.
current swing trade: None.
chart update: Big ABC correction was good so far. Let’s see how low we can go.
S&P 500 Weekly AnalysisHere's my thoughts on the S&P 500 moving into the new week. I go over some bullish and bearish scenarios along with a longer term outlook. The levels I discuss are the most important things to me for determining the shorter term action ahead. Things are looking quite bearish after last week, but we've seen that before. I'll be watching the August and April lows closely.
$SPX & $NQ Recession AlertBased 100% on the charts I believe we have begun a bear market. I provide several charts supporting my claim and time will tell if I am right or wrong. I provide a clear target and invalidation point.
Nothing I am saying is financial advice and this is all my opinion. You will lose your money following others opinions.
I have opened $2500 worth of calls on NASDAQ:SQQQ & AMEX:SPXU
NQ SHORT - Bearish Momentum - Mild Recession in PlayCME_MINI:NQ1! CME_MINI:ES1!
Key Notes:
Daily and Below, follow the 200 EMA and positive or negative MACD
Weekly and Above, follow the 50 EMA and positive or negative MACD.
Don't overcomplicate it with 1000 technicals.
NQ moves between a 500 pt price block (average in a week, but can move more as we saw last week).
ES moves between a 100 pt price block (average).
NKD (Japanese) moves between a 1000 pt price block (average).
Take these levels as significant levels for longs/shorts.
HIT me up with any questions for more methodology or anything. Hard to fit everything in a 20 minute video.
Rising Wedge Patter Time For CorrectionSince covid a rising wedge pattern has formed. IMHO its time for the long overdue correction! What do you guys think?
Weekly $ES Analysis | Sep 9-13Last week's price action
This Weeks Price Projections
High Time Frame Analysis & Bias
NYSE:ES SEED_ALEXDRAYM_SHORTINTEREST2:NQ
There may be a rebound, and then pull back by half.The market index may rebound first, and then continue to decline and pull back next week. The pullback is 50% of the previous wave.
The total trading volume in the downtrend wave is greater than that in the uptrend wave. There is a high probability of a second leg of decline.
