MES Short 11/4/2024MES is in a downtrend in 4hr chart. Placed a short position in confluence HV SZ (the lowest SZ). Risk= $200. Target= 1:1 and 3:1.
MES1! trade ideas
Buyers hold on going into the weekendBuyers held positions going into the weekend in the S&P 500 on Friday. This maintains a positive outlook going into next week. Be cautious about the smaller bodies on the candle charts it implies a loss of momentum but not necessarily a dramatic move to the downside.
S&P500: All time high! But sighs of weakness appearing?Calling tops or bottoms is always dangerous.
But since this is just an analysis, there's no harm :)
The Daily is a green doji candlestick. Not the weakest.
However, the 4H is a red doji candlestick.
So, we should see price coming back down as of the next 4H candlestick...even if it's small bodied since it's Asia trading hours.
If price continues to go higher and break above 6030, then clearly the bulls are not with it yet. But I think it should retrace to 6,000 area at the least.
Still think the 5,900 area is a stronger support, but we shall see if it does come back down or not.
3 Key Support Levels on S&P 500 Futures (ES)On ES (S&P 500 Futures) , it's nice to see a strong buying reaction at the price 5937, 5887.50 and 5804.
There's a significant accumulation of contracts in this area, indicating strong buyer interest. I believe that buyers who entered at this level will defend their long positions. If the price returns to this area, strong buyers will likely push the market up again.
The S/R zone from the past and high volume cluster are the main reasons for my decision to go long on this trade.
Happy trading
Trader Dale
#202444 - priceactiontds - weekly update - sp500 e-mini futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
sp500: Bearish. 5730 was expected support and if bears are strong, 5800 stays resistance now. Expecting more sideways movement before another impulse down. Next target for bears is 5600 and bulls need a daily close above 5800. Thursday’s selling was strong enough for more downside but could also just have been distorted price action since it was end of the month. Friday was disappointing for bears already, which is why I think the selling is not as strong as hoped.
Quote from last week:
comment: Another disappointing week for the bulls. Big question now is the same as for dax and nq, was this the last before a deeper pullback or can we print 6000 before 5700? I don’t know and I am not going to pretend I do. Market is in breakout mode and the triangle has a bit more room to go. We simply need more price action because right now the market is in balance around 5870.
comment: Reasoning here is almost identical to dax and nasdaq. Selling was strong enough for a second leg and a measured move leads down to 5555, which is near the 50% retracement. I won’t repeat the same stuff here what I wrote for dax.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 5700 - 6000
bull case: 6000 remains bulls target but if we get a daily close below 5700, we will likely see 5550 before 6000. If we stay above, we will continue sideways.
Invalidation is below 5700.
bear case: Bears need to keep the pullback shallow and probably below the daily ema 5830. If they manage, their next target is 5670 which is the weekly 20ema and below that is 5555 for the measured move target, 50% retracement and July low.
Invalidation is above 5830.
outlook last week:
short term: Neutral. Bearish below 5820 for 5800, below 5800 we likely see 5730. Bullish above 5860 for 5880+ and above 5930 we will see 6000.
→ Last Sunday we traded 5846 and now we are at 5758. Outlook was ok.
short term: Neutral until we break below 5700. I favor some more sideways movement before the second leg down but it should stay below 5830.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-10-13: Very rough guess for the remaining trading weeks in 2024. Spike up, decent correction (~10%), nasty (blow off top) year end rally if earnings hold in Q4. Don’t trade based on that guess.
current swing trade: None
chart update: Added current valid bear trend lines and a potential bearish wave series down to 5555.
Anticipation tradeThe large move to the upside in the S&P 500 on Wednesday represents the anticipation of what a Trump presidency could mean for the market. His ability to impact the market directly because of policy will not happen until January and that's why I call this an anticipation trade. So, I do not expect the same size of move to occur on Thursday unless the Fed comes out with something that really stimulates the market which I do not think will happen.
2024-11-06 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
sp500 e-mini futures - Same here, 2 daily bars engulfing 2 months price action and market tested the upper bull wedge line for a new ath. We are close enough to 6000 that we can expect it to get hit, everything else would be a huge surprise to me. Can you short 6000? Not blindly, market mostly needs a double top or more at these levels before it gives up on it. If bears get below the 1h 20ema, I start thinking about not being bullish anymore, until then it’s peak euphoria.
comment: Huge day for the bulls, right to or through the upper bull wedge line, depending on how you want to draw it. 6000 is the target and bulls will not stop until we have printed it. Bears can’t seriously expect this to stop before so that is why most of today's price action was bears giving up. We need some time around 6000 to find out how many bulls want to buy that price or if we see an immediate profit taking and reversal down. For now the bull wedge is still alive and the best pattern we have. 6000 would be a bit of an overshoot and those can reverse very fast and they like to test down to the other extreme, which would be 5800ish.
current market cycle: bull wedge
key levels: 5730 - 6000
bull case: Bulls want 6000. Don’t make this more complicated. Market has not touched the 1h 20ema since yesterday’s US open. As long as it is not broken, only look for longs until we hit 6000.
Invalidation is below 5730.
bear case : Bears don’t have much. Complete giveup from since yesterday and they will try again at 6000. If they somehow manage to print a decent 1h bear bar below the 20ema tomorrow, their case would get better. For now they don’t have one.
Invalidation is above 6050.
short term: Max bullish for 6000 as long as 1h 20ema holds.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-10-13 : Very rough guess for the remaining trading weeks in 2024. Spike up, decent correction (~10%), nasty (blow off top) year end rally if earnings hold in Q4. Don’t trade based on that guess.
current swing trade: Nope
trade of the day: Buy anwhere.
$ES_F (Emini Futures) Wedge Breakdwon$ES_F (Emini futures) recently broke a strong bullish wedge support selling extremely strong, since then it’s been holding the 23.6% retracement, now there are 2 scenarios that i’ll be watching the ideal scenario would be a continuation of the breakdown to fill gap which is a target of $5,639.50 and potentially continue lower. The bullish scenario would be to hold retracement and bounce to target the wedge resistance and potentially even break above and continue higher.
#202443 - priceactiontds - weekly update - sp500 e-mini futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
sp500 : Multiple ways to draw triangles and bull wedges on the daily chart. It has room to go more sideways but Friday’s reversal was so strong an market closed at the lows, that I think many bulls have enough reason to be disappointed and will exit once we break below 5800 and then we will likely see 5750 next. Above 5905 I am wrong and this will likely be the leg to 6000.
Quote from last week:
comment: Monday made the 50 points higher and that’s all bulls achieve last week. We had two pause bars on the daily chart with Tuesday and Thursday but that was not enough to put doubt in bulls minds that this rally is over. 6000 is the target and, same as dax, we will likely hit it one way or the other.
comment: Another disappointing week for the bulls. Big question now is the same as for dax and nq, was this the last before a deeper pullback or can we print 6000 before 5700? I don’t know and I am not going to pretend I do. Market is in breakout mode and the triangle has a bit more room to go. We simply need more price action because right now the market is in balance around 5870.
current market cycle: nested bull wedges and a minor triangle from past 2 weeks
key levels: 5800 - 6000
bull case: 6000 is the target. Bulls now tried many times to break above 5930 but continue to fail. Same reasoning as for dax. Can the market find more buyers above 5900 next time we get there or do we have to pull back down to 5730 first? Until we see a daily close below 5800, bulls are still favored, since we are only closing above the daily 20ema.
Invalidation is below 5800.
bear case: Bears are printing weak bear bars and can not close below the daily ema. Pure guesswork as of now, which side will give up first. We will very likely get a bigger move next week, so don’t blow your account until then. If bears move strongly below 5800, 5730 is next and there it’s big decision time if we see 6000 or not.
Invalidation is above 6050.
outlook last week:
short term: Neutral between 5870 - 5930 and bullish above 5930 for 6000.
→ Last Sunday we traded 5906 and now we are at 5846. Most of the week was neutral, and we closed just 60 points lower than last week.
short term: Neutral. Bearish below 5820 for 5800, below 5800 we likely see 5730. Bullish above 5860 for 5880+ and above 5930 we will see 6000.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-10-13: Very rough guess for the remaining trading weeks in 2024. Spike up, decent correction (~10%), nasty (blow off top) year end rally if earnings hold in Q4. Don’t trade based on that guess.
current swing trade: None
chart update: Removed wave count
Average Range Levels Short Market dumped really really harded and I participated in this move!
I entered at 1/3AWR- take first partial at ADR and final Take profit at AWR- I felt this move was coming since when price mooves like this before NFP it tends to do these types of moves.
Signs of MMSM on the 4hDaydreaming on this one. Possible MMSM forming on the 4h.
Want to see a a change in the state of price delivery on ES first to confirm it tho.
I'm gonna really be in love with this idea if we displace below the equal lows on ES.
Until then, I won't marry this.
OK byyyy be safe
Waiting for an excuseThe structure on the daily chart in the S&P 500 implies a market waiting for an excuse for a directional move. The overall structure as we talked about in the video is neutral. The directional bias for the structure is for move lower.
Dramatic moveA dramatic move lower occurred in the Thursday. The expectation is for lower movement towards the 5700 level but not the same drama to the downside that we saw on Thursday.
Seller's returnSellers returned to the S&P 500 on the daily chart. I was looking for an up close on Wednesday but what we found was a skittish market that broke to the downside. Follow through to the downside could be tough because there are strong levels of support for the market to break through.
MES Potential Upside Breakout
With support forming along trend line and upcoming news events, looking for price to break to the upside and potentially re-test highs at 5,900.
#ES_F Day Trading Prep Week 10.27 - 11.01Last Week :
Last week Sunday Globex opened right at the upper Edge with a sell back to VAH. Going into the week being under the Edge and under 900 was our key to see moves back to Value, we saw pushes inside Value Monday RTH and Tuesday Pre Market which were bought up until we built more supply right around VAH which finally gave us a move into Value for the 70 - 50s and 40s targets. We did get enough Volume to make it all the way down to VAL and through towards the lower Edge but ran out of Supply right at the top of Previous Distribution Balance and were able to come back inside Value. We ended the week with another attempt out of VAH which ran out of buying and came back inside Value to take back the whole move which was done during Globex hours to close under the Mean right into the Intraday Range Edge of 41 - 36.
This Week :
Looking at this weeks chart and price location it's not as easy to read as there are lots of possibilities which could happen. We are going into Month end week, have quite a bit of market moving data, supply in Value and above, and covering at and under VAL.
30m , 2h, 4h are in correction mode, 1hr not quite there just yet if we are looking at the MAs.
Daily TF also giving us first signs of correction starting but it's just the first steps which means it might not be ready yet for any bigger continuation lower and at the same time have the Supply in Value and above to possibly go down and fill the buying in around VAL and Under.
Of course IF stronger volume comes in and we see strong acceptance under VAL and are able to push inside or through the lower Edge then that could bring in a bigger change for more downside into lower HTF Range/our Previous Distribution Balance low and lower Value so will be something to keep in mind and watch for.
If we can't stay above 840s - 50s to stay over the Mean of this Value and stay in this 880 - 40 Intraday Range then we will look for pushes into VAL and under, at and under VAL we have to be careful as there could be enough buying/covering to keep us away from the Edge but at the same time not give us big bounces as we have seen before, instead we could distribute around this 840 - 800s area. After failing at the upper Edge with Supply above, lower Edge and even push under it could be a good target/move to see this week but I am just trying to stay away from getting too biased to not push for it but its something to keep in mind.
For us to think higher prices from here again we would need to either hold above 840s and get back over 50 - 60s to stay in 880 - 40s Intraday Range and see pushes towards VAH or consolidate around VAL without accepting under and then push back over Value Mean.
And if buying and selling on both sides of Value is still strong enough then we could continue holding and going back and forth between VAH/VAL.
Overall looking at HTFs it seems like we are ready for a bigger back fill to finally happen in the market but it might take time to play out, if there will be interest I can post a Daily TF Chart which shows the range we broke out of is 5750s - 5400s, a back fill to break out area and IF we get back inside then move towards Mid/lows and under of that range can be in play but again that's HTF Outlook that can take a LONG time to fully play out not for intraday or shorter term swing trading.
ES/SPX levels and targets Nov7thOn Wednesday, buyers triggered longs at 5902, sending us all the way to our 6013 target right to the tick yesterday. Now investors are taking a breather, holding around 6000 for the last 17 hours. I often mention how the day after trend legs are experienced traders’ least favorite days to trade. Longs are risky do to chasing. Shorts are risky due to being against the trend. And because of these two, the chance for chop is VERY high. Keep this in your head today…and after day after rallies.
As of now: Continue holding runners if you have them from yesterday. Expect chop between 6009-5979, with 6000 acting as a mid-pivot point. Levels to watch are 6009-13, and 6035-38 if we push higher. If 5978 breaks, a dip is finally on the table.
ES price action review Overnight session 10-8-24Going over the price action overnight ES and looking for clues as to what the market is telling us. setting up 3 possible game plans for the market but we will not dictate what the market does but rather listen to what the market is telling us. only A+ setups today. no setup no trade end of story. we're not losing $$$ on a Friday. we will add a weekend Focus list review and a new crypto review as we need exposure to all these asset classes regularly.
ES price ACtion REview 11-7-24 RTHGoing over the RTH ES looking for clues as to what the market was telling us. how we could have traded better and where we should have been focused at.
2024-11-07 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
sp500 e-mini futures - Neutral. All bullish targets are met for me and I will not long anything above 5980 anymore. Too early for shorts, wait for bears to come around with force. Blow-off top with 6050 or 6100 is not out of the question, so best to join on momentum or sit on hands. Next big points will be made to the downside.
comment: All my bullish targets are now met and I would not look for longs above 5980. I got one more measured move higher to 6160 but that’s just beyond insane to expect this to be hit. But so was 6000 and here we are. All bubbles burst eventually, so will this.
current market cycle: bull wedge
key levels: 5720 - 6013
bull case: Bulls got 6000 and now want to continue and make this look like a real breakout above the bull wedge to trap many weak traders into longing this above 6000 and make them exit liquidity. At least that’s what I see potentially happening here. No interest in longs up here or looking for arguments for bulls. This is the biggest bubble there ever was. Next big points will be made to the downside.
Invalidation is below 5720.
bear case: Bears still don’t have much. The selling will start once enough bulls begin to take profits. Market is trying again to break above a multi week bull pattern and those rarely succeed. Don’t try to be an early bear and burn your account. This could easily go 50-100 points higher before turning. Measured move down from 6000 to 5730 leads exactly to the September low, where the bull trend line started. If we hit that price in 2024, you read this here first.
Invalidation is above 6050.
short term : Neutral. Scalps only for me until bears come around big time.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-10-13: Very rough guess for the remaining trading weeks in 2024. Spike up, decent correction (~10%), nasty (blow off top) year end rally if earnings hold in Q4. Don’t trade based on that guess.
Update 2024-11-07: Blow-off top happening right now and 6013 could be the end of it, I don’t know. Next comes the correction before bulls try another run at the highs during santa rally.
current swing trade: Nope
trade of the day: Buy anwhere. Again. 1h 20ema not touched since Tuesday. Trends do not get stronger than this.
ES Overnight Price Action REview 10-7-24 FOMC incomingGoing over the price action looking for clues the market is leaving us so we can setup our plan for the day. No trade setups no trades today. always know where you'll get out if you're wrong.
