11/15/24. ES results for dayFinal ES view after sell stops hit. All 3 stops entered, first target hit. Looking for additional targets (below) next week
MES1! trade ideas
Trading Gameplan For Nov 18thPlan for Monday’s Session
Supports:
• Major: 5886-88, 5864, 5843-46, 5828, 5806, 5796-5802, 5758, 5749, 5730.
• Minor: 5892, 5878, 5871, 5855, 5849, 5839, 5819, 5812, 5787, 5782, 5773, 5768.
Context and Strategy:
Friday’s session was a strong downside trend day (open-to-close selling) with limited support reactions. As we often see, sharp sell-offs like Friday are often followed by their counterpart: the short squeeze and the question of whether we’ll recover a significant portion of the decline shouldn't be asked. While the timing of such events is unpredictable (further downside is always possible), they typically happen when a major resistance level is reclaimed, which I’ll cover here. For now, with bears still holding control, any attempts to buy at support levels carry the high risk of trying to catch a falling knife, which i often talk about how risky those are alone. On a strong trend day like Friday when bears are in control, all supports - by definition of being a trend day to the downside - will fail. They may react, they may produce a quick level to level bounce, but typically they will generally all fail. This will remain true on Monday until we recover some major resistances. A failed breakdown of Friday’s low (5878) could spark a potential short squeeze, but once again, unless a significant resistance level is reclaimed, all longs should be treated with high caution.
The next support magnet below Friday’s lows is 5843-46, with 5828 and 5806 as deeper downside levels if selling persists. Patience is key, particularly in a downtrend context like this.
Key Levels:
1. Friday’s Low (5878): Critical for both bulls and bears. Watch for a potential flush below this level, ideally down to 5871, followed by a reclaim that could trigger a short squeeze.
2. 5886-88: Heavily traded on Friday and no longer fresh. Safer to wait for a failed breakdown or another deeper level to engage.
3. 5864: A possible bounce zone but still considered high-risk.
4. 5843-46: Strong support below. If selling accelerates, this level offers better odds for a reaction.
5. 5828 & 5806: Major levels for any extended sell.
Resistances:
• Major: 5907-10, 5945-50, 5961, 5980, 5998-6002, 6009, 6066, 6080-82, 6103, 6131, 6141, 6152.
• Minor: 5899, 5917, 5928, 5934, 5935, 5943, 5947, 5957, 5967, 5972, 5975, 5993, 6014, 6019, 6027, 6032, 6038, 6045, 6050, 6058, 6071, 6092.
Bull Case:
• Bulls need to reclaim 5907-10 to show any meaningful recovery effort. A reclaim here could set up a bounce toward 5948-50 or 5961 for a back-test.
• Ideal setup: A dip to 5871 or below early on, forming a failed breakdown of Friday’s low, followed by basing and a push back above 5907-10. This could trigger an easy short squeeze targeting higher major resistances.
• Without a reclaim of 5961, any upside remains corrective, and the "short the pop" sentiment is still in charge.
Bear Case:
• Bears remain in control and will likely defend resistances near 5907-10 or 5948-50 if price retraces. These are logical zones for fresh shorts to initiate.
• Continuation selling begins with a breakdown below 5878. Watch for traps, as 80% of breakdowns tend to fail. If there’s no meaningful recovery, selling could extend toward 5843-46 or 5828.
• Preferred short entry: A failed bounce near resistance (5948-50 or 5961) or after a structural breakdown below 5878.
Summary for Monday:
• Expect potential bounce attempts to test breakdown zones like 5907-10 or 5948-50, but any upside remains corrective unless bulls reclaim 5961.
• A flush below Friday’s low (5878) may trigger a failed breakdown setup, sparking a short squeeze.
• Below 5878, next support magnets are 5864, 5843-46, and 5828
• Exercise caution with longs; focus on reactions at key levels. Shorts remain favorable until resistance zones are reclaimed.
ES Bear FlagES is sitting smack in the middle of its range. I'm bearish for now but would wait for a break to do anything. A break below would likely lead to a flush back to low of day around 5880 and maybe ever lower. To the upside, watching 5931 for potential resistance.
Can buyers get the job doneBuyers reenter the market on Monday and the S&P 500 daily chart. The challenge is their ability the follow-through or was Monday's price action profit-taking after the break in the S&P 500 market over the last few days. The market bias is for higher prices.
Buyers showing their presence.Buyers in the S&P 500 daily chart showed their resilience in the market on Tuesday. The structure implies follow-through on Wednesday. 5970 is the next objective.
Es levels and targets Nov14thAfter last week’s 330-point rally, ES has been following its usual routine after a big move: consolidation, forming a flag. Resistance/target sits at 6028-32, marking yesterday’s highs, and 6009 support held overnight. Don’t overtrade.
As of now: 6009=support. This level keeps 6032, 6038, and ATHs in play. Breakdown only kicks in if 5996-98 fails.
Profit-taking?Is the selling action on Tuesday in the S&P 500 representing buyers selling to take profits or are new sellers entering the market to drive prices lower before the CPI numbers on Wednesday. The overall structure has a bullish bias with a neutral setting.
AMP Futures - How to create order presets.In this idea we will show you how to create order presets using the Tradingview platform.
ES Major Trend SupportES is threatening to break below the uptrend from early August. It has been respecting this trend pretty well except for the fakeout below in late October. I expect a bounce here, but it's worth noting today was the first close below 6k since ES broke above it. It needs reclaim quickly and hold this uptrend, otherwise we could see another leg down to the 5900 area.
#ES_F Day Trading Prep Week 11.10 - 11.15.24Last Week :
Last week market opened under 5792 - 72 Edge which meant weakness to start the week and gave us moves towards lower VAH but again we kept getting buying at and under Previous Distribution Balance low and inside Value. We knew to be careful and that holding over 730s meant there is no need for larger supply to sell out. 724 was also an important area on Daily TF as it was the bottom of Daily Edge which we broke out of after our roll gap in September, we tested it but there was no break or any continuation under it. We knew if market gets back over 790s that could bring back strength to push back in Previous Value which is what we got on Tuesday leading into Election Results. Election Globex gave a huge move which continued higher towards 930s - 770s ranges Edge, took it out, consolidated and rest of the week we got lower volume grind higher into a new range to finish the week with a failure over new Value.
This Week :
Not easy to trade ATHs especially if we get them every few weeks or months and of course this move could be viewed as strength to bring in more buying that can keep us in this range or even continue grinding higher BUT something to keep in mind as few things are lining up here.
We have made an Edge to Edge push on Daily TF ( reaching big Edge areas more often than not provides reaction in opposite direction ) , we have extended away from Daily MAs with a strong impulse that gave us blow off the top sort of move over our Previous Highs consolidation, we have finished the week with a failed or sort of failed push over VAH since we didn't fully come back in and held over 920s , we didn't reach new ranges top.
Now all this doesn't mean we can't hold and continue balancing/grinding higher towards that Edge top and over still BUT if all this buying over 930s was from all the late buyers/traders who sat on their hands during the election days, came in saw areas holding and were buying for continuation to make money off momentum then they were also probably unloading as it went higher and might not have plans to hold this up long term unless market continues in their favor. If market does not continue in their favor and we get back under VAH / 620s then we could see this thing start moving towards their cost basis, we have Poor Globex low holding one of them up around the Mean of the Range, if that gets taken we will look for continuation towards VAL which has another cost basis and a base below it which could give us covering/holds in that area BUT I would not trust those areas for a longer term position, if market cant keep holding over the Mean/VAL of this range then we could see it come all the way back into lower Edge and maybe even under our Previous Highs to signal a failed new ATH break out. Will this all happen in a week or will it be a slow process is for us to find out, we don't really have market moving data to start the week and if we don't get new buying to keep pushing us then we at least can look for this process to start and see how it goes.
On the other side for this move to stick and to think higher prices from here we would want to see us hold over VAH or at least push back towards the Mean/Hold over and get back over VAH as we need to get over 640s and test the upper Edge with holds inside or right under the Edge after the test, until this happens I will lean more towards a move back inside Value towards VAL and potentially finding our top around here.
Chart you should be interested atThis scenario I shared took time and multiple scenarios from EW
In the end, this is the best scenario
And in my opinion, you could see how the high-risk markets started to pump
That usually happens in the 5th wave of the bigger markets like sp500 etc...
You can call that liquidity sharing
It happens in the 5th to create as much FOMO as possible + bring liquidity to the market
I still hold most of my positions in crypto and some stocks
.
About the analysis I shared
.
The one notice is
It could go more up than the targets
The targets I used are W5=W1
If you use W5=0.618,0.78 of W3
You will get other possible targets
I am not hiding a secret here
Those are kinda basics in EW or Fibo trading but most people forget about it
I am not saying get out of the market I will never say such a thing
What I will say is get ready for the next opportunity
Dont burn your profits
S&P500: Bearish now? MaybeLast Friday I said we might see some retracement today. It didn't happen!
But if price continues to go sideways until market closes, then we have a Daily bearish doji. This is a better reversal candlestick pattern.
However, this just mean we should see some retracement. How much of it remains to be seen. Price needs to break below the 5990 area to see greater retracement.
If it doesn't, then we should see more sideways action for the rest of the week.
For now, I think price is going to chop around the range area.
Slowing downThe smaller bodies on the candles as price moves higher in the S&P 500 is a sign that the S&P 500 is slowing down. It could also be a market getting ready for additional information coming out later this week. I am not looking for a big day down but we do want to be cautious if we are on the long side of this market.
Top 5 Weekly Trade Ideas #2 - ES Demand LongWe got a bearish break on some shorter term timeframes, but I'm still looking for dips to buy until bears prove themselves. Ideally ES would come all the back down to demand and 6,000 for a long. Another potential support area is around 6,020.
I'd prefer the long at 6,000, especially if VX is near resistance at the time. However, a long could work around 6,020 and a short could work if it breaks below 6,000 and fails on a retest.
#202445 - priceactiontds - weekly update - sp500 e-mini futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
sp500 e-mini futures : Bullish. Breakout was strong with follow through and I have a measured move target to 6400+ and a trend line that runs through 6200. Even if we get a pullback, the first one will most likely be bought and we retest 6050. What would the bears need to make this the ultimate bull trap? One giant bear bar that closes below 5850 could do it but how likely is that? It’s absolutely reasonable to not buy into this madness and wait for bears to come around. I would be surprised if we closed 2024 above 6000.
Quote from last week:
comment: Reasoning here is almost identical to dax and nasdaq. Selling was strong enough for a second leg and a measured move leads down to 5555, which is near the 50% retracement. I won’t repeat the same stuff here what I wrote for dax.
comment : Same logic here as for dax. Bears failed to get below 5700 and on Tuesday market went the other direction. Wednesday was certainly a huge bull surprise and we went high enough that it opens even higher targets. The rally lost steam on Thursday/Friday, which could result in a pullback first. I draw the line for bulls around 5850, if we drop below, we might as well go 5800 followed by 5730.
current market cycle: Bull trend
key levels: 5850 - 6050 (above 6050, 6200 comes in play)
bull case: With 6000 my bullish targets were met but this does not look like it’s reversing anytime soon. If bulls keep it above 5850, we are free to go up to 6100/6150. A measured move from last week up gives us 5300 and I even have a measured move target at 6500ish from the August rally but that is obviously very far fetched for now.
Invalidation is below 5850.
bear case: Bears have nothing as of now. The rally last week was strong enough to expect more upside and bears could not trade more than a bar below the 1h 20ema since Tuesday. The best they can hope for is that the bull trend line above us, holds and market does not go much above 6050. My bullish targets were met with 6000 but the market obviously broke strong enough above it. Bears have no decent reason to sell this right now.
Invalidation is above 6100.
outlook last week:
short term: Neutral until we break below 5700. I favor some more sideways movement before the second leg down but it should stay below 5830.
→ Last Sunday we traded 5758 and now we are at 6025. Well, at least I was not bearish.
short term: I want to join the bulls but need a pullback first or a strong momentum break above 6030. Zero bearish thoughts as of now.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-10-13: Very rough guess for the remaining trading weeks in 2024. Spike up, decent correction (~10%), nasty (blow off top) year end rally if earnings hold in Q4. Don’t trade based on that guess.
current swing trade: None
chart update: Removed bear lines, adjusted bull trend line and added bull channel
Buyers hold on going into the weekendBuyers held positions going into the weekend in the S&P 500 on Friday. This maintains a positive outlook going into next week. Be cautious about the smaller bodies on the candle charts it implies a loss of momentum but not necessarily a dramatic move to the downside.
S&P500: All time high! But sighs of weakness appearing?Calling tops or bottoms is always dangerous.
But since this is just an analysis, there's no harm :)
The Daily is a green doji candlestick. Not the weakest.
However, the 4H is a red doji candlestick.
So, we should see price coming back down as of the next 4H candlestick...even if it's small bodied since it's Asia trading hours.
If price continues to go higher and break above 6030, then clearly the bulls are not with it yet. But I think it should retrace to 6,000 area at the least.
Still think the 5,900 area is a stronger support, but we shall see if it does come back down or not.
S&P will grab downside liq. and rally higher, risk 1-3 %we see a downside imbalance and liq sitting at the lows where i put the line as you can see, on a daily we are bullish so we are looking for buys, as well, the buy zone is likely where the price reacts so that would be an extra confluence for us to take a trade. This is a rough analysis we clearly have to see how the market will move as the us session open at 15:30 ( german time ).
20241122 ESI anticipate more upside and reversal to the downside after. The +DOL is NWOG and possible bs raid. Reversal after HI news. With new LOW as -DOL. If PA showes more upside before HI news that will be a good sign for the later downside reversal. PA can go higher than it is anticipated at the moment. This upside move is to seduce the retail into the late longs, their stops will be raided on the move to the downside later. I anticipate that the post-election downside move is not finished and there is more downside to be delivered.
es! to the moon!A Santa Claus rally is the sustained increase in the stock market that occurs around the Christmas holiday on Dec. 25. Most estimate these rallies happen in the week leading up to the Christmas holiday, while others see trends that begin Christmas Day through Jan. 2.
ES Price action review thursday RTH & Overnight 11-22-24Going over the price action from yesterdays RTH session and the overnight session ES looking for clues the market is leaving us and making sure we put time in the film room. only A+ trade setups today. no setup no trade.
2024-11-21 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
sp500 e-mini futures - Neutral below 5990, max bullish above. Bearish only below 5900. I have the close near a bear and a bull trend line, so tough spot for any prediction. I do think after so many attempts by the bears, they have given up and we are now free to do the second round of this blow-off top. Consider me surprised if we continue in my drawn bull channel and bears can get this down 60+ points again.
comment : Daily chart tells you 4 consecutive bull bars on increasing volume. Very high chance tomorrow the bears will give up and we test 6050+ again. The bear trend line could still be valid or not, we will only know tomorrow. Above 5980/5990 we will see an acceleration upwards. On the 1h tf you can make a case for 5980 being at the crossing of bull and bear trend line but we will have an answer tomorrow morning.
current market cycle: bull trend
key levels: 5855 - 6100
bull case: Higher lows and higher highs. Bulls want a retest of the ath and above. I have a measured move target at 6150 and even above 6300. Bulls have all the arguments on their side for a second leg up but to get it, they would have to prevent the market from getting another strong move down to below 5920. It should probably stay above 5950 to trap many bears who sold the highs again.
Invalidation is below 5940ish.
bear case : Bears do not have much tbh. They sold every high the last days but selling is getting weaker and they can only do it so often before they stop and will only try higher again. Best case for bears is to stay below 5990 and do what we did the whole week, sell the highs for at least 60 points.
Invalidation is above 5990.
short term: Bullish. Above 5990 uber bullish for new ath. Neutral below 5950 and below. Only below 5800 I turn bear.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-11-16: So the top definitely qualifies as a blow-off top but the question if we continue further up, is still valid. It is possible that we are already inside the correction and if we continue below 5860, I highly doubt bulls can get above 6000 again. Given the current market structure, I won’t turn bear because the risk of another retest of the highs or even higher ones are just too big.
current swing trade: Nope
trade of the day: Same as dax. Yesterdays’ lows held and longs around 5905 were beyond amazing.
s&p lunchbreak, or major pullback?it doesnt seem like the consolidation in major indices has been destructive in terms of major disruption due to current volatility according to these machine learning and adaptive trend based algorithms. as long as we stay above a rising average we should trend toward the mean of the channel provided there isnt a major destabilizing event geopolitically or otherwise. its looking more and more like a weekly higher low is more or less set, and the index wants to return to around the 6020 level. if we fail to break the day high here, i would look for any daily higher low above tuesdays low for bull continuation.
