MES1! trade ideas
Expect a Retracement... BUT not a Reversal in S&P Hi Trading Community,
Just a quick update on what I expect price action to look like for the ES over the next couple of days.
As you know, I've been bullish on this move — and I still am. However, there is some justification for a potential retracement to key levels. In particular, my attention is on the 5928 area.
It's too early to call this a full reversal, but let’s stay sharp in our trading and continue learning.
#OneCandleStickAtATime
Buy OIL & GOLD, Sell Stocks Indices When Missiles Are Flying!In this Weekly Market Forecast, we will analyze the S&P 500, NASDAQ, DOW JONES, Gold and Silver futures, for the week of June 16-20th.
When missiles start flying in the Middle East, investors become reactively risk averse. Money goes from stocks to safe havens and oil. That's it. Expect oil prices to rise, Gold to reach new highs, and the equity markets to see more sellers than buyers.
This environment may last a few days or a few weeks. Keep an ear to the news.
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
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"Pricing Perfection: The Thin Ice Beneath Record Highs"As markets push to all-time highs, the rally feels less like euphoria and more like walking a tightrope. What happens when the market prices in perfection
The S&P 500 is sitting at all-time highs, not because the world is perfect — but because the market is betting that it will be. This rally is no longer driven by surprises or revisions — it’s driven by expectations that everything will go right: inflation will cool, rates will drop, earnings will beat, AI will deliver, and geopolitical tensions will stay neatly compartmentalized.
In reality, we are walking on thin ice. Beneath the surface lies fragile market breadth, decelerating economic data, and a Fed that continues to speak hawkishly even as liquidity props things up. Any minor deviation from this “Goldilocks” scenario — a hot CPI, a guidance miss from a mega-cap, or a geopolitical headline — has the power to trigger sharp repricing.
When the market prices in perfection, it doesn’t need a bear to show up. It just needs something less than ideal. At these levels, risk becomes asymmetric — all reward is front-loaded, but the pain, if it comes, is unpriced and sudden.
The current equity landscape isn’t just optimistic — it’s priced for flawless execution across earnings, rates, geopolitics, and liquidity.
That leaves asymmetric downside risk if even a minor narrative breaks. Trump has become know for creating larger than minor narratives... ;)
06/27/25 Trade Journal, and ES_F Stock Market analysis 06/27/25 Trade Journal, and ES_F Stock Market analysis
EOD accountability report: +915
Sleep: 6 hours
Overall health: edgy from sleep
** VX Algo System Signals from (9:30am to 2pm) 3/4 success**
9:37 AM VXAlgo ES X1 Buy signal :check:
9:55 AM Market Structure flipped bullish on VX Algo X3! :check:
10:31 AM VXAlgo ES X1 Sell Signal (double sell) iffy
1:43 PM Market Structure flipped bearish on VX Algo X3! :check:
**What’s are some news or takeaway from today?
and What major news or event impacted the market today?
**
Early on in the market, I noticed that there was heavy manipulate by the MM with violent buy and sell. This somewhat warns that today's market could be tough to trade and you have to be very patient.
News
PRES TRUMP: ENDING ALL TRADE TALKS WITH CANADA; WILL TELL CANADA ITS TARIFF LEVEL IN COMING DAYS - around 1 :40pm est
What are the critical support levels to watch?
--> Above 6200= Bullish, Under 6185= Bearish
Video Recaps -->https://www.tradingview.com/u/WallSt007/#published-charts
06/26/25 Trade Journal, and ES_F Stock Market analysis 06/26/25 Trade Journal, and ES_F Stock Market analysis
EOD accountability report: +731.25
Sleep: 5 hours
Overall health: meh
** VX Algo System Signals from (9:30am to 2pm) 3/3 success**
— 9:38 AM Market Structure flipped bullish on VX Algo X3
— 10:30 AM Market Structure flipped bullish on VX Algo X3!
— 11:27 AM VXAlgo ES X1 Sell Signal
What’s are some news or takeaway from today?
and What major news or event impacted the market today?
today was another interesting day, i am noticing that when market structure changes 2x in the same direction, it is usally pretty effective and scammy at the same time
News
*NVIDIA NASDAQ:NVDA SHARES HIT A NEW HIGH TO RECLAIM WORLD'S LARGEST STOCK TITLE - market is being carried by the momentum of mag 7
What are the critical support levels to watch?
--> Above 6175 = Bullish, Under 6155= Bearish
Video Recaps -->https://www.tradingview.com/u/WallSt007/#published-charts
Wait and see market environmentThe structure on Wednesday in the S&P 500 daily chart implies some market that is in a balanced condition and provides a wait and see market environment. It is waiting for additional information to respond to. The biases still for move to the upside. The next objective higher is 6175.
SPX Bullish Breakout: 18% Upside to $7,300The S&P 500 has broken out of an inverse head and shoulders formation, targeting approximately $7,300 within three months. The MACD shows strong bullish momentum with a recent crossover above the signal line. The price is holding above the 21-day EMA, further confirming bullish momentum.
06/24/25 Trade Journal, and ES_F Stock Market analysis EOD accountability report: -717.50
Sleep: 4.5 hours - heat waves in nyc
Overall health: meh
** VX Algo System Signals from (9:30am to 2pm)** 4/4
9:40 AM Market Structure flipped bullish on VX Algo X3! 5 pts
9:42 AM VXAlgo NQ X3 Buy Signal (failed)
11:00 AM Market Structure flipped bullish on VX Algo X3! 20pt
11:58 AM VXAlgo NQ X1 Sell Signal (failed)
What’s one key lesson or takeaway from today?
and What major news or event impacted the market today?
There are days that the algo will lose but you just gotta trust the process and execute accordingly with a stoploss.
What are the critical support levels to watch?
--> Above 6130 = Bullish, Under 6125= Bearish
Video Recaps -->https://www.tradingview.com/u/WallSt007/#published-charts
PREVIEW LONDON SESSION - Tue 24th June 2025 --- LONGWe had one demand filled day.
And I don't see it stopping. We have blown through 100 and 125 projections and I predict 150 will be reached soon. SO, after london open I will be looking for LONG discounts on the 5m/15m charts and targeting 6162.50 (poc strike) that coincides with 150 (PINS OFF) projection.
SHORT @ London Open - Monday June 23rd 2025I believe Sellers are in control of the auctions. I see a nice distribution wall above to launch shorts from. Target the 150 where there seems to be liquidity target making sense of a short trade. ALWAYS wait for Lopen. Demand may come in and take over 6025/Dist Wall. If so there is plenty to like about the LONGS then with liquidity above. How price comes into 6025 at Lopen is what we need to be looking for.
Quo Vadis - "Where we have come to"Here is is a daily bar chart of the MES1! showing where we have come made up from TV Community scripts. (No coding required.) But the question of course is where do we go from here in light of all the current circumstances: Middle East War, Tariff, Interest Rates, etc Will we see a new All Time High in the S & P 500? This chart does not show a reversal yet. I am staying LONG until the market and the chart says something different.
06/18/25 Trade Journal, and ES_F Stock Market analysis
EOD accountability report: +521.25
Sleep: 5 hours (bad sleep)
Overall health: My Ultrahuman Ring is saying I might be getting sick. 9 need to recover sleep and take care of body today and tmr. I think my lack of exercise this week is catching up to me.
**What was my initial plan? **
Looking at things premarket, things looked a bit weak as it was about sell off in the morning with bearish structure and DHC. Went in for a short at 1 min MOB but it didn't react and just broke thru, so flipped to bullish side and took it to the next resistance.
overall plan for the day was to look for chop zones to scalp b4 fomc, but that actually didnt happen until after fomc.
** VX Algo System Signals from (9:30am to 2pm)** 4/5
— 9:50 AM Market Structure flipped bullish on VX Algo X3! :check:
— 10:52 AM VXAlgo ES X1 Sell Signal :check:
— 12:10 PM VXAlgo ES X1 Buy signal (Double signal) :x:
— 12:11 PM Market Structure flipped bearish on VX Algo X3! :check:
— 1:40 PM VXAlgo ES X1 Buy signal (Double signal) :check:
Next day plan--> Above 6015 = Bullish, Under 6005= Bearish