April 15th Trade Journal & Stock Market AnalysisEOD accountability report: +940
Sleep: 8 hour, Overall health: Good
**Daily Trade Recap based on VX Algo System **
9:30 AM Market Structure flipped bullish on VX Algo X3! - easy money
10:10 AM VXAlgo ES X1 Sell Signal - easy money
1:02 PM Market Structure flipped bearish on VX Algo X3! - easy money
1:40 PM VXAlgo ES X1 Buy signal (triple signal) -a bit tuff but still work out
3:30 PM VXAlgo ES X1 Sell Signal (double signal) - a bit tuff but still work out
**Wed plan: ** Watch for 48M support or 195M support to tag around 5200-5300s.
MES1! trade ideas
Neutral zone marketThe structure in the S&P for the last couple days implies a neutral zone market. This means that both buyers and sellers are present with no one group being dominant. The expectation is for a sideways move until we get fundamental information primarily tariff information that will give the market an excuse to rally or break.
April 14th Trade Journal & Market AnalysisApril 14th Trade Journal & Market Analysis
EOD accountability report: +565
Sleep: 6 hour, Overall health: recovering, cant seem to get over 6 hour sleep.
**Daily Trade Recap based on VX Algo System **
9:30 AM VXAlgo ES X1 Sell Signal (triple sell signal)
9:41 AM Market Structure flipped bearish on VX Algo X3
11:02 AM Market Structure flipped bullish on VX Algo X3!
12:20 PM VXAlgo ES X1 Buy signal (Triple buy signal)
2:11 PM Market Structure flipped bullish on VX Algo X3!
3:20 PM VXAlgo ES X1 Sell Signal (triple sell again)
Today traded inside the zone, tested the 10min MA from the other day, held very well and bounced strong.
Bot alerts were on fire today.
Tuesday plan: Look for a backtest to support again on 48 min and push up to the MOB.
April 11th Trade Journal & Market AnalysisApril 11th Trade Journal & Market Analysis
EOD accountability report: +1566.50
Sleep: 6 hour, Overall health: going thru Flu symptoms
**Daily Trade Recap based on VX Algo System **
12:08 PM Market Structure flipped bullish on VX Algo X3!
1:00 PM VXAlgo ES X1 Sell Signal (2x Signal)
Today was a very choppy for the early part of the day, tested pre market lows and almost broke it because of consumer sentiment.
We eventually bounce and started moving upward toward the 5 min and 10 min resistance , and eventually broke out with the market structure flipping bullish at 12:08, we went back for a 1 min MOB backtest and pushed up further.
Monday plan; look for back to support as noted on the video
April 10th Trade Journal & Market AnalysisEOD accountability report: +$3087.50
Sleep: 6 hour, Overall health: going thru Flu symptoms
**Daily Trade Recap based on VX Algo System **
10:27 AM VXAlgo ES X1 Buy signal (double buy signal)
12:30 PM VXAlgo NQ X1 Buy Signal (triple buy signal)
1:45 PM VXAlgo NQ X3 Buy Signal (triple buy signal) + market structure = A+ set up
Took some time off the last few days from trading futures to
re-organize the options account and long term port, got back into trading futures today.
S&P 500 and Bitcoin are bearish. Big dump incoming.We bounced back thanks to Trump's bullish announcements but we're right back up at major resistance and we're moving sideways. With major resistance, you want to see price cut straight through like a laser. You don't want to see price hesitating. A bearish geometric pattern leading up to resistance almost always rejects and retests the lows.
ES/SPY Bottoming Process Gaining More ClarityThe George W Bush pattern still seems to be forming...taking the longer larger and more powerful form. Will the right lower part of the W take place above the lower left side, dead even or below. Certainly sentiment would lead us to believe it will be well below the left side. However, today failed to make a lower low. Selling may resume Sunday night/Monday morning or the double bottom retest may be complete....OR of course we can keep charging significantly lower.
SPY Futures April 2025Trump imposes new tariffs on imports from China, investors panic, and the market chops. A good level to look at on SPY Futures for the next couple weeks is 5528.00. I believe a break upwards can give bullish investors some confidence , while a rejection could bring even more downside. If we break upwards, possibly revisiting 5840.00, we're going to have to see if we can break that level and get back to the all time high. If we reject and price falls, the level to look at is 4833.00. A break of that support could mean a lot more downside in the coming months. But we're going to have to be patient allow Trump vs China to unfold.
ES UpdateTrump is obviously gaming the market, so there's really no point in even looking at charts or indicators, lol. It's hard to take him seriously now.
The gap will fill, maybe as soon as tomorrow morning. Then we get another huge pump sometime within the next week when he repeals the China tariffs and sets then to 10% or something.
Just hold your favorite stock and wait it out. I bet he exempts AAPL, auto parts, and whatever else from the China tariffs. GM and even PDD went up today in anticipation.
I had a few GM puts, saw the jump, tried to climb on as fast as possible. I prioritized my retirement account ahead of my options play, but I made a little money, hopefully more the next few days, lol.
Expecting a melt up, then a jump when he caves in to China, no shorting anything for the next week until everything stabilizes. NVDA and TSLA still have other issues aside from tariffs, so those will be targets. Gotta let the short squeeze complete first, I have a 3 day rule. Wait 3 days, lol.
S&P - What will happen next for the S&P?The S&P 500 has been dropping quickly after Trump's tariff policies were announced. It fell from 5750 to 4900, and is now at 5053, all in just a few days. This is a sharp decline, and sellers are clearly in control right now.
However, after such a big drop, it's common to see a short-term bounce before the market continues to fall. There is strong resistance between 5400 and 5500, which lines up with the golden pocket (a key level in technical analysis). This could make it harder for the S&P to rise past these levels.
Looking further down, there is another strong support area between 4500 and 4600. This level also matches the golden pocket on the daily chart, making it an important point for potential support. If the market keeps falling, we could see this area tested before any significant recovery.
Right now, it seems likely that the market will keep going lower. My main expectation is that we’ll get a small rally first, which could trick some traders into thinking the market is recovering, before continuing down. However, with all the uncertainty around the news and policies right now, it's also possible the market could keep dropping sharply without much of a rally.
Keep a close eye on the markets and stick to good risk management practices. If you don’t, it could really hurt your portfolio. Stay alert and adjust your strategy as things change.
Thanks for your support.
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S&P 500 Testing Key SupportThis analysis aims to provide you with a clear understanding of the market’s direction and potential inflection points on the Weekly timeframe.
Bearish/Bullish Trend Analysis
Trend Condition:
Bullish Trends: 3
Bearish Trends: 11
Overview: The market shows a predominant bearish outlook with 11 trend lines indicating a downward movement. However, there are 3 bullish trends emerging, suggesting some areas of resistance or potential reversal points.
Price Action and Momentum Zones
Current Price and Change:
Currently, the S&P 500 Futures are at 4,979.75, down 117.00 points or approximately -2.30%.
Market Behavior: This week’s sharp decline is consistent with the dominant bearish trend but the presence of a few bullish lines hints at possible undercurrents of recovery or resistance.
Momentum Zones:
The index has recently entered a lower price band, testing significant support levels that could dictate the next movements within this bearish trend.
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
Current Position Relative to Levels:
The futures are hovering around the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level.
Key Fibonacci Levels:
23.6% → 5,537.68
38.2% → 5,148.66
50.0% → 4,834.25
61.8% → 4,519.84
Analysis: The proximity to the 50.0% level at 4,834.25 is noteworthy, as this level often acts as a moderate support in downtrends. Remaining around this level could suggest a stabilization or minor corrective rally if buying interest increases.
Overall Market Interpretation
Despite the downturn this week, the S&P 500 Futures showing some bullish signals could indicate a complex market environment where traders are assessing whether the current levels present buying opportunities or if the bearish trend will persist.
Summary
The S&P 500 Futures have faced a significant decline early in the trading week. With the market currently testing the 50.0% Fibonacci level, this could be a crucial juncture. The market's next steps will depend heavily on whether it can sustain above this level, potentially leading to a stabilization or a continued descent. Monitoring these Fibonacci levels will be key in predicting the short-term future of the market.
ES Premarket Update3hr MFI is headed quickly to oversold, and the dollar index is bouncing back a little. FUtures are also green.
I expect the market to bounce up when MFI gets oversold, so possibly a gap up which sells off then market goes back up?
Gold trade is on hold until currency direction is determined. The dollar will eventually break though, so holding the small position I bought yesterday morning..... that way I'll watch gold. We'll see where that goes....
US dollar is oversold on 3hr and daily charts, so there's a chance it will bounce back up.... or maybe it just goes into full tank mode and ignores indicators. Hard market to judge.
Inside dayThe expectation for Friday's price behavior in the daily chart on the S&P 500 is for Friday's action to trade within the range of Thursday's high to low price range. It will be interesting to see how the market unfolds going into this weekend after the tremendous volatility we had this week. We need new news to see a dramatic move in this market for Friday.
ES 3hr UpdateRSI hit overbought so we got a dip. We may get another dip when MFI gets overbought today, or just a bigger dip if it hits overbought premarket. Will we get a melt up instead? I dunno.
Keep in mind that China still has tariffs, but also keep in mind he's going to do exemptions. So that rules out shorting AAPL or any sector like auto.
We will get another huge pop when he pauses China tariffs eventually. Also, at this point the futures gap fill is inevitable.
Also, companies like NVDA and TSLA had issues even without the tariffs, so there's that as well. They probably overshot the target because of teh short squeeze.
I've got a PCRA trade that I posted yesterday. Other than that, I think I will just go back to playing the 3hr indicator, and buy when RSI or MFI hit oversold. Not gonna short anything until next week. Looks like GM is gonna lose half the gain from yesterday because they use Chinese parts, but Trump also said he'll do exemptions so not gonna play it. Also, EVERYTHING GOES UP in a major short squeeze, even garbage like FCEL. When he makes a China deal, you'll be hosed if you're short. PDD went up yesterday and premarket even though Trump hit China with 125%.
I can't predict what Trump will do with China, so just pay attention to the news.
ES UpdateI won't be able to post before work, so here's an early update....
RSI is barely touching oversold, I expect it to go a bit further, but don't expect a tank. Probably a double bottom because the algos want their money back, lol.
Daily and weekly RSI also oversold, and the algos appear to be looking strictly at indicators and not the news. They freakin pumped right before tariff announcements TWICE, lol. SO possible reversal tomorrow afternoon or Thu. Keep an eye out, they'll pump the market every time a country makes a deal. That's my prediction...