3/21 Gap Fill Bullish BounceUS indices are poised to fill downside gaps from Friday's close. Could be good for a bounce w/ upside cash gap targets higher.
MES1! trade ideas
S&P 500 Futures Potential Short OpportunitiesThe S&P 500 futures index has retraced approximately half its previous losses from a steep sell-off that began at 6148. After rejection at 5818, prices now hover precariously above critical Support at 5732.
Immediate Support Test: Failure at 5732 would trigger additional bearish pressure toward the next support levels at 5649 and 5566.
Bullish Reversal Potential: Only a decisive close above 5818 would suggest a more constructive outlook, which currently appears improbable amid elevated VIX levels.
ES UpdateMFI bounced even though it did not quite hit oversold, so I bought some AAPL calls and QQQ ETF for my retirement account before the late afternoon pop.
Market gapped down but held it's own the last 2 days, that makes me bullish for next week. Maybe the gap fill is still valid, we'll find out next week.
ES/SPY Bottoming Process Gaining More ClarityThe George W Bush pattern still seems to be forming...taking the longer larger and more powerful form. Will the right lower part of the W take place above the lower left side, dead even or below. Certainly sentiment would lead us to believe it will be well below the left side. However, today failed to make a lower low. Selling may resume Sunday night/Monday morning or the double bottom retest may be complete....OR of course we can keep charging significantly lower.
ES - Day Trading Analysis With Volume ProfileOn ES , it's nice to see a strong sell-off from the price of 5619 and 5651. It's also encouraging to observe a strong volume area where a lot of contracts are accumulated.
I believe that sellers from this area will defend their short positions. When the price returns to this area, strong sellers will push the market down again.
Downtrend and Volume cluster are the main reasons for my decision to go short on this trade.
Happy trading,
Dale
ES/SPY Possible Enhancement On Idea.As per usually channel lines are nice but common price action includes big pushes past them and then reclaiming them. This provides great opportunities for big money to run the stops, scoop of the shares, paint a big wick and keep trucking. It's how the game is played and provides no real ability as to where to count on a bottom or to put stops. Non the less the channel lines provide an idea as to where to see signs of traction or of course a top for further bull traps or sell offs. Personally I think peak tariffs fears are near and at some point the market will accept them and move on.
Risk offThe S&P 500 price action on Friday indicated risk off as demonstrated by the selling that came into this market. The expectation is further movement to the downside but not a big day down on Monday without new fundamental information.
Gamma Exposure Analysis SPY & VXX SPY Resistance at 570. The 570 level in SPY likely corresponds to a high gamma concentration for 0DTE (zero days to expiration) options. At this strike, market makers short gamma (i.e., net sellers of options) at this level would dynamically delta-hedge by selling SPY as the price approaches 570, creating selling pressure and resistance. Next resistance level 575.
For VXX , the 48 level likely represents a put-dominated gamma zone: If market makers are net long puts, they would buy VXX as prices decline toward 48 to hedge against further downside, creating support. Next support level 46.50
Recap: Weekly Trade Plan March 10th, 2025CME_MINI:ES1!
In this TradingView blog, we will recap our trade plan posted on March 10th, 2025.
Please note that this is a recap, and since then, we have also published our updated price map and weekly plan for the current week. Today is also the Federal Reserve's decision day.
Here is our updated price map from the weekly plan published on March 10th, 2025:
Our updated price map for ES Futures
Key Levels:
• Important Level to reclaim if no correction: 5795.25 - 5800
• Key LVN: 5738 - 5696
• Mid 2024 range: 5574.50
• Key Support: 5567.25 - 5528.75
• 2024-YTD mCVAL: 5449.25
• 2022 CVAH: 5280.25
It is important to note that when we provide our thoughts and reasoning for the levels we map in our recap, we have the benefit of hindsight. Likewise, when we publish our weekly trading plan and share our thoughts at the start of the week, we are anticipating potential market movements on the hard right edge. This is where randomness and uncertainty are key points.
If we were to rank our process chronologically, this is how we note the importance of each component that makes up our plan.
1. Big Picture
2. Key Levels/Price Map
3. Scenarios
Our big picture is based on how we view the global macroeconomic and geopolitical landscape.
Key levels are mapped utilizing our methodology considering market auction theory and volume profiling. Note how our key level, 'Mid-range 2024', on higher time frame provided support.
At times you may see two scenarios, at other times three. Scenarios are just an anticipation which a trader should adjust should any new information come to light. Although you may note that our scenarios play out mostly from reviewing our blogs. Our aim is to help you create a process for yourself. Note how we anticipated near-mirroring price action for the week, though our reasoning was influenced by higher inflation data. However, the inflation reading came in lower than expected.
Fast forward to today, all eyes are now on the Federal Reserve’s rate decision, SEP, and the FOMC press conference scheduled for later today.
S&P - Will we follow 2020/2021?The S&P has been trading in a rising pattern for over 700 days, similar to the rising pattern observed in 2020 and 2021. In that instance, the price of the S&P broke below the support trendline and lost all SMA support, while also making a lower low. This has not occurred since the start of the current pattern. Could a deeper correction follow?
Blue line = 50-day MA
Red line = 100-day MA
Yellow line = 200-day MA
Analysis of the 2020/2021 Price Action
We can conclude the following five points:
1. The rising wedge lasted for nearly 700 days.
2. The price consistently made higher highs and higher lows.
3. The S&P found support on the SMAs and never broke below the 200-day MA.
4. After approximately 700 days, the S&P broke below the rising wedge, lost all key SMA support, and made a lower low.
5. During the retest of the rising wedge and key SMAs (which had turned into resistance), a bearish cross (50-day SMA below the 100-day SMA) occurred, leading to a downtrend.
How Does the 2020/2021 Price Action Correlate to 2023/2024?
We can conclude the following five points:
1. The rising wedge lasted for approximately 750 days.
2. The price continued making higher highs and higher lows.
3. The S&P found support on the SMAs and never broke below the 200-day SMA.
4. After around 750 days, the S&P broke below the rising wedge, lost all key SMA support, and made a lower low.
5. A bearish cross between the 50-day SMA and the 100-day SMA is currently forming.
When we overlay the bar pattern of the 2021 bearish price action onto the current chart, it suggests that a revisit to 4,750 is possible. This level is both a technical support and the point where the S&P started its downtrend in 2021.
Conclusion
Will the S&P follow the 2021 price action, resulting in a sustained downtrend, or will it reclaim all lost SMA levels and continue its uptrend? The price action suggests that there is a real possibility of weakness in the coming months.
ES, Mar 19, 2025With today's FOMC Federal Funds announcement, I expect CME_MINI:ES1! to sweep liquidity below the current range, tapping into the daily liquidity level and daily average sweep zone before reversing higher. From there, I anticipate a push through the 4H Imbalance (IFVG) and continuation toward the daily average expansion area, which aligns with key daily buy-side liquidity.
This move would follow a classic liquidity grab and expansion pattern, with price reclaiming key levels and driving higher as liquidity unlocks. If buyers step in as expected, ES should have the momentum to reach and potentially exceed the daily expansion target. Note weekly FVG above daily expansion level.
However, if ES fails to displace above the 4H IFVG, it would signal a lack of strength to sustain a move higher. In that case, a rejection at this level could trigger a shift in momentum, increasing the likelihood of further downside as liquidity is redistributed lower. If that happens, I will be targeting the daily average expansion level at $5,600.
the S hit the Flosing thi trendline is a problem or im not captain obvious
where bottom? well.
no one knows the future some people me included though trump would boom the market
some people thought
people think
i think we need to stop thinking and see whats infront of us.
fear gives us a lack of buyers (volume)
uncerteinty provides sellers (price drops)
macro economics provide both of these.
and rate cuts arent happening but im still balling.
i wont say my projections in case im right i dont want market makers to change their plans but i will be nice and post my chart.
lines are levels and sweep levels
volume profile is volume profile
rectangles are gaps
rsi is rsi
fibbos are fibbos
declining volume is declining volume
Which place is attractive to buy??
For ES futures traders 5,509.25 is the low of the month I use specific range projections and, CME_MINI:ES1! For futures traders 5,509.25 is the low of the month expect price to start rallying to all time highs once again
(This is not a retail concept)
ES1! Short Term View With price rebounding from the 61.8% Fib (~5516) and now hovering near the 38.2% Fib (~5758), the market is at a critical juncture. If buyers maintain control above 5637, we could see a continued push higher, first testing 5758, then potentially on toward 5907+. On the flip side, failure at these resistance levels could prompt a deeper retracement back into the high‐5500s or lower. Always watch volume and price action near the key Fib confluence zones to gauge the next directional move.
Trading Scenarios (Week of 23rd March) :
Bullish (Primary): As long as the market holds above ~5637 on pullbacks, the bias remains upward, targeting a retest of 5758 and potentially higher toward 5908.
Bearish (Secondary): A firm close below 5637 re‐opens the door to 5514–5516. A break below that “golden zone” would negate the short‐term bullish structure and could send ES toward the larger swing low at ~5114.
ES can go higher now to 5800.
C and X combo Next Y wave inside a 5 wave combo.
if price go below 5650. its sell.
ES, Mar 20, 2025CME_MINI:ES1! swept its avg sweep area, pushed through daily open and retraced to it. I'm anticipating a move towards Daily Avg Expansion Area towards the end of the day targeting $5,665. Closure above 1h FVG would invalidate this idea.
ES UpdateWell, apparently you can't just rely on daily indicators and an open gap. All I did was lose money on premium burn with the calls I bought last week, but I added next week's XLF calls when the market opened and XLF went red for some stupid reason.
Wound up dumping everything near the daily peak when I regained lost profits, so at least I'm even now, lol. What I realized is that you gotta pay attention to the 3 hr indicators even at the bottom. You can see how it sold off Monday afternoon/night because RSI and MFI hit overbought, and we got the Powell pump because MFI hit oversold premarket today,
I don't have time to pay attention to the market all day because I have a job now, lol, so you guys will have to track MFI and RSI on your own. 3 hr chart, standard settings for RSI and MFI and make sure your time zone aligns with US east coast (NY), or else the 3 hr charts will look different.
There's also a small gap up aftermarket today that also needs to be filled. Probably more whipsaw, lol. At this point, I'm only trading if I see indicators go oversold or overbought. WIll post plots pre-market if I have time. Good luck.
Combined US Indexes - Time to make a Lower HighFrom the last time, the Combined US equity indexes did keep into the Extension Zone (EZ) as marked out. This Zone is defined from the lowest point of the TD Setup and the range is determined by the range of the candle that has the lowest point, this case being Candle 9 (4 March).
So after the expected two week in the EZ, we see an indication of the week ahead to continue the Sell Setup and break out of the EZ for the week, at least from mid-week where it would be candle 9.
According to TD rules, this Sell setup is NOT bullish, and can be expected to turn further down from resistance (Orange Line). This orange line is determined from the weekly chart where there is an ongoing TD Buy Setup (bearish) that needs to be kept intact for the trend to continue.
So, based on the techincals, the combined US equities may be seeing a last week of bullishness which goes through the yellow ellipse, then face strong resistance and continue the main Bearish trend (as depicted by the prevailing Buy Setup (20Feb to 4Mar). Noted that the main trend changed to Bear once the TDST was broken down on 3Mar.
Here are very good live examples for those keen on (Thomas) Demark indicators; watch and wait for it to develop...
ES Premarket UpdateWell, I did mention the small open gap yesterday afternoon, lol.
Looks like Europe sold off and took the US futures with them, MFI is now OVERBOUGHT meaning more downside despite the open gap above. The market is breaking a lot of my usual rules, the only time the market left an open futures gap for an extended time was the initial COVID gap which stayed open for a year.
Looks like Trump is the new COVID, not playing the gap fill anymore, just playing 3 hr indicators now. Also, Powell did not say anything significant yesterday.
A degree of comfortThe Fed laid out its forecasting for decreases in Fed funds rate through 2027. I think this brings a certain degree of comfort to the market that there is a roadmap to lower interest rates. The result was a positive movement in the S&P 500 daily chart. The expectation is for follow-through to the upside on Thursday but not a large move.
Short ESTo complete the move, holding until it pays. Support and Resistance lines in video
Bottom 5600 is the half way Bear mark for me.
Trump is the new COVIDI guess no futures gap fill, ES should go oversold on the 3 hr Monday. Gonna wait to go long.
Overview on S&P / 6C / 6E / Gold / SilverJust ran down a major overview on where I'm at in responding to a few messages. I left my last scenario mid December where I stated the S&P was overheated and was likely to come down, even if I didn't have a strong enough signal to go for a longer short on the market.
As I had said then, I was mostly interested in the 6E. I made a large chunk off buying the dip on the 6E and cashing out on trends, to include the launch off it recently had. I'm now done with the 6E for the moment.
My current focus is on 6C. The algorithm and math have taken a turn that the 6C is ready to rebound. I entered into it at just under .69, I did have to roll over into the newer contract, but even with the last couple down days, the math still supports a rebound. I almost cashed out today when it had a rough start and fell at .5%, but held through and we have mostly recovered for the day, leaving us with a fairly bearish candle pattern to support the ongoing uptrends pulling is higher.
When it comes to gold, we have multiple trend violations against the 1hr, 2hr, 3hr, 4hr, and 6hr of lower highs. I expect a downswing to correct these, as they are long overdue for some time now before we move higher. I do believe that Gold is destined for higher, just not yet. I haven't gotten any longer-term signals for gold, so I've mostly been shorting in swing trades to net just a couple thousand on this issue.
I am getting a signal on Silver that it is ready to launch. It is not a flawless signal to show it is ready to meet new highs, so I may watch it tomorrow, but ultimately, I may feel more comfortable jumping into silver over gold for a rebound instead of quick shorts. Also, silver has less margin, so it ties up less of my account.
That is where I sit, hope your trades go well, and remember your risk management.
