Inside day expected on MondayOn Monday it is expected for that day's session to trade within the Fridays range.
MES1! trade ideas
SP500 - #SPX melt up targets for cup and handle pattern.BLUE SKIES
Would you have believed it
If you were told a year ago.
When every expert was predicting a recession.
(which will come of course but when no one is expecting it )
So the conditions are set for a melt up
I believe #Bitcoin bottoms very shortly maybe this week or next
(grab some bitcoin miners!)
ENJOY THE NEXT few months!
#CNBC will trumpeting SOFT LANDING
Investors will believe interest rates are falling because of low #Inflation
Which is when the next slowdown will hit.
This cycle has been crazy and hard to follow the main trend.
The stimulus was unprecedented
Remember this cycle started in 2009... 15 years ago
We are near the end!
But first SPX to smash 5000 and than potentially we hit that 6000 number
Rate cuts and their impact on the marketsRate cuts and their impact on the markets
The Fed's decisions to cut interest rates, while seeking to stimulate the economy, have had a mixed effect on financial markets. On the one hand, these measures tend to favor equity assets by reducing funding costs and encouraging investment. On the other hand, in an environment of global uncertainty and expectations of recession, rate cuts have been interpreted by some investors as a sign of economic weakness, which has contributed to the fall in stock market indices.
In this context, investors have migrated towards assets considered safer, such as Treasury bonds, which has generated significant movements in sovereign debt yields. This behavior directly affects traders' strategies during the Quadruple Witching Hour, when position adjustment is usually more intense.
Quadruple Witching Hour amid market declines
With markets facing recent declines, the Quadruple Witching Hour could amplify volatility due to several factors:
1. Massive position adjustments: Investors looking to protect their portfolios or close open positions could generate sharp movements in stock and index prices.
2. Impact on liquidity: In an environment of uncertainty, liquidity could be reduced, making price movements even more pronounced.
3. Impact on specific sectors: Companies that are more sensitive to interest rates, such as technology and real estate, could experience greater pressure due to changing investor expectations.
Outlook and strategies
In this environment, investors should be particularly attentive to:
1. Evolving expectations about monetary policy: Any changes in Fed language or economic data could influence market participants' decisions during the Quadruple Witching Hour.
2. Risk management: Using hedging strategies, such as options or inverse ETFs, can be key to mitigating the impact of volatility.
3. Opportunities in volatility: For more experienced traders, sharp price movements may offer opportunities to generate short-term profits.
In conclusion, the Quadruple Witching Hour in the current environment of Fed rate cuts and market declines represents both a challenge and an opportunity. Careful planning and a clear understanding of the factors at play will be essential to navigate this period successfully.
Ion Jauregui – ActivTrades Analyst
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20241220 ESI anticipate at least one more low to be made with ss raid. 8.30 HI news will be the moment to look for the signs of the upside TGIF scenario. I anticipate some upside move during AMS and sideways into the end of the day. NWOG and ORG Thursday CE are my upside DOL.
S&P 500 Comes Back From Extreme "Extreme"In the S&P 500, we observe a very similar scenario to the Nasdaq (see link to the NQ chart).
It’s worth noting that we’ve seen this situation a few times before: the price traded outside the orange fork, moved back into the fork, but then left behind a "Hagopian" and shot back above it.
This is irrational market behavior caused by artificial buying pressure (Gamma Squeeze).
Now, we see the market bouncing off the 1/4 line between the warning line and the U-MLH of the white fork. And yet again, we’re trading within the orange fork.
What now?
Back up again or is it really heading down this time?
Read my lips: "I - Don’t - Know." §8-)
Buuuut, the projection and the extent of the over extension lead me to believe that this time, it’s going to crash!
Like in the NQ, my stance here is **short** for the coming weeks, and possibly even months.
The Next Potential S&P 500 Support ZoneVolume Profile puts market volume on a vertical axis. This allow you to discover support/resistance areas. The widest part of the profile is called Point of Control (POC). This is the level of strongest potential support/resistance.
POC is at 5,790.00 which is close to a Fibonacci .382 retracement of the 08/05/24 to 12/17/24 rally.
These two level imply support in the 5,805 to 5740 range.
This level could be reached next week.
Are sellers in control?As we see further weakness in the S&P 500, does it indicate that sellers are in control? The current price structure implies that selling is continuing to come into the market including the opening of the Asia time zone. A parameter for us to pay attention to is how the sellers finish going into the weekend. We are approaching levels that we found buyers before. So, be cautious on the short side.
SPX ESH25 - What potentially comes next in the sequence - FreeI initially shared this chart on a paid subscriber platform but am now offering it for free. I hope it provides helpful context. Please proceed with caution.
$SPY - "Broken Wedges Become Channels"There are reasons for it. I could go into it all. I don't have the energy. This isn't advice. You are responsible for your own investments and allocations and whatnot. I'm just sharing what I do. We will most likely see a channel first. I buy channel bottoms. I am not perfect. They only thing I try to perfect is my position allocation. I will be buying when it makes sense to me.
ES: Where I see Mrs. Market is headingEnd of this year or early next year might be in for some kind of a shocker. If the current ending diagonal is true, then ES should not see 6300 at this point. Either the Fed or all this tariff talk may tank the market in the coming weeks. If we say the rules of alternation in play, then the wave 4 should be steep and quick. Wave 2 took 10 months and was choppy. Wave 4 should take about half that time and should get into wave 1 territory at 4788. That would put the market in the bear market territory and most pundits should call for the lost decade. But I see one more high to end the 100 year cycle sometime around 2026.
ES testing 6040 zone and reverse to enter the range 5735-5920Based on Wyckoff, we are now in UT phase were we should go back to the range between the 2 red lines.
the fact that we made high, got back to the red line to do reversal and made higher high => and now back to the same reversal point indicates weakness .
From here came my conclusion that max we will hit 6040 zone and go down to the lower range 5735-5920.
SPX: Change In Sentiment Delivering Slight Falls..FED Meeting yesterday dampened the prospect of faster easing from the FED.
Previously optimism of this happening caused significant rallies to ATH's.
Now slight waning in this. Re-shorts applicable but only lightly as overall economic health seems generally reasonable.
Top 5 Weekly Trade Ideas #5 - ES Bull FlagI'm beginning to get more bearish for the short term but for now ES continues to hold support around 6,113, which was a previous ATH from the post election rally. It's bullish until it breaks. My best guess is that it will break and will potentially provide a good short opportunity for a move down to demand and a previous swing low near 5,950. Next downside target from there would be 5,800.
If it holds I'd expect a move back up to the top end of the range and would be looking for longs on a break and retest or any good dips. This is an interesting spot and seems like a good spot to long, but it could just as easily be a quick flush. It's probably best to wait and see what happens after FOMC before putting on too much risk. There will be a chance to get on board after it chooses a direction. IV is rising, best to wait for it to come down.
A Sprint to the downside!Based on Fed comments the S&P 500 on the daily chart sprinted to the downside creating volatility that has not been seen since 2001. The expectation would be for the market to move lower but not a dramatic move as the market catches its breath.
Where May Equity Markets Finish For 2024?As we are approaching year end, this is a great time as a trader to go back and see how different markets performed relative to the positions you had throughout the year. Many different sectors had excellent performances this year such as the precious metals complex, with Gold hitting all time high levels, and the crypto market led by Bitcoin. With that said, the ES contract has hit a new all time high this year and is trading right near the $6,000 level which was first achieved this year.
Traders often reference the “Santa Clause Rally” referring to a move higher in markets to finish out the year on a high note. With the year winding down, there are only a few more trading days along with some important economic data that will have an impact on how prices settle for the end of the year. Also, with the selling pressure seen today across several markets, there would need to be a catalyst to send prices back near all time highs.
Looking ahead to next year, there is still a lot of uncertainty about the markets based on tensions in the Middle East, a new presidential cycle starting in January, and the Fed’s plans for rate cuts or pauses for 2025.
If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs tradingview.com/cme/
*CME Group futures are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of loss. Copyright © 2023 CME Group Inc.
**All examples in this report are hypothetical interpretations of situations and are used for explanation purposes only. The views in this report reflect solely those of the author and not necessarily those of CME Group or its affiliated institutions. This report and the information herein should not be considered investment advice or the results of actual market experience.
2024-12-18 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
sp500 e-mini futures - Neutral. Selling was too strong to be just a pullback in this bull trend. Best guess is that the trend is over and we are in a huge two-legged correction down to 5800 or lower. 5927 was the low from my W2 and we can expect sideways to up around this price. The lower bull wedge trend line should get a retest.
comment : Bull trend is over. We are likely in a trading range the next weeks until we begin a new bigger bear trend. Bulls can still make a higher but it has gotten very unlikely after today’s selling. Huge follow-through would be down to 5800 but that’s a bit much for now. A bounce could retest the lower bull wedge line around 6000-6050, depending on when we get there, if we get there.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 5800 - 6050
bull case: Bulls might be running for the exits. Very interesting day tomorrow if bears can close another one below 6000 or if we trade back up. I would only take longs on very strong momentum. First target for bulls is 6000 and then 6050ish.
Invalidation is below 5800.
bear case: Bears with a huge surprise bar, changing the market character and ending this rally. Now their target is to keep the market below 6000 and then they have a chance of selling down to 5800. It is still somewhat unlikely to see bigger follow-through selling during these weeks of the year but it could happen. Right now it’s best to be flat and wait if bears want more blood.
Invalidation is above 6100.
short term: Neutral. Only small scalps for me to either direction. Can have bigger swings going into Opex on Friday. Expecting a bigger bounce going into the last 2 weeks of December and then much bigger selling in Q1 2025.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-12-15: Will write a new outlook for 2025 next week.
current swing trade: Nope
trade of the day: Nothing. Don’t gamble FOMC or other news releases.
ES Resistance.I am not saying this is a short trade, but if we start breaking down in this area, I would expect lower on the ES. My fibs are pulled from the prior yearly swing highs. This is a major area of resistance. If we gain this box and hold we will go higher, but the hold must be on the high time frame charts like the monthly and quarterly. Thoughts?
ES down (weekly chart)today was fomc, ES dropped hard on a large kill candle
Weekly chart:
-looks like a reversal on price action; last week also had inc volume on small body candle, failing to break higher
-the rsi (momentum) turned down a while back; the rsi looks to be moving toward the bottom of these combined channels - the green uptrend channel is very wide, so ES can make a big pullback and still be in a technical uptrend in momentum; tbd
**I have not listened to anything related to FOMC yet; everything published here is pure technical analysis
ES down - broke trendline, 50day, rsiES:
Daily:
-broke below uptrend rsi channel
-broke below uptrend price action
-inc volume
Weekly: (not shown here)
-rsi trending downward within a larger uptrend channel
-looks like a topping candle unless Th/Fri are stellar bounce back days
If today started a true correction and there is no fake out, one-day-wonder break below these trendlines, it should last a few weeks. tbd...
Does the market get what it wants from the Fed?The main focus on Wednesday will be the Federal Reserve's action taken regarding the fed funds rate. If the Federal Reserve lowers the fed funds rate by 25 bps, the expectation will be an upmarket and a positive close. If the Federal Reserve defers lowering the fed funds rate, the expectation would be a down market and a negative close.
2024-12-17 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
sp500 e-mini futures - Neutral. Prices are messed up due to contract change but my lower targets were hit and market is in balance at now 6140ish. Huge support 6115 for the bulls and bears need a strong 1h bar close below it for lower prices. Bulls are in full control when market can only go sideways right under the ath.
comment : Both sides made money today so I expect them to do the same tomorrow. If anything I see the chances of another bull breakout higher than a break below. We have clear support at 6115 and until this is strongly broken, look for longs near it.
current market cycle: bull trend - late and will end soon
key levels: 6115 - 6200 (contract change, so prices are much higher compared to Monday)
bull case: Bulls are still buying the dips and making money. They prevent any stronger selling and that is why most will expect a break above the 1h 20ema tomorrow and the bear trend line. 6150 is their target for tomorrow. Depending on what Jpow delivers, we could melt up again but it’s a gamble I am not willing to take tomorrow. Many bulls also bought this because it’s close to the daily 20ema. We have closed once below it in the past 6 weeks.
Invalidation is below 6100.
bear case: Bears are trying but getting nowhere. They make money scalping but that’s about it. How likely is acceleration downwards? Very unlikely. Most bullish weeks of the year and markets are at peak euphoria.
Invalidation is above 6200.
short term: Neutral. FOMC tomorrow and if anything I expect bulls to trade back up to 6180 going into it. 6115 - 6140 is neutral. Bearish only below 6100.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-12-15: Will write a new outlook for 2025 next week.
current swing trade: Nope
trade of the day: Selling since Globex or buying previous support 6115. Bears kept it below the 1h 20ema which had 3 great short opportunities today but bulls also had decent bounces off 6115.
MOVE, VIX, YIELD and Equity misalignWhen the Equity does not move along with the other three indexes, which are at extreme levels, I am not sure if risk on is a wise idea.
ES Futures Trade Idea: Santa Rally Expectationswww.tradingview.com
The ES futures market has maintained a bullish trajectory in 2024, with few pullbacks along the way. Currently, the futures are consolidating near All-Time Highs, setting the stage for a pivotal week ahead.
Key Catalysts to Watch
Wednesday, December 18th, 2024
FED Interest Rate Decision
Summary of Economic Projections (SEP)
FOMC Meeting
These events could provide the momentum needed to fuel a potential Santa Claus Rally. However, whether this materializes remains uncertain.
Additional Economic Data
The economic calendar this week is packed with key data releases, beginning with the preliminary Manufacturing and Services PMI readings at 8:45 AM CT today. On Tuesday, the spotlight will be on November US Retail Sales, while Thursday, December 19th, 2024, brings a flurry of critical updates, including the Bank of England (BOE) and Bank of Japan (BOJ) rate decisions, Q3 US GDP, initial jobless claims, and November existing home sales. The week concludes on Friday, with the release of the FED’s preferred Core PCE Price Index for November at 7:30 AM CT, offering fresh insights into inflation trends.
Key Levels to Watch:
Target for Bulls: 6295-6310
Line in Sand (LIS): 6045-6055
R1: 6105-6115
R2: 6145-6155
R3: 6195-6205
S1: 5970-5960
S2: 5855-5835
Key Support S3: 5735-5745
Possible Scenarios
Scenario 1: Sustained Bullish Movement and Santa Rally
In this bullish case, ES futures break out of the consolidation zone following the FED announcements. This could lead to a year-end rally with prices targeting the Fibonacci extension level at 6312.50, setting the stage for continued gains into Q1 2025.
Scenario 2: Santa Rally Followed by Pullback
Here, the FED-driven Santa rally kicks off but encounters resistance. After the initial bullish push, the market consolidates into year-end as traders await fresh inflows and sector rotations in January for the next directional move.
Both scenarios hinge on key data releases and market reaction to the FED’s guidance. Keep an eye on the Line in the Sand (LIS) at 6045–6055, as it represents a critical level for the ongoing trend.
This week’s calendar is packed with high-impact events that could drive volatility and shape the near-term outlook for ES futures. Stay prepared!
Disclaimer: The views expressed are personal opinions and should not be interpreted as financial advice. Derivatives involve a substantial risk of loss and are not suitable for all investors.
