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MES1! trade ideas

ES - continues the downtrendOn ES , it's nice to see a strong sell-off from the price of 5942.50. It's also encouraging to observe a strong volume area where a lot of contracts are accumulated. I believe that sellers from this area will defend their short positions. When the price returns to this area, strong sellers will push the market down again. Fair Volume GAP (FVG) and high volume cluster + Weekly POC are the main reasons for my decision to go short on this trade. Happy trading, Dale
CME_MINI:ES1!
by Trader_Dale
Strategy Winter — Spring 2025. S&P500 Index Choking DiagonalUS markets were shacked on Friday, January 10th, after the December NFP jobs report came in much stronger than expected. The US economy added 256,000 jobs in December, well above the average economist estimate of 155,000. The unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 4.1% from 4.2% in November, although it remains above its 6-month simple moving average. The Nasdaq-100 immediately fell about 1%, while the yield on the 10-year US Treasury note jumped nearly 10 basis points to 4.785%, its highest since October 2023. The strong payrolls report further strengthened the case for the Federal Reserve not to cut interest rates again until at least 2025. The move in stocks and bonds is a continuation of what has been happening in recent weeks: After a period of mega-euphoric optimism, investors have begun to expect higher inflation driven by President-elect Donald Trump’s proposed trade and fiscal policies. If bond yields continue to rise, Americans will feel the brunt of it. The CME FedWatch Tool shows that markets now expect just one rate cut of 25 basis points this year, down from as many as three at the end of last year. The odds of no rate cuts in 2025 more than doubled to 28% on Friday morning. The dollar index TVC:DXY skyrocketed to the Moon, while the yield on 10-year U.S. sovereign bonds TVC:TNX stays well above 4.5%. Endogenously, the market has been preparing for such turbulence for a long time, as discussed in the previously published idea “Strategy 2025. BTC Airless Scenario Below $100'000 Choking Point” . I have to remind that the financial market had tough weeks in December 2024, but it could also face a tough year in 2025, as I noted then. The market was on track for its worst weeks in years after the Federal Reserve gave a hawkish forecast for interest rate cuts in 2025. But looking at the market internals, it was clear that the damage had been done well before the December Fed meeting – and this signal was a historical indicator of tough times ahead. Thus, Dow Jones Futures CBOT_MINI:YM1! ended 2024 with the 3rd RED WEEK in a row, forming the Bearish Candlestick Pattern "Three Black Crows" on the weekly timeframe, which developed, remarkably, from the all-time highs of the Dow Jones index. Last week, Dow Jones Futures ended with the 6th RED WEEK in a row - and this is a rather rare event. Historical backtest analysis over the past 25 years shows that this can lead to a further (at least) 10-percent drop for the Top-30 stock club. Bulls have done a lot of work, advanced more than 2,000 points in 2023-24, for the S&P500 index. However they were unable to finalize their achievements confidently above the round 6-thousand mark by the end of 2024. By the way, the same inability in Bitcoin to finalize 2024 above the round 100,000 mark is now repeatedly throwing the market back to lower price marks, as discussed in the recently published idea. The main technical chart indicates a suffocating bearish diagonal in development for the S&P500 index, with targets for decline down to 5'250 points.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by PandorraResearch
Market Stress Echo's 2005-2008 in 2022-2025 Found a correlation between ES1! futures and SPY equity flow of money between the two, starting with 2004 Starting at the first vertical divider one can observe a "sawtooth wave" in RSI naturally known for its robotic sequence. Up to 2008 where this automation stopped. After 2008 we see normal movement in the market, aka "human randomness of noise (buys/sells)" or as I like to call it "human trading" during 2009 to 2016 has less of a robotic movement than between 2004-2008. Finally we see that in 2022 this sawtooth wave again re-appeared (consider trying ES1!/SPY and observing those time lines on a Daily Chart, you will be surprised at the smoothness of the sawtooth wave. What does this show me? Is it a crash? Not certainly, however when liquidity is at its max with lower than usual volume (Considering printed money has gotten us out of market liquidity limitations aka bank stimulus in 2008 and buybacks the years after) we can conclude a similar event is unfolding. At least, we see a pattern and we know what happened at the end of the previous sawtooth waveform. Will length be similar? Will there be the same amount of waves? This is up to fundamentals and liquidity left in the market after everyone and their grandmother have thrown all their cash in equities (including Europeans currently being the new fish in the pond). No way to predict the end of this liquidity cycle, but I'm watching a break in the form. Another good use on the smaller timeframe daily candles is to watch ES1!/SPY for reocurring green or red candles (green normally means ES1! gains liquidity, Red normally means SPY gains liquidity). Example: If 4 green candles in a row, high probability 5th green candle with be red giving another probability tool for downward daily scalp. In the same light if 4 red candles in a row, higher probability 5th will be green giving low risk high reward daily scalp call. While this tool is great for scalping and complementing existing tools like supports/resistances/technical patterns/RSI/EMA's/VWAPS in the short term. In the long term this ES1!/SPY can show interesting patterns that only seem to pop up before major crashes, looking closer one can notice the same loose pattern pre-2000 dot com crash. Since the majority of the market has begun automatically trading using algorithms and over time increased in this automation, this leads me to believe this signal to be even louder than in the past: dot com vs GFC vs current day repetition.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by SuperScholarXYZ
#202502 - priceactiontds - weekly update - sp500 e-miniGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Neutral but slightly bullish if we stay above 5800. Downside would probably be limited with 5800 but we could easily go back to 6000 again. If we get a daily close below 5800 I change my mind and the bull trend line around 5750 would be the next lower target. Overall the probability of another big move up or down are small and sideways is most likely. On SPX we have a bull gap down to 5782 (ES is 40 points higher, so it would be around 5826) and it would be strong by the bears to finally close it after 2 months. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 5800 - 6030 bull case: Only thing bulls have going for them is that we are barely making lower lows and are still above 5800. If bears were strong, we would have tested the big bull trend line from 2023-10 by now, which is still 400 points lower. This market has not had two consecutive bear months since 2023-10 and bulls can be confident it stays that way. Bulls who bought near 5800 made money since 2024-09 and I expect them to come around again next week. They will be scaling scale into longs already or wait until we are closer to 5800 and the probability is on their side. Bulls who bought the previous two lows in December and last week, also made at least 150+ points and until we see more trapped traders (bigger gaps), sideways inside the bigger range is much more likely that a strong move down. Invalidation is below 5780. bear case: Bears changed the character of the market but failed to establish a strong bear trend. Once we see decent buying pressure early next week, they will likely give up and try again near 6000. They simple can not hold short below 5900 when we rallied 150+ the past two times we got below it. The best bears can do is to print lower highs below 6040 and go sideways for longer below 6000. Once we get closer to the bull trend line from 2023-10, it’s likely that we see another strong push up to test 6100+, if we haven’t see a strong break below 5800 by then. It’s typical trading range price action and the range is big enough for both sides to make decent money. You have to play the range because we can go sideways for much longer. Invalidation is above 6040. short term: Neutral between 5840 - 5900. If bears continue to make lower highs below 5900, they have a chance of testing 5800. Once we break above 5900, we will test the bear trend line around 5930ish next and above 5960 bears have to give up and wait for 6000 or 6030 before shorting again. medium-long term - Update from 2024-12-22: Ultimately 5200-5300 in 2025. Again, rough guess as of now and since we have not seen a strong first bear leg, these targets are the lowest I am willing to give an honest outlook about. If bears surprise and we see a huge leg down to 5500, we will go much lower for the second and third leg. current swing trade: None chart update: Marked current bear channel on the 1h tf and removed the bull trend line from the 2024-11 low that got broken.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by priceactiontds
#ES_F Day Trading Prep Week 1.12 - 1.17.2025Last Week : Sunday Globex opened inside the Mean of Previous HTF Range and got a push to VAH which held into RTH that brought in more buying to make a run at the Ranges Edge where we found Supply, for strength to remain we needed to stay and build over VAH instead we build supply at/under VAH and when buying ran out we made a move for VAL. From weekly plan this is what we were looking for a push back under 978 - 73 Intraday Edge to give us sells back towards the Edge where we saw covering and support which gave us holds for a couple days but over all we were ablet to stay under VAL and build supply which kept signaling weakness, Friday we built up enough supply to fully break through the Edge and this time around with more supply above us we had enough selling to get into new Value. Area over swing stops provided good covering which gave us a push back out of Value but we can see that selling was strong enough to get back into the Mean area of the Range to close just above those stops. This Week : This week we are set up open inside the Value of new/previous HTF Range of 913 - 792, We are inside 882 - 841 Intraday Range, Under the Daily Mean of 913 - 896 with now more supply trapped over it. The area where and way we closed Friday is signaling that we should see continuation to the current move or at least more weakness going into this week, as long as we hold under VAH under 5888 - 5900 we can continue with weakness towards current Intraday Edge lows at 841 - 36 which would also take out the swing swing stops under us to give us more selling to test lower VAL and possibly see sells under it towards Previous Distribution Balance we had which was a big cost basis area above Daily Edge that we consolidated at for some time before making new ATH 10.14. To me this was our real ATH and possibly a top area as everything after that was more of Election Speculations and Momentum which died out and now brough us back under that ATH. Also mentioned last week that we had a big failure over Daily Edge which usually targets previous daily areas and so far we have visited Daily Mean which Friday we finally broke and closed under and tagged Daily VAL which is this 846 - 828, Daily lower Edge is 754 - 24 which has some Poor/Weak Lows and a contract roll gap under. Daily Edge and Gap under will still remain good targets going forward but need be careful as those are Daily targets and can take time for us to get there, current VAL and areas under it could provide good enough covering holds and new buying when prices hold to give us enough support to not continue for bigger targets right away but instead balance and build more supply which we will need to go and fill those areas out when we are ready. Over all we are looking for more weakness going into this week but we have to be careful as we have that Previous Distribution balance at 800 - 750 area which had 2 weeks of consolidation that can keep us up and see covering at or over it. For bigger moves out of this HTF Range we would either need to hold and build supply under VAL before taking out the Edge like we did last week above or we would need strong volume that can break VAL and another strong push that can fully break lower Edge to hold under 780 - 70s, until then we may stay inside new current HTF Range and balance around its Value and areas out of Value without accepting under/over Edges. For strength to return or to think higher prices out of this Range we would need to be able to hold over VAH and see a good push in above Edge that could hold inside it without coming back in, until then Higher Time Frames have been transitioning into a correction mode so far Daily is in correction as long as we keep holding under 960s and Weekly as well showing signs of corrections starting but it still needs time to set up which can take time so we have to be patient especially after big moves already taking place.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by HollowMn
1
Rising bond yields hurting the S&P 500 indexThe rising bond yields is one of the top reasons why the S&P 500 index has pulled back in the past few months. Data shows that the 30-year yield surged to 5% for the first time since 2022. The 5-year and 10-year yields have also continued rising in the past few months. These yields rose after the US published strong nonfarm payrollsdata on Friday. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the economy added over 264k jobs data, higher than the median estimate of 112k. The unemployment rate dropped to 4.1%, the lowest level in three months. Therefore, these numbers confirmed the Federal Reserve’s view that the labor market was doing well. Officials are now focusing on the steady inflation and have hinted that the bank will only deliver two cuts this year. Last year, we wrote about the bond vigilantes and warned that they may impact the stock market. These vigilantes are investors who typically push bond yields significantly higher when government spending is rising.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by POWERFUL_TRADERS
$NQ & ES BearishThe NQ and ES on the monthly chart showed signs of rejection, indicating a possible correction toward a PDA located in the discounted region of this timeframe. Consequently, on the daily chart, there was a shift in the price delivery state, now seeking this liquidity as well as the daily sell sides. We maintain a bearish outlook for the assets, but it is important to note that the price may correct toward the premium region of the daily chart, seeking new liquidity to build momentum and ultimately reach the monthly chart objective: a more pronounced drop.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by Pilucax
Combined US Equities - Critical Support Line BROKEN DOWNJust yesterday, the line was drawn and by the close of the day/week, it was done... the line broke with a close below. So, zooming out into the weekly charts, and we see the TD Sequential starts for a Buy Setup (means bullish till end of Setup). Projecting a simple waterfall scenario brings US equities down to target at the TDST, and meeting a confluence of several support levels. Noted MACD crossed down as is RoVD tapering down too. This is the simplest straight line outcome. Alternatively, might see a weak bounce for a lower high on the weekly charts and then the cliff fall in mid- to end-February. Just need to know, then decide what to do. On a seperate note. The First 5 days of the trading week of January is part of the January Barometer where how January closes is how the year goes. and this ended DOWN. Now, if January is ending DOWN as well, then you decide how 2025 is ending most likely. Already obvious 2025 is challenging till September. Watch for it and be wary. All the best!
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by Auguraltrader
SP500 - detailed wave countReports indicate President-elect Donald Trump may declare a national economic emergency to enact controversial tariff policies under the International Economic Emergency Powers Act (IEEPA). Despite criticisms, Trump remains committed to his proposed economic measures. Yahoo Finance reporter Alexandra Canal examines how the US dollar (DX=F, DX-Y.NYB) might respond to Trump's tariff plans and overall economic agenda, inversely causing a reaction in S&P 500 (^GSPC) earnings growth.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by POWERFUL_TRADERS
SP500: Watch This Key Support LevelStrong US jobs data was released today at 14:30 CET, showing 256K new jobs versus the expected 164K, while the unemployment rate fell to 4.1%. This stronger-than-expected data could lead to more risk-off sentiment, as 97% of speculators now believe the Fed will hold rates steady at its next meeting. As a result, with stocks pulling back and the USD strengthening, even cryptocurrencies could face more weakness. Remember, Powell delivered a hawkish cut back in December, when they noted that there can be less cuts in 2025 due to strong economic projections for 2025 which can bring infaltion back up so they must be carefull with rate decision. And this data today is reason why FED may stay on old, rahter than cut and why then stocks can resume even low, which have been in corrective territory since the last Fed meeting in December.The key focus now is identifying the next major support level for stocks. I believe that once stocks turn back to the upside, it could open opportunities across other assets, including cryptocurrencies. Looking at the S&P 500 futures contract, there has been a slow but steady recovery since early November, following Trump’s win in the US elections. However, the market may attempt to liquidate latecomers who joined the stock rally after Trump’s victory. The 5,700 level on the SP500 futures stands out as a critical support zone, acting as a “stop-loss” level for many positioned in the well-known “Trump trade.” If the price reaches this area, more liquidations could occur, potentially clearing the way for a stronger bounce. Markets rarely move straight up that will profit everyone; liquidations often happen on the way higher. There is no easy money. From an Elliott Wave perspective, the sharp drop from all-time highs looks like an incomplete correction. The current sideways movement likely forms wave B, suggesting that wave C could lead to more liquidations toward the 5,800 level, which I see as a very important support zone.If this is indeed is a triangle in wave B, keep in mind that moves out of triangles are final in the sequence, meaning any drop could be limited before the market turns higher. So, I still believe risk-on sentiment will return, but this may not happen until Trump officially returns to office and market positioning settles for 2025. Regarding Bitcoin, I see the 85,000–87,000 area as a very interesting support zone, where more downside could be limited. Grega
CME_MINI:ESH2025
by ew-forecast
Market Outlook for Next Week (US):Key Catalysts to Watch: Earnings Reports: Major U.S. banks, including Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, and Citigroup, will release their Q4 2024 earnings next week. These reports will provide critical insights into the financial sector's health and could drive significant market movements. Economic Data: Updates on corporate profits and other macroeconomic indicators will be closely monitored. Recent data showed a decline in U.S. corporate profits (-0.4%), suggesting potential headwinds for business performance. Federal Reserve Statements: Investors will look for signals from the Fed on monetary policy, particularly regarding future rate hikes or pauses. Any comments related to inflation or labor market strength could sway market sentiment. Outlook: Given these catalysts, heightened volatility is expected. Markets may face headwinds if corporate earnings disappoint or if Fed commentary hints at continued hawkishness. However, stronger-than-expected earnings or dovish Fed signals could provide tailwinds for equities. Overall, next week’s direction will likely depend on a mix of earnings surprises and macroeconomic data outcomes.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by EdgeTools
SP500 - detailed wave countHow Trump's tariff, economic plans could shake the US dollar Reports indicate President-elect Donald Trump may declare a national economic emergency to enact controversial tariff policies under the International Economic Emergency Powers Act (IEEPA). Despite criticisms, Trump remains committed to his proposed economic measures. Yahoo Finance reporter Alexandra Canal examines how the US dollar (DX=F, DX-Y.NYB) might respond to Trump's tariff plans and overall economic agenda, inversely causing a reaction in S&P 500 (^GSPC) earnings growth. To watch more expert insights and analysis on the latest market action, check out more Asking for a Trend here. This post was written by Angel Smith
CME_MINI:ES1!
by POWERFUL_TRADERS