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MES1! trade ideas

2025-01-06 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr sp500 e-mini futures - Neutral. Close does not help anyone. Below daily ema but above 6k. Same reasoning as for dax. We could do a retest or higher before we go lower again. The lower high 6107 will probably hold. Bears want to trade down to 5930 or lower again. Clear trading range price action where the legs inside look very strong, just to crumble shortly after. We are in a very broad bear channel/triangle until bulls can get above 6107 again. comment: 3 legs up are done and I think we have a bigger two-legged correction down now. Bulls stopped the selling above the breakout price 5996 and it’s likely that we get a retest 6050+ before we can go lower. For all shorts the stop is 6108 and for bulls most likely 5797 for now. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 5900 - 6100 bull case: Bulls want to break above 6107 and make new highs again. They had 3 very strong legs up and as long as the bull channel is not broken, they will look for longs near the lower trend line. Their next target is consecutive bull bars above the bear trend line that runs through 6050 and then a retest of 6100. I expect most bulls to have a stop below 5980. Invalidation is below 5980. bear case : Bears need to keep the bear trend line alive and the market below 6040/6050. If they manage that, we have made another lower high and odds will heavily favor the bears to trade back down to at least 5930. Invalidation is above 6107. short term: Neutral 6000 - 6050. Bearish below 6000 for 5930 or lower. Bullish above 6075 for 6100. medium-long term - Update from 2024-12-22: Ultimately 5200-5300 in 2025. Again, rough guess as of now and since we have not seen a strong first bear leg, these targets are the lowest I am willing to give an honest outlook about. If bears surprise and we see a huge leg down to 5500, we will go much lower for the second and third leg. current swing trade : No but shorts with stop 6108 are reasonable. trade of the day: Buying EU open. Bears just stepped aside and we melted higher.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by priceactiontds
ES Futures Trade Idea- NFP Week Big Picture ES Futures: ES Futures are trading above yearly and monthly open at 5,949.25. On the weekly time-frame, we see the inside week on December 23, 2024. This was broken to the downside last week, and it closed back in prior week’s range. However, it is still inside of the FOMC December 2024 week. Sellers have failed to push lower and buyers have been stepping in around 5,875 and 5,850 levels. Looking at Volume Profile since 2024, we note that price is staying above Composite Value Area High. Acceptance of higher prices can be noted at yearly open level where high volume node (HVN) is visible and 6,150 level where another high volume node (HVN) is visible. All time highs are not far off. This week features a busy calendar with major events, including the NFP jobs report and a shortened trading day on January 9th in honor of President Carter. Key Levels: Yearly Open | LIS (Line in Sand): 5,949.25 CVAH: 5,854.25 Neutral Zone: 6,035 - 6,050 Key Support 1: 5,854.25 - 5,864.25 Resistance R1: 6,105 - 6,115 Resistance R2: 6,145 - 6,155 All time highs: 6,184.50 Scenario 1: New All Time Highs ES consolidates above neutral to test R1. Break above R1, will open a path towards testing All time highs this month. Scenario 2: Deeper Pullback Any push from sellers that takes prices below CVAH/Key Support 1 will create further downside pressure to test 5,800 and 5,750 bull supports.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by EdgeClear
The reaction to the Supply Zone is the keyOn this chart, you can see that the topping signal and the formation of a fresh Supply Zone (highlighted in red) initially resulted in only a temporary shallow pullback. However, this pullback did not indicate a reversal of the uptrend. Instead, the market quickly resumed its upward momentum, as evidenced by the appearance of another "Buy re-test" signal shortly after. This is a great example of how a topping signal—which might typically indicate potential exhaustion—can sometimes act as merely a pause in a strong uptrending market, rather than leading to a significant reversal. The trend continued higher as buyers re-established control, with subsequent key supports holding firmly to reinforce bullish strength. Key takeaway: Topping signals and Supply Zones should be evaluated within the broader context of the market's trend. In this case, the bulls demonstrated sustained dominance despite the brief pause, confirming the uptrend's resilience.
CME_MINI:ES1!Education
by CastAwayTrader
How invalidation of a short setup becomes a long setupExplanation of the Trading Setup Based on the Chart: "Short Re-test" Signal Creates Two Scenarios: Plan A: When a "Short re-test" signal appears, it indicates potential resistance and a possible continuation of the downward move. You can short with the expectation that sellers will dominate and push the price lower. Plan B: Alternatively, you prepare for a breakout, where price moves above the resistance formed by the "Short re-test" signal. This indicates a potential trend reversal or continuation of bullish momentum. In this case, Plan B was triggered, leading to a textbook breakout above the resistance zone. Breakout Confirmation and Retest Setup: After the breakout, the price moved higher and provided a "Buy re-test" signal. This is a classic example of a breakout retest pattern, where the price pulls back to test the broken resistance, which now acts as support, before continuing upward. Multiple "Buy Re-test" Signals Strengthen the Trend: Following the initial breakout and retest, the chart shows multiple green "Buy re-test" signals along the way. Each signal marks a new key support level, confirming bullish control and the reliability of the uptrend. Notice how each of the three key supports held, demonstrating strong demand at these levels and affirming the strength of the bulls. Key Takeaways: The initial "Short re-test" signal gave traders the opportunity to anticipate both a short continuation or a bullish breakout. Once the breakout occurred, it was followed by a strong series of retests, giving traders multiple low-risk entry points to go long. Holding key support levels after each "Buy re-test" signal validated the bullish momentum, creating high-confidence long setups as the trend progressed. This setup exemplifies how combining breakout strategies with retest confirmations can lead to profitable trades while maintaining manageable risk. Contact me to get a trial of that Impulse Master indicator
CME_MINI:ES1!Education
by CastAwayTrader
BIG BIG weekI think 7 FED speakers, A lot of tension in the markets, tops mean polarisation, considering reflexivity theory extreme volatility will ensue. A lot of people might think the -0.786 ATH we got before the holidays is the top. I think they are mistaken as seen in the analysis below. There is still legroom for higher, this is a big bet on my part. I have a few contracts on the mag7 (GOOGL, TSLA and META) focusing on GOOGL since they seem to be in the same headwind as S&P Let's see how this plays out
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by Osmanomics
#202501 - priceactiontds - weekly update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr sp500 e-mini futures: Neutral. Much less bearish than dax because the pull-back above 6100 was so strong. We are right below the most important price 6000 and with it the bear case lives or dies. If bulls can go above again and test the bear trend line around 6050, the odds for the bears become really bad. Much more likely outcome then is more sideways inside the triangle. If bears do a strong move below 5900 on Monday/Tuesday, they took control again and odds are decent for the big second leg down. It’s 50/50 for me right now who wins this. comment: 6000 is the big round number for both sides to close above or below. The longer bears can close below, the better the odds for a second leg down. I do think bear’s fumbled their chance for now a bit with the strong bullish close on Friday. If bulls continue higher on Monday we will likely test the bear trend line 6040ish again and it will be interesting to see if big sellers come around again. If the bears would have been stronger, this second bounce at 5870 wouldn’t have happened. The current triangle could continue for couple more days. current market cycle: Trading range key levels: 5870 - 6100 bull case: Strong close on Friday and it’s reasonable to expect more upside on Monday. The current descending triangle pattern has room for a couple of more days. Bulls who scaled into longs with a stop below the October and November low 5797 are making money and bears would need to build bigger selling pressure below 5860 for them to cover. I don’t think many bulls will hold long on Monday if we fail to trade above 6000. Invalidation is below 5860. bear case: Bears are not doing enough below 5800. Bulls printed a decent double bottom to buy. Now they need to stop the market from finding acceptance above 6000 again. If we stay below 6000 and go more sideways between 5860-6000, I do think bears are favored for the second leg down because scaling in bulls can’t hold long if we break below 5860 and late bulls who got trapped above 6100 will likely also give up on a bigger pull-back above 6100 again. Invalidation is above 6100. short term: Neutral between 5900 - 6000, bullish above 6000 for at least 6040 and bearish only below 5860. Shorts near 6050 are great r:r wise and I will take them for a swing. medium-long term - Update from 2024-12-22: Ultimately 5200-5300 in 2025. Again, rough guess as of now and since we have not seen a strong first bear leg, these targets are the lowest I am willing to give an honest outlook about. If bears surprise and we see a huge leg down to 5500, we will go much lower for the second and third leg. current swing trade: None chart update: Nothing
CME_MINI:MES1!
by priceactiontds
SPX [Long term chart - 2025 year end target]Long term bullish uptrend with good conviction. What I see here is at least a consolidation with a bullish bias for the larger part of 2025. Price can be expected to hold and consolidate above 5520 support. A breakout and close above recent graphical swing high at 6152.75 will confirm further upside towards long term year end target at 6850/6870. Momentum indicators are bullish all around which isn't really impactful since the SPX is generally in an upwards trending pattern. Alternatively, Failure to hold above 5520 support and a breakdown followed by a monthly close below this support level could see a bigger drop back down to huge graphical overlap support at 4758/4760 level.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by laughingchartist
Potential ESH idea short termSome handy work, albeit too much at times...? Seems the fib., is somewhat accurate. Personally like to keep the technicals to a minimum, after all, so much is news-driven. The arrows are just reminders of trades that could've/could be taken with, simple Ma's and channel trading focusing on key S&R zones. IMHO for now seems the Bulls are running the show, coming off an impressive year for the S&P. The consensus seems to be plus 700 points for the S&P in 2025. I'm staying long for a move above ATH. Any thoughts or indicators that bode to current charting, and supporting, be humbly appreciated. Best to all in 2025!
CME_MINI:ESH2025Long
by livlfevan
1
#ES_F Day Trading Prep Week 1.05 - 1.10.25Last Week : Sunday Globex opened inside VAH of 6054 - 5933 HTF Range after a Friday failure over upper Edge. Failures over/under HTF Edges usually provide good reaction back to previous Value and Edges which is what we got to start the week as we got a move from VAH to VAL and pushed out to tag lower Edge but the whole move pretty much happened during pre market hours so when we opened up we didn't get continuation, instead we got balancing/covering with weakness since we had supply that was coming out from above, we balanced most of the week between the lower Edge and Value of the range until we built up enough supply to flush it through the Edge, the sell through was strong but we only had enough supply to tag lower VAH where buying came in to push us back inside the Edge. Since it was end of the week we expected more covering to be done, since the Edge held pre market without any more size selling that brought in more covering and momentum buying to push back into our current HTF Ranges Value to close the week. This Week: Last weeks close may seem strong but we have to keep in mind that currently our structure is going through a change on higher time frames, for now Daily is slowly transitioning into a possible longer correction after failing and building supply over the Daily Edge which was 640s - 70s area ( Remember Failures over Edges bring us back to Value AND could target previous Edges, since its daily it can take time to get there but Daily VAL is 846 - 28 and Daily lower Edge is 754 - 24) We are holding under Smaller and Bigger MAs and they are getting closer for a cross which will be signaling a correction lower, seems like this time around we are in for a longer/slower correction that can take time to play out and time to end. Last few weeks with failures over the Daily Edge we have been getting moves back to Daily Value and going back and forth between it's VAH and Mean areas with dips under the Mean that were bought. Daily VAH is around 987 - 67 Area and going into this week if we can't show stability over it by holding over/between 5993 - 6007 areas and get tests at/over above VAH then we would look for price to return under the VAH back inside 973 - 932 Intraday Range and possibly start holding under Daily VAH. Lower Edge 993 - 913 may provide enough support for us to continue balancing over it but we have to keep in mind that holding under current HTF Ranges VAL and building more supply at/over the Edge can bring in more weakness and if we get through Intraday area of 932 - 27 with more supply above that can give us sells towards lower VAH again and possibly this time around we can try to get inside lower Value again, we have swing stops to watch out for under 850s which if taken could provide more selling towards lower VAL and possibly moves out of it IF we will have enough supply. We do have that area of 800 - 750 and next Edge below us which was our distribution balance for some time at one point, so we have to watch out what we do that as we may hold above it or price may want to try and get inside it again as that is an area where it found balance before. Of course all of this we have to watch area by area for continuation as we may keep getting buying at and under current Edge but things are set up for these moves if we want to go at least for lower Value but we MUST take out key areas for any continuation as price may find balance around current Value and stay in this range if we are not ready to move yet. For price to remain stable we would need to be able to hold inside current Value without getting back under VAL that could keep us stable enough to balance inside the Value in current intraday range of 6018 - 78 which so far we haven't showed acceptance in, and for any strength beyond that we would need a strong push over above VAH and hold over it to start building new cost basis, even if we get moves to or over current VAH it's a place to be careful as we can keep seeing sells from there back inside Value.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by HollowMn
Possible cluster for Short on SP500An area I am closely monitoring lies between 6478 and 6516, particularly if the current high of 6152.75 (marked on December 16) is breached. Analyzing the swing starting from the low of 3502 in October 2022, the major tops have followed a distinctive pattern in percentage terms: 3/40 5/40 8/40 13/40 21/40 The pattern suggests that each subsequent high is obtained by summing the numerators of the previous upward moves (e.g., 3 + 5 = 8, 8 + 5 = 13, and so on) while the denominator remains fixed at 40. Following this logic, the next high should be 34/40 (21 + 13). I am confident in the reliability of this pattern because when I sum the numerators (21 + 34) and the denominators (40 + 40), the resulting level (55/80) aligns with a minor high. Similarly, by summing 55/80 and 21/40, using the same logic, I arrive at 76/120, which corresponded to a very significant high in July 2024. While these levels may not be perfectly precise, they represent key areas of interest that warrant close attention. If you are interested in this type of analysis, particularly when integrated with GANN angles, feel free to contact me privately at this email: drake36@inwind.it.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by bregall1965
1
Weekly Trading Plan: ES Futures 1/6/2025Market Context The ES Futures market is currently balancing, with a defined pivot point at 5964. This plan focuses on trading around the pivot while targeting key upside and downside levels. We’ll also prepare for potential failure scenarios where the market tests beyond key levels but fails to sustain momentum. Key Levels Pivot (Midpoint): 5964 Upside Targets: 6056 6107 6146 Downside Targets: 5875 5819 5785 🧑‍💼 Strategy Overview Objective: Trade within the balancing market, utilizing the pivot (5964) as a directional bias. Prepare for possible breakout failures near key levels. Risk Management: Place stops just outside extreme levels to mitigate breakout traps. Execution Plan: Execute trades systematically based on price action confirmation near pivot and target levels. Trade Execution Plan Pivot Zone: 5964 If price holds above 5964: Look for long opportunities targeting upside levels. If price breaks and holds below 5964: Look for short opportunities targeting downside levels. Upside Trade Setup: Entry: Enter long positions near 5964 on confirmation of support (e.g., bullish candlesticks or strong buying momentum). Targets: 6056 6107 6146 Downside Trade Setup: Entry: Enter short positions near 5964 on confirmation of resistance (e.g., bearish candlesticks or strong selling momentum). Targets: 5875 5819 5785 ⚡ Failure Scenarios Looking Above 6146 and Failing: Scenario: The market breaches 6146, signaling a breakout, but quickly reverses back below. Trade Opportunity: Short the market on confirmation of failure (e.g., rejection candles, increasing sell volume). Targets: 6107 → 6056 → Pivot (5964) Stop Loss: Place stops just above 6146 to avoid prolonged breakout risk. Looking Below 5785 and Failing: Scenario: The market breaches 5785, signaling a downside breakout, but quickly reverses back above. Trade Opportunity: Long the market on confirmation of failure (e.g., rejection candles, increasing buy volume). Targets: 5819 → 5875 → Pivot (5964) Stop Loss: Place stops just below 5785 to avoid prolonged breakout risk. Fake Breakout from Pivot (5964): Scenario: The market shows a breakout from 5964 but fails to sustain momentum and reverses. Trade Opportunity: Trade in the direction of the failed breakout, targeting the opposite side of the range. Stop Loss: Place stops just outside the failed breakout level. 💡 Risk Management Position Sizing: Risk no more than 1-2% of your account balance per trade. Tighten stops to minimize loss in failure scenarios. Break-Even Adjustments: Move stops to break-even once the first target is achieved. 📈 Trade Monitoring Order Flow Analysis: Monitor volume and order flow near key levels for signs of breakout or failure. Market Context Update: Adapt the plan if the market establishes a new range or breaks out of balance. 💰 Exit Plan Take profits incrementally at each target. Exit immediately if the market signals sustained breakout momentum beyond extreme levels. 🔔 Stay disciplined and adapt to price action! #ESFutures #WeeklyPlan #BalanceZone #RiskManagement
CME_MINI:ES1!
by dhjesus
Happy New Year for S&P???While there have been no signficant negative moving average crosses on the Daily chart (apart from being near to the 100 Day SMA again),the 4 Hours charts are showing signs of negative rotation with the 20 Ma crossing beneath the 50 MA and the 100 starting to cross below the 200 MA. Short term, it's tempting to sell above 5950 with a stop above 5962.The prior order block level above at 5980-6116 is now important resistance and a close above it might signal that 5865 acts as an important swing low. Conversely a daily close beneath 5900 implies a test of 5965 is on the card and even potentially augurs a hurried visit to the 200 day MA level at 5716. My hope is to stay patient and get short at decent levels with tight stops until the market tells me otherwise. Remember there is a long bias at play in S&P and New Year Inflows might temper the conviction of the most enthusiastic bears. Happy New Year Everyone!
CME_MINI:MES1!
by pauljmoran60