ESM2025, go lower to go higher?What do you track? fundamentals? technicals?
Investor sentiment, is confusing at times,
#tradewhatyousee
MES1! trade ideas
Overnight consolidation? into demand area?Maybe, maybe we are in a demand area, and consolidating, the reaction or change of character needs to show strength in order to go higher, otherwise, run the stops below in order to go higher, lots of action to take
SPY to pullback AFTER bullish Thursday Friday Gap Fill TargetI was initially skeptical of the bearish case because we were able to stand strong against the Moody's downgrade, but I guess all good things come to an end, at least temporarily, especially with the bond yields spiking higher today.
I drew a channel off the downtrend and I think it is pretty wide, so I would expect us to follow it at least for the next week, obviously if we break to the upside then you can probably put the bearish concerns to rest, but until then with the lower low I think we are decidedly bearish for now, especially if we make a lower high to end the week (pretty likely)
I wouldn't pile into puts just yet, as that is what the greedy retail trader is doing, and we all know how that works, also seasonally the Thursday Friday leading into memorial day are usually bullish, combined with Bitcoin making new highs, I think we will actually have relatively neutral to bullish price action to close the week.
The Tuesday-Thursday after memorial day are seasonally a bit more bearish, so I think that is where we will see a surprise sell-off and possible fill of that huge bar around the 5720 area.
There is a lot of price action between 5600 and 5700 so I think the support there will be strong, this is only a pullback and I am still bullish long term.
Good Luck and Happy Trading.
S&P ES Long setup target 5963.50 / Calls SPY target 596Fibonacci technical analysis : S&P 500 E-mini Futures CME_MINI:ES1! has already found support at the Fib level 78.6% (5623.50) of my Down Fib. Last Daily candle (May 2) has closed above retracement Fib level 78.6%. My Down Fib guides me to look for CME_MINI:ES1! to eventually go up to hit first target at Fib level 127.2% (5963.50).
CME_MINI:ES1! – Target 1 at 127.2% (5963.50), Target 2 at 161.8% (6205.50) and Target 3 at 178.6 (6322.75)
Stop loss slightly below the 61.8% retracement Fib level (5506.25).
Option Traders : My AMEX:SPY chart Down Fib shows price to go up to Target 1 at 127.2% (595.82), Target 2 at 161.8% (620.50) and Target 3 at 178.6 (632.50)
Stop loss slightly below the 61.8% retracement Fib level (549).
Enjoy the trading process and take time to smell the roses🌹
MES Short🔴 High Risk Short
Bearish Market Structure Shift caused by price meeting origin of Daily MSS from Mar04. Trade mapped on the hourly timeframe; focusing on impulsive swing high at $5956.25 that created MSS.
Entry on measured 61.8% fib retracement @ $5914.75.
TP1: $5873.25 (1R)
TP2: $5822.25 (2.25R)
Second take profit level lines up with both 200SMA + bullish 4H channel support , adding confluence to trade idea. It stands to reason price will retest the support of a longstanding bullish channel.
Notes:
•Stops moved to BE once TP1 hit
•Trade is high-risk due to SL having no significant higher timeframe importance.
The reason I’m focusing on this leg of price action rather than the 4H high at $5993.25, is because this hourly high specifically created the higher timeframe MSS. It suggests there’s an unusually high amount of sellers at that level.
Looking to buy ESES is sustaining bullish structure on 1H and 4H. Currently in discount zone. ES swept liquidity below daily lows, filled 4H FVG and starting to reverse. 1:3 RR long trade potential.
ID: 2025 - 0115.20.2025
Trade #11 of 2025 executed.
Trade entry at 150 DTE (days to expiration).
Excellent fills this morning, well under mid.
Target profit is 5% ROI
Happy Trading!
-kevin
The bottom wick of the April candleThe acceleration of the uptrend following the March 2020 pandemic crash and .... the bottom wick of the April monthly candle is larger than the entire range of every other monthly candle, except for March 2020....that pandemic crash...
Where is the Stock Market going tomorrow? Trade Journal 05/19/25EOD accountability report: +500
Sleep: 3.5 hours , Overall health: tired
What was my initial plan?
Short if market went under 5920, long with X7 buy signals, and short at 5968 area, and long if we retrace to 5925s
overall market went accordingly to Bullish structure and x7 buy signal. that's the whole reason of the system, to let you know what the market is and all you need to do is follow accordingly instead of fighting it.
Daily Trade recap based on VX Algo System
— 7:00 AM Market Structure flipped bullish on VX Algo X3!
— 9:36 AM VXAlgo X7 Buy Signal, ticker = NQ1!, price = 21281.25
— 2:00 PM VXAlgo ES X3 Sell Signal
— 2:35 PM Market Structure flipped bearish on VX Algo X3!
Next day plan--> Above 5920/5900 = Bullish, if we lose 48min support at 5928 --> 5875 next
Video Recaps -->https://www.tradingview.com/u/WallSt007/#published-charts
#MES INTRADAY ANALYSISThis chart outlines my percieved support and resistance levels based on price action and volume observation,I also use VWAP and AVWAP to identify potential value areas.The 65 MA on 30 min chart approximates the 5 day MA (Shout out to Brian Shannon of Alphatrends for alerting me to this) I also pay attention to daily settlement prices and of course Initial Balance highs and lows.
Yearly Open in Play — Is This the Real Bull or Just a Bounce?CME_MINI:ES1!
Macro Recap
Late Friday, Moody’s lowered the US’s sovereign rating from AAA to Aa1. This reflects a unanimous downgrade of the US, joining S&P and Fitch in stripping the US of its AAA status.
Would this result in a sell-off?
In our analysis, and consensus from the Street, is that it will be contained since the downgrade puts Moody’s in the same camp as S&P and Fitch.
There are talks of renegotiating UK–EU trade deals, which has boosted cable.
On the geopolitical side, not much has changed. Ceasefire talks are ongoing but stuck in neutral. No new catalysts—yet.
The spotlight, however, is firmly on the Fed. Over the weekend, President Trump called on Chair Powell to cut rates “before it’s too late,” echoing a post from April 17th where he labeled Powell’s speech “a complete mess” and added, “Powell’s termination cannot come fast enough.”
With a packed schedule of Fed speakers this week, the real question is whether they’ll double down on the Fed’s independence—or bend toward political gravity, especially with Trump reportedly eyeing the top job.
Economic data is light. That puts full attention on the Fed and headline risk. Traders should stay nimble and alert. Momentum could shift fast.
Markets are now pricing in two cuts of 25 bps each for September and December 2025.
This is very different from market pricing one month ago, when reciprocal tariffs were announced.
Monitoring rate cut expectations is another key theme this week, with multiple Fed speakers scheduled.
ES Futures
ES Futures have been one-time framing up — i.e., creating higher lows — on the weekly timeframe.
ES Futures have also created higher highs.
Key Levels:
• March 2025 High: 6052.50
• 2025 Yearly Open: 6001.25
• Previous Week High: 5977.50
• Previous Week Mid: 5856
Bull Market—or Just a Bear Bounce?
That’s the question traders are asking.
From our perspective, this looks like a recovery from a trade policy shock. The market took the hit, recalibrated, and bounced back.
But let’s not get ahead of ourselves. After a move this strong, some pause is natural. We’re watching for potential consolidation or profit-taking, especially with price action still holding below the yearly open.
Caution is warranted here—momentum’s in play, but the structure hasn’t fully confirmed the shift.
Scenario 1: Another Up Week, Capped by Yearly Open
In this scenario, the rally will be contained as the yearly open remains a strong pivot and resistance zone.
The LIS (Line in the Sand) for short trade opportunities is the yearly open pivot.
Scenario 2: Range-Bound Week
In this scenario, we expect markets to consolidate, remaining above last week’s low and finding support at the prior week’s mid-range.
We will look to initiate longs from the previous week’s mid-range, looking for level-to-level scalping opportunities in a range-bound market.
Where is the Stock Market going tomorrow? & Trade Journal 05/16EOD accountability report: +1106
Sleep: 6 hours , Overall health: Good
We keep chugging up for no reason, breaking past all resistance points on fume but friday after hours shows that we are starting to lose cruical supports and they were just squeezing the bears.
Daily Trade recap based on VX Algo System
— 5/16/2025 9:00 AM Market Structure flipped bearish on VX Algo X3!
— 5/16/2025 9:50 AM VXAlgo YM X1 Buy Signal
— 5/16/2025 12:03 PM Market Structure flipped bullish on VX Algo X3!
— 5/16/2025 1:40 PM VXAlgo ES X1 Sell Signal(double sell) C+ set up
— 5/16/2025 3:30 PM VXAlgo NQ X1 Sell Signal (Triple sell) B+ set up
Next day plan--> Above 5920/5900 = Bullish, if we lose 5920 --> 48min support at 5900, if 5900 is lost then we can go to 5800.
Video Recaps -->https://www.tradingview.com/u/WallSt007/#published-charts
ai 517taDuring the week of May 12–16, the S&P 500 E-mini futures (ES) displayed a cautious but resilient tone as price action consolidated near all-time highs. The market reflected a balance between optimism around earnings and caution ahead of upcoming macroeconomic data. Volatility contracted through the middle of the week but picked up slightly on Friday as traders repositioned for the following week.
ES: Testing Yearly Open at 5950Current Market Structure
Market completed successful retest of 2024 value area low (~20% correction from ATH)
We are currently engaged in value discovery journey back toward developing POC near ATH
Yearly open at ~5950 serves as current battleground level.
Friday's Action Analysis
Multiple rotations between yearly open (5950) and value area low (5925-5930)
Staying within and expanding above yesterdays upper distribution
Bulls eventually won the day, pushing +20 points to 5975
Key concern: Post-close liquidation break erased gains, returning to 5950
Suggests weak hands accumulated during the drift higher
Technical Structure Issues
White House announcement-driven moves created weak structure below current levels
Multiple unfilled gaps and single prints underneath
Weekly & Monthly VPOCs (virgin points of control) present structural vulnerabilities
Path of least resistance technically up, but lacking conviction
While the path of least resistance is upward, we really don't have a lot of people looking to start new positions here. Unless other timeframe traders come in and start finding value, we're just going to chop around. The market wants to get back to that POC near the highs, but it's getting artificial help every time we hit a pivotal point which is creating weak structure underneath us.
ES: Testing Yearly Open at 5950
Current Market Structure
Market completed successful retest of 2024 value area low (~20% correction from ATH)
We are currently engaged in value discovery journey back toward developing POC near ATH
Yearly open at ~5950 serves as current battleground level.
Friday's Action Analysis
Multiple rotations between yearly open (5950) and value area low (5925-5930)
Staying within and expanding above yesterdays upper distribution
Bulls eventually won the day, pushing +20 points to 5975
Key concern: Post-close liquidation break erased gains, returning to 5950
Suggests weak hands accumulated during the drift higher
Technical Structure Issues
White House announcement-driven moves created weak structure below current levels
Multiple unfilled gaps and single prints underneath
Weekly & Monthly VPOCs (virgin points of control) present structural vulnerabilities
Path of least resistance technically up, but lacking conviction
While the path of least resistance is upward, we really don't have a lot of people looking to start new positions here. Unless other timeframe traders come in and start finding value, we're just going to chop around. The market wants to get back to that POC near the highs, but it's getting artificial help every time we hit a pivotal point which is creating weak structure underneath us.
Confident close.The S&P 500 on Friday had a confident close going into the weekend. The challenge will be follows through on Monday to maintain this momentum to the upside.
Time to short MES (S&P500) - CRASH in comingThe assumptions are:
1) The economy is slowing down. Employment data will show it shortly and convincingly. Therefore a summer or fall crash is very likely.
2) The top for S&P 500 is already in. There is always the possibility for a melt up before the crash but I think the melt up has already occured.
3) The next drop will fall below the 2022 low and above or near the covid low.
4) This is obviously not going to be as clean as depicted but the drop is going to be fast and between 40 to 50% from the 2024 top.
5) This is a swing trade over a 6 months to 18 months timeframe.
6) Trump is going to keep messing with the tariffs until the damage to the economy takes a very long time to recover. Markets will discount this at a higher interest rate which will be very harsh for the markets.
I am starting to take positions now and will add if it moves up.
Bearish Divergence. Pullback Pending Bullish long term on S&P of course. This idea is shorter term only and I am not even taking a position. Developed bear div on a full week scale. I think a decent pullback will happen over the next week or couple weeks. Then we resume bigger picture upward movement
Can buyers provide a confident close?With the positive close on Thursday the expectation now is can buyers provide a confident close above 5970 to 80 on Friday. This would imply that buyers are willing to hold onto a position going into the weekend.
AMP Futures - How to use the data windowIn this idea we will show you how to access pin point data information for specific areas on your chart using Tradingview.
How to Use Drawing Tools on TradingViewThis tutorial video discusses why and how traders use different types of trading tools, how to access the trading tools in Tradingview, and a few examples of how and why you might apply them.
Learn more about using Tradingview to trade futures with Optimus Futures:
optimusfutures.com
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ES or SP500 Futures (Y25.P2.E1). Bullish macroHi Traders,
Some time back we called this out in our forum to go long and our anchored vwap approach was ideal.
All the best,
S.SAri
S&P 500, is a return to the all-time high reliable?Introduction: The equity market has been on a bullish upswing since mid-April (we invite you to reread our bearish analysis of the VIX at the end of April), against a backdrop of trade diplomacy, particularly between China and the USA. Now that the S&P 500 index has returned to equilibrium since the start of the year (i.e., its annual performance is no longer negative), is it credible from a fundamental and technical point of view to expect the equity market to move towards its all-time record in the coming weeks?
1) A trade appeasement that forged the bullish rally
The United States and China have announced a temporary cut in their respective tariffs, marking a major de-escalation in their trade war. Since May 14, Washington has reduced its taxes on Chinese products from 145% to 30%, including those on fentanyl, while Beijing has lowered its duties from 125% to 10%. This agreement offers a 90-day period in which to pursue negotiations, with no guarantee of success, but with the aim of avoiding a return to tariff increases in the short term.
This truce had an immediate effect on the markets: US equities rebounded strongly, while China suspended certain retaliatory measures, notably on rare earths. On the other hand, the surtaxes put in place during Trump's first term remain in place. Both countries wish to avoid a total economic breakdown, even if the United States maintains a policy of protection in sectors deemed strategic (semi-conductors, steel, pharmaceuticals).
The United States wants to reduce its trade deficit with Beijing, and has hinted that the truce could be extended if dialogue remains constructive. This episode is a reminder, however, that relations remain tense and that a truly comprehensive agreement will take time to materialize, just like the first trade war over the years 2018/2019. Despite everything, appeasement and trade diplomacy appear to be convincing fundamental factors for considering erasing the losses of last March/April's bearish shock. But it will take more in terms of fundamentals to consider surpassing the S&P 500's all-time record, which currently stands at 6166 points on the future contract.
2) Corporate profit forecasts remain optimistic
Of all the fundamental factors driving equity market trends, there is one that has a dominant influence: corporate profit forecasts.
Below, you can see two charts that illustrate the continued marked optimism regarding profit expectations of the companies that make up the S&P500 index. Successful trade diplomacy is essential to sustain these optimistic expectations and enable the S&P500 to return to its all-time high.
3) Reaching the all-time high on the S&P 500 is credible according to technical analysis of the financial markets
The technical rally in the S&P 500 future contract originated close to the major support at 4800 points, the former all-time high for the year 2021 and chartist guarantor of the underlying uptrend.
The rebound has taken the form of a “V-shaped trough” chart configuration, with a bullish gap recently opened in daily data and the 200-day moving average (in dark blue on the chart below, which displays daily Japanese candlesticks).
Technical analysis suggests that the market can continue to trend towards its all-time record as long as the 5700/5800 chart support is preserved. A breach of this support level on a daily closing basis would invalidate this market view.
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