20240920 ESThe new HH is in place and some downside reaction has been created. Nevertheless I anticipate the PMS to bring the upside move to raid bs. Ideally to see some SandD during LHS and spooling to the upside during PMS and particularly the Final hour. The ideal scenario is on the chart. Longby Yoo_Cool0
ES 10:50-11:10 Macro $CME_MINI:ES1! Run on sellstops another Day in the Lab on a Friday CME_MINI:ES1!Short18:35by Sammy-Fx0
ES/SPX levels and targets sept 20thWednesday around stock market close, ES gave us a huge long setup after A failed breakdown at 5680. Targets were 5779 and 5797, and we nailed 5797 to the tee for new all time highs. Now it’s all about consolidation. OPEX Friday today, so *don’t overtrade*. These days are notoriously known for blowing accounts and “pinning” of prices As of now: 5765 and 5754 are supports. Buyers have to hold to keep 5774, 5782, and 5797-99 back in play. If 5754 breaks, 5737 we go by ESMorg0
ES Overnight Price aCtion Review 9-20-24Going over ES Price action overnight looking for clues the market is giving us to help us pick high probability trades. NO A+ setups NO trades today. Friday is Mental Capital Preservation Day. mostly doing charting/reviewing past week trades and grading them. we dont get 2 confirming signals we wont be trading today.03:08by BobbyS8130
Average Range Levels Long1/3 ADR+ & 1/3AWR+ was my entry and target was 5ADR! This is really great long model you will find success with.Educationby Keclikk1
ES levels & targets sept 19thYesterday, 5680 acted as a cash machine. As mentioned in my plan for today, longs triggered at the 5680 hold on the classic failed breakdown of Tuesday’s low, with ATHs as the target—and now we’re up over 100 points. As of now: Secure profits and hold onto the runners. Looking at 5797 and 5805 as the next targets up for buyers, with 5759-63 as key support that must hold to keep this leg up in play. by ESMorg0
OHLC Statistical Mapping FOMCRinse & Repeat Bullish model: + Manipulation entry and I was targeting +Distributionby Keclikk1
ES Range Expectations after the FOMC & PresserTradingView keeps crashing when I try to record a video so we're going for a chart only update this time. Today we're again looking at ES e-mini futures for an expectation of the amount of range we could do on this FOMC data release. We take a look at both the upside and downside to get a view on where the boundaries of normality would be to aid us in framing intraday trades. The Average Daily Range on ES at the moment is about 75pts (the daily ATR is about the same since the futures don't tend to gap much). So far today we've done 27pts of range... about half of the average of 51pts for the first 4 hours of the day. Volumes are also low (about 60% of normal) as we'd expect going into an FOMC report at 420k vs the average of 682k. So, what to expect for the FOMC release? I tend to use 50pts above/below the Volume POC (which is dead on the 5700 level today) as my benchmark for larger news events like this and that is the first level above/below... so 5750 or 5650. But if we get carried away (and we could today) then a full ATR move of 75pts actually lines up nicely with previous support and resistance areas. We'll tune back in later to see how this plays out.by JeffBoccaccio0
Long trade (1min TF observation) Buyside trade Wed 18th Sept 24 12.14 pm LND to NY Session Entry 15min TF Entry 5692.25 Profit level 5707.25 (0.26%) Stop level 5690.25 (0.4%) RR 7.5Longby davidjulien369Updated 0
ES OverNight Price Action REview FOMC 9-Going over the price action Overnight prior to FOMC looking for clues as to what the market is telling us. risk down and only A+ Setups today. 01:38by BobbyS8130
SPX Data Market Analysis| ICT | Sep 18Pre Market Analysis for Sep 18'th using Statistics and Data to drive a 70%+ historical accuracy with all analysis methods. Inner Circle Concepts Trader using Stats to analyze the stock market. Topics: - Yesterday's Results - Today's Projections05:33by DIY_Trades0
[ES] S&P500 Short ScenarioOn this idea, I want to share the potentiality of a big down side move for the next weeks or months. Fundamentally I am not very optimistic and looking for a big crash of our economy. Regarding this, I try to enter into short position with very little risk and hold it for a long time. Here is my first entry I took today on the US Session with a TLB + Rejection. Great Trade !Shortby ArnoSG1
ES Overnight Price Action REview 9-17-24Going over the price action ES overnight looking for clues as to what the market is telling us. always know where you'll get out if you're wrong. 04:30by BobbyS8130
ES Inverse Head & Shoulders Target Hit + TriangleI recently posted about an inverse H&S on ES as the right shoulder was forming and it ended up playing out even though I was skeptical at the time. We can measure the projected target by taking the distance from the bottom of the head to the neck line and measuring that from the breakout point. That target was around 5700 which has been hit (note the contract rollover.) On top of that target we have the previous double top/ATH and trendline resistance. The trendline is the top end of a triangle shown here with the gray lines. Once again we have multiple resistance and confluence for a rejection. However, this also means that if it breaks to the upside it will have that much more momentum and lead to more short squeezes. If the triangle breaks to the upside, first target is naturally going to be ATH. I'd be careful of a rejection there and look for the triangle to hold on a retest for more longs. If the retest doesn't hold, I'd interpret that as bearish and start looking for shorts. It's a big week so I expect this to lead to a break up or down soon. We're at the very top end so first downside target is the bottom end of the triangle and then the neck line.by AdvancedPlays0
Full ES Trading Plan For Sep 17th** The Levels in this section all now reference the December (ESZ2024) contract prices.** Plan for Tuesday: • Supports are: 5690, 5684, 5680 (major), 5671, 5662-64 (major), 5654 (major), 5650, 5645, 5639 (major), 5632, 5627 (major), 5620, 5614 (major), 5607, 5598, 5588, 5579 (major), 5573 (major), 5568, 5562, 5548-52 (major), 5544, 5532, 5523-26 (major). • In terms of lvls I’d bid direct: Conditions remain extremely poor and this partially attributed to contract rollover and partially attributed to the market waiting on FOMC Wednesday. Setups are scarce, and overtraders will continue to be punished badly. In these conditions it is essential to plan your trades and trade your plan, then sit on profits after. Generally speaking everything between 5680 and 5702 or so is pure chop now. If you over-trade in this zone, you will lose money and the only attractive trades in this situation are typically failed breakdowns, and we saw plenty today below 5680. For tomorrow 5680 remains support. This level is very well tested now and no longer reliable at all now. I won’t be bidding it directly, but if we dip down to 5671 then recover it may be actionable for a final time. As I warned yesterday, we have essentially rallied everyday now since last Wednesday. In this situation , rug pulls can come out of the blue, and it can occur anytime now. It does not mean that we stop taking longs, but it means we should be cautious now until the market “gets it out of its system”. My longs today were only partially sized and any future longs will remain so until a rug pull happens (which is inevitable) and plays out for a deep sell. We do not predict when this will occur, but we are prepared to react. Below 5680 is 5662-64. Once 5680 fails we could easily end up in “knife catch mode” so I am not overly interested in buying supports. If we test 5664 though and reclaim today’s low, it may present an attractive level to level move. If we get a proper dip tomorrow, both 5627 and 5614 would be spots I’d consider small knife catches at. As always, no rush, you can wait to see how price reacts at the zone especially if we are knifing into it at full speed. • Resistances are: 5696 (major), 5703 (major), 5709, 5720 (Major), 5724, 5734 (major), 5739, 5748, 5754-56 (major), 5765, 5770, 5774, 5781-85 (major), 5794, 5802 (major), 5815, 5829-32 (major), 5840, 5847, 5859 (major), 5865, 5877, 5881 (major). As readers know I don’t short strength in ES so I won’t be shorting any of the above levels (win rate for shorting when bulls control is just too dismal for me even attempt). For those who have a higher risk tolerance than me though, 5734 would be one spot to consider trying shorts. • Buyers case tomorrow: As I said on Friday buyers remain fully in control and we could easily pullback to 5552 over 100 points lower and it would just be a healthy, normal pullback after this size of rally. When I talk buyers case tomorrow, it is therefore just in the very short-term. For tomorrow, the buyers case would just involve ES filling out the 5702 to 5680 range more. We could ping pong and failed break this down many more times. As long as this structure is in tact though, it is a bull flag and would simply resolve us higher. This would ultimately target 5720, then 5732. If that big resistance can clear, we ultimately head up to 5756, then to re-test the ATH. I normally give spots to add on strength but given this very tight range, I cannot responsibly do this without seeing the action in real time as the zone is too choppy. Perhaps tests of 5680 that recover 5690 may be a concept of interest. • Sellers case tomorrow: The sellers case here is only short-term obviously, and begins on the failure of 5690. As I say everyday, there is a strong disclaimer that goes with these types of trades. These types of level loss shorts below a support are called breakdown trades. My core edge is failed breakdowns, and the reason is this is an edge is the vast majority of break downs (80%) trap. They take great skill to execute, and even when done well by a trader who has mastered these setups, one should expect over 60% to fail (they are low win rate, high R/R trades. 2 or 3 in a row will fail, then the 4th will pay out huge). *If you don’t like these odds and cant tolerate being trapped - simply don’t take them. I consider breakdown trades to be an advanced setup type so if a newer subscriber, there is nothing wrong with passing on these*. As always I don’t chase. I will warn that this is a very complex short as this is a trappy zone. Unless you are very experienced with this type of entry, do not try this entry and wait for a more established downtrend to form. Since the 5680 level is already fairly well tested, we could just flush it directly. Ideally, I’d want to see some sort of bounce and/or failed breakdown though in that 5671 to 5680 cluster again before trying short. After this reaction, perhaps 5669 would be an entry, but it would have to go below wherever the real time structure is formed after any bounce attempt. Be sure to take profits level to level, as we could very easily just pop down a level then squeeze 60 or 70 points. In summary for tomorrow: We are chopping ahead of FOMC. My general lean is always to defer to the trend. 5680 to 5703 is a pure chop zone and as long as 5680 holds (or recovers on any traps below) we can work higher to 5720, then 5734. If 5680 fails, ES needs to sell before FOMC (and for buyers, this is the healthiest thing possible).by ESMorg1
OHLC Statistical Mapping LongWhen long, the simplest model is +Manipulation to -Manipulation SL was placed below 1/3ADR-by Keclikk1
2024-09-16 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Since today was a very slow day, my weekly update is more interesting than today’s daily update (in case you haven’t read it). Indexes - Disappointment for the bulls was my assumption for today and that we got. Boring sideways movement in tight trading ranges. DJI was the only market with strength, printing a new ath but closing below 41700, so probably mostly a liquidity grap. Wednesday we have FOMC and I don’t expect markets to move far away from their current ranges. sp500 e-mini futures comment: Small green doji on the daily chart. Not much to comment about. Market closed 11 points above the open price and mean reversion was profitable today. I expect the triangle on the daily to hold until FOMC. current market cycle: trading range (triangle) key levels: 5400 -5670 bull case: Please see my weekly update. Invalidation is below 5540. bear case: Bears got 1 decent bear bar on the 1h chart and bulls bought it. Until bears can print 3-4 consecutive bear bars on the 1h tf, they have nothing going for them. Best they can hope for is to stay below 5670 Invalidation is above 5670. short term: Neutral between 5600-5670 and I don’t expect a break of this range until FOMC. medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-01 : Very much like my outlook in dax. Trading range on the daily chart and we are at the highs. We could make higher ones or not. Does not matter much. I expect 5000 to be hit again in 2024. current swing trade: Nope trade of the day: Buying bar 39 low was perfect but any bar from 39-46 was ok. Market clearly did not want to go lower then open price is always an obvious magnet on ranging days.by priceactiontds0
ES (S&P 500 Futures) continue with the UptrendOn ES (S&P 500 Futures) , it's nice to see a strong buying reaction at the price 5570. There's a significant accumulation of contracts in this area, indicating strong buyer interest. I believe that buyers who entered at this level will defend their long positions. If the price returns to this area, strong buyers will likely push the market up again. The S/R zone from the past and high volume cluster are the main reasons for my decision to go long on this trade. Happy trading Trader Daleby Trader_Dale1
Combined US Indexes - Bullish Flip?Previously though that there would be some volatility and a bearish trend forming with a previous low revisited, BUT NO... volatility popped and then so did the indexes. They bounced to meet the trendline resistance to end the week. In the same effort, closed the Gap as well. Meanwhile, MACD and VolDiv are turning upwards in support. Current flip to Bullish Confirms with breakout of trendline (after Gap closure) Watch these week's price action... Longby Auguraltrader0
SP500**SP500:** This week, the price is expected to fall after touching the engulfing formed last week.Shortby simaoxceps0
$MES1! 4hr AnalysisWhat's up ya'll?! Based on what I'm seeing, the Micro E-mini S&P 500 Index Future ( CME_MINI:MES1! ) on the 4hr is in a consolidation zone between 5,592.50 and 5,661 (68.5 ticks). I have marked the chart with a bearish Fibonacci retracement from ATH on Jul 16th to the low on Aug 5th. If price goes below 5,619 (mid-point of previous day ), then there is a possibility price will run back down to the 0.786 mark at 5,592.50 (26.5 ticks). If price surpasses the heavy resistance at around the 0.9 bearish Fibonacci (5,661) then next price target is all-time highs at 5,721.25. A lot will be based on the economic and financial news this week.by Brandonthrives0
s&p in expanding formation, likely a higher high incominghey. s&p is creating a lower low, then as buyers surpassed the previous low, buyers proved themselves, they likely will go to the previous high and create a higher high as price 'breathes' how high? i dont know, breakeven at previous high and attempt a 1:4 look at this chart on 5m timeframe , then divergences will make sense as confluences, we dont care about h bear, its uptrend so we can ignore that, we like the bullish onesLongby user28394090
ES - There's Not A Lot Of Meat On The Bone I fancy the chances of $5,375 later on next week. Unfinished business @ the HTF volume imbalance.Short17:19by LegendSinceUpdated 1