I think we're topped out for the momentI'm expecting further pullback next week leading into fed rate decision. Gaan Fan seems to be working well and break below red would suggest that we're topped out for this cycle.
MES1! trade ideas
ES Price Action Review 7-29-24Going over the RTH of the ES looking for clues as to how we could have traded better and how we want to position for tonight and tomorrow.
AMP Futures - Trailing stop - TradingView MobileIn this idea we will demonstrate how to use the trailing stop with Tradingview Mobile app.
The market in waitingAlthough the S&P 500 structure is bearish, the expectation for Tuesday is a sideways move because the market is waiting for Wednesday's Fed announcement.
Opening Session Review ES 7-29-24REviewing the morning session looking for clues the market was leaving us and how we could have played it better and how to position for the 2nd half of the day.
SP500**SP500:**
This week's forecast is for the price to fall to the zone between 5259.50 and 5217.75, coinciding with the value of a lost pivot at 5234.50.
Es Levels & targets July 29thExcellent follow through for buyers after fridays close. On Friday, one of my targets were 5528. We got there, then dipped. Right before the close, we got a failed breakdown of 5498 level which shot us right back up to 5528. Been basing up here since.
As of now: Hold runners if you have them. 5519, 5502 are supports. Staying above keeps 5536, 5542, 5550-55 in play. 5502 fails, sellers retest 5483 area. Sellers are still in short-term control, and will stay this way until 5550-55 reclaims. Until then, all longs shall be treated with small size and high caution. Be very aggressive with profit takes level to level in this scenario when longing.
20240726 ESI anticipate more upside potential for a move above the last high and bs raid to be made. The further development is anticipated to be closely connected with DXY possible reversal to the upside. In such case I anticipate reversal in stocks to the downside during PMS.
ES Overnight Price ACtion REview 7-29-24Going over the ES Price Action sunday night to Monday pre-market looking for clues to what the market is telling us and how we want to position for the day.
ES Day Trading analysisOn ES , it's nice to see a strong sell-off from the price of 5545. It's also encouraging to observe a strong volume area where a lot of contracts are accumulated.
I believe that sellers from this area will defend their short positions. When the price returns to this area, strong sellers will push the market down again.
The downtrend combined with the strong volume area along with the strong S/R area from the past are my main reasons for this short trade.
Happy trading,
Dale
ES Short IdeaI'll look to short ES or get SPY puts if it retests this uptrend from April it recently broke with a stop above. First profit target is about where price is now at 5525. Final target is 5400, which is near the highs from March.
You get great risk/reward by shorting right at the trendline, if it doesn't hold it's a small loser. If it rejects and hits 5400 relatively quickly, it's a big winner.
Building Success In PineScript - The Ment Pressure SystemAfter more than two weeks of playing around with Pinescript, I've managed to put together some really cool tools for my followers/subscribers.
The idea of price pressure intrigued me, so I decided to create something based on it.
Ideally, I planned to build something that helped traders find and execute better trades. It is difficult to identify chop vs. trending in any market/interval. My goal was to create a small suite of tools to help traders identify better trade setups.
I still believe I have more work to do with these pressure tools, but I'm very happy with how they work.
I did learn some "tricks" with Pinescript related to how variables and processes work (of course, by trial and error).
Watching the code run in real-time has been fun (watching a 2 min ES chart).
I can't wait to see how my followers use these tools and develop new ways to deploy them efficiently.
What are your thoughts? Anything I can do to improve?
Get some.
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ES - Volume Imbalances GaloreMassive intraday manipulation to the upside, testing 50%+ of the previous daily range before sinking lower into the abyss.
What's next for ES?
Macro equilibrium located @ 5,371 is the next weekly draw on liquidity but as we are in nomans land, i would like to analyse which area of liquidity is prone to attack.
5,533 - 5,432 is the dealing range i have my eyes on for Fridays trading
#202431 - priceactiontds - weekly update - sp500 e-mini futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well.
Quote from last week:
comment: Increased volume on the down move is telling you that this one is the real one. Over the next months, market will test down to the bull trend line from 2023-10, which is also where the weekly 20ema is. Friday we stopped around the smaller bull trend line and it’s a decent place to expect some pullback before we be on our way to 5400/5450
comment: Low of the week was 5432 and I wrote 5400/5450, +121 points. For most letters/rooms/subscriptions you have to pay good money for those outlooks, if you even get them this accurate. Hope you made some.
current market cycle: Bull trap triggered. Probably forming a trading range first before we get to the bear trend. First guess for the range would be 5300 -5600
key levels: 5400-5600
bull case: Lower lows and lower highs. Bulls stopped the selloff where they had to and their last bull trend line before only the one from the covid low remains. I do think the two legged correction is good for now for the bears and a bounce is due. Since both sides have reasonable arguments, I think it will come down to earnings. If the mag7 report good and their outlook stays good, we bounce higher. If they fail or some fail, we move sideways. Slightly favoring a higher bounce to form a proper channel downwards. Decent chance bulls might close both bear gaps.
Invalidation is below 5400.
bear case: Bears see another minor pullback which could not even get to the daily 20ema at 5640. They want another strong leg down to 5300 to make it clear that the bull trend is dead. It’s not out of the picture that they get it. Probability wise, it’s more reasonable to expect the bull trend line to hold and at least go more sideways before another leg down. Issue with that is, that next week we have so many news that will have a big influence on longer term traders, that we will most likely go higher than 5500 or lower than 5400. For bears it’s a really bad short right at the big support. You can scalp short on strong momentum again but bears will likely wait for a pullback before they try again. My preferred path forward is the bear channel on my chart below.
Invalidation is above 5600.
outlook last week:
short term: Bearish but also expecting a pullback first. Same as dax.
→ Last Sunday we traded 5553 and now we are at 5499. Low was 5432. Bearish was right. Pullback was right. Hope you made some.
short term: Neutral. Both sides have valid arguments. Will make this dependent on earnings and will only do scalps for now. Market has to form a better channel if it wants a sustained down move.
medium-long term: First target for this section was 5450 and that will be hit over the next days or 2 weeks. After that is 5300 over the next 3-8 weeks and 5000 could be hit again in 2024. —update: 5450 was hit mid July. Next comes 5300 over the next 2-6 weeks.
current swing trade: Took profits on the swing short from 5700. Will add again above 5550.
chart update: Added my preferred bear channel for the next weeks.
MES - Bearish - July/Aug 2024Not trading right right now.
Could take counter trend bullish trade but waiting for the pullback to enter for the sell.
Combined US Indexes shows imminent troublesThe week earlier saw the combined index chart log a double top, where last week started to break down. By midweek, the gap (from the previous rally after a breakout) closed. The week ended with a gap reopening.
On Friday, this would normally signal a reversal and a bullish reopening of the gap, but it looks a lot less likely given that the MACD is clearly downtrending, as well as the VolDiv confirming bearishness in more ways than one... going below zero line, etc.
So, for what it is worth, the reopening is likely to be a flash in the pan, and once it makes a lower low next week, it would really let it go - DOWN
AnticipationThe S&P 500 market structure in response to Friday's fundamental reports implies a market anticipating the Fed cutting rates in September. The expectation is for further movement to the upside but not a big day on Monday.
S&P 500 Index futures are likely to bounce back up after retestiSince 2024: S&P 500 Index futures have consistently rebounded after retesting the upward trendline.
This time should be no exception,
especially with the positive influence from Trump .
S&P July 26 Friday in this video I wanted to show that the market did go to the area where we would find buyers and that would have made around an 80 or 90 point trade on the ES. I believe a lot of Traders would have a hard time taking a trade at the trade location I was looking for because it felt very bearish. want to get into these markets before they move too far in your direction so you don't give too much profit. the market moved below what I would call the last higher low....which is where the buyers found a reversal pattern and drove the market to a new high. in this example the market traded below that last higher low which could be considered a bearish move... and even if you don't know what that description means there will be traders that will be bearish on the market.... but there will also be Traders who will let the market move lower to fill in a gap or a region that's a support resistance area and they will go along. and even if they didn't think exactly like that there will be shorts who will take their profit when it moves to that level just to take profit and nothing else.... which is why these trade locations work. but the bigger picture is after the market found its support and moved about 80 points higher I believe I can't remember the exact number, there is a good chance on Sunday or Monday that there may be selling on this Market and it may be significant enough to expand lower and reveal an even larger correction lower than the initial correction which I think was around 200 points if I remember correctly. my point is there's a paradox in a way that Traders can get wrapped up and victimized by the market because these Traders may not understand that markets find reversals where most Traders not only miss the reversal but they don't even see it as a viable option because they're thinking is too out of sync with the way smart money moves. I gave a point of view that favors the market going lower. if I'm not in the market but I'm looking for sellers in the evening when the markets open on Sunday.
History does repeat itself History does repeat itself .
Afternoon trade setup for ES and SPX.
5510 pivot for afternoon trade...
Stay Frosty!
TrendMaster Pro Advanced SignalsBar Replay determine take profit, stop loss levels, and potential pullback or reversal points.
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Trend Master ProCompletion of the weekly cycle.
The weekly cycle in trading refers to the recurring patterns and behaviors observed in the financial markets over the course of a week. These patterns are often influenced by the release of economic data, market sentiment, institutional trading activities, and geopolitical events. Understanding the weekly cycle can help traders anticipate market movements and identify optimal times for entering or exiting trades.
ES levels and targets July 26thYesterday, sellers failed 5450, and put in a failed breakdown (my core edge) triggering a 90 point squeeze. Overnight, we got the same trigger again. Now Basing.
As of now: 5474, 5457-60 are supports. As long as above, we push 5498, 5511, 5519+. If 5457 fails, see 5438 again.
