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MES1! trade ideas

2024-08-14 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well. sp500 e-mini futures comment: Also trading range price action since we closed 8 points above the open price, so many parallels to dax. Market is near the big bear trend line around 5500 and the big round number is the most obvious magnet currently. Market wants to get there desperately and a bit above for an easy liquidity grab. It’s likely that we hit 5500 tomorrow and the bear trend line. There bears have their do or die moment as well and I think it’s 50/50 if we reverse or break above. current market cycle: Bear flag inside the bear trend key levels: 5430 - 5500 bull case: Bulls now made 360 points from the lows and they now want to break strongly above 5500 and probably make new ath afterwards. Today’s price action was mostly sideways but with higher highs and higher lows, so technically a bull trend. There is nothing to deeply analyse here. We are grinding higher on low volume and are near the big round number and the daily 20ema. Tomorrow we have an answer where the next 300 points will be made. Invalidation is below 5430. bear case: Bears trying but not enough. They need a strong 1h close below the 1h 20ema. Right now they have to pray for the bear trend line to hold and find enough sellers at 5500 to trade back down. If the bear trend line breaks, it’s moon time because all the bears will cover their shorts there. Invalidation is above 5530. short term: Neutral 5450 - 5530. Need a strong breakout to either side to enter bigger positions again. medium-long term: Bearish. I gave the 5000 target 3 months ago and we almost got there way earlier than expected. There is a reasonable chance we will see an event unfolding over the next weeks. Something breaks during these violent moves and this time will not be different.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by priceactiontds
The Rip you Short? or the last Dip to buy?Last week's decline DID NOT BREACH THE APRIL LOWS . To be 100% objective, as long as price is above the April lows, we still retain the ability to make one more high. That is the purple arrow on the above chart. Price will need to breach 5587 in pretty much a straight shot now, as this would be a wave 3. However, that is not my primary analysis. My primary analysis is the ES Futures market is in the final stages of it's minute circle b-wave. that should complete in the target box on the chart. From there, price should be declining in minute circle c-of Minor A. In the ES that should be in the area of the April lows, or slightly below 5,000. Best to all, Chris
CME_MINI:ES1!
by maikisch
S&P Pending further liquidation ? ( 8/12/2024 - 8/16/2024)The S&P is currently failing to break out of a statistically significant level as the market awaits further U.S. economic data for the week: 8/12 - 8/16. As long as the price action remains between 5,350 to 5,450 and continues to fail its break-out to reverse the primary trend in this short-term 'break' in broader selling, then we have to suspect that any bad economic releases or geopolitical events can be the catalyst for the next round in selling. Disclaimer - The author's information and publications are NOT meant to be, and DO NOT constitute financial, investment, trading or other types of advice or recommendation.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by AngelCPeel-Salazar
S&P's Path After VIX 50E-mini S&P (September) / E-mini NQ (September) S&P, last week’s close: Settled 5370.25, up 22.00 on Friday and down 5.75 on the week NQ, last week’s close: Settled at 18,616.00, up 90.75 on Friday and 59.75 on the week Inflation and the consumer will be front and center this week, but we also see equally important anecdotes driving markets, which I will get to next. Today at 10:00 am CT, the NY Fed will release 1-year Consumer Inflation Expectations. Fed Chair Powell has called inflation expectations a self-fulfilling prophecy. Think about it: if everyone expects gas prices to be higher next week, they will be filling the car this week and thus driving prices higher. Tomorrow morning, we will get the July PPI report before CPI Wednesday. Remember, producer prices are a leading indicator of consumer prices. The July Retail Sales report and earnings from Home Depot will also be released tomorrow morning. Walmart, the world’s largest retailer, is due Thursday. Markets will ebb and flow in response to this data, but we do believe last Monday’s volatility event laid the groundwork for higher prices in the weeks to come, barring a severe escalation in geopolitical tensions. The Olympics’ closing ceremony was yesterday, and it is important to remember that only days after the 2022 Winter Olympics closed in China, Russia invaded Ukraine. Tensions are running hotter between Russia-Ukraine and the Middle East than in recent weeks. As for the volatility spike, last week, we compared the event to August 2015 and February 2018. Outside of the pandemic, these were the last two instances the VIX hit 50, and upon such, it also marked a low in the S&P. It is important to understand that after a significant rally in the weeks to come during both instances, we did see a retest into the range of the session in which the VIX hit 50. Are we in the clear? Certainly not. However, the VIX is now trading at 20, and upon volatility suppression, it is very reasonable to expect the market to drift higher, at minimum, at least for a trade. E-mini S&P and E-mini NQ futures are extending their range higher ahead of the U.S. open. We are looking for the first 30-60 minutes after the bell to help define an acceptance of the higher range and usher in continued buying. We must see the E-mini S&P hold out above major three-star support at 5359.35-5366.50 and positively digest a retest into our Pivot and point of balance at 5370.25-5376, which aligns with settlement from August 2nd. Bias: Neutral/Bullish Resistance: 5396.75**, 5404**, 5417.25-5420***, 5432.50-5441.25***, 5480.25-5485.75*** Pivot: 5370.25-5376 Support: 5459.25-5366.50***, 5348.25-5350.25**, 5333-5337.75**, 5319.25-5324.75***, 5306-5309***, 5292.25**, 5278.75-5280.75**, 5259.75-5266.25***, 5227.50-5231***, 5202.25-5204.25**, 5189-5192.25***, 5146-5161.25***, 5120**, 5092-5102.75***, 5059.75-5078.75*** 4988.25*** NQ (September) Resistance: 18,725-18,761***, 19,023**** Pivot: 18,598 Support: 18,525-18,557***, 18,484**, 18,404-18,438**, 18,323-18,358***, 18,179-18,208***, 18,064***, 17,966-17,987***, 17,856-17,893**, 17,711-17,741***, 17,509***, 17,333-17,398****, 17,110-17,180****, 16,826-16,870*** Check out CME Group real-time data plans available on TradingView here: www.tradingview.com Disclaimers: CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by Blue_Line_Futures