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MES1! trade ideas

S&P Profit Taking | Future Long Trade Plans Post ElectionThe SPX rallied on optimism post Election results on economic revival hopes. Likely a lot of profit taking has occurred across risk assets like this one as prices reached all time highs. There always has to be a time where profits are removed and taken off the table for gains to be realised. It is likely however that if current sentiment continues we will see further inflows into risk assets at key areas (see local support and 100MA). Within the optimism of the current up move, this is likely to be a preferred 'scale in' area for longer term investors, with further longs likely lower. Be very careful on any longs. One switch in Sentiment and the Market falls drastically on panic. Any earlier longs should be incredibly light to reflect the fact that if you are buying now it is way along the demand curve. Would not be surprised (on current sentiment/price action if price dribbles) but would not take any new shorts this late. Only really prefer very light shorts back at another high hit.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by WillSebastian
Market Crash. It will happen again!! Be ready..There are not only similarities. Many factors are the same even worse. It will crash !! Today, let’s look back at how everything in 2007 was sunny until it wasn’t, and we will compare that data with today’s. The current market situation, as reflected in the Fed's rhetoric and actions—general narrative, interest rates, inflation, unemployment, etc.—is very similar to the state that preceded past crises. Yes, history is not a guarantee that the future will be the same, but it is a guide that should not be ignored. It’s good to take at least the main lessons from it because listening to the general sentiment and talking heads on TV often doesn’t pay off. Those who now lament that the Fed is unnecessarily and excessively lowering rates will shout the loudest in six months for the Fed to continue lowering them. Ignoring the past is like voting for Kamala Harris and expecting change and development. Sorry, white braindead dudes… So, let’s get to the main message of today’s article: We will take a very detailed look at 2007 and how it all unfolded step by step. First, we’ll analyze 2007, and then compare it with 2024. After that, we’ll look at the financial “health” of the average US consumer and American companies. Let’s go!! CHAPTER 1: THE YEAR 2007 The first rate cut was at the September FOMC meeting on 18.9.2007 by 50bps to 4.75%. The market was shocked by this Fed decision because it expected a cut of only 25bps, and articles began appearing everywhere that the Fed was ahead of itself and would cause inflation and another endless stock market rise. The Fed succumbed to market pressure! Below is an excerpt from The NY Times article: The S&P500, DJI, and all other major indexes immediately surged to new all-time highs. Yay, bullbrun!!! Helicopter money, the Fed has given up. Sell your car and buy stocks, everyone! Meanwhile, unemployment at this time remained around 4.7% and was relatively stable. The next rate cut came at the November meeting by 25 basis points (bps) and another 25 bps at the December meeting. “Let’s enjoy Christmas in peace, there’s nothing to worry about, we’re lowering rates for a soft landing. Like lying down in a bed with Egyptian cotton sheets.” But then the new year arrives, and it seems Wall Street spent all its money on gifts because a week before the planned January FOMC meeting, an EMERGENCY MEETING is held, and the Fed cuts rates by 75 bps. A week later, at the planned FOMC meeting on January 30, 2008, another 50 bps cut brings rates down to 3%. In March, another 75 bps cut follows, and in April, another 25 bps, bringing the total to 2%. Then comes a long pause until early October, when the Fed holds another EMERGENCY MEETING and cuts rates by 50 bps. Immediately at the next planned FOMC meeting two weeks later, it cuts again by 50 bps to a final 1% interest rate. Here it is an Excel chart for better clarity !! Here is a complete overview of the rate cuts during this period: Let’s forget about the Fed Funds for a moment and look at what the yield curve (US02Y YIELD) on 2-year bonds was doing. Since the first rate cut in September 2007, it went down and then dropped another 82% over the next 12 months! What were MONEY SUPPLY and INFLATION doing during this period? Both money supply and inflation were rising. M2SL increased from $7.4 trillion to $8.2 trillion, and inflation rose from about 2.8% to 5.4%. However, this range in inflation has been completely normal since 1982, as we have been moving within this range. Although inflation had a momentary rise, it was nothing out of the ordinary and then experienced an absolute washout. It’s crucial to keep asking the key question: What was the narrative at that time? What was the “general” opinion and sentiment? It was: The Fed gave in, the bull run continues, inflation is up, the market is saved, and the Fed is overdoing it, buddy, unnecessarily. What about the long pause between April and October when rates were flat? It was half a year of stabilization, waiting to see what would happen. They were worried that they had cut rates so aggressively that they were ahead of the market and now had to wait for the market to calm down. Read: every pundit in the news claimed the Fed had overdone it and was unnecessarily aggressive. So, when did the total meltdown in the stock market begin? During the pause in interest rates between April and October 2008, the market was relatively stable and only lost about 15% of its value. It was only after this period that the real crisis hit, and the DJI lost another 41% of its value over the next six months – see chart below. Let’s put everything together for the year 2007: Comparison of US02Y Yield, DJI, Unemployment, and Interest Rates: US02Y Yield: The yield on 2-year bonds dropped significantly, falling by 82% over the next 12 months after the first rate cut in September 2007. DJI (Dow Jones Industrial Average): The market initially surged to new all-time highs but later experienced a significant downturn. Unemployment : Remained relatively stable at around 4.7% during this period. Interest Rates: The Fed cut rates multiple times, starting with a 50 bps cut in September 2007, followed by several more cuts, eventually bringing the rate down to 1% by the end of the period. Alright, let’s take a look at what GOLD and the VIX were doing at that time. Gold kept hitting new all-time highs, while the VIX was lying in bed with a cold until October 2008. In short, it took about 13 months from the first-rate cut for the VIX to show any significant upward movement, which then triggered the final cascade of the entire market. From the first rate cut in September 2007 to March 2008, gold increased by 38%, while the VIX remained dormant. The VIX only started to spike in October 2008 after the Fed had kept rates flat for six months, leading to the real and juicy market meltdown. Alright, enough history, let’s move on to the current state. Chapter 2: The Year 2024 Now, let’s shift to the present and look at what the same charts, narratives, and everything else tell us today. We’ll start with the Fed. We’ll always start with the Fed because it’s our bestseller. Surprise, surprise, the Fed cut rates on September 18, 2024, exactly like in 2007, by 50 basis points to 4.75%1. The talking heads are just as shocked and fascinated by this event as they were in 2007. For the upcoming meetings, the expectation is a 25 bps cut in November and another 25 bps cut in December. Any resemblance to 2007 is purely coincidental… What about the indexes? Well, we’re hitting new endless records, champagne is flowing, and we’re using rolled-up newspapers for coke because banknotes are too small. In LalaLand, the DJI reaches 43,100 USD and the S&P500 hits 5,900 USD. The crowds are going wild… The current sentiment, according to “experts,” is: According to a survey, only 8% of respondents expect something like a hard landing. Yuck, who would want a hard landing? 76% expect a soft landing, and the rest prefer not to expect anything at all. Notice how the probability of a HARD LANDING has been decreasing throughout the year. This reflects the general sentiment because if a crisis were to happen, it would have come long ago. What about UNEMPLOYMENT? It remains stable at around 4.1%, but due to statistical errors from the statistical office, we will have to wait about 12 months for the actual values. What about the MONEY SUPPLY and INFLATION charts? The money supply is increasing, and inflation is back in its “comfort zone” of around 2-5%. Let’s put everything together for the year 2024: Comparison of US02Y Yield, DJI, Unemployment, and Interest Rates: Interest Rates: Decreased from 4.75% to 4.25% (a reduction of 50 basis points). Unemployment: Increased from approximately 3.4% to 4.4%. US02Y Yield: Dropped from 5.2% to 3.5%. Dow Jones Index: Continues to hit new all-time highs every day. And what about the GOLD and VIX charts? Gold has risen by about 9% since the first rate cut, reaching new all-time highs (ATHs), while the VIX is still “sleeping” and pretending not to notice. That’s all well and good, but what does it all mean?! YEAR 2007 vs 2024 It means that if we look closely and with the benefit of hindsight at 2007, the current situation is not just similar to before, it is EXACTLY the same. I don’t believe that history will repeat itself step by step and down to the last detail as before, but this comparison is meant to show you that most events can be seen in the data in advance. However, it’s hard to find this information through the disinformation deluge we call MAINSTREAM MEDIA. Macro charts, which most smart money follows and which have historically proven to be very accurate, show the same sequence of events as in 2007-2008. Additionally, China is already experiencing a similar real estate crisis as in 2008 (their words, not mine) and they think they can cover a 20 trillion loss with a 500 billion package. That will require a lot of prayers and incense sticks… CHAPTER 3: STRONG ECONOMY AND INDOMITABLE CONSUMER Powel, Yellen and all politics still speaking about a strong economy, I don’t know if they are intentionally lying or they are stupid. but here is retail data. How is the average American citizen doing, who barely finished high school, sleeps with a machine gun under their pillow, doesn’t have a passport, and thinks Africa is just below England? Average Americans are starting to drown in debt, and the chance of defaulting on the minimum debt in the next 3 months is increasing to about 14%. Auto loan defaults 90 days past due are now at 2.9%. Highest in 14 years. let’s look at ALL loan defaults together: We are in a very, very similar situation to 2007. There is no extreme yet, but notice how everything is starting to prepare for expansion. I don’t give it much weight as long as we’re below about 2, but I definitely wouldn’t support this chart because it’s another piece of our MACRO puzzle. What about the labour market? The labour market in the USA has fallen to 34.2 hours in terms of average hours worked per week. This is the lowest in 14 years. It is a continuous decline, with the labour market weakening for 8 months in a row, starting with the slow reduction of full-time jobs to part-time jobs and continuing with the gradual reduction of the workforce. Moreover, most large companies plan to lay off more employees at the beginning of the new year, which will result in hundreds of thousands of people losing their jobs. Last month, the number of part-time jobs was at 28.16 million. The third highest number in history and 400,000 more than in 2008. Additionally, household investment in the stock market is at an absolute maximum, with the average Joe having over 48% of their assets in stocks. Double the value of the last 15 years. Well, everyone has some stocks, what’s wrong with that? There’s nothing wrong with investing in stocks, quite the opposite. Anyone with a bit of extra money should have a portion of their assets in quality stocks. However, it’s always important to keep in mind what the smart money is doing. CEOs, owners, and large investors are selling their stocks, and so-called “corporate insiders” are buying stocks at the slowest pace in the last 13 years The problems that crush the middle class are of course also connected to the real estate market housing affordability is currently the worst since 1985 and we are below 2008 levels! That’s not even talking about how many properties are now for sale in the US below pre-Covid values. What about companies? How do entrepreneurs succeed and why does it all take so long? First, we have the US election in about 3 weeks, and Japan’s Powell (samurai sake kimono, or something) has confirmed that the BOJ will not raise rates until after the US election. Moreover, the buyback in stocks has never been as brutal as this year 2024 – see chart below. Come on, it’s cool, isn’t it? When a snake starts eating itself, maybe it’s a long enough snake. The problem is that the SPX index consists of 7 strong companies. The remaining 493 companies report yet another quarter when they have a 0% increase in earnings.493 companies do not even meet the reduced expectations for 2024. But Magnificent 7 and AI Narrative will take it all by themselves. We’re already looking forward to having a robot make us a drink and getting into Elon’s autonomous taxi… which will actually be driven by a remote-controlled Indian from somewhere in the basement of Marrakesh. The Russell index is not much better, with so-called “zombie companies” reporting negative earnings reaching over 43% of the index. Buffet is not buying properly for the past 3 years and he is sitting on the historically biggest cash positions. He is waiting for the opportunity, which can come soon or next year. This is macro and it has a much longer timing. This week NFPs are coming with bad data and corrections are even worse. Most of the new jobs are created in the government sector. Oh and banks are holding in the biggest unrealized losses in the past two decades Also, we just passed 36 Trillion in debt, they added 1 Trillion in just 4 months. It's a mix for the mother of all crashes, when it will happen. I don't know macro top timing is difficult as you can see Kyosaki, Schiff, Burry and many more have been calling for the crash for years, eventually one day it will happen. Growing unemployment + fed rapid rate cuts are the last pieces to the puzzle. Once FED starts rapid cutting it will be the time. What to do? Definitely don’t be leveraged in any position. Be solvent and make sure you have a stable income. Have cash to use on this lifetime buy opportunity and buy some great assets when the interest rate hits 0% it could be the bottom of the crash. Will Bitcoin protect you? I don’t know, Bitcoin was not through such a crisis yet. But Im holding since I bought it down here Of course as usual this is not financial advice just my opinion. Do your own research. Be ready, to buy the bottom, this will be epic! Dave Hunter
CME_MINI:ES1!
by David_Perk
7
#202446 - priceactiontds - weekly update - sp500 e-mini futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr sp500 e-mini futures: Neutral until bulls come around or bears get below 5800. This pullback is too good for bulls not to buy and I have no interest in selling this. If this goes to 5800 without me, so be it. I think after such a big rally with follow through buying above 6000, a retracement to 50% is a buy and not a sell. Of course this can fail and bears are doing the real deal here. Therefore I wait for confirmation but bias is bullish. Quote from last week: comment: Same logic here as for dax. Bears failed to get below 5700 and on Tuesday market went the other direction. Wednesday was certainly a huge bull surprise and we went high enough that it opens even higher targets. The rally lost steam on Thursday/Friday, which could result in a pullback first. I draw the line for bulls around 5850, if we drop below, we might as well go 5800 followed by 5730. comment: 50% retracement hit and market closed above it on Friday. My preferred path for next week is a huge bull reversal higher. Is this likely after 2 strong bear days? No it’s not, so I have to wait for either side to show a clear new direction or continuation. If this goes to 5800 without me, so be it. I think after such a big rally with follow through buying above 6000, a retracement to 50% is a buy and not a sell. current market cycle: Bull trend key levels: 5850 - 6050 (above 6050, 6200 comes in play) bull case: I do think bulls have to reverse big time from 5877 or risk dropping down to 5800 on Monday. If Monday goes strongly above 5930, we will likely print 6000 the same day or Tuesday. First target for the bulls is a close above the 1h 20ema around 5920 and then 5950. Above we will see acceleration upwards. Invalidation is below 5860ish. bear case: Bears had a big surprise follow through day on Friday and if they can keep the momentum up, this trend is in serious question. Below 5860 we will accelerate down to 5800 and the bull trend line. I highly doubt that if we print 5800 before 6100, that we will see prices above 6000 for a long time. Invalidation is above 5950. outlook last week: short term: I want to join the bulls but need a pullback first or a strong momentum break above 6030. Zero bearish thoughts as of now. → Last Sunday we traded 6025 and now we are at 5896. Bad outlook. Bad. short term: I want to join the bulls again. Need strong confirmation first though. Still no interest in selling as of now. medium-long term - Update from 2024-11-16: So the top definitely qualifies as a blow-off top but the question if we continue further up, is still valid. It is possible that we are already inside the correction and if we continue below 5860, I highly doubt bulls can get above 6000 again. Given the current market structure, I won’t turn bear because the risk of another retest of the highs or even higher ones are just too big. current swing trade: None chart update: Moved 50% retracement up, based on the recent bull leg.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by priceactiontds
#ES_F Day Trading Prep Week 11.17 - 11.22.24Last Week : Last week played out very well even though middle of the week had us thinking that maybe market will continue to hold inside Value above 970s as we kept getting buying in that area but it just took time to build up for the break of that cost basis at VAL to give us more selling end of week. Sunday Globex again opened over Value and grinded towards the upper Edge but we had no tag or push inside it which signaled weakness and as noted if that did no happen we needed to be careful looking for acceptance inside that new range and instead possibly look for this move to return back toward previous Edge and get back under 930s to possibly signal a failed new ATH break out by getting back under Previous ATH Consolidation. We first failed over Value and got the push back inside to correct the Poor low from Previous Weeks Friday Globex which was around the Mean area of that range which kept getting buying that gave us moves back to VAH but we slowly transitioned into correction first on Hourly then on 2hr and finally on 4hr to end the week on Friday with a break/hold under VAL smaller cost basis which gave us more weakness and selling to finish the Week under the lower Edge. This Week : So far looking at the structure of Daily/Weekly and the way we closed on Friday we could gather some info to help us go into this week. On Weekly TF we had a failed break out into new balance over 5950 which returned back inside Previous Balance of 950 - 660s, on Daily TF we hit a key upper Edge of the Range, held under it, built some supply and got back trough its VAH and made a move under its Mean area, under Previous ATHs consolidating potentially signaling a failed new ATH break out with a strong close under the smaller Daily MA. On Hourly's we have trapped Supply in above Range and reversed the whole move back under 930 - 13 Edge. All of this so far screams weakness and continuation lower to me, of course we have to be careful as market could hold and start balancing here above lower Mean/Value and even try to get back inside and over upper Edge which could bring stability back but I think we would need to do all that and be able to hold over 930s AND get back over above VAL in order to see real stability or strength return. Holding under the Hourly's Edge and under Daily Mean/under Previous ATHs we are looking for possible continuation towards 840s - 20s areas which would put us inside lower Value with a visit of its VAL which is also Daily VAL, these areas could provide covering if we get there BUT if we get through them then we can't forget about our favorite Previous Distribution Balance which market liked returning back into so much into 800 - 750s area which kept having our strong bids that would give us pushes away this is also Daily Edge low as that is a potential return target after failing at upper Edge. Will we get all the way there this week or not ? who knows but that is our possibility and something to watch moves towards as the week develops, question is when or if we get there will that area act as absorption area of all this Supply coming out and be enough to give us a good hold OR we have some nice longer TF stops under it which if we took could give us more supply to try another push for our lower Roll Gap which we have been building up to fill. This seems like a big move so maybe not all the way to fill the gap but it is in the cards if the weakness continues as that is also around Previous Weekly balance lows and if we get under 820 - 05 ( Weekly mid ) then that open the doors for it. To think higher prices from here again we would need either a strong bid to push us back through the upper Edge and be able to hold over 920-30s AND have the buying to eventually get us back inside above Value, or at least hold over 860s, consolidate without going lower and make a push for upper Edge. Until then will watch the short side or some sort of consolidation balance to be playing out.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by HollowMn
Trading Gameplan For Nov 18thPlan for Monday’s Session Supports: • Major: 5886-88, 5864, 5843-46, 5828, 5806, 5796-5802, 5758, 5749, 5730. • Minor: 5892, 5878, 5871, 5855, 5849, 5839, 5819, 5812, 5787, 5782, 5773, 5768. Context and Strategy: Friday’s session was a strong downside trend day (open-to-close selling) with limited support reactions. As we often see, sharp sell-offs like Friday are often followed by their counterpart: the short squeeze and the question of whether we’ll recover a significant portion of the decline shouldn't be asked. While the timing of such events is unpredictable (further downside is always possible), they typically happen when a major resistance level is reclaimed, which I’ll cover here. For now, with bears still holding control, any attempts to buy at support levels carry the high risk of trying to catch a falling knife, which i often talk about how risky those are alone. On a strong trend day like Friday when bears are in control, all supports - by definition of being a trend day to the downside - will fail. They may react, they may produce a quick level to level bounce, but typically they will generally all fail. This will remain true on Monday until we recover some major resistances. A failed breakdown of Friday’s low (5878) could spark a potential short squeeze, but once again, unless a significant resistance level is reclaimed, all longs should be treated with high caution. The next support magnet below Friday’s lows is 5843-46, with 5828 and 5806 as deeper downside levels if selling persists. Patience is key, particularly in a downtrend context like this. Key Levels: 1. Friday’s Low (5878): Critical for both bulls and bears. Watch for a potential flush below this level, ideally down to 5871, followed by a reclaim that could trigger a short squeeze. 2. 5886-88: Heavily traded on Friday and no longer fresh. Safer to wait for a failed breakdown or another deeper level to engage. 3. 5864: A possible bounce zone but still considered high-risk. 4. 5843-46: Strong support below. If selling accelerates, this level offers better odds for a reaction. 5. 5828 & 5806: Major levels for any extended sell. Resistances: • Major: 5907-10, 5945-50, 5961, 5980, 5998-6002, 6009, 6066, 6080-82, 6103, 6131, 6141, 6152. • Minor: 5899, 5917, 5928, 5934, 5935, 5943, 5947, 5957, 5967, 5972, 5975, 5993, 6014, 6019, 6027, 6032, 6038, 6045, 6050, 6058, 6071, 6092. Bull Case: • Bulls need to reclaim 5907-10 to show any meaningful recovery effort. A reclaim here could set up a bounce toward 5948-50 or 5961 for a back-test. • Ideal setup: A dip to 5871 or below early on, forming a failed breakdown of Friday’s low, followed by basing and a push back above 5907-10. This could trigger an easy short squeeze targeting higher major resistances. • Without a reclaim of 5961, any upside remains corrective, and the "short the pop" sentiment is still in charge. Bear Case: • Bears remain in control and will likely defend resistances near 5907-10 or 5948-50 if price retraces. These are logical zones for fresh shorts to initiate. • Continuation selling begins with a breakdown below 5878. Watch for traps, as 80% of breakdowns tend to fail. If there’s no meaningful recovery, selling could extend toward 5843-46 or 5828. • Preferred short entry: A failed bounce near resistance (5948-50 or 5961) or after a structural breakdown below 5878. Summary for Monday: • Expect potential bounce attempts to test breakdown zones like 5907-10 or 5948-50, but any upside remains corrective unless bulls reclaim 5961. • A flush below Friday’s low (5878) may trigger a failed breakdown setup, sparking a short squeeze. • Below 5878, next support magnets are 5864, 5843-46, and 5828 • Exercise caution with longs; focus on reactions at key levels. Shorts remain favorable until resistance zones are reclaimed.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by ESMorg
Weekly Leading Indicators: BEARISHManaged to streamline down to these couple of charts for a set of leading indicators. Simple trend analysis and techincals are being used here for Weekly charts and so weekly analysis is appropriate to set the stage for a top down view. First up (on the top right corner) is the Combined US equities chart that shows a strong marubozu the previous week (from elections outcome). However, the following week was not a confirmation, but instead casts doubt on the sustainability of the spike to rally on. Point being, the massive breakout is met with a Dark Cloud Cover that breaks back into the Decision Box (purple box) which was previously marked out for the consolidation range boundaries. Typically when a breakout is followed by a breakin, it tends to follow through to the other end... a break down from the box support. Yellow circle is where it should go through or bounce at. What gives on this is that the following Leading indicators are eluding to... SG10Y Govt Bond Yields The uncanny correlation of this to the US Equities Indexes is remarkable and have been a hallmark of my recent posts and analyses. Here we have a breakout of the trendline resistance. Means equity markets are going Bear. RED Flag High Yield Bonds ETF (JNK) JNK looks to break the uptrend trailstop line, with a lower high that now has a Dark Cloud Cover as well. AMBER Flag TIPS and TLT Both have broken uptrend trailstops and are downtrending with a recent low. These are well known market leading indicators. RED Flags Semiconductor ETF (SOXL) Noted, and personal favourite, SOXL is clearly bearish from simple candlestick patterns. RED Flag So, overall, we have Leads telling us it is BEARISH again. Heads up!
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by Auguraltrader
S&P 500: Reached forecasted area!It finally sold off to original forecasted area at around 5900! And went further down a little more... Which means we should see more weakness next week. Also, on the 1H chart, there was a H&S pattern that played out nicely! But since price has already reached some kind of support, it should take a breather. So if you want to take short term LONG trades, then look for chart reversal patterns at the 5min (inverted H&S, double/ triple botton, etc..) Watch out for the down trendline. If it holds, then it should go down further. We can assess again next week on the levels.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by leslieyimsm
ES_F Daily LONGER Term OutlookThis is a Daily chart I have been tracking for some time using HTF Balance Ranges and Structure, it may or not play out and if it does then I would think this back fill/correction can take a long time to play out, I would say over a year+ so this is not for day trading or short term swing trading but it is something to possibly keep in mind and help track our movement with IF THEN statements and potential targets lower. 4800 area is something I have been tracking for a while that is an area to me that start our whole move which brought us here and I would not be surprised if we tried to back fill at least most of the way towards it. Again this can take a long time to play out but at least something to refer to in order to manage expectations for new highs and areas of interest for the market. Not much else to say I tried to make notes on the chart it self so its easier to track. For stability in the market we would need to not get back under 5820s - 5750/20s Areas and build bases over it then get back over 5990 - 6000 to think new highs, until then we could keep building supply and moving it to lower targets. For Day Trading refer to Weekly Day Trading Plans.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by HollowMn
1
SPX Risk-On Rally To Continue?Long side impetus flooded Markets on economic hopes via election results. Since then, we have seen a slight fall on Risk Off Sentiment and outflows on the USD, after some FED comments last night. Overall Market sentiment remains reasonably stable and may the case traders temporarily feel the last move was overpriced. Awaiting retail sales. Anything stronger may bring cause for further rallies. Sizing - Would never take any major longs on SZ1. Further falls needed for anything significant. Regular re-shorts at highs applicable.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by WillSebastian
2024-11-14 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr sp500 e-mini futures - Bears moving it lower but barely. Every low was followed by 7-10 point pullback. For tomorrow I can see the following, 5909 is the daily 20ema and the breakout retest is at 5924. Those could be potential targets if the bears are strong and keep the market below 6000. Above 6000 I think many bears will give up and market could retry 6030 or higher. On the daily chart we have a two legged pullback and bulls are free to melt again. Still heavily favoring the bulls since the selling is so weak. comment : Close below 6000 was good for the bears but does the 1h chart look bearish to you? Look at the daily chart and see how insignificant this move down is. Bears would need a big acceleration down and keep the market below the 5m 20ema for couple of hours and 100+ points. This will likely be a minor pullback which the bulls buy tomorrow. Be prepared for a nasty short squeeze tomorrow. I would not be surprised if we close above 6060 but consider me dumbfounded if we close the week below 5950. current market cycle: bull trend key levels: 5900 - 6100 bull case: Bulls want to close the week green and print another buy signal going into next week. Most bears will likely cover above 6000 and try again around 6015, which was the big magnet for the entire week and it will likely be for tomorrow as well. Above 6035 we see a complete give up by bears until 6053. Everything is in place for a big move tomorrow. Invalidation is below 5960. bear case: Bears closed below 6000. That’s the only thing they have going for them. Can they get down to the breakout price 5924 and daily 20ema around 5911? I highly doubt it. For that to happen the market would have to stay below 6000 and trap many bulls. Even a hot ppi print today could not move the market much and we had two sided trading all day. In all fairness, we have a very clear bull channel on the daily chart, with 2 upper trend lines, one around the ath 6053 and the other currently runs through 6180. I think 6180 is currently much more likely than touching the lower trend line at 5760. Invalidation is above 6001. short term: Bullish. Want to see a 2%+ up move tomorrow and squeeze further. Below 5950 we will print 5920 or 5900. medium-long term - Update from 2024-10-13: Very rough guess for the remaining trading weeks in 2024. Spike up, decent correction (~10%), nasty (blow off top) year end rally if earnings hold in Q4. Don’t trade based on that guess. Update 2024-11-14: Blow-off top happening right now. Got measured move targets above 6150 or higher. Santa came early, so don’t expect him to come around again this year. current swing trade : Nope trade of the day: Selling the open was decent I guess. Market looks much more bearish on the 1h tf than it was. Much two sided trading with better end for the bears. I don’t think selling 6000 was a good trade, despite going down to 5964.
CME_MINI:MES1!Long
by priceactiontds