$es bounce Looking for a bounce at 5539.25 for 6-8 ticks. 5 contracts would profit you $375-$500.
Don’t go for home runs with prop accounts. Just 4-6 ticks is all you need.
MES1! trade ideas
ES Short TargetES is breaking all support levels along with NQ, so far it is a healthy pullback I would say. However, it's getting worse as we go. SPY hasn't held 550, which was my first target. Now I'm looking for ES to hit demand around 5500 along with trendline support. I'll most likely long there if it hits.
$ES top in?We got a large reversal today which makes me think that top is in for this cycle. As you can see from the chart, price went over resistance and closed back below it which is extremely bearish.
From here, I think we'll see a move down to the first support at $4800, then I think it's likely that we bounce higher to make people think we're going to see another move higher, but instead of having a sustained trend, we'll roll over down to new lows.
My base case is that we'll see the lowest supports at $2750-2900 before we see any sustainable bull market trend form.
Let's see how it plays out.
ES Levels & Targets July 19thYesterday, ES lost a multi-day support at 5630, which triggered shorts for Day 2 of “short the pop”. Overnight, we saw a solid failed breakdown of yesterdays low, recovered.
As of now: 5585 is support. As long as buyers stay above, relief bounce back to 5608, 5616, then 5630 for the ultimate test. 85 fails, dip to 5566-68
Full Trading Plan for today posted here yesterday at 5pm
Elliott Wave Expects S&P 500 E-Mini Futures (ES) to Continue HigShort Term Elliott Wave View in S&P 500 E-Mini Futures (ES) suggests rally from 5.2.2024 low is in progress as a 5 waves impulse. Up from 5.2.2024 low, wave ((i)) ended at 5368.25 and dips in wave ((ii)) ended at 5205.50. The Index has extended higher again from there. Up from wave ((ii)), wave (i) ended at 5588 and wave (ii) pullback ended at 5502.75. Rally in wave (iii) ended at 5707.75 and pullback in wave (iv) ended at 5621.25. Final leg wave (v) unfolded as a diagonal and ended at 5721.25 which also completed wave ((iii)) in higher degree.
Pullback in wave ((iv)) has subdivision of a zigzag Elliott Wave structure. Down from wave ((iii)), wave (a) ended at 5631.75 and rally in wave (b) ended at 5664. Final leg wave (c) lower is proposed complete at 5570.25 at the blue box extreme area. This area is based on the 100% – 161.8% Fibonacci extension from 7.17.2024 high which comes at 5518.13 – 5574.3. Wave ((iv)) ended inside this blue box area and the Index has since reacted higher from the blue box. After the reaction, it now needs to break above wave ((iii)) at 5721.25 to rule out a double correction in wave ((iv)). Near term, as far as it stays above 5518.13, expect the Index to extend higher.
ES - Looking Down The Crosshairs, Waiting...Patience is of virtue in conditions like this.
Dealing range equilibrium stands at 5,605.50 and with Fridays trading range attacking both all-time highs and daily sellside, anything can go!
The question I ask myself is where does the most pain lie?
Trade is based off ICT TGIF SetupMarket has been bearish all week anticipating Friday producing an ICT TGIF setup.
ES levels & targets July 19thPlan for Friday: supports are 5585 (major), 5575, 5566-68 (major), 5558, 5553, 5542 (major), 5534, 5527, 5519 (major), 5511, 5502 (major), 5491, 5482 (major).
With the short idea at 5628 working so well today and bringing us down past 5585, I’ve decided to add a small long late day on the 5585 reclaim, seeing us put in a nice late day failed breakdown (Deja Vu from yesterday). In this case, we flushed the 1230PM 5590 low, then reclaimed, entering with part of today’s profits. As I’ve mentioned for two days now, I see sellers being in control still until buyers can conclusively reclaim some major resistances to turn that around, with 5630 being first up. Until then, all longs should be treated as high risk, high failure rate, and with small size. When bears are in control and ES is making new lows, I call these “knife catches” and they are inherently dangerous, in the same way shorting a new high in an uptrend is. From where we are now, 5585 is first support down, and this backtests the triangle shown in red. We’ve already worked this level quite extensively, it may have another test left in it though. If it does fail and we make a new low, the next major support down is 5666-68. While one could “knife catch” this, I’d rather see us flush today’s low, tag that zone, then reclaim to try a small long for a safer setup. Could this fail? Yes, bears are in control. Longs have been brutally spoiled now for weeks with every single long working, and now longs have to put a little more effort into where, and how one enters. If 5666 fails, I’d be looking at 5542 and 5519 as spots to try small sized longs.
Resistances are: 5593, 5598 (major), 5608 (major), 5611, 5616 (major), 5621, 5630-32 (major), 5640 (major), 5646 (major), 5649, 5655, 5660, 5668 (major). Obviously the 5630-32 level is a big one from here. One could try shorting it on the backtest and it may produce a decent reaction. Personally, I won’t be taking this as I’ll probably still be long into it, and I am not a fan of flipping long to short in macro uptrends.
Buyers case: Bears are currently in control, so 5630 must be reclaimed to give bulls their first technical "win" and shift the momentum back in their favor. For bulls, the goal tomorrow is for 5630 to be retested. Ideally, this retest would hold us above the 5585 level after today’s late-day failed breakdown. If there’s another low, it should be a brief dip below today’s low followed by a quick recovery. The bounce would then need to progress through 5608, 5616, and finally to 5630, which is a crucial level. A long entry is viable above 5630, but it requires patience and volume for confirmation and a pullback first, making it a more advanced entry.
Sellers case: The sellers case is now the default until 5630 reclaims. There are a couple shorts available tomorrow. The best is on the fail of 5566. As I say often, these types of shorts below a support are called breakdown trades. My core edge is trapping retail traders with failed breakdowns, and the reason is this is an edge is the vast majority of break downs (80%) end in trap. Markets always trap before they move. Breakdown trades take great skill to execute, and even when done well by a trader who has mastered these setups, one should expect over 60% to fail (they are low win rate, high R/R trades. 2 or 3 in a row will fail, then the 4th will pay out huge). As always though, I don’t chase. I’d need to see a bounce/failed breakdown of 5566 first . Only after this takes place, would I consider short 5564 or so for a move down the levels. There is a higher risk short available on the fail of 5585 as well. Again I’d ideally want to see a bounce here first to remove the “trapping factor” out of the level, then short a little below it. You don’t want to rush into these. 5542 would be the magnet for this, but as always take profits lvl to lvl.
In general, Today’s close is much like yesterdays. We had a day of selling, and bears remain fully and completely in control. My general lean is similar to yesterdays but at lower levels; as long as 5585 holds, bulls can try to pop to 5608, 5616, then 5630. If bears to take another leg down, it would be there (or even sooner if they are particularly motivated). If 5585 fails, we likely head down directly again.
Taking a breathI'm looking for the S&P 500 to take a breath on Friday which means I am not looking for a large move down but a smaller range today going into the weekend.
ES OHLC Stat Mapping Textbook setup1:5RR booked ✅
-Manipulation to -Distribution. The most simple setup which repeats every single day...
Checkout my profile for this incredible tool which changed my trading.
How To Understand The Sentiment Drivers Behind The S&PWhat is moving to SPX up relentlessly and how should you trade it?
Lots of Traders are looking at the SPX to catch a potential retracement. This will not occur until the Sentiment drivers behind the market change.
At the moment, very recently, its confusion. This could lead to a larger, sudden change, should any rhetoric from Powell give it fuel.
ES Levels & Targets July 18thYesterday the last downside target I gave for ES was 5645, as long as the 5668-72 backtest rejected, and after 3 tests of it, sellers hit the target. ES certainly agrees with 5645, and we have been basing around here for 4 hours now. As of now: buyers are trying to pop above it now (5652, 58 next up). Ultimately though, sellers still control short term until 5668-72 recovers.
Price Action Review ES 7-17-24 and Overnight 7-18Going over the day's price action ES and the Overnight session. looking for clues as to what the market is telling us and how we should position for the day.
Not looking for follow-through to the downside.I am not looking for a big follow through to the downside in the S&P 500 on Thursday primarily because the action that we saw on Wednesday is due to the anticipation that the US may curb chipmakers because of continued sales of advanced ships to China.
ES Levels & Targets July17thYesterday, the top target i gave in ES was 5723. ES agreed, and we hit 5721.5, before sellers dipped back to 5660s support again. And both short ideas i mentioned in the plan yesterday afternoon have worked with ease.
As of now: 5668-72 is obvious resistance. Buyers must reclaim fast on the backtest to rally up back to upside targets. If it rejects, 5654, 5645 next down.
ES Price Action REview 7-16-24 & Overnight session 7-17-24Going over the price action for Tuesday and the overnight session looking for clues as to what the market is doing and how it wants to proceed going forward. we dont sell strength we sell weakness. no weakness no selling.
618 Fibonacci + Fair Value Gaps + Support took me out of the 9-5Sweet over 60 pts on this play!
Hunting deals have made me the most money
Take a shot at combining the Trinity and get better confluence
Like for future setups!
Buyers are holding the highBuyers are holding the high on the close but can they follow through. 5740 would be the next objective to the upside. Watch the Asian and European sessions for continuation of buying. These sessions can provide a clue for follow-through in the US session.
ES Levels/Targets July 16thFor 3 days now, 5668-73 area has been very key in ES. We failed from it Friday afternoon, trapped sellers, then squeezed 50 points. We did the exact same thing yesterday 4pm, and it held again overnight to the tick. As of now: More chop likely. 5679, 5668 are main supports. staying above keeps 5696-98, 5708+ in play. We dip only if 5668-65 fails
Improving Breadth; Caution or Celebration?E-mini S&P (September) / E-mini NQ (September)
S&P, yesterday’s close: Settled at 5683, up 18.25
NQ, yesterday’s close: Settled at 20,583.75, up 59.75
E-mini S&P and E-mini NQ futures notched a positive session to start the week, but the rebound from last Thursday’s pullback has certainly felt exhausting. Much of the focus has been the rotation to under-loved cyclicals and small caps. In fact, with this morning's extension, E-mini Russell 2000 futures are up more than 8% since Thursday’s CPI report, which showed pockets of disinflation. However, despite a fresh record high in the E-mini S&P yesterday, overhead supply from last Wednesday’s panic buying and Thursday’s reversal has left a thick pocket of damage (resistance) in which both the S&P and NQ have struggled to repair. Over these last two and three sessions, both indices have created upper-end tails on the daily candlestick, a pattern that exudes near-term exhaustion. During recent pullbacks and consolidations before legging higher, both indices also left tails, but on the bottom-end of the daily candlestick. While this type of activity exudes caution, we also consider the chase for performance, yield, or a catch-up from the worst performing assets (small caps) as something that typically shows up before a healthy pullback within a bull market. If you have been following us, you know our Bias has been unequivocally Bullish, but we will now Neutralize our Bias to watch a round or two of this fight. Although many cite improving market breadth, we see this as one sign for near-term caution.
Bias: Neutral
Resistance: 5695.75-5699.25**, 5707.75-5708.25***, 5718.75**, 5762.75****
Pivot: 5683-5688
Support: 5673-5676.50**, 5660-5666****, 5649.75*, 5639.75-5642.50***, 5629.25-5631.25**, 5619.25-5621.50***, 5605-5608.25***, 5581-5588***
NQ (September)
Resistance: 20,661-20,676**, 20,703-20,741***, 20,796-20,822***, 20,900**, 20,983-21,016****
Pivot: 20,620
Support: 20,506-20,525***, 20,425-20,442***, 20,335-20,373***, 20,255-20,274****, 20,206-20,216***, 20,000-20,052**, 19,927***, 19,726-19,756****
Micro Bitcoin (July)
Yesterday’s close: Settled 63,700, up 5,855
Bias: Bullish/Neutral
Resistance: 64,810-65,530***, 67,460-67,710**, 68,643***
Pivot: 63,695
Support: 62,615-62,987***, 61,775-62,035**, 60,810-61,187***, 59,880**, 57,500-57,845***
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ES short term short setupMy analysis suggest a short term bearish move for ES and NQ towards Previous weeks low, with minimum target previous day low
