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MES1! trade ideas

2024-09-18 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well. sp500 e-mini futures comment : Look at the daily chart and then you can’t be anything but neutral after yesterday and today. Consecutive doji bars with huge tails above and minor tails below. I don’t care about the new ath on the cash index since I trade the chart in front of me and that’s where the ath was in July and due to contract switch it’s now at 5782 while today hit 5756. The high was high enough to qualify as a tripple top now and we can sell off or make a new one above 5800. The dominant feature is the bull wedge and we are kinda closer to the middle than to the top or bottom. I can see this going either way to be honest. Ask yourself this, has the market a reason to sell off right now after the big rate cut? Answer was no before and definitely no after the cut. Does not mean it can not happen anyway. current market cycle: trading range (bull wedge) key levels: 5660 - 5800 bull case: Bulls made another higher high and a higher low. Does not look that good for bulls to buy the close 5680 but it sure as hell does not look bearish. As long as support and resistance are holding, I lean bullish and scalp long. Market is still trading above the 4h 20ema and obviously the daily, so bulls remain in control. Obvious targets above are 5782 and then 5800. Invalidation is below 5665. bear case: Bears need a lower low below 5665 and that’s they only target for now. Until they can achieve that, they have no good arguments on their side. I do think market will spend some more time in this area before we see another breakout. If bears would get below 5665, their next target is the daily 20ema at 5640 and below that is the bull trend line around 5570. Invalidation is above 5810. short term: Neutral between 5665 - 5782. Big range but that’s today’s range where we wildly went up and down multiple times. medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-01: Very much like my outlook in dax. Trading range on the daily chart and we are at the highs. We could make higher ones or not. Does not matter much. I expect 5000 to be hit again in 2024. current swing trade: Nope trade of the day: Buying 5690 and selling 5720 but you needed wide stops to trade this.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by priceactiontds
ES Range Expectations after the FOMC & PresserTradingView keeps crashing when I try to record a video so we're going for a chart only update this time. Today we're again looking at ES e-mini futures for an expectation of the amount of range we could do on this FOMC data release. We take a look at both the upside and downside to get a view on where the boundaries of normality would be to aid us in framing intraday trades. The Average Daily Range on ES at the moment is about 75pts (the daily ATR is about the same since the futures don't tend to gap much). So far today we've done 27pts of range... about half of the average of 51pts for the first 4 hours of the day. Volumes are also low (about 60% of normal) as we'd expect going into an FOMC report at 420k vs the average of 682k. So, what to expect for the FOMC release? I tend to use 50pts above/below the Volume POC (which is dead on the 5700 level today) as my benchmark for larger news events like this and that is the first level above/below... so 5750 or 5650. But if we get carried away (and we could today) then a full ATR move of 75pts actually lines up nicely with previous support and resistance areas. We'll tune back in later to see how this plays out.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by JeffBoccaccio
Why is Macro driving the markets ? The attached chart shows just how important macro analysis is on the financial markets, and just how much it can move prices. It is important to understand that the markets are nothing more than a huge game of anticipation, which is why macro analysis is so important. In particular, it is important to understand the phenomenon of pricing: the market incorporates all the information available to it into prices at a given moment. For example, if a new regulation is announced that will restrict the automotive sector in 2 years‘ time, the market will react immediately and shares will fall immediately, not in two years’ time, because the market will immediately take this information into account and pass it on. This is where macro analysis comes in: it is used to construct and understand the market narrative. What are the current issues and constraints, what element could act as a catalyst for a further rise, what element is likely to lead to a fall, what is the market sensitive to, where is the focus? It is by building this context that we can make the right trading decisions. Simply following a technical indicator will not be enough in the long term. An indicator doesn't give you any real anticipation, any understanding of the movement in front of you, or any rationalisation of the levels to exploit (you avoid certain Supports/Resistances, for example, depending on the macro flow, because you know that it is too likely that you will break through these levels). The whole market, all the assets, all the prices are simply a reflection of market expectations (pricing) on the outlook for the asset. You've probably already heard that the markets are out of touch with reality, that they're too expensive, that fund managers are 🌰 idiots who buy overpriced stocks (this analysis is often based on the price/earnings ratio). It's a misleading reading that doesn't look far enough ahead to provide a true understanding of the market... The market never buys the asset at time T, it buys the asset's perspectives! Let's take the GLT share at a given moment Taking into account its current price and earnings, it is trading at a P/E of 26, which may seem expensive. But if I look at the longer-term outlook : Over a 3-year horizon, if the company achieves the results it expects to do, the P/E will actually be 14.97, a much more acceptable and bearable figure than the 26.04 we saw earlier. That's what the market will pay! Not the share price at the moment, but its growth potential. The market is counting on these expectations. If they deteriorate, this will lead to sell-offs, and vice versa. And macro events drive the market because they can upset these expectations and market scenarios. Many market players are looking to invest in what will yield the highest returns. Once again, macro is the key to finding what will yield the highest returns. We know that certain companies/sectors react better to certain parts of the economic cycle, to a context of inflation, high growth, low growth, rising rates, an environment of long rates over an extended period, etc... So when the macro outlook changes, or is disrupted by recent data, market players will review their positioning and seek to allocate to new assets that are likely to benefit most from the current/forecasted contex & environment. What sectors are players pulling out of, what do they seem to be reallocating to? This is incredible information and a good barometer of the market's perception of its current macro environment and its appetite for risk. And unsurprisingly, these flows only come into play when new macro/economic data upsets, downgrades or improves the outlook for certain assets, upsetting market expectations. MANAGING means forecasting TRADING: means anticipating REACTING: means losing If you want to do what great traders, fund managers and trading desk operators do, macro-reading is essential to understand your trading environment and what the market will be sensitive to. Being a trader is not about reacting, because we need to limit surprises as much as possible through our macro reading, which is a prerequisite for anticipating and forecasting 😉
CME_MINI:ES1!Education
by Gold-Lion-Trading
S&P Rally Continues, How High Will We Get?The SPX rally that started on a softer landing scenario has been fuelled even more by investor confidence. It's always wise to remember that equities generally will not fall unless there is reason. That would come in the form of real economic headwinds, or at least the speech about their potential. To stop being wasted; 1) Trade tiny sizes. 2) Only short once you can see a real sentiment shift/long term reversal (think about Yens). 3) Space any entries out far and wide. 4) Leave it out your portfolio. 5) Balance your portfolio by hedging with other assets (equities up, Antipodeans long, USD short). Easy yet effective.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by WillSebastian
ES/SPY Sept 16 Weekly AnalysisWe are off to a slow start this week but we look like we could ne pushing our way up. The current pattern on SPY looks like a potential bullish flag pattern. Keep in mind that this week we are awaiting the Fed's decision on decreasing the interest rates by 50 basis points. As we await the decision, we are looking for clues in the candlesticks, to give us a hint as to which direction we could break out to once the Fed decision is made. From the 15min perspective on SPY, there is a support gap closing around 559. If we continue to drop, we could fall into a support fair value gap around 555. If price continues to hold and break up to the bullish side, we are expecting SPY to continue up and test the all time high around 564. We also want to keep in mind that ES will change contracts this week from September to December. The contract change itself, could cause some changes in the ES chart (especially the price value). It could cause the price to drop and test into the lower daily support fair value gap around 5600. If price were to continue up, it would most likely fill the daily resistance fair value gap around 5736. From the daily ES perspective, 5736 is the resistance and 5628, would be considered the tight trading range for this week. Depending on how we break structure, will further determine how price will continue to either rise or fall.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by RandiMichelle
ES Inverse Head & Shoulders Target Hit + TriangleI recently posted about an inverse H&S on ES as the right shoulder was forming and it ended up playing out even though I was skeptical at the time. We can measure the projected target by taking the distance from the bottom of the head to the neck line and measuring that from the breakout point. That target was around 5700 which has been hit (note the contract rollover.) On top of that target we have the previous double top/ATH and trendline resistance. The trendline is the top end of a triangle shown here with the gray lines. Once again we have multiple resistance and confluence for a rejection. However, this also means that if it breaks to the upside it will have that much more momentum and lead to more short squeezes. If the triangle breaks to the upside, first target is naturally going to be ATH. I'd be careful of a rejection there and look for the triangle to hold on a retest for more longs. If the retest doesn't hold, I'd interpret that as bearish and start looking for shorts. It's a big week so I expect this to lead to a break up or down soon. We're at the very top end so first downside target is the bottom end of the triangle and then the neck line.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by AdvancedPlays
Full ES Trading Plan For Sep 17th** The Levels in this section all now reference the December (ESZ2024) contract prices.** Plan for Tuesday: • Supports are: 5690, 5684, 5680 (major), 5671, 5662-64 (major), 5654 (major), 5650, 5645, 5639 (major), 5632, 5627 (major), 5620, 5614 (major), 5607, 5598, 5588, 5579 (major), 5573 (major), 5568, 5562, 5548-52 (major), 5544, 5532, 5523-26 (major). • In terms of lvls I’d bid direct: Conditions remain extremely poor and this partially attributed to contract rollover and partially attributed to the market waiting on FOMC Wednesday. Setups are scarce, and overtraders will continue to be punished badly. In these conditions it is essential to plan your trades and trade your plan, then sit on profits after. Generally speaking everything between 5680 and 5702 or so is pure chop now. If you over-trade in this zone, you will lose money and the only attractive trades in this situation are typically failed breakdowns, and we saw plenty today below 5680. For tomorrow 5680 remains support. This level is very well tested now and no longer reliable at all now. I won’t be bidding it directly, but if we dip down to 5671 then recover it may be actionable for a final time. As I warned yesterday, we have essentially rallied everyday now since last Wednesday. In this situation , rug pulls can come out of the blue, and it can occur anytime now. It does not mean that we stop taking longs, but it means we should be cautious now until the market “gets it out of its system”. My longs today were only partially sized and any future longs will remain so until a rug pull happens (which is inevitable) and plays out for a deep sell. We do not predict when this will occur, but we are prepared to react. Below 5680 is 5662-64. Once 5680 fails we could easily end up in “knife catch mode” so I am not overly interested in buying supports. If we test 5664 though and reclaim today’s low, it may present an attractive level to level move. If we get a proper dip tomorrow, both 5627 and 5614 would be spots I’d consider small knife catches at. As always, no rush, you can wait to see how price reacts at the zone especially if we are knifing into it at full speed. • Resistances are: 5696 (major), 5703 (major), 5709, 5720 (Major), 5724, 5734 (major), 5739, 5748, 5754-56 (major), 5765, 5770, 5774, 5781-85 (major), 5794, 5802 (major), 5815, 5829-32 (major), 5840, 5847, 5859 (major), 5865, 5877, 5881 (major). As readers know I don’t short strength in ES so I won’t be shorting any of the above levels (win rate for shorting when bulls control is just too dismal for me even attempt). For those who have a higher risk tolerance than me though, 5734 would be one spot to consider trying shorts. • Buyers case tomorrow: As I said on Friday buyers remain fully in control and we could easily pullback to 5552 over 100 points lower and it would just be a healthy, normal pullback after this size of rally. When I talk buyers case tomorrow, it is therefore just in the very short-term. For tomorrow, the buyers case would just involve ES filling out the 5702 to 5680 range more. We could ping pong and failed break this down many more times. As long as this structure is in tact though, it is a bull flag and would simply resolve us higher. This would ultimately target 5720, then 5732. If that big resistance can clear, we ultimately head up to 5756, then to re-test the ATH. I normally give spots to add on strength but given this very tight range, I cannot responsibly do this without seeing the action in real time as the zone is too choppy. Perhaps tests of 5680 that recover 5690 may be a concept of interest. • Sellers case tomorrow: The sellers case here is only short-term obviously, and begins on the failure of 5690. As I say everyday, there is a strong disclaimer that goes with these types of trades. These types of level loss shorts below a support are called breakdown trades. My core edge is failed breakdowns, and the reason is this is an edge is the vast majority of break downs (80%) trap. They take great skill to execute, and even when done well by a trader who has mastered these setups, one should expect over 60% to fail (they are low win rate, high R/R trades. 2 or 3 in a row will fail, then the 4th will pay out huge). *If you don’t like these odds and cant tolerate being trapped - simply don’t take them. I consider breakdown trades to be an advanced setup type so if a newer subscriber, there is nothing wrong with passing on these*. As always I don’t chase. I will warn that this is a very complex short as this is a trappy zone. Unless you are very experienced with this type of entry, do not try this entry and wait for a more established downtrend to form. Since the 5680 level is already fairly well tested, we could just flush it directly. Ideally, I’d want to see some sort of bounce and/or failed breakdown though in that 5671 to 5680 cluster again before trying short. After this reaction, perhaps 5669 would be an entry, but it would have to go below wherever the real time structure is formed after any bounce attempt. Be sure to take profits level to level, as we could very easily just pop down a level then squeeze 60 or 70 points.

In summary for tomorrow: We are chopping ahead of FOMC. My general lean is always to defer to the trend. 5680 to 5703 is a pure chop zone and as long as 5680 holds (or recovers on any traps below) we can work higher to 5720, then 5734. If 5680 fails, ES needs to sell before FOMC (and for buyers, this is the healthiest thing possible).
CME_MINI:ESZ2024
by ESMorg