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MES1! trade ideas

Reveries II (Q4 update) It's Mid October and we're inside the 12M sell box; r1 on 1M - 5902 r1 on 1W 5924 r1 on 1D 5898, r2 5918 (chart on right) r1 on 4h macro 5896, r2 @ 5921 (on left) all pending bearish rotation. Feasible push to 5896 (r1 on 4h macro, maybe even r2 @ 5921) but unless es sustains north of 5902 / 5918, downside cycle is coming, and wkly could push to 5790's with minor extension. No bounce there and monthly could revisit 5590's, before post election pump to fill out upper end of 12M sell box (roughly 5827 - 6095, same levels projected from Feb). Projected floor for Q4 5440 - 5320, barring some random endgame narrative, dip to this level keeps us above August lows and provides a generous running start for the leap to breach 6k. Wildcard scenario; hunt to 5960s before pre-election evac... watch for strength north of 5902 / 5921 and if it sustains above, temper expectations; as a.) 5953 is the 120% level for the year and b.) last high on 1d di+ after August low printed Sep 17. Appreciate the risk.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by iSovereign
3
Full Plan for Monday Oct 21stPlan for Monday: Supports: • Major: 5892, 5878, 5869, 5850, 5820, 5802-05, 5787, 5770, 5752, 5734, 5710, 5683, 5676, 5657-60 • Minor: 5882, 5871, 5862, 5857, 5842, 5834, 5828, 5814, 5796, 5782, 5779, 5763, 5755, 5746, 5740, 5725, 5721, 5715, 5708-10, 5702, 5693, 5679, 5669, 5666 What I’m Watching: We are inside a broad consolidation zone from 5915 to 5850, but the tighter consolidation within this range (5892 to 5915) is becoming tricky due to the deep use of these levels. Flexibility is key when trading in this range. For Monday, 5892 is the first major support, though it’s been overused and may no longer be reliable. I’d prefer to wait for a reaction there, with safer longs only coming if we reclaim 5902 after testing lower. If 5892 fails, a selloff could follow, a common occurrence for Monday. Below that, 5878 is the next key level down, but I’m less inclined to take long positions here unless we see a failed breakdown with a recovery back above 5869. If we get a further breakdown, 5850 becomes the key line of defense before a potential flush down to 5820. Resistances: • Major: 5900-02, 5914, 5933, 5945, 5956, 5962, 5997-6000, 6007, 6040-45, 6070, 6098 • Minor: 5907, 5922, 5935, 5951 Bull Case for Monday: We’re in a broad consolidation zone from 5915 to 5850, with bulls still holding the advantage as long as this structure remains intact. The tighter range of 5892 to 5915 will likely dictate the early moves. For the bulls, the ideal scenario is to hold above 5892, base out, and then rally to 5933 and beyond. As loose concepts though, I’d consider any flagging that does not make a new high above Friday’s high and that holds 5900 or 5892 (bonus if we flush to 5892 and recover 5900) as being very bullish and worth adding. In the “ultra bull case,” we wouldn’t even lose 5892, quickly basing above 5900, which could lead to a squeeze toward 5933 and potentially higher. Bear Case for Monday: The bear case becomes relevant if 5850 breaks down. Breakdowns are tricky and often trap traders (80% failure rate), so it’s a low-win rate but high-reward setup. If 5892 fails, we could see some downside pressure, with 5878 and then 5850 as key supports. If these levels don’t hold, we could see a sharper selloff toward 5820 or lower. However, I am obviously not going to just short below 5850 after selling 60 points there from here. I’d need to see a strong bounce there or a failed breakdown, see longs work, and only then would I consider shorting under wherever the structure (lows) are at the time—this could be around 5847. On a shorter-term basis, there may be a short opportunity if 5892 fails. This level has been heavily worked, but it’s ideal to see one more bounce attempt there, and then short just under the low of that bounce. Be careful here, as we could easily flush to 5869 and then squeeze back up. If I do short, I would exit and be willing to switch long. Summary for Monday: We’re stuck in a consolidation range between 5915 and 5850, with 5892 to 5915 being the tighter range within. The market could ping-pong between these levels before making a more decisive move. My lean remains to defer to the overall trend, with a preference for buying dips unless key supports like 5850 fail. A break of 5892 could lead to a Monday dip, but as long as bulls hold 5850, the broader structure remains bullish, targeting 5933+.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by ESMorg
#202442 - priceactiontds - weekly update - sp500 e-miniGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr sp500: 4 different upper bull trend lines for multiple wedges and all are kinda valid. You just never know which one will be most respected by the algo’s. 6000 is the target, much more likely we get there before a bigger correction. Don’t try to be the first bear on this. Quote from last week: comment: Two decent days were enough for the bulls to make new ath. Again a bad place to trade, 8 points below the new ath. We have nested bull wedges and market broke above the bigger one. Odds favor some pullback but I would rather wait and be flat than to short this. comment : Monday made the 50 points higher and that’s all bulls achieve last week. We had two pause bars on the daily chart with Tuesday and Thursday but that was not enough to put doubt in bulls minds that this rally is over. 6000 is the target and, same as dax, we will likely hit it one way or the other. current market cycle: nested bull wedges key levels: 5800 - 6000 bull case: Bulls know technically we are at the top of them all and the rally is on it’s last legs. Big round numbers are still just too good to not hit if history tells us anything. Bears are not doing anything and not enough bulls are taking profits, so the market only knows one direction. As long as we are staying above the two bull trend lines that are closest, bulls are good and we continue. Invalidation is below 5800. bear case: Bears are not doing enough. They have many reasonable targets below but what good are those if the 4h 20ema keeps getting bought almost the entire week? Can you sell new highs for a scalp? Sure. Bears need anything below 5800 to start having arguments. Reasonable scalp is probably a break below 5850 for 5800 but as of now, there isn’t much more to expect for Monday. I am open to surprises though. Overall I just doubt many bears want to short 5900 when they know everyone wants to see 60000 and there is much more value to short there. Invalidation is above 6050. outlook last week: short term: Neutral since we are exactly at the top of two big patterns and 8 points below the ath. Sitting on hands is best here. → Last Sunday we traded 5859 and now we are at 5906. Neutral wasn’t too bad since market made 60 points on the week. Wasn’t good either, I know. short term: Neutral between 5870 - 5930 and bullish above 5930 for 6000. medium-long term - Update from 2024-10-13 : Very rough guess for the remaining trading weeks in 2024. Spike up, decent correction (~10%), nasty (blow off top) year end rally if earnings hold in Q4. Don’t trade based on that guess. current swing trade: None chart update: Adjusted the many bull trend lines to show it’s pure guesswork which one will be respected. All are valid until clearly broken. Big dotted means that the pattern is on the weekly or monthly chart, and some breaks above are tolerable and do not mean the pattern is invalid. Close is always close enough.
CME_MINI:MES1!Long
by priceactiontds
ES_F Day Trading Prep Week 10.20 - 10.25Last Week : Last week Globex opened and held over Value, for any weakness from there we needed to either get back under Value middle or tag VAH and come back in, instead we pushed up into VAH before the RTH which brought in more buying and gave us a push to test the upper Edge of this HTF Range we have accepted in. As mentioned Monday first tags of big HTF areas like that more often than not give a reaction into opposite direction, which we got the following day with a flush back into Value but that supply was bought up and we again pushed outside of Value. Last two days of the week we ended up balancing between VAH and Edge keeping the price inside the new HTF Range with a close right under the Edge, under Monday and Thursday Highs. This Week : This week I am leaning towards us staying within the current HTF Range as we again don't have much of market moving data coming. Something to look for is if we still have strong enough buying in/over Value then we could continue balancing around this current Intraday Range of 930s - 880s BUT we do have a week of Supply built up here and we are right at the Edge of the HTF Range which tells me that unless we can build up inside the Edge then push over and continue to VAL above or hold the Edge on pull backs after taking it then I wont be looking for much higher prices from here but instead for a possible return back to VAH and possibly a move back inside Value into 880s - 40s Intraday Range, with supply above we could see a return back to 870 - 50s and even pushes towards 40s and VAL. If we do make moves towards VAL we need to be careful with looking for too much continuation under 50 - 40s unless we can take out VAL and show clear acceptance under it, until then we can spend time balancing around this current Value thats if we get back inside of course which would mean for pushes out of VAH and VAL would find their way back inside eventually. We could continue to grind higher here to start the week and attempt to push inside the Edge to try and build up there but as mentioned careful looking for continuation unless we get through the Edge top and don't come back in.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by HollowMn
S&P 500 (ESZ2024) - Numerous Opportunities ScalpingVery efficiently delivered price during this week with little to no inefficiencies to the downside. This suggests a massive price to the downside if ES was to print bearish price action. $5,850 is the weekly lows is in the cards if we see a sharp retracement but due to the overall sentiment being bullish, it would be wise to anticipate longs up to $5,927.25 all-time highs but sitting back, awaiting for more data would be the best thing to do in this case. Studying Mondays price delivery will be key to detect whether the highs has been printed for the week.
CME_MINI:ESZ2024
by LegendSince
Elliott Wave Intraday View: S&P 500 Futures (ES) Wave 5 In ProgrShort Term Elliott Wave View in S&P 500 Futures (ES) suggests that cycle from 8.5.2024 low is in progress as a 5 waves impulse. Up from 8.5.2024 low, wave 1 ended at 5669.75 and dips in wave 2 ended at 5394. The Index extends higher in wave 3 towards 5830 and pullback in wave 4 ended at 5724. Internal subdivision of wave 4 unfolded as a zigzag structure. Down from wave 3, wave ((a)) ended at 5756.2 and wave ((b)) ended at 5822.50. Wave ((c)) lower ended at 5724 which completed wave 4 in higher degree. The Index has resumed higher in wave 5. Up from wave 4, wave (i) ended at 5808 and pullback in wave (ii) ended at 5725.25. Wave (iii) higher ended at 5846.50 and pullback in wave (iv) ended at 5811.50. Final leg wave (v) ended at 5918.50 which completed wave ((i)) in higher degree. Correction in wave ((ii)) is proposed complete at 5850 with internal subdivision as a zigzag structure. The Index then resumed higher in wave ((iii)). Up from wave ((ii)), wave (i) ended at 5927.25. Near term, as far as pivot at 5724.01 low stays intact, expect pullback to find support in 3, 7, or 11 swing for further upside.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by Elliottwave-Forecast
1