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MES1! trade ideas

ES 3hr UpdateNot sure if I will have time to post an update tomorrow morning, futures are red, RSI looks like it's headed to oversold, foreign investors are ditching US assets, nobody trusts Trump. Index futures, stocks, bonds, and the US dollar all selling off. With Trump gaming the market, it's easy to get whipsawed into a loss. Get caught holding puts when "news" comes out, and you're toast. I'm expecting "news" because of the bond selloff, Trump is rate sensitive because of his real estate interests. I plan on buying gold if the US dollar loses support. See my gold posts. It's the only high confidence play I could come up with. If you like to leverage with options, you can do GLD calls, UUP puts, UDN calls, or bet on Euros, Swiss francs, or yen.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by hungry_hippo
MES1! - Micro E - Mini S&P 500 Futures (Liquidity Grab Zone)Here I have the S&P Micro Futures showing consolidation in a tight range with about a 200 point spread to trade in. I have created this box to warn traders especially novice traders that this is a dangerous trade zone meant to grab liquidity (take your money). I would highly suggest to sit on your hands and wait for the price action to move out of the Liquidity Grab Box with a confirmed candle body close above or below the zone, at least 30 - 60 mins and with volume before taking a trade. It seems that this consolidation is setting up for the next drop lower or higher depending on the tariff/trade war data we receive. Good Luck to all, preserve your capital and let the setups come to you, don't chase the price action, it will lead you into a trap.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by Trade_Wolf
Futures electronic hoursFutures electronic hours 💡 This idea focuses on trading futures during the electronic trading hours — the periods outside the regular cash session, where unique price behavior often occurs due to lower liquidity and algorithmic dominance. 📊 Core Strategy: During electronic hours (typically post-market/pre-market), futures like ES, NQ, or CL often show sharp moves driven by global macro news, low-volume liquidity zones, or overnight positioning. These moves can offer high-probability setups when combined with key levels from the regular session. 🧠 How to use it: 1. Mark key support/resistance levels from the previous regular session. 2. During electronic hours (e.g., 6 PM – 9 AM ET), monitor price interaction with these levels. 3. Look for rejection, breakout, or fakeout signals, ideally with volume spikes. 4. Use tight risk management due to increased volatility and spreads. ⏱️ Electronic hours are often overlooked but can offer clean technical setups for experienced traders, especially in quiet news environments or after major macro releases. 📌 Works well with futures contracts like ES, NQ, CL, and GC. Can also be adapted for FX and crypto markets which trade 24/7.
CME_MINI:ES1!Education
by elukonina
ES1! - Monthly - Grand Scheme of ThingsClick Here🖱️ and scroll down👇 for the technicals, and more behind this analysis!!! ________________________________________________________ ________________________________________________________ ..........✋NFA👍.......... 📈Technical/Fundamental/Target Standpoint⬅️ 1. Long-Term Perspective: While recent market volatility may induce panic, it's crucial to acknowledge the S&P 500's overarching upward trend. Periods of consolidation are inherent to sustained rallies, allowing the market to build momentum for further advances. However, given prevailing economic uncertainties—including inflation, tariffs, and signs of rally exhaustion—a healthy correction towards Q1-Q2 2024 price levels is plausible. 2. Short- to Medium-Term Outlook: A near-term retest of the 6,000 level is anticipated, followed by a subsequent retracement. In this period of heightened uncertainty, a cautious approach is recommended for bullish positions. 3. Technical Considerations: Current weekly and monthly chart patterns remain in development. In light of this, prioritizing the preservation of existing gains is paramount, a strategy that appears to be underemphasized in current market discussions. ============================== ...🎉🎉🎉Before You Go🎉🎉🎉… ============================== Leave a like👍 and/or comment💬. We appreciate and value everyone's feedback! - RoninAITrader
CME_MINI:ES1!
by RoninAITrader
ES Update, 104% China Tariff Edition, lol.As you can see, MFI hit overbought before open. Unfortunately, I didn't have time to post before work. Stupid algos pumping before bad news again, they even pumped China, so I bought some MCHI (China ETF) puts in the morning. WHy would anyone pump CHina before a tariff announcement?!?! I don't see Xi or Trump backing down, if anyone falters, it'll be COngress. The issue is that it will take a 2/3 majority in both houses to override a veto, so they probably won't be able to muster up enough support until next week at the earliest Then Trump can sit on the bill for 10 days before he vetos. There's not a parts supplier in China that's gonna pay 104% tariff, which means stop ship on everything. And we're looking at bare minimum of 11 days before tariffs can be repealed, probably gonna be at least 3 weeks. Even at that pace, it's gonna create a shipping backlog, empty shelves, parts shortage, and temporary layoffs at manufacturing plants just like COVID did. What's this all mean? IF YOU NEED ANYTHING THAT'S MADE IN CHINA, GO SHOPPING RIGHT NOW! I'm not kidding. It may cause issues even with stuff like frozen dinners because China makes all of the containers. ANyways, the algos screwed up again. RSI probably goes deep into oversold again. We get a huge ass bounce when COngress gets their shit together in a week or two. Even then, some companies will have lingering effect because I can guarantee there will be a shipping backlog when the tariff is lifted.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by hungry_hippo
23
The Trump PatternWhen Donald Trump took office in 2017, the U.S. stock market experienced dramatic fluctuations—marked by steep declines followed by eventual rebounds. This pattern, which we'll call the "Trump Pattern," repeated itself during his presidency and is now emerging again as a point of interest for investors. While the specific causes of these market shifts varied, key factors—particularly tariffs, inflation concerns, and Federal Reserve (FED) actions—played critical roles in the market's rise and fall during Trump’s presidency. The Trump Pattern: The Market Fall and Recovery 🏁 1. The Start of the Trump Presidency (2017) When Donald Trump was elected in 2016, the market responded with a combination of excitement and uncertainty. Initially, the market surged due to tax cut expectations, deregulation, and optimism about a business-friendly administration. But as Trump's presidency fully began in January 2017, concerns over trade wars and tariff policies began to dominate investor sentiment. The market initially dipped after Trump began pursuing a protectionist trade agenda, especially with China. As concerns about tariffs escalated, stock markets reacted negatively to potential trade wars. 💶 2. The Tariff Crisis of 2018 The first major example of the "Trump Pattern" emerged in 2018 when Trump began implementing tariffs, particularly on Chinese imports, and announced new tariffs on steel and aluminum. This caused major market disruptions. The S&P 500 fell dramatically during this period, dropping by as much as 8.6% from its February peak in 2019. Companies that relied heavily on international trade, like Apple, General Motors, and Ford, experienced significant stock price declines. In fact, Apple’s stock fell 9.5% on days when new tariffs were announced, as their costs for manufacturing overseas rose. The uncertainty surrounding the global economy, combined with rising tariffs, created fears of a trade war, leading to sharp market declines. 📈 3. Market Recovery: FED Rate Cuts and Tax Cuts Despite the tariff-induced volatility, the market didn’t stay down for long. After significant market falls, the Federal Reserve (FED) began implementing interest rate cuts to combat slowing economic growth. These actions helped stabilize the market and even fueled a rebound. FED rate cuts made borrowing cheaper for consumers and businesses, stimulating economic activity and boosting investor confidence. Additionally, tax cuts, a cornerstone of Trump’s economic policy, provided further support, particularly for corporations. As a result, after the initial market drop in 2018 and early 2019, the market rebounded, continuing to climb as investors reacted positively to these fiscal and monetary policies. 🎯 The 2024 and 2025 "Trump Pattern" Emerges Again Fast forward to 2024 and 2025, and we’re seeing echoes of the "Trump Pattern" once again. New tariffs, introduced in 2025, have reignited concerns about a trade war. These tariffs, particularly on Chinese imports, have once again caused market volatility. The stock market has fallen in recent months due to concerns about these tariffs and the impact they might have on global trade. For example, when new tariffs were introduced in early 2025, the market saw a sharp sell-off, with the S&P 500 falling by over 1.8% in a single day. Companies that rely on international trade, like Tesla and Ford, have seen their stock prices drop in response to concerns about increased production costs. The broader market decline, much like in 2018, was driven by fears that tariffs could slow down the global economy and hurt corporate profits. However, there is optimism that the same pattern will unfold, where the market eventually recovers after these initial drops. ⚠️ 4. FED Rate Cuts Again? As inflation concerns persist, the Federal Reserve is likely to step in once again. Like previous cycles, we expect the FED to cut interest rates to stimulate the economy. This would be aimed at reducing borrowing costs, encouraging investment, and helping businesses weather the impact of higher tariffs and global uncertainty. The FED’s actions are typically a key driver of market recovery in the "Trump Pattern." Investors have come to expect that a market downturn triggered by political or economic disruptions can be offset by the FED’s supportive monetary policies. ⚖️ Navigating the Trump Pattern: What Should Investors Do? The "Trump Pattern" highlights that during periods of heightened uncertainty, especially due to trade policies like tariffs, the market will often experience short-term declines followed by long-term recovery. Here are a few strategies investors might want to consider: Stay Diversified : During periods of volatility, having a diversified portfolio can help cushion against the risks posed by market swings. Invest in Domestic Companies : Companies that rely less on international supply chains might fare better during periods of trade policy changes and tariff uncertainty. Focus on Growth : Once the initial market decline subsides, look for sectors that stand to benefit from a recovering economy, such as tech or consumer discretionary stocks. Look for Inflation Hedges : Given the potential for inflation, consider investments that tend to perform well during these times, such as real estate or commodities like gold. 📝 Conclusion: The Trump Pattern in Action The "Trump Pattern" demonstrates how the market tends to react in cycles during the early months of each presidency. Typically, the market falls at the start due to the uncertainty surrounding Trump’s trade policies, particularly tariffs. However, after these initial drops, the market often rebounds thanks to FED rate cuts and other policies aimed at stimulating the economy. Looking ahead to 2025, we're already seeing signs of this pattern in action as tariffs are back on the table and market volatility has followed. However, history suggests that patience might pay off. Once the FED steps in and cuts rates, a market rebound is likely, following the same trend we saw in 2017-2019.
CME_MINI:ES1!Education
by CandelaCharts
2
ES UpdateLike I said over the weekend, the algos are definitely on, explains the whipsaw Fri and today. Everything is oversold so they had to pump it and try to get their money back. Problem is, Trump is gonna announce 50% tariff on China tomorrow. CHina ain't backing down, not their style. QUote: "Therefore, if China does not withdraw its 34% increase above their already long term trading abuses by tomorrow, April 8th, 2025, the United States will impose ADDITIONAL Tariffs on China of 50%, effective April 9th." Source: www.cbsnews.com Might have to short something tomorrow morning, lol.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by hungry_hippo
7
Paradigm Shift or Panic Selling? ES Futures Weekly PlanCME_MINI:ES1! Macro Update: The escalation of reciprocal tariffs and China's countermeasures have sent shockwaves through markets, with widespread selloffs across asset classes, including gold. Fund managers and investors were forced to liquidate positions to cover margin calls. The likelihood of a global recession has surged, with Goldman Sachs raising the probability of a US recession to 45% from 35%. Meanwhile, JPMorgan increased its global and US recession odds to 60%, up from 40%, due to intensifying tariff tensions. The March 2025 Federal Reserve’s SEP projections suggest slowing growth amid rising inflation concerns, pointing in the right direction. Is this a paradigm shift, or was it already set in motion earlier in the decade? Or is this simply panic selling, with the expectation that US administration policy will soon stabilize markets? If it is a paradigm shift—as seems more likely based on recent developments—the current environment could prove historic, aligning with Ray Dalio's concepts on the changing world order, debt crises, and how nations go bankrupt. Investor Confidence: ES futures are currently down over 20%, entering bear market territory for the first time since the 2020 pandemic crash. The big question now is whether we’ll see a relief rally or continued sell-offs with occasional pullbacks, or if markets are establishing a new value range based on auction market principles. • 2024 YTD mCVAL: 5379.75 • 2022 CVAH: 5376 • March 2025 Low: 5533.75 • August 5th, 2024 Low: 5306.75 • Neutral LVN: 5191.50 - 5156.25 • April 4th, 2025 Low: 5074 • 2024 Yearly Low: 5016.25 • CVPOC 2022: 4610.50 Scenario 1: Further Downside The key downside level for ES Futures is 4610.50, where the most volume has been transacted since 2022. Currently, ES Futures are trading above this level. If the market establishes a value range between 4900 and 4500, further selling with brief pullbacks and consolidation above the 2022 CVPOC seems likely. Scenario 2: Relief Rally For a rally to take hold, ES Futures faces key resistance levels: the 2024 Low at 5016.25 and the pWeek Low at 5074. If markets sustainably stay above these levels, we could see a rally toward the 2022 CVAH at 5376. However, the sustainability of such a rally remains in question given the mountain of uncertainties ahead. It is important to note that uncertainty tends to create highly volatile market regimes. Traders should adjust the expected daily range accordingly. A good indicator to measure this is “Daily Average True Range”, many traders also rely on close-to-close standard deviation bands to gauge range on a given trading day. As such, we could see moves of 3% or more in either direction on any day.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by EdgeClear
ES where?📉 ES1! - S&P 500 E-mini Futures (Daily) We’re approaching a critical point on the long-term trendline. 🟠 Price has bounced sharply after a steep pullback, reacting right at the dynamic support that’s held since the 2022 lows. 🟢 Two possible scenarios: Bullish Continuation: support holds, the index regains momentum and pushes back toward the highs. Bearish Breakdown: trendline breaks, signaling a potential structural shift with downside targets possibly below 4000. 📊 Momentum indicator is in extreme territory → wait for confirmation, don’t anticipate.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by JTRADERCO
This is Wyckoff Volume Spread Analysis Gotcha Bar with No DemandIn this short video, Author and Trader, Gavin Holmes explains a Wyckoff Volume Spread Analysis Gotcha Bar followed by No Demand on the four hour chart of the E-Mini S&P Futures contract. This set up appeared last week and again today and is a clear indication of market weakness. As I type this the headline on BBC News is "Global Markets Plummet as US Tariffs Take Effect. Panic selling is often an opportunity for the chart readers who can identify a Shakeout, not here yet but watch, I will keep You all posted. Best wishes, Gavin Holmes
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by gavinh10277