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MES1! trade ideas

$ES top in?We got a large reversal today which makes me think that top is in for this cycle. As you can see from the chart, price went over resistance and closed back below it which is extremely bearish. From here, I think we'll see a move down to the first support at $4800, then I think it's likely that we bounce higher to make people think we're going to see another move higher, but instead of having a sustained trend, we'll roll over down to new lows. My base case is that we'll see the lowest supports at $2750-2900 before we see any sustainable bull market trend form. Let's see how it plays out.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by benjihyam
Elliott Wave Expects S&P 500 E-Mini Futures (ES) to Continue HigShort Term Elliott Wave View in S&P 500 E-Mini Futures (ES) suggests rally from 5.2.2024 low is in progress as a 5 waves impulse. Up from 5.2.2024 low, wave ((i)) ended at 5368.25 and dips in wave ((ii)) ended at 5205.50. The Index has extended higher again from there. Up from wave ((ii)), wave (i) ended at 5588 and wave (ii) pullback ended at 5502.75. Rally in wave (iii) ended at 5707.75 and pullback in wave (iv) ended at 5621.25. Final leg wave (v) unfolded as a diagonal and ended at 5721.25 which also completed wave ((iii)) in higher degree. Pullback in wave ((iv)) has subdivision of a zigzag Elliott Wave structure. Down from wave ((iii)), wave (a) ended at 5631.75 and rally in wave (b) ended at 5664. Final leg wave (c) lower is proposed complete at 5570.25 at the blue box extreme area. This area is based on the 100% – 161.8% Fibonacci extension from 7.17.2024 high which comes at 5518.13 – 5574.3. Wave ((iv)) ended inside this blue box area and the Index has since reacted higher from the blue box. After the reaction, it now needs to break above wave ((iii)) at 5721.25 to rule out a double correction in wave ((iv)). Near term, as far as it stays above 5518.13, expect the Index to extend higher.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by Elliottwave-Forecast
ES levels & targets July 19thPlan for Friday: supports are 5585 (major), 5575, 5566-68 (major), 5558, 5553, 5542 (major), 5534, 5527, 5519 (major), 5511, 5502 (major), 5491, 5482 (major). With the short idea at 5628 working so well today and bringing us down past 5585, I’ve decided to add a small long late day on the 5585 reclaim, seeing us put in a nice late day failed breakdown (Deja Vu from yesterday). In this case, we flushed the 1230PM 5590 low, then reclaimed, entering with part of today’s profits. As I’ve mentioned for two days now, I see sellers being in control still until buyers can conclusively reclaim some major resistances to turn that around, with 5630 being first up. Until then, all longs should be treated as high risk, high failure rate, and with small size. When bears are in control and ES is making new lows, I call these “knife catches” and they are inherently dangerous, in the same way shorting a new high in an uptrend is. From where we are now, 5585 is first support down, and this backtests the triangle shown in red. We’ve already worked this level quite extensively, it may have another test left in it though. If it does fail and we make a new low, the next major support down is 5666-68. While one could “knife catch” this, I’d rather see us flush today’s low, tag that zone, then reclaim to try a small long for a safer setup. Could this fail? Yes, bears are in control. Longs have been brutally spoiled now for weeks with every single long working, and now longs have to put a little more effort into where, and how one enters. If 5666 fails, I’d be looking at 5542 and 5519 as spots to try small sized longs. Resistances are: 5593, 5598 (major), 5608 (major), 5611, 5616 (major), 5621, 5630-32 (major), 5640 (major), 5646 (major), 5649, 5655, 5660, 5668 (major). Obviously the 5630-32 level is a big one from here. One could try shorting it on the backtest and it may produce a decent reaction. Personally, I won’t be taking this as I’ll probably still be long into it, and I am not a fan of flipping long to short in macro uptrends. Buyers case: Bears are currently in control, so 5630 must be reclaimed to give bulls their first technical "win" and shift the momentum back in their favor. For bulls, the goal tomorrow is for 5630 to be retested. Ideally, this retest would hold us above the 5585 level after today’s late-day failed breakdown. If there’s another low, it should be a brief dip below today’s low followed by a quick recovery. The bounce would then need to progress through 5608, 5616, and finally to 5630, which is a crucial level. A long entry is viable above 5630, but it requires patience and volume for confirmation and a pullback first, making it a more advanced entry. Sellers case: The sellers case is now the default until 5630 reclaims. There are a couple shorts available tomorrow. The best is on the fail of 5566. As I say often, these types of shorts below a support are called breakdown trades. My core edge is trapping retail traders with failed breakdowns, and the reason is this is an edge is the vast majority of break downs (80%) end in trap. Markets always trap before they move. Breakdown trades take great skill to execute, and even when done well by a trader who has mastered these setups, one should expect over 60% to fail (they are low win rate, high R/R trades. 2 or 3 in a row will fail, then the 4th will pay out huge). As always though, I don’t chase. I’d need to see a bounce/failed breakdown of 5566 first . Only after this takes place, would I consider short 5564 or so for a move down the levels. There is a higher risk short available on the fail of 5585 as well. Again I’d ideally want to see a bounce here first to remove the “trapping factor” out of the level, then short a little below it. You don’t want to rush into these. 5542 would be the magnet for this, but as always take profits lvl to lvl. In general, Today’s close is much like yesterdays. We had a day of selling, and bears remain fully and completely in control. My general lean is similar to yesterdays but at lower levels; as long as 5585 holds, bulls can try to pop to 5608, 5616, then 5630. If bears to take another leg down, it would be there (or even sooner if they are particularly motivated). If 5585 fails, we likely head down directly again.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by ESMorg
Improving Breadth; Caution or Celebration?E-mini S&P (September) / E-mini NQ (September) S&P, yesterday’s close: Settled at 5683, up 18.25 NQ, yesterday’s close: Settled at 20,583.75, up 59.75 E-mini S&P and E-mini NQ futures notched a positive session to start the week, but the rebound from last Thursday’s pullback has certainly felt exhausting. Much of the focus has been the rotation to under-loved cyclicals and small caps. In fact, with this morning's extension, E-mini Russell 2000 futures are up more than 8% since Thursday’s CPI report, which showed pockets of disinflation. However, despite a fresh record high in the E-mini S&P yesterday, overhead supply from last Wednesday’s panic buying and Thursday’s reversal has left a thick pocket of damage (resistance) in which both the S&P and NQ have struggled to repair. Over these last two and three sessions, both indices have created upper-end tails on the daily candlestick, a pattern that exudes near-term exhaustion. During recent pullbacks and consolidations before legging higher, both indices also left tails, but on the bottom-end of the daily candlestick. While this type of activity exudes caution, we also consider the chase for performance, yield, or a catch-up from the worst performing assets (small caps) as something that typically shows up before a healthy pullback within a bull market. If you have been following us, you know our Bias has been unequivocally Bullish, but we will now Neutralize our Bias to watch a round or two of this fight. Although many cite improving market breadth, we see this as one sign for near-term caution. Bias: Neutral Resistance: 5695.75-5699.25**, 5707.75-5708.25***, 5718.75**, 5762.75**** Pivot: 5683-5688 Support: 5673-5676.50**, 5660-5666****, 5649.75*, 5639.75-5642.50***, 5629.25-5631.25**, 5619.25-5621.50***, 5605-5608.25***, 5581-5588*** NQ (September) Resistance: 20,661-20,676**, 20,703-20,741***, 20,796-20,822***, 20,900**, 20,983-21,016**** Pivot: 20,620 Support: 20,506-20,525***, 20,425-20,442***, 20,335-20,373***, 20,255-20,274****, 20,206-20,216***, 20,000-20,052**, 19,927***, 19,726-19,756**** Micro Bitcoin (July) Yesterday’s close: Settled 63,700, up 5,855 Bias: Bullish/Neutral Resistance: 64,810-65,530***, 67,460-67,710**, 68,643*** Pivot: 63,695 Support: 62,615-62,987***, 61,775-62,035**, 60,810-61,187***, 59,880**, 57,500-57,845*** Check out CME Group real-time data plans available on TradingView here: www.tradingview.com Disclaimers: CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by Blue_Line_Futures