Sunday night + OVernight ES Price Action rEviewGoing over the sunday night to Over night price action ES looking for clues as to what the market is telling us. will go over 4hr charts sometime today.03:18by BobbyS8130
S&P 500 (ES) continue with the Uptrend ☝️S&P 500 (ES), it's nice to see a strong buying reaction at the price of 5114.00. There's a significant accumulation of contracts in this area, indicating strong buyer interest. I believe that buyers who entered at this level will defend their long positions. If the price returns to this area, strong buyers will likely push the market up again. The S/R zone from the past and high volume cluster are the main reasons for my decision to go long on this trade. Happy trading Daleby Trader_Dale4
Long S&P and Short Real Estate on Higher for Longer Rates“The only bad time to buy real estate is later” cites investment wisdom. But, when interest rates soar high, real estate investments can and do hurt. Last week FOMC reiterated its resolve to fight inflation down to its target 2%. Inflation has been stubborn and sticky. It has shown signs of trend reversal towards resurgence. Chair Powell’s made clear that rate cuts may take longer to arrive than anticipated. Elevated rates are restrictive for businesses. It leads to shrinking sales and profits. However, recent earnings show heavyweights posting robust growth. While others have shown disappointing earnings. The difference boils down to the industry and sector. Some sectors fare worse than others. Real Estate is extremely sensitive to rates. Higher rates directly impact mortgages impeding buyers from getting into long-term mortgages. Unsurprisingly, the Real Estate Select Sector index has been the lowest performing sector since the start of the Fed’s rate hiking campaign. Underperformance has continued well into 2024 and has also been observed during periods of market rallies. With sustained headwinds facing real estate, underperformance is likely to continue. This provides suave investors a tactical spread opportunity consisting of a long position in the wider S&P 500 index using CME Micro E-Mini S&P 500 futures and a short position in the CME S&P Real Estate Select Sector futures to harness a reward to risk ratio of 1.5x. FED REAFFIRMS HIGHER FOR LONGER Fed fund rates will remain at 5.25%-5.5% for longer given the stubborn inflation trend over the last 12- months. Forget rate cuts. Those hopes are diminishing. The CME FedWatch signals just two rate cuts this year as of 5/May, down from six expected at the start of the year. Source: CME FedWatch Chair Powell’s speech hinted that even two rate cuts is overly hopeful stating that the expected inflation may not be enough to cut rates this year. HIGHER RATES WEIGH ON REAL ESTATE SECTOR Higher rates adversely impact the Real Estate sector. Elevated rates push up mortgage and financing costs. Large financing costs constrains demand. Last October, the 30-year mortgage rate climbed to its highest level in 23 years at 7.79%. Following that peak, the mortgage rates eased to as low as 6.6% in December as expectations of rate cuts started to firm up. Since then, the rates have rebounded. As of 29/April, the 30-Year mortgage rate average (calculated by Freddie Mac) hovers at 7.22%. A measure calculated by the Mortgage Bankers Association showed that as of 1/May, the mortgage rate continues to rise and is now at 7.29%. Higher rates are forcing housing demand lower. New home sales have declined 5% and existing home sales have fallen by 25% since the rate hiking cycle. Home prices continued to rise despite a slowdown in sales. House price index is almost 10% higher since 2022 as inventory of houses hovers near an all-time-low. COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE FACES IDIOSYNCRATIC RISKS Commercial Real Estate (“CRE”) has been hit with a double whammy from dwindling office space demand and prohibitive cost of financing. Office space vacancy rate reached a new record high of 19.8% in Q1 2024 as per Moody’s data reported on Bloomberg . Recovery in office space demand remains unlikely in the near term pressing CRE sector down. HYPOTHETICAL TRADE SETUP The real estate sector has been hammered. The S&P Real Estate Select Sector Index is 20% lower since the rate hiking cycle began. The benchmark S&P 500 declined at first but has since recovered and now stands 13% higher. For investors to build a directional short is not prudent as the sector has suffered brutal markdowns. This paper argues in favor of a spread between S&P 500 and the Real Estate Select Sector Index using CME futures. S&P 500/XLRE spread has delivered a stunning 45% outperformance since 2022. Investors can utilize CME Micro E-Mini S&P 500 futures which provides exposure to USD 5 x S&P 500 Index. This is one-tenth the size of standard E-mini futures enabling granular risk management. The CME Micro E-mini S&P 500 futures first launched exactly five years ago on 6/May/2019. The demand for these micro contracts has spiked. In April 2024 , these contracts witnessed an Average Daily Volume of more than one million contracts which represents 15.7% YoY growth and 22.7% MoM growth. Micro futures allow for smaller position sizes. It broadens market access and allows for granular and effective hedging by matching notional values closely in spreads. This hypothetical trade consists of a long position in 2 lots of Micro E-mini S&P 500 June futures (MESM2024) with a notional size of USD 51,615 (= 2 (number of contracts) x USD 5 (contract size) x 5161 (index value) ) and a short position in 1 E-mini Real Estate Select Sector futures (XARM4) with a notional size of USD 45,500 (= 1 (number of contracts) x USD 250 (contract size) x 182 (index value) ). Consider the two scenarios which can lead to a shift in the spread ratio: 1) S&P 500 rises from 5161.5 to 5408.6 while Real Estate Select Sector index remains unchanged at 181.8. The ratio becomes 5408.6/181.8 = 29.75. The overall profit, which comes entirely from the S&P 500 position would be (5408.6 – 5161.5) x 5 x 2 = USD 2,471. 2) S&P 500 remains unchanged at 5161.5 while Real Estate Select Sector index falls from 181.8 to 173.5. The ratio becomes 5161.5/173.5 = 29.75. The overall profit, which comes entirely from the Real Estate Select Sector index would be (181.8 – 173.5) x 250 = USD 2,075. • Entry: 28.5 • Target: 29.75 • Stop Loss: 27.5 • Profit at Target: USD 2,471 • Loss at Stop: USD 1,620 • Reward to Risk: 1.53x MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.Longby mintdotfinance12
Short BUDDY!!!Liquidity has been taken with a double top imo My confluences with the macd have triggered.. I’m short to the target price for the next 15-20hrs What are your thoughts? Trade safely my friends Shortby Dlphdavis0
ES Weekly Levels (May6-10)Here are my levels for the week. Same notes as NQ. I have been really busy outside trading so I have not been able to post many updates. I continue to trade these levels a few hours every morning. Treat the levels as as support, resistance or targets. The market is currently trading in a large consolidation pattern with large daily ranges. The levels noted are the one are I feel are the most important for the week. If a level breaks. Look for a move to the next level. SUMMARY ES posted a weekly gain of 0.58% after trading in a huge 130 pt range ES held previous week's high and moved above the 21/55 emas ES now only 3.22% of its ATH. R2 = LTF 786 Fib RT (5281) R1 = LTF 618 Fib RT (5188) S1 = 55 ema/ 21 ema (5125) S2 = 9 ema (5116) Bias has flipped bullish to sideways with move back above the 9/21/55 emas Compound corrective move down to the July 27th high & 200 SMA is still possible if price move back below the 2021 high. Limited week of econ data but many Fed heads speaking. Earnings continues with reports from growth stock including UBER, LYFT, SHOP, TTD, ABNB, MARA, RIVN, PLTR & CELH. Sell in May effect in play. RSI 52.53| VIX at 13.48 | 10 year 4.66% by WadeYendall1
Futures at resistance - 6hNot going to go into this too deeply but as you can see, we made a higher high on Friday and are currently hitting resistance at the upper extremity of the zig zag channel. Price has also been consolidating in a riding wedge pattern, which could mean we could soon see a move to the downside. It also appears that the inverse is happening with TVC:DXY where the price is finding support at the lower extremity of the zig zag channel. That’s all I have to say at this point. We’ll see if the buyers show up tomorrow to push S&P higher but I’d be cautious about being bullish with this setup in play. by ap7691
ES1!, weekend updateBull case on left, bear case on right. On the left, I think there are different ways to complete the move from 5333.50 to 4963.50, but for simplicity, I have just used a leading diagonal A, zigzag B, impulse wave C. From the low of 4963.50, it would appear that there are 4 distinct and overlapping impulse waves (with higher lows at 4991.25, 5022.25, and 5036.25), with the wave in orange longer than the waves in red and yellow. I don't see a way to turn these into a diagonal, so the implication would be there are at least three 1/2's lined up, and that we are waiting for a correction wave to finish above 5154.25 to show us where the first 3 is. On the right, I have the move down from 5333.50 to 4963.50 as one impulse wave, with a leading/contracting diagonal 1. For the presumed correction off of 4963.50, I see a series of five ABCs (first is zigzag, second is zigzag with leading diagonal A, third is zigzag, fourth is expanded flat, fifth is expanded flat). These ABCs are obviously overlapping, but I do not see how they can be turned into a diagonal, as the proposed 3 would be shorter than 1 but then 5 would be longer than 3 or 2 would be longer than 4, depending on how you draw it up. Therefore, I think the most appropriate way to see it would be a triple-three WXYXZ that is nearing or at completion. Of note, this proposed corrective wave would be finishing in the .5-.618 retracement area, standard for a wave 2 or a wave B. In either case, I think we'll know early next week which idea will pan out.by discobiscuit1
NFP conclusionAfter watching the action at Non Farm Payroll. I noticed 3 key PD Arrays that could allow ES to move back into ATHs. Should move fast 1) Mitigation block 1H TF Apr 22 2) Breaker block at the spike of FOMC an May 1 3) 1h FVG created from NFP news release on May 3 The only thing that would confirm my thesis would be a gap up on Sunday open Longby StavrosK0
E-MINI S&P 500 FUTURE SHORT TRADE IDEA.IMPULSE AND CORRECTION: looking to catch a short trade at the mitigation of the 1hr time frame supply zone.Shortby korency1
E MINI S&P 500 FUTURE SHORT TERM LONG TRADE IDFEAThe overall momentum of the market from the monthly timeframe is bullish. now we're having a minor retracement for a day trading long opportunity. also looking to catch a short trade opportunity when price get's to the right zone in order to realign with the monthly timeframe flip zone for a longer term long opportunity.Longby korency0
S&P 500 Re-Accumulation SchematicThe number of short contracts (6055K) are more than the longs (3635K), however this doesn't cause an equivalent price drop. This is called absorption. The "composite man" is collecting the contracts, but not introducing them back to the market in order to sell higher. Meaningful volume spikes with no meaningful effects are signs of manipulation. Longby simplestupid0
Small range on MondayAlthough there was a strong move on Friday, a small positive up range is expected for Monday in the S&P 500.02:07by DanGramza4
NFP Price Action Review ES 5-3-24Going over the price action for the NFP report. looking for clues as to what the market is telling us. always remember we are risk managers. do your homework and go over all your trades this weekend. weekend is a time to refine your strategy and your mind. 03:58by BobbyS8130
ES1! afternoon updateFor ES1! bears, I'm looking at a double-three correction from low of 4963.50, with an expanded flat Y, to complete below 5194.25. For the flat, 3 is shorter than 1, so 5 needs to finish below 5194.25. As such, this count is invalid with price above 5194.25. Price is currently between .5 and .618 Fibonacci price points on the correction, so bears are definitely entering here.by discobiscuit1
Weekly /ES could be forshadowing a much stronger marketI was looking at /ES on the weekly because things were looking interesting on the lower time frame charts I spend more time on. Low and behold and this chart is looking like it could be setting up for much higher prices. The recent down move gave us some rebalancing off of the crazy run we have had since late last year and the last two weeks seem to be showing us a bottom may be in for now. Price touched the 21 EMA a couple weeks ago during that OTFD but the last two weeks have been bullish and we are trying to close at the highs again this week. One concern is that we are approaching a long term Weekly trendline (shown in White) so that may provide some resistance but if we break through and hold you can see where some of the fib extensions go. I'd be looking to long the close if we hold at or near the highs with a stop below 5015 and targets of 5320, 5410, and 5550. Best of luck in your trading!Longby NOBSForex0
ES UpdateNot overbought yet. Looks like Monday will be a pump and dump day. I guess I should have more faith in the market that they'll find a way to pump AAPL on bad earnings, lol. Not feeling very bullish because earnings didn't justify valuation, and my favorite stock, PCAR, is still dropping, lol.by hungry_hippoUpdated 6
Trading Plan for Friday, May 3rd, 2024Trading Plan for Friday, May 3rd, 2024 Market Sentiment: Bulls maintaining a tentative lead ahead of multiple high-impact market events (Apple Earnings and Jobs Report). Expect extreme volatility and plan accordingly. Key Supports Immediate Supports: 5068 (major), 5054 (major trendline - note this level rises daily) Major Supports: 5028 (major), 5001 (major) Key Resistances Near-term Resistance: 5081 (major), 5102 (major), 5116 (major), 5136 (major) Major Resistances: 5155-58 (major), 5191 (major), 5208 (major) Trading Strategy Earnings and Jobs Volatility: Be prepared for unpredictable, potentially violent price swings triggered by the Apple earnings release (4:30 PM EST) and the jobs report (8:30 AM EST). Prioritize reacting to price action over anticipating. Capital Preservation: Adopt a cautious approach and consider reducing position sizes or even sitting out the immediate volatility. Focus on protecting your gains from today's squeeze. Long Opportunities: Due to the heightened risk, avoid direct bids at support. Prioritize failed breakdowns with flushes and reclaims for safer long entries. In the event of a deep flush, consider knife-catches at major supports (5028, 5001). Short Opportunities: Look for back-tests of 5116 and 5136 for shorts, but only if markets exhibit a strong negative reaction to earnings or positive jobs data. Proceed with extreme caution. Focus on Levels: Use the provided support and resistance levels to guide your decisions, regardless of the volatility. Pay close attention to failed breakdowns and setups, as they will be the most reliable in this environment. Bull Case Holding Support: Defending the 5054-50 support zone remains crucial. Reclaiming Resistances: Bulls need to push above the 5081 resistance zone after any potential sell-off on events, working back towards 5116, then 5136 for further confirmation and a potential sustained breakout. Bear Case Breakdown Signals: A convincing break below 5054-50 initiates the downside move. Watch for bounces/failed breakdowns for potential short entries. Be mindful of whipsaws and traps around major events. News: Top Stories for May 3rd, 2024 Impact of Monetary Policies: U.S. Monetary Policy and Global Markets: Contractionary policy affects global financial conditions through various channels. Responses to U.S. Policy Shifts: Tightening policy induces global deleveraging and affects asset prices and credit flows. Emerging Markets' Sensitivity: EMs experience volatility and capital outflows due to U.S. policy changes. Transmission Mechanisms: Policy changes influence dollar-denominated assets, global credit conditions, and bank behavior. Long-Term Implications: Global Trade Outlook: Modest rebound in 2024 challenged by interest rates, demand fluctuations, and geopolitical tensions. Manufacturing Sector Performance: Continued uncertainty with challenges like labor shortages and supply chain disruptions. Advances in Digital Manufacturing: Adoption of digital twins and smart tech enhances operational efficiencies. Geopolitical Impact on Trade: Persistent tensions disrupt global trade, highlighting vulnerability of supply chains to political instability.Longby spytradingpro0
ES1! morning updateWatching UVIX break through its low of $8.37 this morning gives me confidence that market top is not in. The most bullish scenario now would see four separate impulse waves (in blue ellipses) since low of 4963.50. Pivots at 5022.25 and 5036.25 were both technical, bouncing off .618 fib levels. Bulls need to advance above 5200 with continued impulsive action, and if so, this count will most likely play out to ATHs later this month.by discobiscuit1
NFP Trading #ES #NQThis video goes over tactics and strategies on how to trade on NFP day for ES and NQ. 06:58by LiquidityTrackerUpdated 1
Lean /Prep/Lotto Friday ES Trade Plan Inflection: 5082 Upper lvls: 5099-5109 / 5125-5127 / 5137 / 5153 Lower lvls: 5072-5074 / 5036 / 5005 NQ Trade Plan Inflection: 17632 Upper lvls: 17776 / 17818-17838 / 17871 / 17901-17937 / 18063 Lower lvls: 17564-17573 / 17482 / 17356-17370 Stay Frosty!Long13:35by Beyond_Charts0