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MES1! trade ideas

2024-06-18 - a daily price action after hour update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well. sp500 e-mini futures comment: Nothing fancy to report here either. Market is in balance and bulls poking at 5560. They want a break above for 5600 and will probably get it soon. Bears shorting the resistance at 5558ish and making money but will be quick to give up, if this trades above 5563/5565. current market cycle: Max bullishness & peak bubble territory. Literally the peakiest of the peaks. Mother of all bubbles. Will end over the next weeks. key levels: 5540 - 5600 bull case: Perfect buying at the 1h 20ema today for another ath 1 point above. Bulls want 5600 next. I leave room for 1 more leg up but that’s it. No more after that. Invalidation is below 5540. bear case: Bears need to stop the higher highs and trade below the 1h 20ema. Until they do that, max bullishness. Don’t make it more complicated. Can literally buy every pullback and make money. Invalidation is above 5565. short term: As bullish as one can be. Ride it up. 1 More leg possible to 5600 but that should be it. medium-long term: Bearish. We will see 5000 over the next weeks again and 4600 over the next 12 months. Will update this time and price wise over the weekend but I expect to at least see 5000 over the next months in 2024. —updated weeks to months. current swing trade: None trade of the day: Buying 5543 or near the 1h ema or literally every 15m bear candle and scalp.
CME_MINI:MES1!Long
by priceactiontds
Bear Interim and Macro: 4h/30m Prime4h on left: Next rotation on 4h bearish on interim hma and dmi, interim r1 @ 5564 , s1 @ 5547, macro s1 @ 5522, break below and macro rotation goes bear as well, dip to 5443 feasible. 30m on right, price pushing to macro r1 @ 5560, next rotation on 30m macro bear unless price sustains above ... 8h sell box @ 5565 - 5570, push to 1d sell box @ 5585 feasible (if not most favorable for shorts) Should be noted that: 3M sell box tapped @ 5548 and 6M @ 5495 Unless intention is to max out full annual atr to the upside on fumes, a dip from current levels to reinspire demand, before run to 5700's would be choice. watch for break or sustain @ 4h Interim s1 and 30m Macro s1: @ 5547 wkly buy box begins @ 5430 ll on the monthly feasible to 5230 and 5170's with minor extension. mind the disparity on vol between esm/esu *vwap for the month of June: on ESU2024@ 5518 on ES1! @ 5376 4h interim and 30m interim and macro confluent...prime set. appreciate the risk.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by iSovereign
1
E-mini S&P and E-mini NQ Actionable LevelsE-mini S&P (September) / E-mini NQ (September) S&P, yesterday’s close: Settled at 5546.25, up 44.00 NQ, yesterday’s close: Settled at 20,192.75, up 247.25 Bias: Bullish/Neutral Resistance: 5561*, 5577***, 5620.75**, 5762.75*** Pivot: 5542.75-5546.25 Support: 5533.25**, 5518.50-5521.75***, 5498.75-5503***, 5489.75-5492.75*** NQ (September) Resistance: 20,271**, 20,532***, 21,410*** Pivot: 20,163-20,192 Support: 19,974-20,012**, 19,904-19,946***, 19,732-19,757**** *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CME_MINI:ESU2024
by Blue_Line_Futures
ES Day Trading Analysis With Volume ProfileOn ES , it's nice to see a strong buying reaction at the price of 5515 and 5499. There's a significant accumulation of contracts in this area, indicating strong buyer interest. I believe that buyers who entered at this level will defend their long positions. If the price returns to this area, strong buyers will likely push the market up again. The S/R zone from the past and high volume cluster are the main reasons for my decision to go long on this trade. Happy trading Dale
CME_MINI:ES1!
by Trader_Dale
Four Factors Driving Gold Prices Relative to Silver2600 years ago, the Anatolian Kingdom of Lydia minted the world’s first gold and silver coins. In doing so, the Lydian King Alyattes and his successor Croesus introduced the world’s first exchange rate: the gold-silver cross. Like any cross rate, the amount of silver that can be purchased with an ounce of gold is driven by both demand and supply-side factors, and the cross rate is anything other than stable. Sadly, we don’t have the time series of the gold-silver ratio dating back to ancient times, but we do have data going back to the launch of gold futures on December 31, 1974. Since the mid-1970s, one ounce of gold bought anywhere from 17 ounces to as many as 123 ounces of silver (Figure 1). Figure 1: The amount of silver an ounce of gold can buy has been highly variable In addition to the impact of monetary policy, which we have covered here, the gold-silver ratio appears to be governed by four other factors: Relative volatility and the silver beta Fabrication demand and technological change Gold’s use as a monetary asset Supply-side dynamics Relative volatility and beta To borrow an expression from the equity markets, silver is the high-beta version of gold. First, silver and gold prices usually have a strong positive correlation. Since 2004 the one-year rolling correlation of their daily price moves has hovered around +0.8 (Figure 2). Second, silver is more volatile than gold. As such, when gold prices move up, silver tends to move up more, thereby lowering the gold-silver price ratio. By contrast, during bear markets, the gold-silver ratio tends to rise. Figure 2: The correlation of gold and silver price changes has hugged +0.8 since 2004. For example, when gold and silver prices peaked in September 2011, one ounce of gold bought fewer than 32 ounces of silver (Figure 3). In the ensuing bear market, the ratio rose to as high as 124 ounces of silver per ounce of gold. The ratio snapped back to 64 in 2020 as gold and silver rallied early in the pandemic. In 2024, as both metals have rallied, silver has outperformed, rising 23% in the first five months of the year compared to 12% for the yellow metal. Figure 3: Positive correlation plus much higher volatility give silver a high beta to gold Fabrication Demand and the Impact of Technological Change What is curious is that while gold and silver have rallied thus far in 2024, gold broke to new record highs of nearly $2,500 per ounce whereas silver prices remain 40% below their twin 1980 and 2011 peaks despite having outperformed gold since 2020 (Figure 4). The reason may lie in technological advances. Figure 4: Gold has hit records in 2024 while silver is still 40% below its 1980 and 2011 record highs Even before the Lydians minted the first gold and silver coins around 600 BCE, both metals had been used to make jewellery: silver since around 2500 BCE and gold since 4500 BCE. Some things don’t change. Even today, the primary use of both metals is to make jewellery. Yet, thus far this century, silver has been buffeted by two sets of technological developments: the digital revolution and the energy transition. Both have impacted the relative gold-silver ratio. In 1999, photography used 267.7 million troy ounces of silver which accounted for 36.6% of that year’s total silver supply. By 2023 photography used only 23.2 million ounces of silver or about 2.3% of 2023’s total supply due to the rise of digital photography. Meanwhile, silver’s use in electronics and batteries grew from 90 million ounces to 227.4 million ounces or from 12.3% to 22.7% of silver’s total annual supply, partially offsetting the decline in traditional photography, which may partially explain why silver has struggled to hit new highs in recent years even as gold has set records. The good news for silver, however, is that it is finding new use in the energy transition. Over the past few years silver has seen strong growth coming from solar panels, which accounted for 20% of 2023 silver demand, up from essentially nothing in 1999 (Figure 5). Solar panels may explain in part why silver has recovered relative to gold since 2020. Figure 5: Battery and solar panel demand have grown as photography demand has shrunk If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com By contrast, gold fabrication demand has shown itself to be immune from recent technological developments and is still overwhelmingly dominated by jewellery demand, with electronics, dental and other uses absorbing just 17% of annual gold mining supply (Figure 6). The differences in silver and gold fabrication demand underscores that gold is considered the purer of the two precious metals. Figure 6: Gold fabrication demand has remained little changed Gold and global monetary policy Indeed, central banks around the world treat gold as money while they largely ignore silver (Figure 7). They hold a combined 36,700 metric tons of gold, the equivalent of 1.2 billion troy ounces or 13 years of global mining output. Moreover, central banks have been net buyers of gold every year since the global financial crisis. Figure 7: Central banks have been net buyers of gold since the global financial crisis Central bank buying of gold since 2009 contrasts sharply with their tendency to be net sellers from 1982 to 2007. Central banks’ accumulation of gold suggests that they want a hard asset to complement their foreign exchange reserves of dollars, euros, yen and other fiat currencies, a view that appears to have been reinforced by on-and-off quantitative easing since 2009 and increased use of financial sanctions. Central bank buying impacts gold prices directly, but only boosts silver prices indirectly via the gold market. The supply side of the equation Central bank gold buying reduces the amount of gold available to the public. Over the past decade, central bank buying has removed the equivalent of 8%-20% of new mining supply from the gold market each year (Figure 8) which may also explain why the gold-silver ratio rose significantly from 2011 to 2020 and why, even today, it remains at 2x its 2011 level. Figure 8: Net of central bank buying, gold supply has stagnated since 2003 Total gold supply net of official purchases has stagnated since 2003. Meanwhile, silver mining supply peaked in 2016 and gold mining supply peaked the next year (Figure 9). The fact that new supply is arriving on the market more slowly than in the past may be bullish for both gold and silver. Figure 9: Gold and silver respond negative to changes in each other’s mining supply. Our econometric analysis shows that gold and silver prices are negatively correlated with changes to one another’s mining supply. A 1% decrease in gold mining supply, on balance, boosted gold prices by 1.9% and silver by 3.0% from 1974 to 2023. A 1% decease in silver mining supply boosted the prices of the metals by 1.3%-1.6% (Figure 10). Secondary supply appears to respond to price rather than drive it. Higher prices incentivize more recycling, but recycled metal doesn’t appear to depress prices as it doesn’t bring any new metal onto the market. Figure 10: Secondary supply responds to price rather than drives it What connects the two markets is jewellery. Because gold is 70x as costlier than silver, when prices rise, demand for gold jewellery falls while silver’s jewellery demand is relatively unresponsive to price because it costs much less. Gold and silver can be seen as a sort of binary star system where the two stars orbit a common center of gravity or barycenter. Gold is the larger, more stable and more influential of the two, but it is by no means immune from silver’s pull. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com By Erik Norland, Executive Director and Senior Economist, CME Group *CME Group futures are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of loss. Copyright © 2023 CME Group Inc. **All examples in this report are hypothetical interpretations of situations and are used for explanation purposes only. The views in this report reflect solely those of the author and not necessarily those of CME Group or its affiliated institutions. This report and the information herein should not be considered investment advice or the results of actual market experience.
Editors' picks
CME_MINI:ES1!Education
by CME_Group
4
Follow up on the ES1! overextensionAnyone who has read my recent post will have noticed that we are tracking the increasingly over-expansive market in the CME_MINI:ES1! . If the trend is indeed our friend, then prices should remain moving upwards. Which is what I expect will happen. But in order to go into a strong uptrend, first some levels of support must be tested, or else we risk overexpanding even more. At which point, buying would become extremely dangerous. To avoid this risk, it's better to buy at discounted prices and hoping the price does indeed go ballistic. This is much preferable to buy while price is increasing, as many novice traders do due to FOMO. With a new local maximum in place, we can safely say that a solid support has been created, yet it hasn't been tested. This in combination with the short term MA and the 2nd STD could provide additional support to the area. Making it a safe bet it won't go through. However, if this were to occur, then this would be a sign of a debilitating stock market and could potentially cause a crash. As there is a very large gap between our current supports and the previous ones. Which could lead markets to panic. I don't believe it's time yet, I think we are still missing a strong and not so long-lived final wave before we lose momentum and then crash.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by DarkMessiah777
ES potential for new highsGood Morning Traders, Closures below 4200 invalidate ES to new highs. potential reasons for this move: - humans are like new things - buyers outweighing sellers -Stimulus Measures: Government and central bank stimulus programs can inject liquidity into the financial system and provide support to businesses and individuals. Continued fiscal and monetary policies aimed at promoting economic growth and stability may positively impact investor sentiment and drive stock prices higher. -Market Sentiment and Investor Confidence: Investor sentiment plays a crucial role in stock market performance. If there is a widespread positive outlook, increased investor confidence can fuel buying activity and push stock prices higher. Factors such as low interest rates, positive earnings reports, and positive macroeconomic indicators can contribute to a bullish sentiment. -Long-Term Growth Potential: The stock market is driven by long-term expectations and the underlying growth potential of companies. If there is optimism regarding the future prospects of businesses, investors may be willing to pay higher prices for stocks, leading to new market highs.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by UnknownUnicorn29592158
Analysis for the Week of 6/17/2024I forgot to mention the economic calendar and earnings calendar in the video. Earnings are really light this week, but there's a decent amount of economic data coming out. We also have a short week with Wednesday being a holiday. Don't forget that, if you're buying options early in the week, theta decay will be worse than usual because the market is closed on Wednesday. I believe there will also be fed speakers commenting on last week's decision, so things could potentially be volatile by Thursday morning, but not really counting on it. Other than that, I go over the major indexes and talk about everything I'm watching for the week.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by AdvancedPlays
#202425 - a weekly price action market recap and outlook - sp500Good Day and I hope you are well. sp500 e-mini futures Quote from last week: bear case: Bears are still inside the bull flag and making lower lows. As long as they are staying below 5310-5320, their bear case lives on but is weak at best. They could not get consecutive daily closes below the daily ema and the reversal on Friday made the daily, weekly and monthly bar more buying than selling signals. You could argue that we are building a similar structure to April, where we had the double top and then only lower highs until bears finally accelerated it down big time and we got below 5000. Could this happen here too? Of course. We will find out on Monday or Tuesday. comment: My take last week was, that as long as bears keep it below 5400, we could be in a trading range. Bulls used the pullback on Tuesday for a new ath and got a strong follow through on Wednesday to pulverize that previous ath and trade above 5500. That target price was my first measured move target from early 2024 and it could continue up to 5600. Market refused to print a bear bar on Thursday and Friday which leaves the market maximum bullish going into next week. The big issue with that long trade is, you are buying right under the ath in a buy climax, in multiple wedges, far far above any ema. This trade risk:reward equation is as bad as it gets but the probability is high. But what is your target? You can join momentum but all of my calculated targets end at around 5600. Buying pullbacks is the reasonable thing to do until it stops working. My final thoughts on the market this week is the following chart, which speaks for itself. This is peak bubble behavior and the next 1000-2000 Points will be made on the downside. So given the current pattern of the s&p500 I do think we are in the last blow-off top of this bull cycle and will enter a trading range which will evolve into the new bear trend once we break below 5000. This market is made up of 7 stocks which get all the liquidity. My best guess on the path forward over the next months is in the weekly chart below. We will probably spend more time between 5000 - 5600 to form a credible top. A head & shoulders top would be the most probable outcome. current market cycle: Max bullishness & peak bubble territory again. Will end over the next weeks. key levels: 5400 - 5600 bull case: Bulls buying it all on the 7 stocks. Volume on this up move since May is absolute atrocious but that does not help anyone so far. It’s only going up and as long as bulls keep making money literally buying every dip, we continue up. I have 3 wave series leading up to 5500-5600 and all end there. Invalidation is below 5300. bear case: What do the bears have going for them? Nothing and if anything, pure speculation and low probability stuff. The chart is showing multiple wedges, we are clearly in multiple third pushes up (W5) and volume is drying up. Once the institutions begin taking profits on the magnificent 7, we will see big moves down to end the trend and enter a trading range. The bull trend line around 5300 will be hit in the next 2-4 weeks and afterwards I think we will form a lower high before we will be on our way to 5000 again. As of now I think bears want to see a big climactic bull bar to 5600 before they begin shorting again. Invalidation is above 5620. outlook last week: “Bullish above 5320 for another leg up to 5500 or higher but only if it happens until end of Tuesday.” → Last Sunday we traded 5355 and now we are at 5502. 5500 was my target if bulls trade above 5400 and I hope you made some of those 100 points. Good outlook it was. short term: No interest in buying here unless it’s a momentum scalp. I will look for weakness and a trade back to a test of the daily 20ema which is around 5400. Bulls are still heavily favored in terms of probability. medium-long term: Bull trend is in the last legs and this will soon pull back much further and form a big trading range. 5600 could be hit but the next bigger points are made trading back down to 5300 and 5000 over the next weeks/months. current swing trade: None Chart update: This is my best guess on how the next 3-9 months will play out. Two-legged correction down to 5000 over the next 4-8 weeks, followed by a last lower high before the next big bear trend will begin. That’s only price-wise but not time wise. Could get there much faster or much slower.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by priceactiontds