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MES1! trade ideas

April 28 Trade Journal & Stock Market AnalysisEOD accountability report: +1228 Sleep: 8 hour, Overall health: :thumbsup: Signals were pretty on point today, almost all of them worked out effectively, I mainly use the signals to guide my direction and 20pt stoploss to prevent the position from blowing up. **Daily Trade Signals based on VX Algo System** — 9:30 AM VXAlgo ES X1 Sell Signal, (B+ Set up, triple sell) 10:30 AM Market Structure flipped bearish on VX Algo X3! 12:35 PM VXAlgo ES X1 Buy signal (Double signal) — 2:00 PM VXAlgo NQ X3 Buy Signal 2:30 PM Market Structure flipped bullish on VX Algo X3! Next day plan--> Over 5470 = Bullish, Under 5470 = Bearish Video Recap -->https://www.tradingview.com/u/WallSt007/#published-charts
CME_MINI:ES1!
by WallSt007
S&P futures ES1! .. or SPY parallel channels for this weekNot much to explain here...since so many these days can't last through even a half a paragraph....but, the two lines capture a decent amount of stuff and show the most recent action of today with the ping-pong whipsaw. Does it hit the question mark or stay in the lower parallel...it all depends on how Amazon and Apple can 'Tim cook-their books' and show the world that raging credit defaults and stagnating US with tensions going to hell around the globe doesn't matter. Would guess from Wed-Thursday that: Microsoft dips early and then trends sideways before a slight tilt down.... Meta just rips cause I have no idea how they achieve anything except cooking so... Qualcomm makes up a guidance that show modest 2nd half recovery after "The current tariff uncertainty is stabilized and the need for technology advancement outshines global tensions" or something to that affect. Amazon and Apple are a repeat of what I said before....Amazon will say they had strong buying heading into the tariffs but they see a slight pull back in consumer willingness to spend. Their cloud-whatever will somehow deliver them through the earnings call with some like 2.37% beat or some crap- but they will probably use 3 words that some algo doesn't want to hear and their stock will initially pop and then retrace the pop and pullback the equivalent move but to the downside. And lastly, Apple....don't care for them and will just say this- "We see strong foreign demand for the iPhone abroad with a high interest from India now that manufacturing will be shifted to that market(minus the fact it is only for the US market...all foreign production will be in China still and the "made in India" will be a quasi fulfillment slight of hand). While we are wading through the uncertainty of China-US relations in regard to tariffs- we see a sustained interest in iPhone sales with an increase in Apple cloud/whatever they call it- services maybe- from foreigners". So.......Apple goes initially down on some like margin metric being a miss or like revenue being like .8% off...but then Cook squeaks a fat steamer on the intercom which allows for the short reversal to the upside, which will kinda die out by next Monday. Or.....All the above get slammed and the puts go into the weekend happy. Check OptionCharts.io for the open interest for the 30th and may 1st...decent action on the put positions already hitting almost 3/4 million...also just be understanding that Wednesday may be window dressing day for monthly hedge fund/brokerage portfolio allocations...So if there are bad earnings they may dump stock to let their people know they aren't exposed as heavy...but if good earnings you may get a ripping short squeeze from them trying to load up their customers with the big 7...so be careful out there... Play with the money you have...and not with the money you can't afford to lose....for margins make marginal gains and massive losses when things go wrong- just see the Japanese Pensions unloading treasuries...some benefit...many lose... :) 5 min view: Addition of one more parallel on the 30 min: and a 5 min view of the one above on this week's lines:
CME_MINI:ES1!
by CYQOTEK
S&P 500 ... ES1! ... SPY... a Gann review from 2000Basically performed another Gann Box copy-n-Stack technique and have aligned everything exactly on the daily and then switched to the 4hr Some interesting levels occur and seems like that gap fill at 5566.25 or so or possible run to 5600 would be in the cards...but a lot of levels are smashing all together. Make sure to expand the chart by using you mouse along the bottom of the scale, pull it left to expand or right to shrink.... Make sure to also click in the bottom right corner, hover you mouse over where price meets the date on the scale and click the "L" Log function to see if anything else comes up that different from my yellow "attention getting" marks. Well....that's about all I got for doodles for tonight....enjoy. weekly view to see the stacking and the duration of this run since 2000..thats quick high up eh?? 1 hr view with gap highlighted: 5min close up with lower gap highlighted....so green path if good earnings week/economic data, or red path which trends to that gap fill...the choice is the investor's
CME_MINI:ES1!
by CYQOTEK
$ES = More downside, the bear flag and $3914 - $4376 targetsIf you look at the chart, you can see that ever since April 7th, we've been consolidating in a bear flag. I think what's most likely here is that we break down and hit one of the targets below. The reason being, if we look at the chart since the start of the correction, we've seen 4/5 waves so far, so it would make sense that there'd be a final leg down. Let's see if we end up hitting one of the targets. If we do, it'll mark the bottom of the correction.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by benjihyam
2
ES Futures: Upcoming Mag 7 Earnings and NFP Report This week, although there was not much market-moving macro newsflow over the weekend, we are approaching month-end. In addition, several key catalysts are on the horizon, including earnings from the Magnificent 7 and the release of Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) data, which typically arrives on the first Friday of the month. The Federal Reserve is currently in its blackout period ahead of the interest rate decision scheduled for May 7th, 2025. As part of our process, we will be reviewing technical levels and drawing a plan based on current market structure. ES futures are currently trading above the March 2025 lows. A “death cross” — where the 50-day moving average crosses below the 200-day moving average on the daily timeframe — was recently observed. This pattern is commonly touted by analysts as a bear market indicator. However, in a macro-driven environment, this could potentially be a false signal. Key Levels: • mCVAL: 5622 • Upper Neutral Zone: 5620 -5585 • March 2025 Low: 5533.75 • 2022 CVAH: 5384.75 • Lower Neutral Zone: 5171.75 -5150.75 Our scenarios are as follows: Scenario 1: Range-bound price action A P-shaped micro composite profile suggests resistance at our neutral zone. It is labeled neutral because the price is trading above the March 2025 lows. However, if the level above acts as resistance, we expect further range-bound price action. Markets may trade below the mCVAL for further price discovery and potentially establish a new short-term range, with the 2024 lows acting as downside support. Scenario 2: Mag 7 and NFP as bullish catalysts Four of the Magnificent 7 companies are reporting earnings this week. The Mag 7 collectively represent around one-third of the S&P 500 index by market capitalization. Microsoft and Meta are scheduled to report on Wednesday after the close, while Amazon and Apple report on Thursday after the close. On Friday, the NFP data will be released. This could serve as a fundamentally net-positive catalyst for U.S. markets, especially in light of recent shocks that have weakened sentiment. In this scenario, we will be closely watching our neutral zone and mCVAL as potential areas to initiate long trades. Glossary Index for all technical terms used: Blue Zones: Neutral zones. C: Composite (prefix before VAL, VAH, VPOC, VP, AVP) mC: micro-Composite (prefix before VAL, VAH, VPOC, VP, AVP) VAL: Value Area Low VAH: Value Area High VP: Volume Profile CME_MINI:ES1!
CME_MINI:ES1!
by EdgeClear
S&P500: Rebound or Bull Trap?Over the past week, the S&P500 weekly chart showed a key technical signal: the formation of a bullish engulfing. This pattern emerged after several weeks of strong monthly bearish pressure, suggesting a potential reversal attempt or, at the very least, a technical rebound. Analyzing the key levels, the price reacted inside a major demand area (visible on the monthly timeframe), positioned between 5,450 and 5,500 points. The reaction from this zone reinforces the validity of the engulfing and suggests the market could now aim for the first resistance targets around 5,600 - 5,650. Further upside targets are located at 5,837 and 6,023, previously marked as high-confluence zones. From an institutional positioning perspective, the latest COT Report (April 22, 2025) reveals interesting developments: Commercials (big players) increased their long contracts by +22,226 units, showing strong interest in upside protection. Non-Commercials (speculators) also increased their longs (+8,754), but added even more to their shorts (+20,667). The Net Positioning for Non-Commercials remains negative but has stabilized at less extreme levels compared to March, suggesting a possible phase of accumulation or preparation for a sentiment shift. 📊 The Net Positions chart shows a reduction in net short pressure — a warning sign for those still heavily short. Summary: The weekly engulfing is a technical signal not to underestimate. We are trading within a strong monthly demand zone. COT data suggests a decrease in bearish pressure, although not yet a full sentiment reversal. However, caution is necessary: a firm break below 5,450 would invalidate the bullish signal and reopen the path toward corrections at 5,200 and 5,000. Current Strategy: Slight bullish bias above 5,500. Short-term target: 5,600 → 5,650. Next targets: 5,837 and 6,023. Invalidation level: weekly close below 5,450. Watching the price action around key resistance levels will be crucial: the market will decide whether this rebound consolidates or becomes just a trap for new buyers.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by EdgeTradingJourney
1
Stock market, fundamental highlights to watch this weekWhile equity markets have rebounded from their low point in early April, this week, straddling the end of April and the beginning of May, sees the release of top-tier fundamental data. The trade war is the new dominant fundamental factor. But the market is most interested in the impact on US inflation and the US labor market. The US PCE inflation report on Wednesday April 30 and the NFP report on Friday May 2 should therefore be kept under review. Only the path of trade diplomacy can keep the trajectory of US disinflation intact and thus enable the Federal Reserve to resume cutting its federal funds rate for a sound reason (i.e. inflation trending towards 2% and a stable unemployment rate of around 4% of the working population). This resumption of the Fed funds rate cut is essential to validate the S&P500's major low on the 4800 point support. Here are 4 reasons why we believe the trade war is unlikely to cause a second wave of inflation. The PCE index on Wednesday April 30 should see a resumption of the decline in the nominal inflation rate towards 2%. Reason 1: The first all-out trade war between China and the USA between 2017 and 2019 did not cause an inflationary wave, and even ended with a trade agreement between China and the USA in December 2019 (Phase One Trade Deal) Reason 2: The trade war directly concerns agricultural products and manufactured goods, but no services are directly affected. Services account for 70% of the calculation of US inflation rates, and the USA is a service economy accounting for 80% of its GDP. Reason 3: With the risk of a global economic slowdown against the backdrop of the trade war, the price of oil has plummeted on the stock market, and this will have a strong downward impact on the nominal inflation rate, with a direct + indirect effect estimated at 10% in the calculation of inflation rates. Reason 4: Disinflation in the real estate sector is structural, accounting for 30% of the inflation calculation, and has no connection with the trade war. The NFP report on Friday May 2 will enable us to assess whether or not the trade war has already begun to damage the US labor market. This is the ultimate barometer for assessing the likelihood of an economic recession. CONCLUSION: this week, we'll be keeping a very close eye on US PCE inflation, the NFP report and, of course, all the news surrounding trade diplomacy and the Trump/Powell relationship (ahead of the FED's decision on Wednesday May 7). DISCLAIMER: This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only. The presented idea (including market commentary, market data and observations) is not a work product of any research department of Swissquote or its affiliates. This material is intended to highlight market action and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice. If you are a retail investor or lack experience in trading complex financial products, it is advisable to seek professional advice from licensed advisor before making any financial decisions. This content is not intended to manipulate the market or encourage any specific financial behavior. Swissquote makes no representation or warranty as to the quality, completeness, accuracy, comprehensiveness or non-infringement of such content. The views expressed are those of the consultant and are provided for educational purposes only. 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CME_MINI:ES1!
by Swissquote
Weekly Chart Shows Buyers Holding, But Resistance TightensMarket Overview: Futures are hovering at a crucial zone. In this update, we analyze the evolving trend structure, dissect price action at Fib resistance, and highlight what levels matter most heading into the next session. Bearish/Bullish Trend Analysis Trend Condition: Bullish Trends: 8 Bearish Trends: 6 Overview: The market is currently bullish, with 8 trend lines signaling upward momentum. However, the presence of 6 bearish trends shows that mixed conditions remain across different timeframes. Price Action and Momentum Zones Current Price and Change: Currently, the S&P 500 Futures are at 5,520.25, down by 32.25 points or -0.58%. Market Behavior: The weekly chart shows consolidation just below major resistance, with sellers maintaining pressure near the 23.6% retracement zone. Price action remains choppy after several weeks of volatility. Momentum Zones: Price is stuck within a corrective zone between the 23.6% and 38.2% retracement levels. In this context, these zones act as countertrend resistance, and bulls need a clean breakout above 5,537 to shift sentiment more decisively. Fib Retracement Levels Current Position Relative to Levels: The market is currently just below the 23.6% retracement level. Key Fibonacci Levels: 23.6% → 5,537.68 38.2% → 5,148.66 50.0% → 4,834.25 61.8% → 4,519.84 Analysis: A clear breakout above 5,537.68 would indicate a more meaningful recovery attempt. Failure here could send price back toward the 5,148 or 4,834 retracement levels if momentum fades. Overall Market Interpretation While the broader trend is still bullish on this timeframe, the failure to reclaim 5,537 suggests caution. Consolidation below major Fib levels implies that buyers are struggling to regain control. A breakout or breakdown from this range will set the next directional tone. Summary The S&P 500 Futures are showing mixed strength early in the week. The broader trend remains bullish overall, but the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level is acting as resistance. This level will likely determine whether consolidation continues or a stronger move higher begins.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by traderspro_charts
Weekly Market Forecast: Buy Stocks! Sell Oil! Buy Gold!In this video, we will analyze the S&P 500, NASDAQ, DOW JONES, Oil, Gold and Silver futures, for the week of April 28 - May 2nd. Markets are looking tradeable again. The indices look bullish, creating +FVGs as they move higher. Oil has corrected a bearish impulse, so it could be poised to move lower from the Daily and Weekly -FVG. Gold took a breather last week and could move higher from the Weekly +FVG it just created. Let's go! Enjoy! May profits be upon you. Leave any questions or comments in the comment section. I appreciate any feedback from my viewers! Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis. Thank you so much! Disclaimer: I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor. All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies. I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here. Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by RT_Money
3
S&P 500 futures- ES1! - or SPY...interesting price actionComment on the thoughts to the reliability of this and what people think may occur in the next couple days...are we looking to refill the 5332.25 gap fill on the 4Hr chart or maybe a move to 571.46 on SPY and then retreat back? Seeing how the Stochastic Momentum dipped on a rising price and may loosely be said to be divergent also kinda correlates with that upper 50% channel orange line it is hitting. So if you pulled back to that gap and then ripped to that orange 50% upper channel line again but close above it then you have a chance of hitting the top of that top channel red line. But...as I always do...try to find indicators that explain actions on a chart since geometry means noting unless you have an underlayment of solid architecture underneath. See how only that one --?-- is the only unexplained level to not correlate. Again...thoughts on this or anything negative or just "wat'evr bruh" is all welcomed. Was just in the middle of taking a break from cleaning out my Garage and thought a few minutes of doodling would be a nice relaxer before heading back into that 4 door packed monster. Only to say that due to me not maybe putting as much attention into things as possible, but again this is a doodle and not an actual analysis... But as my previous idea mentioned...you have until Tuesday to recorrect and then its hunting season for whatever Apple, Microsoft, Meta, and Qualcomm can effect things in that order...So top of the channel if all of those are good and bottom of the channel and breaking that like 5132.25 or something bottom line to move lower. Just simple considerations- Amazon said to be putting AI/Data centers on hold contractually along with tariff pressures. Microsoft same as above but like minus the tariffs Meta is literally a joke of actual physical production of economy- i mean maybe marketplace...but ad revenue isnt making the world go round when you literally state you will flood your services with AI profiles for more engagement...look it up f you pay them for ads and Qualcomm...which is being wrecked by China chips ban, even if they get there by proxy...not as much money as before, and even with computers being exempt along with smartphones, their semi business hasn't been selling hardcore since the US consumer is strapped and there apparently isn't much inventory of high end consumer goods flying around. But to the last one Apple: Hey, just buy the only thing we sell which have been a cult following since like 2008 and maybe like we may bring a car into the picture...Well China Huawei already made a car and their phone is literally in every metric better- but is banned in the US cause you know national security----but you can sell iPhone in China- how very communist of them to do so...they should try to be more capitalist and ban things like BYD or NIO or Huawei like US lol Anywho....One of my customers at my farm was one of the tops involved in Amazon and had quarterly meetings face to face with Bezos and the Board....She dumped her stock in the first week of February after her 3 month hold on share sales was over after already leaving the company 6 months prior. And her partner's brother working for Citi said to sell all their equities and go into the top 4 Gold and Silver miners along with owning the two physical metals as well. Phone and consumer electronics...exempt He is really showing those communists who don't ban US goods from entering their markets who is boss--- while not yet caring about the 1 Trillion dollar defense bill which adds more government spending to the docket and is almost an increase of exactly DODGE's supposed proven savings... 850 bill plus 150 bill saved = 1 Trillion for Pentagon...see math works- its the Transitive Property people, or the conservation of energy for the physics bros amongst us. :) facts///not feelz
CME_MINI:ES1!
by CYQOTEK
S&P futures daily chart review4/27/2024 Daily Chart analysis Market is All-in-long, but the market tempo would suggest a pause or a pullback after 4 bull bars. Likely 1 more bar up before a pullback. Elements to note: Break of the broad bear channel down, an important component of a possible MTR setup. Notice the EMA cross and confirmation, usually leading to some sideways, but good foundation for higher prices. April 2nd was an outside up bar. There are bulls trapped here, so sellers above, and this is a price level likely to tested in the near term.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by AlSmith22
S&P Futures weekly chart review4/27/2025 Outside up bar last week needing continuation. Notice the bear bar of 2 weeks abo triggered and then reversed, trapping sellers. Buyers below. Outside up bars are expanding triangles. Likely we pulllback into the range of the bar, reverse and close above the bar. Good probability of trend continuation up. Momentum is strong, even though this is a second leg reversal back to a breakout point. For the bulls, the best case scenario is an initial selloff, then reversal and back up to form a 3rd leg of a wedge. But after that, likely to go back down. The bear channel down was strong, and bears will want a second leg, even if it eventually forms a failed flag. I view the corrective move down as 17 weeks, so likely 8-9 weeks of sideways to up, of which we are in week 3. So likely more time of sideways to up. So - expecting an initial selloff, then higher prices leading to another leg down for the bears. There are sellers above, and buyers below. Best case for bears is eventual trend resumption. Best case for bulls is a failed flag formation and back to new highs.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by AlSmith22
S&P Futures monthly chart review4-27-25 Update The big April bear bar went too far too fast to be sustainable for the bears Even if it had closed on it's low, that would have been terrible for the bears. Stop would have been too far away and would invite a fade. As it stands, it is a a bad bar for both bulls and bears. Bears see tremendous buying pressure, forming the large wick. But as is, the bar is a bad buy signal and bulls would face a similarly large stop. For bears, ideally they get a few days of down to get back to the mid-point at least, but that is 300-400 points to make it a compelling bear bar, so unlikely. Bulls can erase the bear bar with 100 pts or so, but probability is that the bar finishes with a similar appearance. April's bar is a Breakout and pullback in one bar, likely sellers above. Interestingly, the LT bullish trend line was broken by the wick, which is a typical element of a MTR setup. However, a MTR setup would likely require the formation of a right shoulder first. Most likely scenario here is Price falls back into the body of the bar, reverse up, but then comeback to test the tail of the bar in 2-3 months.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by AlSmith22
ANALISI TECNICA MERCATI AMERICANIHappy Saturday to all traders! In this video we analyze the American market and see what we can expect in the coming weeks. Recently, the markets have reacted positively to the statements of President Trump, who made it clear that he has no intention of removing Jerome Powell from the leadership of the Federal Reserve. This reassurance helped to allay concerns about the independence of the Fed, leading to a rally in the main indices: the Nasdaq gained 2.3%, the S&P 500 1.4% and the Dow Jones 1%.​ In addition, the administration has shown signs of openness towards reducing trade tariffs with China, fueling investor optimism. Despite the recent reassurances, uncertainties related to the Fed's monetary policy remain. Powell stressed that, although inflation is falling, there is no rush to proceed with further rate cuts, maintaining a cautious approach. Investors will therefore need to carefully monitor the upcoming macroeconomic data, especially those related to inflation and employment, which could influence the Fed's future decisions. Next week promises to be decisive for the US stock markets. Although the recent statements by Trump and Powell have helped improve investor sentiment, the presence of technical resistance and uncertainty about the Fed's future policies suggest caution. An upward break of key levels could confirm the continuation of the positive trend, while signs of weakness could indicate the need for a consolidation phase. Have a good weekend everyone and happy trading. Thanks Ciao Mauro I will mention my three rules that I constantly cultivate: Patience, discipline and always have a plan.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by Mauro_Mariani