February trading rule The idea is to grow a small 1200 account strictly trading my setup and see where we get to at the end of February.
This is a transparent journal and I will be sharing my thoughts as i trade.
MNQ1! trade ideas
NQ Range (02-03-25)Another Friday high to Sunday/Monday O/N low of 1,000 points or more, new pattern? The drops are in the off session with gaps. BTD/FOMO's are trapped (is what I see). NAZ at 21,256 (2025 Open Price), under Danger Zone TL (Orange TL above) and near channel bottom. White arrow is range for break out and 20,695 is TLX Spoke level that is the Danger Zone Express Lane (break under). On the upside, that is easy: Buy any Dead Zone hold (after 1st hour) or any weekday O/N until that does not work. Prior 1,300 did retrace most of drop in 4 days, only to be retested in 1 night. November 2024 to current has been a channel that is setting up a huge/massive move. We do not know the direction, most likely lower since the Reg Session just can't seem to hold or lift the NAZ higher.
NQ Range (02-10-25)NQ Range has been the play since 11/24, range range range. Breakout already, we have seen three Friday's in a row where the NAZ sells off (the opposite of past 2 years). Unless Monday redirects this one (will need off session O/N Mystery Magic), we could break range and move to the Yellow Brick Arrow. NAZ is on Danger Zone TL now, 21,250 is 1st lower retest, then 20,695. Should these hold, Long back up. No Hold, Strong Short to lower KL's. We have seen the NAZ (mysteriously) redirect most drops at/near danger zone key levels, this will have to continue (expect this 1st). Should it not then we should see a free fall, drop test, fluff clean out. The Post's range may play out over 1-2 weeks should the super slow price action (on the downside) continue. GO Fed, Washington Street, BTD/FOMO Forever, set that Long Trap up for Joe Retail.
From almost Blowing Funded account to being back in ProfitsThis was a perfect illustration of how our emotions can affect us and our trading decisions.
However through my 5 years of trading, I've been working on mastering my emotions as best as I can and as you guys can see-- I still had several times where I showed plenty of emotions. This leads me to come to the conclusion I still have a long way to go with mastering my emotions but progress is being made, and that is enough for me. If you guys liked this idea and post please give it a like!
Forex and Futures Trading Risk Disclosure:
The National Futures Association (NFA) and Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), the regulatory agencies for the forex and futures markets in the United States, require that customers be informed about potential risks in trading these markets. If you do not fully understand the risks, please seek advice from an independent financial advisor before engaging in trading.
Trading forex and futures on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade, you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite.
There is a possibility of losing some or all of your initial investment, and therefore, you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. Be aware of the risks associated with leveraged trading and seek professional advice if necessary.
BDRipTrades Market Opinions (also applies to BDelCiel and Aligned & Wealthy LLC):
Any opinions, news, research, analysis, prices, or other information contained in my content (including live streams, videos, and posts) are provided as general market commentary only and do not constitute investment advice. BDRipTrades, BDelCiel, and Aligned & Wealthy LLC will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including but not limited to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from the use of or reliance on such information.
Accuracy of Information: The content I provide is subject to change at any time without notice and is intended solely for educational and informational purposes. While I strive for accuracy, I do not guarantee the completeness or reliability of any information. I am not responsible for any losses incurred due to reliance on any information shared through my platforms.
Government-Required Risk Disclaimer and Disclosure Statement:
CFTC RULE 4.41 - HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.
Performance results discussed in my content are hypothetical and subject to limitations. There are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading strategy. One of the limitations of hypothetical trading results is that they do not account for real-world financial risk.
Furthermore, past performance of any trading system or strategy does not guarantee future results.
General Trading Disclaimer:
Trading in futures, forex, and other leveraged products involves substantial risk and is not appropriate for all investors.
Do not trade with money you cannot afford to lose.
I do not provide buy/sell signals, financial advice, or investment recommendations.
Any decisions you make based on my content are solely your responsibility.
By engaging with my content, including live streams, videos, educational materials, and any communication through my platforms, you acknowledge and accept that all trading decisions you make are at your own risk. BDRipTrades, BDelCiel, and Aligned & Wealthy LLC cannot and will not be held responsible for any trading losses you may incur.
MNQ1! is bound to move to 22,433 by the end of this month/we have been struggling with the huge daily gap, and i think it is about time we break out of it, if you peep how we have been moving, we recently disrespected the smaller Gap on the daily and are currently in the larger one. And on this larger gap we have already broke the CE. so i am personally looking for longs, i currently have been on a win streak on MNQ and GC, really easy longs this week as long as you know what you're looking for.
Risks are Bubbling in the Nasdaq-100The Nasdaq-100 has led this cycle, driven by U.S. economic resilience and an unprecedented investment surge in artificial intelligence and cloud infrastructure.
However, risks are emerging from overvaluation, excessive AI spending that has yet to translate into revenue, and geopolitical uncertainties tied to the Trump administration.
With the Nasdaq-100 trading below its all-time high and lacking sufficient catalysts for a breakout, a near-term correction could occur if these risks materialize. Investors may consider a short position to capitalize on this potential downturn.
AI Spending and Overvaluation Risks
The "Magnificent Seven"—Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, and Tesla—have dominated market sentiment, collectively accounting for approximately 63% of the Nasdaq-100's total market cap. This highlights the rally's extreme concentration.
Much of the momentum has been driven by high expectations for rapid growth in artificial intelligence, further amplifying the market's reliance on these key players.
The broader backdrop has also been supportive: US economic growth continues to surprise to the upside, with growth expected at 2.3% for the year, while corporate earnings—even more so for tech—are likely to rise 7-14%, as per multiple analyst outlooks.
However, recent earnings reports have injected caution into AI enthusiasm. Alphabet missed revenue forecasts, sending its stock down 7.3%, while AMD dropped 6.3% after weak data-center sales. Amazon's AWS posted $28.79B in revenue, just shy of the $28.84B estimate, raising concerns over AI over-spending.
Despite this, AI capex remains aggressive. Meta reaffirmed its $60-65B 2025 capex plan, despite $17B in Metaverse losses last year. Microsoft defended its Azure and OpenAI bets, while Alphabet, despite AI competition pressures , is committing $75B to AI infrastructure in 2025.
With ambitions and excitement all around, the market’s reaction toward these companies, in light of underwhelming earnings and efficient competition from China, has not been so forgiving.
Cracks are forming, and a more cautious approach to Nasdaq-100 exposure may be warranted.
Valuations are stretched, with the index’s forward P/E ratio at 34 , up from 28 in 2023. While the AI boom, particularly in consumer adoption, took off in early 2023, the market is now pricing in near-flawless execution—yet investors have yet to fully grapple with the rising costs, intensifying competition, and looming regulatory scrutiny.
Risks remain in some of the largest Nasdaq-100 stocks, particularly Nvidia and Tesla. Nvidia’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 50.7 raises concerns about its ability to sustain past explosive growth. Similarly, Tesla, with a P/E ratio of 183.6, faces headwinds from a slowdown in the EV industry, making its valuation increasingly vulnerable.
Political and Trade Uncertainty
Donald Trump’s return to the White House has generated significant energy and excitement. However, the extremity of his policies could create new trade uncertainties, particularly for companies dependent on Chinese supply chains and international revenue.
Since his inauguration, Trump has announced a series of tariffs against major trading partners. The risk of retaliatory measures raises the possibility of a full-blown trade war. His aggressive stance on trade could introduce sudden and unpredictable market volatility.
The previous trade war saw tariffs disrupt global tech supply chains and put pressure on corporate margins. For instance, in 2018-2019 Nasdaq-100 volatility spiked and tech earnings growth slowed.
If history repeats itself, the overextended valuations of Nasdaq-100 could probably get a reality check, particularly if these firms start guiding for higher costs in upcoming earnings calls.
Technicals Point to Upcoming Resistance
The moving averages for the Nasdaq-100 reflect a bullish sentiment owing to the strong rally for the past several months.
However, the ATH level of 22,100 has proven strong resistance with prices testing this level multiple times over the past few months. A strong catalyst may be required to pass this level.
During previous corrections, price has reached between the 50-day and 100-day simple moving average (SMA).
Momentum indicators suggest that a short-term downward trend may be imminent.
Periodic movements in the index suggest a downturn is imminent and prices may reach as far as the S1 pivot point at 20,700.
Options Signal Growing Bearish Sentiment
Options positioning on E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures and Micro E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures signals a bearish sentiment. OI and volume put/call ratio for both E-mini NQ and Micro E-mini NQ are greater than 1 suggesting higher put positioning than call. There is a particualrly high concentration of puts at the March expiry.
Source: CME QuikStrike
Hypothetical Trade Setup
Given the frothing risk factors impacting the Nasdaq-100, risk of a sharp decline is high. Elevated valuations, escalating trade tensions, and slowing AI rally, all risk a correction in the index.
This decline may materialize in the next 2–3 weeks, aligning with critical macroeconomic events, including Federal Reserve announcements, inflation data releases, and upcoming corporate earnings reports.
With a correction likely, investors can express this view using a short position in Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 (MNQ) futures expiring in March (MNQH2025). Each contract requires initial margin of USD 2,303 as of 10/Feb and provides exposure to USD 2 x Nasdaq index (~43,400).
Investors can also use the standard E-mini NQ futures to express the same bearish view with larger notional sizes.
Entry: 21,700
Target: 21,200
Stop Loss: 22,100
Profit at Target: USD 1000 ((21,700-21,200) x 2)
Loss at Stop: USD 800 ((21,700-22,100) x 2)
Reward to Risk: 1.25x
CME Group lists a raft of products covering a range of asset classes more accessible while also enabling granular hedging for portfolio managers.
Portfolio managers can learn more on how to access these micro products by visiting CME Micro Products page on CME portal to discover micro-sized contracts to gain macro exposures.
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MARKET DATA
CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs tradingview.com/cme .
DISCLAIMER
This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
SELL ON NASIt has been in a channel for quite some time..Yet the selling pressure has been very prominent. after much liquidity was built up and a with a master candle being broken to the down side and seeing a sell flat top close below gave me the indication this was a great area to execute the sell.. if we can break that low it will be a massive trade.
Catching the FOMC buy on MNQ - Leap ChallengeUsing the Paper trading leap account for this, did not want to risk my prop firm account but as we can see we had an extremely profitable day. This happens to me often where I decide not to trade for safety and then the day I decide not to trade is usually my biggest days sometimes. Lol
Anyways, If you guys want me to share and post the execution of this trade, I would really appreciate if you guys could give this post some likes.
Please do follow and subscribe for my MNQ & NQ market insights. I am happy to see you here!
Forex, Crypto and Futures Trading Risk Disclosure:
The National Futures Association (NFA) and Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), the regulatory agencies for the forex and futures markets in the United States, require that customers be informed about potential risks in trading these markets. If you do not fully understand the risks, please seek advice from an independent financial advisor before engaging in trading.
Trading forex and futures on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade, you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite.
There is a possibility of losing some or all of your initial investment, and therefore, you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. Be aware of the risks associated with leveraged trading and seek professional advice if necessary.
BDRipTrades Market Opinions (also applies to BDelCiel and Aligned & Wealthy LLC):
Any opinions, news, research, analysis, prices, or other information contained in my content (including live streams, videos, and posts) are provided as general market commentary only and do not constitute investment advice. BDRipTrades, BDelCiel, and Aligned & Wealthy LLC will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including but not limited to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from the use of or reliance on such information.
Accuracy of Information: The content I provide is subject to change at any time without notice and is intended solely for educational and informational purposes. While I strive for accuracy, I do not guarantee the completeness or reliability of any information. I am not responsible for any losses incurred due to reliance on any information shared through my platforms.
Government-Required Risk Disclaimer and Disclosure Statement:
CFTC RULE 4.41 - HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.
Performance results discussed in my content are hypothetical and subject to limitations. There are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading strategy. One of the limitations of hypothetical trading results is that they do not account for real-world financial risk.
Furthermore, past performance of any trading system or strategy does not guarantee future results.
General Trading Disclaimer:
Trading in futures, forex, and other leveraged products involves substantial risk and is not appropriate for all investors.
Do not trade with money you cannot afford to lose.
I do not provide buy/sell signals, financial advice, or investment recommendations.
Any decisions you make based on my content are solely your responsibility.
By engaging with my content, including live streams, videos, educational materials, and any communication through my platforms, you acknowledge and accept that all trading decisions you make are at your own risk. BDRipTrades, BDelCiel, and Aligned & Wealthy LLC cannot and will not be held responsible for any trading losses you may incur.
Nasdaq (March 2025) - Weakness Across The Board #S1E6In this episode, I will take you through the devastation NFP left in it's wake and what we can draw from the signatures left behind.
With many expecting 2025 to start off with a bang, we have seen nothing but inconsistencies in price action.
Trump and his tariffs also doesn't help but the good news is, once w get through this period, we will see price action loosen up.
NQ Bearish?Going Short Due to price reacting to the OB i Will Watch This Carefully Due to the nature of the game
Analysis on the Weekend about Nasdaq 25.02.09Hello, this is Greedy All-Day.
Today's analysis is on NASDAQ.
The market movement on Friday was an extension of Thursday's briefing.
As seen in the chart, a break below the ascending trendline triggered a short entry. From the entry point, both short-term trendlines were broken, leading to a correction. This movement resulted in a 310-point decline from the entry price, which could have yielded a profit of $6,200 per contract.
As mentioned since Wednesday, I emphasized that a breakout of the resistance trendline would not necessarily lead to a buying opportunity. Hence, I did not consider any long positions. If you check the black resistance trendline, although it broke out, the highs remained similar within the white box, eventually leading the trend downward.
This analysis led to avoiding long positions and instead confirming that the short entry achieved its target.
This is the NASDAQ viewed on the daily chart.
Currently, NASDAQ has closed below the 20-day moving average on a daily basis and is heading into the weekend without a clear directional bias.
Over the past two weeks, Monday’s trading sessions have opened with gap-downs, continuing the downward trend. Even when looking at the bigger picture on the daily chart, NASDAQ remains within the consolidation zone.
Conclusion
At present, NASDAQ is consolidating on the daily chart, and Friday's close to the downside makes it unsuitable for any premature long entries.
As for shorts, entering now would be risky, as the entry point is in the middle of the consolidation range, which could lead to being shaken out.
I plan to observe the market for a day or two and will proceed with the next briefing once a clearer entry perspective emerges.
When 50% FIB retracement does not hold true for a long or short With my 3 strong candle displacement theory to the upside or downside leaving a fair value gap.
I have noticed that if there is a strong reaction to the 50th percentile retracement with continuation to the up or downside, this is a confirmation that this may hold through.
But if there is a deep dive below the 50% retracement, it tells me in most cases that we should expect a reversal.
NQ - Nasdaq is set up to POP or DROP, and here's whyIt's nagging and nagging and nagging at the U-MLH, but this Cheese must be super hard.
If we they are not able to eat through it, open and close above it, then the I'm on to stalk a short.
PTG1 is the 1/4 line
PTG2 is the Center-Line
IF we open and close above the U-MLH, the target is the white Center-Line.
It's simple, clear and there's not more to babble about this opportunity.
Nasdaq (March 2025) - NFP Has Arrived! #S1E5Expect a whole heap of mumbo jumbo as NFP is released later on today.
Roll up your socks, tighten your boots cos Today will be a WILD RIDE!!
Nasdaq (March 2025) - FOMC Disappointment! #S1E3FOMC did not play out as expected!
Here, I explain how FOMC affected the technical between YM, NQ and ES.
Thursday Nasdaq Analysis 25.02.06Hello, this is Greedy All-Day.
Today's analysis is focused on the Nasdaq.
Chart Link:
Let’s start by reviewing Wednesday’s briefing.
We entered a buy position after the resistance trendline was broken, with the first entry occurring at the yellow box.
The second entry was made after breaking above the previous high of 21,694.
With the horizontal line set as the target, the price rose about $180 from the first entry, resulting in a $3,600 profit per contract.
As for sell positions, there was no entry since the upward trendline held and no trend reversal occurred.
Chart Link:
Let’s review the daily chart.
The Nasdaq is still consolidating within the pattern.
If this consolidation is broken, we could see a trend reversal, which could further strengthen the upward momentum. However, for now, it seems the price is still moving within the pattern.
Chart Link:
Here’s today’s trading strategy:
Buy Position
No planned entry.
Reason: Although the uptrend is clear, the price is approaching a critical area marked by the black box on the daily chart.
In this area, the price could either break out and then retrace or lead to a trend reversal. It could also continue to gain buying momentum, making this zone highly uncertain. Therefore, no buy signals are planned.
Sell Position
Entry 1: Upon a break below the upward trendline at the orange box.
Reason: The current uptrend has been following a staircase-like expansion pattern, making the timing of a trend reversal uncertain. Thus, we’ll prioritize observing a break below a trendline slightly higher than the previous one.
Entry 2: Upon a break below the upward trendline at the blue box.
Context: The first trendline break and the trendline we've been monitoring since Monday will be critical.
Conclusion
Since the gap down on Monday, the Nasdaq has been continuously rising.
This once again confirms that we should focus on reacting to the charts rather than making premature predictions.
Wishing you all profitable trades today!
MNQ!/NQ1! Day Trade Plan for 02/04/25MNQ!/NQ1! Day Trade Plan for 02/04/25
📈21621.75 ; 21579,75- 21603, 21799.75- 21823
📉21220.75 ; 21163- 21139.75, 20943- 20920
Like and share for more daily ES/NQ levels 🤓📈📉🎯💰
(💎: IF THERE IS NOT MUCH VOLATILITY; FOCUS ON ZONES VERSES INDIVIDUAL PRICE LEVELS)
*These levels are derived from comprehensive backtesting and research, demonstrating over 90% accuracy. This statistical foundation suggests that price movements are likely to exceed initial estimates.*
Smart Money Strategy on NASDAQ 100 E-mini Futures (NQ1!) - 30-MiInstrument: NASDAQ 100 E-mini Futures (NQ1!)
Timeframe: 30-Minute Chart
Trade Type: Long/Short (Based on Smart Money Analysis)
Smart Money Concept:
Institutional Order Flow: Identify areas where institutional traders are likely to enter or exit positions.
Liquidity Zones: Focus on areas of high liquidity where price is likely to react.
Fair Value Gaps:
Gap Identification: Look for gaps between the high of one candle and the low of the next, indicating potential areas of imbalance.
Gap Filling: Anticipate price movement towards filling these gaps as part of the market's natural tendency to seek equilibrium.
Entry Strategy:
Entry Point: Enter the trade when price approaches a fair value gap with confirmation from volume and price action.
Stop Loss: Place a stop loss beyond the gap to protect against unexpected moves.
Position Size: Adjust based on risk tolerance and account size.
Current Market Conditions:
Economic Indicators: Consider recent economic data that may influence institutional behavior.
Volume Analysis: Use volume spikes to confirm the presence of Smart Money activity.
Target Profit Strategy:
Target Levels: Set profit targets at key liquidity zones or previous highs/lows.
Trailing Stop: Implement a trailing stop to secure profits as the trade progresses.
Risk Management:
Risk-Reward Ratio: Aim for a risk-reward ratio of at least 1:2 to ensure favorable trade outcomes.
Continuous Monitoring: Stay alert to changes in market conditions and adjust the strategy accordingly.
Conclusion: This trade on the NASDAQ 100 E-mini Futures (NQ1!) leverages the Smart Money concept and fair value gaps to identify strategic entry and exit points. By understanding institutional order flow and maintaining disciplined risk management, traders can enhance their trading performance.
indicators are Lux Algo Smart Money Concepts and Orderblocks, and Fair Value Gaps. All by @LuxAlgo_Team
Wednesday Nasdaq Analysis 25.02.05Hello, this is Greedy All-Day.
Today’s analysis focuses on the NASDAQ.
Tuesday’s Briefing Results
Chart:
Let's begin by reviewing Tuesday’s briefing results.
On Tuesday, as the price broke above the resistance trendline, our first long entry was taken. A second long entry followed when the price broke above 21600. The target—a horizontal line at 21685—was reached before a correction occurred.
From the entry point, the price rose by approximately $245, yielding a profit of about $4,900 per contract on the long side.
On the sell side, no entry signal was triggered, so no sell position was taken.
Daily Chart Analysis
Chart:
Looking at the daily chart, the NASDAQ appears to still be converging within a narrowing range.
The current position seems to be right before a directional decision is made, positioned near the middle of the Ichimoku Cloud. However, this sideways movement may persist, and the longer it continues, the more likely it is that a breakout in either direction could trigger a significant trend reversal.
Key Support and Resistance Zones on the Daily Chart
Chart:
Buy Perspective:
Entry Trigger: Breakout above the purple box at 21200.
Rationale: Rather than trading impulsively, a long entry is recommended based on the possibility of filling the gap if today’s high is broken.
Risk: The overall trend remains bearish.
Sell Perspective:
Entry Trigger:
Option 1: A break of the short-term ascending trendline, or
Option 2: A break below today’s low at 20943.
Rationale:
This signal indicates significant risk and suggests that the market is overheated—possibly nearing a bubble burst.
Risk:
Although the trend is bearish, entering a short position late in the move raises concerns about how far the price may fall. It is advisable to set targets based on major support levels.
Conclusion
The NASDAQ is currently in a converging state, and it seems best to trade only when clear breakout signals emerge, while staying on the sidelines in ambiguous zones.
For Buyers: Focus on breakouts above the key levels (21779 and 21812) for potential continuation of the uptrend.
For Sellers: Monitor for a break below the ascending trendline or 20943 to confirm a trend reversal.
Stay patient, watch key levels closely, and trade strategically. Happy trading, and let’s finish the week strong! 🚀
Today analysis for Nasdaq, Oil, and GoldNasdaq
The Nasdaq closed slightly higher with low volatility. As mentioned yesterday, the daily chart shows that the index is holding support at the 3-day moving average, while the MACD remains in an upward buy trend. However, resistance is evident along the upper trendline connecting previous highs.
Today, a pullback toward the 5-day moving average should be considered, and the Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) report will be a key catalyst in determining whether the uptrend continues.
On the 240-minute chart, both the MACD and Signal line remain above the zero line, suggesting a consolidation phase that could gradually lift moving averages before another bullish wave emerges. Overall, a buy-on-dip approach remains favorable, particularly if a pre-market pullback toward the 5-day MA occurs. However, given the potential for increased volatility from today's data release, risk management is crucial.
Crude Oil
Crude oil closed lower after facing resistance at the 3-day moving average. However, downside support remains strong, making further declines difficult, which favors buy-side positioning. Since oil has now tested the 3-day MA, today’s strategy should focus on selling near the 5-day MA if a rally occurs.
Both long and short positions should factor in weekly closing dynamics, as weekend geopolitical risks may lead to gap openings on Monday.
On the 240-minute chart, oil remains in a downward trend, but signs of base formation are emerging. The MACD is nearing a potential golden cross, so traders should watch closely for a momentum shift.
Additionally, geopolitical risks are increasing, with Trump tightening sanctions on Iran, adding to oil market volatility. Given these conditions, buying dips remains the preferred approach, but risk management is essential.
Gold
Gold closed lower, facing a sharp pullback after reaching the psychological level of 2900. The deep retracement suggests profit-taking at key resistance levels.
Despite this correction, the daily chart still maintains a buy trend, and as long as gold holds above the 10-day moving average on a closing basis, the overall bullish bias remains intact. However, given that the MACD is completing its third bullish wave, a consolidation phase is likely as the MACD and Signal line begin to narrow. For now, buyers should focus on entering at lower levels to optimize risk-reward.
On the 240-minute chart, a sell signal has emerged, leading to the current pullback. However, the MACD and Signal line are significantly below the zero line, meaning that despite the downtrend, buying interest could emerge on any further dips. This structure reduces the appeal of chasing short positions.
Today's Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) report is a major risk event, known for triggering extreme volatility in gold. As one of the most critical economic indicators for gold traders, managing exposure ahead of the release is crucial. Expect range-bound price action before the report, with a potential breakout afterward.
Stay disciplined and manage risk carefully, as today’s NFP release will drive market volatility. Wishing you a successful trading day! 🚀
■Trading Strategies for Today
Nasdaq - Bullish Market
-Buy Levels: 21820 / 21750 / 21710 / 21625 / 21510
-Sell Levels: 21870 / 21930 / 22010 / 22070 / 22135
Crude Oil - Range-bound Market
-Buy Levels: 70.20 / 69.80 / 69.20 / 68.30
-Sell Levels: 71.30 / 71.80 / 72.20 / 72.70
GOLD - Bullish Market
-Buy Levels: 2876 / 2871 / 2862 / 2855
-Sell Levels: 2885 / 2892 / 2896 / 2902
These strategies apply only during pre-market hours. Profit-taking and stop-loss levels are as follows: Nasdaq: 15 points, Oil and Gold: 20 ticks.
If you liked this analysis, please follow me and give it a boost!
NAS 100 Futures - ShortDecelerating inflation and decelerating growth for February indicates deflationary pressures in play. February could potentially see a nice correction or maybe a deep and hard one. Either way, the fundamentals as well as the volatility adjusted price range both indicate it is time to be cautious and mind your risk management practices. In any case the technicals on lower time frames have begun to weaken roll over and slow. Short for now.
MNQ!/NQ1! Day Trade Plan for 02/05/25MNQ!/NQ1! Day Trade Plan for 02/05/25
📈21750-21809 ; 21682-21690, 21902-21914
📉21245-21370 ; 21475-21465, 21255-21245
Like and share for more daily ES/NQ levels 🤓📈📉🎯💰
(💎: IF THERE IS NOT MUCH VOLATILITY; FOCUS ON ZONES VERSES INDIVIDUAL PRICE LEVELS)
*These levels are derived from comprehensive backtesting and research, demonstrating over 90% accuracy. This statistical foundation suggests that price movements are likely to exceed initial estimates.*
