MNQ1! trade ideas
NQ Short (02-18-25)NAZ took road to upper Target of my (2/10/25) Post. I am looking Short and may be early since we have a Holiday (O/N) session which usually leads to low volume Long only air balloon rides. Chart for this week: Shaded Zone (SZ) is Gap Fill (December contract change) with yellow dash as mid level. NAZ will need to get above SZ, ML SZ and mid level of long term channel (grey dash). TLX's at 22,300-50 and below at 22,037 (may be range for break out). White dash arrow is Long target by month end and Yellow dash arrow is Short target by month end. NAZ did get above the sideways range that started in early November, 2024. The prior 4 times this has happened, the NAZ fell in and dropped nearly 1,000 points each time. Three of these drops moved the distance in a few hours to a few days. Long play is fine this week, should we see Push/Pull jerky sketchy price action, look Short. Prior 3-4 month narrow sideways PA has been setting up a big move, not sure on direction but thinking Short.
Nasdaq Complex Combination Correction An Elliott Wave combination correction is a complex corrective pattern in Elliott Wave Theory, typically formed when simpler corrective patterns combine to create a larger, more intricate structure. It consists of two or three corrective waves labeled W, X, Y.
Combination corrections aim to extend and complicate the corrective phase, often seen in sideways or consolidative price action. They provide a way for markets to consume time and create balance before resuming the primary trend.
Key Characteristics:
The larger trend of the correction labelled as W,X,Y consists of 3 corrective wave structures being 2 Zig Zags, and and ending symmetrical triangle labeled A,B,C,D,E.
Each major corrective structure ends with a 3 wave impulse move to the downside, followed by a 2 wave corrective structure before resuming the trend.
You can see more detail on EW theory related to elliot wave combination structures on the website: elliottwave.com/waveopedia/combinations/
What catches my attention for this up coming week is a potential end to the corrective structure on the NQ (Nasdaq Futures), as the compression in price may see a final bounce at "E" for the breakout back towards the ATH.
Only time will tell
NQ - Feb 20th FrameworkWednesday failed to expand through Tuesday range.
Weekly range currently in a consolidation.
Consolidation protocol active.
I am neutral on price until a sweep on the external range. Once a sweep occurs, I will hunt the 15m cisd and target the opposing liquidity. This will confirm the weekly profile & the intraday profile. Need the alignment for a high probability trade.
Anything internal is lower probability for my model. Price MUST take external liquidity.
Consolidation Reversal weekly profile likely. Mon - Wed in a range, Thursday raids external range then reverses, Friday offers continuation to opposing liquidity.
MNQ!/NQ1! Day Trade Plan for 02/21/2025MNQ!/NQ1! Day Trade Plan for 02/21/2025
๐22225, 22275, 22320
๐22130, 22083.5, 22036
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*These levels are derived from comprehensive backtesting and research and a quantitative system demonstrating high accuracy. This statistical foundation suggests that price movements are likely to exceed initial estimates.*
MNQ!/NQ1! Day Trade Plan for 02/20/2025MNQ!/NQ1! Day Trade Plan for 02/20/2025
๐22273.5, 22320
๐22130, 22083.5
Like and share for more daily ES/NQ levels ๐ค๐๐๐ฏ๐ฐ
*These levels are derived from comprehensive backtesting and research and a quantitative system demonstrating high accuracy. This statistical foundation suggests that price movements are likely to exceed initial estimates.*
NASDAQ Future long: after resitance broken, new support formed Current Analysis: Nasdaq futures are currently facing a critical support at 22100
I see the chance of a Bullish rebound:
Support Strength: This support was a resistance in past weeks, then it was broken on Feb 14th and act as support in last 3 days.
Additionally, from Dec. 17th to February 12th, price formed a triangle that was broken up on Feb.13th.
Expected Movement: If the price successfully breaks above 22100, I expect it to rally towards the $22400 area.
Action Plan:
Entry Point: entered long with limit order at 22100
Target: Set a target in the $22425 (high of December 17th)
Stop Loss: Place a stop loss at 21937.75, below minimum of Feb.20th and with Risk/Reward Ratio of 2.
Today analysis for Nasdaq, Oil, and GoldNasdaq
The Nasdaq closed lower as Walmartโs earnings report raised concerns about slowing consumer demand. Today marks the weekly close, and since the weekly chart has not yet confirmed a buy signal, any downward movement in the MACD could increase the likelihood of further declines.
On the daily chart, the 10-day moving average is acting as support, aligning with the upper boundary of the February range. The MACD remains in a buy signal, but market flows are mixed, suggesting that choppy price action with alternating bullish and bearish candles could persist.
Until a strong breakout candle decisively clears previous highs, it is safer to treat the current market as range-bound. While the bullish bias remains, traders should monitor whether the daily MACD generates a sell signal, which could shift momentum in favor of sellers.
On the 240-minute chart, the MACD is declining sharply, indicating that buying pressure is weak. However, since the signal line is still above the zero line, a rebound attempt could emerge between 21,800 and 21,900. If the gap between the MACD and the signal line continues to widen, traders should avoid chasing long positions, even if a short-term bounce occurs.
Crude Oil
Crude oil closed higher, finding support near the $71 level. A buy signal has appeared on the daily chart, though it is not yet confirmed. The MACD and signal line have formed a golden cross, but todayโs daily close will likely determine whether the buy signal holds.
If the buy signal remains valid, oil could be forming a double-bottom pattern, confirming a base before moving higher. However, given weekend geopolitical risks, holding positions over the weekend (overweekend exposure) should be approached with caution.
On the 240-minute chart, the MACD has pulled back toward the signal line before resuming an upward move, forming a wave 3 buying pattern. Since further upside momentum is possible, traders should focus on buying dips rather than chasing breakouts.
Gold
Gold closed higher after breaking above its previous high. On the daily chart, the MACD and signal line are closely aligned, meaning that if gold prints a bearish candle and breaks below the 10-day moving average, a bearish crossover (death cross) is likely.
Since the MACD and signal line are still at elevated levels above the zero line, any selloff is likely to be met with buying interest, keeping the market range-bound. However, if gold breaks below the lower boundary of the current range, a sharp sell-off could occur, making stop-loss management crucial for long positions.
On the 240-minute chart, gold has briefly broken above a triple-top formation before pulling back, forming a whipsaw pattern. This suggests that a further drop is likely.
If the MACD on the 240-minute chart crosses below the signal line, it could mark the start of a trend reversal, making this a key technical level to watch.
Overall, gold remains in a range-bound environment, but selling at highs is currently more favorable. If buying at support, stop-loss management is essential.
As we close out the weekly session, traders should focus on risk management and ensure safe trading strategies. Take the weekend to rest, recharge, and maintain a healthy balance between trading and personal life. Wishing you a successful trading day and a great weekend!
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NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 2/21/2025 SessionCME_MINI:NQH2025
- PR High: 22174.50
- PR Low: 22123.25
- NZ Spread: 114.75
Key scheduled economic events:
09:45 | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
- S&P Global Services PMI
10:00 | Existing Home Sales
Quick peak below previous daily lows
- Now advertising rotation above 22200
Session Open Stats (As of 12:55 AM 2/21)
- Weekend Gap: N/A
- Gap 10/30/23 +0.47%
- Session Open ATR: 331.32
- Volume: 19K
- Open Int: 294K
- Trend Grade: Bull
- From BA ATH: -1.4% (Rounded)
Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges)
- Long: 22667
- Mid: 21525
- Short: 19814
Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions.
BA: Back Adjusted
BuZ/BeZ: Bull Zone / Bear Zone
NZ: Neutral Zone
mnq(daily-4h-1h)future market 21/02/2025daily market is up
4h market in down trend or bullish rang(so so)
1 h down
the wind behind the 1h in 4h not strong and may be changed but daily up trend is intact
we can rely on it .
one demand zone in 1h that is nested in daily demand is so strong has more than 8 confirmation and qqq stock and one equity in future respond to this zone for this trend, i wrote on the zone we can buy it 1-1 on this zone.
after opening the market look at thepower of market to other equity if its strong to them buy it.
Nasdaq (March 2025) - Brass Tax #S1E10In episode 10, I share how challenging price has been over the past couple of days but also, what you can do in order alleviate the need to feel like you must enter the market.
I go over price projections covered in Episode 9, how it played out in Thursday and what could be done better.
With one more day left this week and 13 high impact news events, I am anticipating high levels of volatility
2025-02-20 - priceactiontds - daily update - nasdaqGood Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: Interesting day ahead of us. Selling was strong but bulls retraced 70% of it already. If bears come around again and keep this a lower high below 22230, it would show some strength and we could expect another test of 22000. The daily chart looks much more bullish than bearish. Big tails below bars and all bars closing above their mid-point. We have also touched the bull trend line above the daily 20ema. If anything I have a long bias but due to Opex I tend to lean neutral for tomorrow.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 22000 - 22500
bull case: Another dip another bad follow-through. Bulls buy it all and they have all the arguments on their side. They bought where they had to and we now have a decent two-legged pull-back to the bull trend line. Market is free to melt higher but tomorrow is opex and I fare best when I lean neutral on those days and trade less.
Invalidation is below 21900.
bear case: Bears can generate enough selling pressure to go down hard but as soon as the momentum is gone, so are the bears and market just reverses. I doubt bears can keep this a lower high and continue inside the bear channel. If they do, a weekly close below 22k would be amazing for them. That is the only target I have for them for tomorrow because I canโt imagine this going below 21900. Above 22200 bears just have to cover and we could accelerate upwards.
Invalidation is above 22230.
short term: Neutral. No bigger opinion on who wins this tomorrow. Both have reasonable arguments and we are inside the big bull channel and now also inside a bear channel. I wait for strong momentum again.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-02-16: Bulls are on their way of making a new ath again. So no bearish thoughts until market character changes dramatically again. I can see this going up to 23000 but not beyond. No bigger opinion on a medium-term outlook for this.
trade of the day: Buying 22k. Was close enough to the bull trend line, daily 20ema and bears found no acceptance below it.