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MNQ1! trade ideas

Careful Trusting "News" | Fake News TradingOn Monday, April 7th, 2025 amidst incredible market volatility, you'd expect your most trusted news outlet to report on-the-minute news. But most importantly, accurate news . With the markets down nearly 20% in ~4 trading days, every piece of information matters. But with the age of fast (social) media, news outlets will do anything possible to be the first to report. Even .... posting fake news. The way this works is they get news that's "probably true", they post it, then it's verified to be true. This may work often for them and when it doesn't, nobody really cares. But when you're talking about times of volatility unseen since COVID, all this nonsense gets exposed. So - at roughly 10:10 AM EST, CNBC reported that there will be a "90-day pause on tariffs". A ground-breaking report that likely caused John Doe to buy $10M in NASDAQ:NVDA calls dated end of July because that's a no-brainer right? It surely cannot be false since CNBC is his go-to trusted news-source and there is just NO WAY that they would ever post any news without being 100% true and verified. ESPECIALLY news about TARIFFS -- the talk of the town (psh, the world actually) at the moment. 90 day pause? That's not something you report lightly. You know the ripple effect that'll have on the markets. Result of that news report? The markets (e.g. CME_MINI:NQ1! ) jumped 6.60% in under 10 minutes. Jane Doe likely saw that jump, looked at that news, and rebought her shares that she sold at the bottom earlier this morning. Surely that news cannot be fake. It's a 90-day tariff pause. That's huge. Surely the White House will see "Yeah baby! We take credit for that". Nope, at roughly 10:18 AM EST, the same CNBC reported that, "the 90-day pause on tariffs was fake news according to the White House". Results? Market right back down -6.5% in 20 minutes. Suppose you FOMO'd into AMEX:SPY NASDAQ:QQQ calls.. well, you lost almost everything depending on the strike and date. In this market, manage your RISK and always hedge. Don't forget to thank CNBC, your most trusted news-source for that capital gain loss. Welcome to trading in 2025. The age of report-first, verify-later. Welcome home. Be careful listening to the news and take everything they say with a grain of salt. And as always, don't chase the news. KD out.
CME_MINI:NQ1!Education
by kingdips
13
NQ volatility likely to persist until retest of 13k buy zonechart shows it all...expect more volatility this month, likely a retest of 61.8 fib level at 15k & 78.6 fib levels (based on lows from 2023) near 13k before we finally run to the highs again into 2026! tariffs have similar impact as rate hikes...overall will be digested by markets just fine & we'll head back to the highs as fed sees more freedom to cut given those effects...very incentivized to prevent a "hard landing" economically without also boosting inflation too much, so this is all actually a good thing if you can see it :)
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by DaveTradesLive
Nasdaq Enters Correction Territory Do we go Deeper Monthly analysis done on the NQ with the ambition to connect with current price activity and gauge a deeper technical understanding on if this is just the start of a bigger correction for the year ahead . Tools used in this video Standard Fib , TR Pocket , CVWAP/ PVWAP Incorporating PVWAP and CVWAP into trading strategies allows for a more nuanced understanding of market dynamics used to assess trading performance and market trends. Date and price range and trend line . Some research below regarding the previous correction that I reference the technicals to in the video . In November 2021, the Nasdaq reached record highs However, concerns over rising inflation, potential interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, and supply chain disruptions led to increased market volatility. These factors contributed to a correction in the Nasdaq, with the index experiencing notable declines as investors reassessed valuations, particularly in high-growth technology stocks. VS Today March 2025 Correction: As of March 2025, the Nasdaq Composite has faced another significant correction. On March 10, 2025, the index plummeted by 4%, shedding 728 points, marking its third-worst point loss ever, with only earlier losses during the COVID-19 pandemic surpassing this. This downturn has been attributed to several factors: Economic Policies: President Trump's announcement of increased tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China has unsettled markets, raising fears of a potential recession Inflation Concerns: Investors are closely monitoring upcoming consumer-price index (CPI) reports to gauge inflation trends, as higher-than-expected inflation could hinder the Federal Reserve's ability to lower interest rates, exacerbating stock market declines Sector-Specific Declines: Major technology companies, including Tesla, have experienced significant stock price declines, contributing to the overall downturn in the Nasdaq Comparison of the Two Corrections: Catalysts: The November 2021 correction was primarily driven by concerns over rising inflation and potential interest rate hikes. In contrast, the March 2025 correction has been influenced by geopolitical factors, including new tariff announcements, and ongoing inflation concerns. Magnitude: While both corrections were significant, the March 2025 correction has been more severe in terms of single-day point losses. The 4% drop on March 10, 2025, resulted in a loss of 728 points, marking it as one of the most substantial declines in the index's history. Investor Sentiment: Both periods saw increased market volatility and a shift towards risk aversion. However, the recent correction has been accompanied by heightened fears of a potential recession, partly due to inconsistent government messaging regarding economic prospects. In summary, while both corrections were driven by concerns over inflation and economic policies, the March 2025 correction has been more pronounced, with additional factors such as new tariffs and recession fears playing a significant role.
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by SJTRADESFUTURES
2
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 4/7/2025 SessionCME_MINI:NQM2025 - PR High: 17100.00 - PR Low: 16550.00 - NZ Spread: 1231.0 ⚠ No key scheduled economic events AMP margins remain increased due to tariff news - Continue high volatility value decline, 2.45% weekend gap - Weekend gap fills above 17417 - Overall sentiment: anxiously hesitant in hopes of a nearby bottom Session Open Stats (As of 12:15 AM 4/7) - Session Open ATR: 593.15 - Volume: 131K - Open Int: 276K - Trend Grade: Bear - From BA ATH: -25.8% (Rounded) Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges) - Long: 20954 - Mid: 19246 - Short: 16963 Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions. BA: Back Adjusted BuZ/BeZ: Bull Zone / Bear Zone NZ: Neutral Zone
CME_MINI:NQM2025
by mv3trader5
When will NASDAQ stop melting? You can't say I didn't warn you!I hate to say I told you but I warned about this crash at my analysis back at September 2024 for NQ1! (you can see it at related ideas below), anticipating market moves based on structure well before the narrative around election and tariffs even began circulating. We often see markets engineer these kinds of dramatic dives below obvious lows. This projection towards the 4.0-5.0 zone looks characteristic of such a liquidity hunt, designed to clear out sell-side stops and shake out traders before a potential major move higher – a dynamic not unlike what we anticipated previously. While the projected sharp drop on NQ1! below key levels like the Monthly Order Block near 3.0 and the AG (actual gap) level near 3.5 might look aggressively bearish, I'm viewing this as a potential setup for a significant buy opportunity. My attention is focused on that "Possible reversal level 1" between 4.0 and 5.0. If price stabilizes and shows rejection signs within this zone, it could signal the start of a powerful rally, potentially targeting levels back up towards the 1.75 area or even revisiting prior highs. Remember, these market structure plays can take time to fully develop, just as previous setups did. We could see NQ consolidate or even briefly dip lower within that 4.0-5.0 zone before the anticipated upward reversal truly gains traction. Thanks for reading, boost and follow to stay liquid and not become liquidity. Wish you safe and informed trading decisions. ___________ CME_MINI:NQ1! TVC:VIX
CME_MINI:NQ1!Long
by TradeConfirmed
1
#202514 - priceactiontds - weekly update - nasdaq e-mini futures Good Evening and I hope you are well. comment: W3 has likely concluded and I expect the same price action as for W2. Market is respecting technicals precisely. Look at the chart and the obvious numbers and lines. We can always do an over- or undershoot but for now I don’t think looking for shorts after two days of crashing make any sense. current market cycle: strong bear trend key levels: 16000 - 19600 bull case: Bulls still running for the exits but we have fallen too much too fast and we are getting into value territory for bigger players to buy the dip. Almost nothing is ever as bad as these extreme market reactions want to trap you into. Not to the downside and certainly not to the upside but to the upside everyone is busy pounding their chest because they are such a genius for making money in a bull market. Bulls want a squeeze up to 19000, that’s about it. Bear trend line around 18800-19000 will most likely get hit over the next 2 weeks. Invalidation is below 17000. bear case: Same reasoning as for dax. Bears want the big bull trend line around 16500 but they won’t get there in a straight line. W4 is likely around the corner. If we stay below 18800, that would once again leave another gap open and be another show of big strength by the bears. Invalidation is above 19100. short term: W3 has likely concluded, shorting below 18000 is really really not a good trade unless it’s a momentum scalp. Looking to scalp some longs on the squeeze up. medium-long term - Update from 2024-03-16: My most bearish target for 2025 was 17500ish, given in my year-end special. Clear W1 of this bear trend. Market now has to close below 19000 to confirm W3. Depending on how deep W3 goes, W5 will either reach only around 17500 or the bull trend line around 16000. current swing trade: None chart update: Made the bear trend clear and my expectation for W4 and W5. As always, it’s a guess.
CME_MINI:MNQ1!
by priceactiontds
Market Update: NASDAQ 100 Analysis📈 The NASDAQ 100 is currently trading at 18,075.00, which represents a -22.6% decline from the all-time high of 22,425.75 . This marks a significant drop from its peak, entering into what could be classified as a bear market by traditional standards. 📊The previous decline from the high of 16,800.00 in November 2021 saw a decline of 37.47% , eventually bottoming out at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level (10,514.25), from which it staged a significant recovery to reach the all-time high of 22,425.75. 📊Current Demand Zones & Fibonacci Levels: These zones represent potential reversal areas where buyers could regain control. The Fibonacci retracement levels align well with historical price action, reinforcing their significance as support zones. DZ-1 (17,539.00-16,334.85): Approximately the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the recent bull rally DZ-2 (16,334.85-15,384.25): Approximately the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement - Historically a strong support level DZ-3 (15,384.25-14,557.00): Critical structural level with prior buyer interest DZ-4 (14,557.00-14,140.25): Deep support level - key psychological zone 📈 Recovery Potential To regain the all-time high of 22,425.7 5, the market would need to achieve the following percentage gains from each demand zone: From DZ-1 (Top: 17,539.00, Base: 16,334.85): 📈 +37.3% to all-time high From DZ-2 (Top: 16,334.85, Base: 15,384.25): 📈 +45.8% to all-time high From DZ-3 (Top: 15,384.25, Base: 14,557.00): 📈 +54.0% to all-time high From DZ-4 (Top: 14,557.00, Base: 14,140.25): 📈 +58.6% to all-time high The DZ-2 to DZ-3 range provides the most likely region for a significant reversal based on confluence between historical support levels and Fibonacci retracements. While DZ-4 aligns with the 37% historical decline. 🔑 Key Takeaways The NASDAQ 100 s is in a significant correction phase, down -22.6% from its peak. Price is approaching critical Demand/support zones (DZ-1 to DZ-4), which may act as reversal points. A return to all-time highs would require substantial gains, particularly if the market reaches the deeper demand zones. Investors should closely monitor price action around the DZ-2 to DZ-3 range (15,384.25 - 14,557.00) for signs of a potential reversal. Additionally, staying updated on developments related to the new tariffs is essential, as they may heavily influence market dynamics in the coming months.
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by MESHANL
Nasdaq Approaches Bear Territory Amid Escalating Trade TensionsMarket Decline: The Nasdaq Composite has fallen 20% from its December record high, approaching bear market territory. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average have also experienced significant drops, marking their steepest weekly declines since March 2020. ​ Trade Tensions: The downturn is largely attributed to escalating trade tensions. The U.S. imposed a 10% tariff on most imports, prompting China to retaliate with a 34% tariff on all U.S. goods, effective April 10. This escalation has heightened fears of a global trade war. Recession Concerns: In response to these developments, J.P. Morgan has increased the probability of a global recession to 60%, up from 40% previously. ​ Market Movements: Support Levels and Potential Retracement: The Nasdaq's 20% decline suggests it's testing critical support levels. While technical analysis might indicate a potential for a short-term retracement or consolidation at these levels, the prevailing market sentiment, driven by ongoing trade disputes and recession fears, could limit any substantial recovery.​ Outlook: Given the current geopolitical and economic climate, a continued downward trend is plausible. However, markets are inherently volatile, and any developments in trade negotiations or economic policies could influence future movements.​ Disclaimer: Please remember that market predictions are speculative. It's essential to conduct thorough research and consult with financial advisors before making investment decisions.
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by ChainAssetsCapital
2022 NQ Bear Market Fractal scenarios Index has declined more than 20% and we've failed RSI 40 on weekly, indicating a bear market has started. Best case scenario, I could see it bottoming around 16,666/15000 and recovering very quickly with a blow-off top +100% in less than a year, similar to 2000, topping around 30k-33k. Bear markets typically last 3M-3Y, with most ending in a year or less. This one topped mid Q1, so mid Q2, Mid-May, might be a great time to buy, if only for a few weeks. Bottoming there after 3M would fit close to orange pattern, or stretch it 3M to bottom mid Q3, October. Green pattern is the only 1:1 with 2022 top to present, with a bottom around 1Yr and then blue and green are steeper variation bottoming a little later, mid 3Y. Pink is more of a 2000 top with 3Y bear market, but would just be a recession. Red is worst case scenario; great depression followed by rapid hyperinflation that sends markets screaming with exponential gains just to outrun inflation. You can stretch the scales on idea to zoom in and out and see the patterns better, or try drawing your own. Linked are my ideas from 2022 top. There is more confirming TA, but removed for clarity on an already busy chart.
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by Nicklaus68
Nasdaq futures , printed a cash signal on close of march candle.So I am cash in my trading accounts with exception of my SPY price action trading which works in any condition . The market Nasdaq futures market has closed under the monthly 20 period ema , I have tested the Dow jones on this logic to 1897 for over 100 years of results and when the market makes closes below I go to cash and wait for a H2 monthly close to get back in . I personally think that this is a very easy way to trade as there is very little user interference its very black and white and if you traded this way on Dow jones from 1987 to now it would have even outperformed buy and hold from 1897 to 2015 (and maybe we will be outperforming soon again too with what the market seems to be threatening ). The 2X Nasdaq , QLD which from 2023s buy signal to end of last months cash signal yielded 78% return. ( that's what my strat uses instead of QQQ for these signals , note however that TQQQ has too much decay to work well imo) It's not hard to make money this way , but there is lots of inaction and us humans don't do so well with that . In any case we have a cash signal and now the game is to wait .... possibly quite a while . Also the Dow , SPY , QQQ and MES , have not quite yet printed sell cash signals so you could argue that they should do this before going to cash but they are all below their sell signals and the market is flashing pretty notable warning signals , So I am cash . I do plan on continuing my price action trades when I have time it can work in all markets but that is a tiny account in comparison to my monthly signals capital . I mostly do it for fun and experience building and often don't have the time . Take care and good luck out there .
CME_MINI:MNQ1!
by NAK1987