ADR + 1/3AMR- = Strong LevelGorgeous algorithmic long based on these incredible tool!
ADR + 1/3AMR- was reversal level and I was targeting 1/3ADR+
MNQ1! trade ideas
UpdatedLooks like it will not take buyside liquidity and is heading straight for the weekly low. After that I think it will reverse and we will be bullish.
We are back.We are back. That's the analysis for today. I did a little bit of research over the weekend, and I think more things will change and we will have much more accurate analysis. We have no news that may affect the market. I am waiting for it to take buyside liquiditiy, break the structure and look for a sell entry up to the red line that represents the weekly low. From there I think it will reverse and we will be bullish this week. I will keep you updated in case anything changes.
NQ1! Historical Fall and Important LevelsThe price fluctuated by more than 5% prior to the New York session, an atypical occurrence that suggests increased risk for the week ahead.
Volatility exceeding 130 should be regarded as a cautionary signal.
It may be prudent to reduce trading risks this week
This significant drop could be due to concerns that if the USA election results in a Trump victory, the USA might stop protecting Taiwan, which could cause major issues in semiconductor production.
Important liquidity levels given in the chart.
Ask any questions you might have in the comments and please boost if the idea helped you!
$NQU Bidenomics kicking in$NQU is headed back to 2023 levels as we get closer to election day. Trump either wins or we get Hoovervilles.
ES, NQ, RTY, BTC bull trap? Interesting comparison between the 4 mentioned above. All broke the upper trendline and lost it, and are now dropping into oblivion. I hope for everyone's sake this is short lived, but I am bearish in the mid term. Still expecting a mega short squeeze to throw everyone off and get FOMO buyers back in. There will be plenty especially after they capitulate and eagerly want to make their gains back. Unfortunately it is not that easy. Good luck and be careful trading out there.
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 8/5/2024 SessionCME_MINI:NQU2024
- PR High: 18390.00
- PR Low: 18269.25
- NZ Spread: 270.0
Key scheduled economic events
09:45 | S&P Global Services PMI
10:00 | ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
- ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices
Sustaining high volatility with wide weekend gap
- Weekend gap down remains unfilled
- Value deline ~300 points below Friday's low
Evening Stats (As of 10:55 PM 8/4)
- Weekend Gap: -0.66% (open > 18515)
- Session Gap 7/24: -0.32% (open > 19946)
- Gap 10/30/23 +0.47% (open < 14272)
- Session Open ATR: 438.33
- Volume: 66K
- Open Int: 244K
- Trend Grade: Bull
- From BA ATH: -13.6% (Rounded)
Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges)
- Long: 20954
- Mid: 19814
- Short: 17533
Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions.
BA: Back Adjusted
BuZ/BeZ: Bull Zone / Bear Zone
NZ: Neutral Zone
Weekly Analysis: NASDAQ at a CrossroadsNASDAQ
The NASDAQ closed at 18,556. We will be bullish above this area or bearish below this area. At this discounted price, where will it go? Not many fundamentals this week.
To provide a thorough analysis of the NASDAQ for this week, we need to consider several technical and market sentiment factors, given the lack of major fundamental news.
NQ weekly profile - week 1, AugustWeekly Profile : Seek & Destroy Bearish Friday
HOTW - Thurs
LOTW - Fri
News of the week: FOMC, NFP, earnings
NQ - Is A Short-Term Rally Prominent? Similar to ES, NQ has witnessed a shift in market structure within 2 days of trading within this month, running below July's monthly lows into April's order block.
Macro Sellside liquidity located @ $17388.75 would be a push for me to target as of now as there is intra-day arrays in-between current price action and monthly lows.
Price action reacted perfectly from the weekly volume imbalance @ $18,411.50 - 18,354.50 as well as the liquidity pool below 28th May weekly down close candle's low which gives me the indication business has been temporarily completed.
$18,861.75 rejection block is where i have my scopes tuned to but i am not opposed to a continuation to the downside as long as $18,354.50 is respected on the daily timeframe.
Nasdaq Weekend Pre MarketIt's the weekend. I like to go out to my larger charts and clean off the entire chart and start analyzing the instrument for next weeks trading.
We know that price is going to move up or down from where it currently is located, so we just need to make up a game plan to trade it..
Looking out at the 4 hour, 1 hour, and 15 minute charts for our trend and target analysis. Then dialing it down to the 3 minute or 15 minute to look for an entry!
NQ - Looks like trend changing, this is why in my mind. 0. Big tech insider sells start correction (Juli)
1. August is a weak month
2. -BRK done (W) ( time to use IPDA lookback :-) )
3. Looking for reverse inside "not used!" D BISI
4. Until now - Bias turn to bearish for me .
What contradicts this thesis?
-The ICT deviation to go SHORT (Premium Area) is -FVG & D SIBI , but the entry 0.62 Level don not matched w. premium of this -FVG/SIBI (When you measure) -> that is suspect ?!
-This Short Entry would be in a D SIBI if reversal or Juda swing is done. 👁️ first!
Nasdaq Futures Basis - Indication of Significant RecessionThe NQ1!-NDX metric produces a consistent “sawtooth-like” pattern in the lead up to major financial recessions.
The metric tracks the difference in the next expiring NDX futures contract on the CME and the NDX index itself. This paints a picture of how the futures market sentiment differs from the actual market.
Convergence towards zero nearing the futures contract expiry is expected as they begin to represent the same market in that sense. However, this pattern we see of convergence to zero after the basis opens very high is unprecedented and intriguing at worst. There are very interesting discussions relating to this metric:
1. Inflation and interest rate expectations are creating an environment of high volatility which has been reflected in the VIX recently. This could explain the large basis on contract openings.
2. M2 has begun to rise which has seen a normalisation in the T10Y02Y yield curve. Monetary policy may become more dovish in the next year which although a bullish signal, is reflective of ever increasing public and private debt levels. Heightened levels of debt and high volatility are a major risk.
3. The fact that the basis is positive on open and has been trending upwards reflects the futures market’s positive sentiment on the NDX moving forward. Although the market has dropped over -10%, it is not yet intuitively signalling expectations of continued falls as the basis has not fallen below zero.
If the market was sure of a recession, it would almost never happen. However, most market movements are increasingly dictated by debt instead of cash, reflecting increasing risk over time and a degradation in the ability of market information to reflect reality and real valuations. Price signals are no longer intuitive reflections of their underlying assets when debt is invested in them. This could explain the increasing deviation from zero in the basis metric on the NDX as the years pass by.
NASDAQ FUTURES Stock Chart Fibonacci Analysis 080224Trading Idea
1) Find a FIBO slingshot
2) Check FIBO 61.80% level
3) Entry Point > 18414/61.80%
Chart time frame : C
A) 15 min(1W-3M)
B) 1 hr(3M-6M)
C) 4 hr(6M-1year)
D) 1 day(1-3years)
Stock progress : C
A) Keep rising over 61.80% resistance
B) 61.80% resistance
C) Hit the Support
D) Hit the top
Stocks rise as they rise from support and fall from resistance. Our goal is to find a low support point and enter. It can be referred to as buying at the pullback point. The pullback point can be found with a Fibonacci extension of 61.80%. This is a step to find entry level. 1) Find a triangle (Fibonacci Speed Fan Line) that connects the high (resistance) and low (support) points of the stock in progress, where it is continuously expressed as a Slingshot, 2) and create a Fibonacci extension level for the first rising wave from the start point of slingshot pattern.
When the current price goes over 61.80% level , that can be a good entry point, especially if the SMA 100 and 200 curves are gathered together at 61.80%, it is a very good entry point.
As a great help, tradingview provide these Fibonacci speed fan lines and extension levels with ease. So if you use the Fibonacci fan line, the extension level, and the SMA 100/200 curve well, you can find an entry point for the stock market. At least you have to enter at this low point to avoid trading failure, and if you are skilled at entering this low point, with fibonacci6180 technique, your reading skill to chart will be greatly improved.
If you want to do day trading, please set the time frame to 5 minutes or 15 minutes, and you will see many of the low point of rising stocks.
If want to prefer long term range trading, you can set the time frame to 1 hr or 1 day.
BEAR PULL BACK THEN BACK TO BUSSINESSRecently seen a change in state of delivery on multiple time frames creating a market structure shift (lower low to higher high), this can possibly show institutional sponsorship and change in order flow. If we draw a fib retracement from the range created on the Daily chart after MSS, we can see a buyside inefficiency in the premium of the range which is what I expect NQ could pull back into past the two most recent 4HR highs. Zooming into the Current lows on ES and NQ we can see 5min SMT divergence adding conviction to the trade. Want to start to see bullish order flow being respected putting stop at the most recent 5min low which should be protected if the draw on liquidity is correct.
20240802 NQI anticipate more downside to raid w ss and into w bisi CE level. => after that reversal to the upside with TGIF narrative and DOL. Asymmetry with DXY (dropping down with Stocks) makes things very risky. I would like to see the signs of the upside reversal first. Meanwhile price is moving down but I consider that to be a Judas swing.
My View on NASDAQ 100 E-MINI FUTURES Hello,
We've identified a huge current opportunity to Sell NASDAQ 100 E-MINI FUTURES with a high probability in the Weekly chart.
The target is $16,330 within a few weeks.
Ibrouri
Non-Farm Employment ChangeToday we are bearish. We have Non-Farm Employment Change at 08:30. Watch out as this is a pretty important news and can spoil the whole market. Stay tuned and I hope you're profitable. I'll let you know if anything changes. I will keep you informed.
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 8/2/2024 SessionCME_MINI:NQU2024
- PR High: 18979.50
- PR Low: 18841.75
- NZ Spread: 308.5
Key scheduled economic events
08:30 | Average Hourly Earnings
- Nonfarm Payrolls
- Unemployment Rate
AMP temporary margin increase for expected high volatility
Swing back to new weekly low, tapping 18700 inventory
Evening Stats (As of 10:35 PM 8/1)
- Weekend Gap: N/A
- Session Gap 7/24: -0.32% (open > 19946)
- Gap 10/30/23 +0.47% (open < 14272)
- Session Open ATR: 416.35
- Volume: 43K
- Open Int: 242K
- Trend Grade: Bull
- From BA ATH: -10.6% (Rounded)
Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges)
- Long: 20954
- Mid: 19814
- Short: 18675
Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions.
BA: Back Adjusted
BuZ/BeZ: Bull Zone / Bear Zone
NZ: Neutral Zone
Nasdaq HTF Directional Bias/Narrative (Big Fat Drop Incoming)Minimum it's going to start reaching down into the 1600s. All time frames are Bearish. Monthly Is Bearish, Weekly, Daily, 4H. Honestly wouldn't be surprised if this went much lower, but all I need is 1600's.
My main reasoning for this: Every time frame is Bearish. Can't really describe the other reasoning, it's just based mostly off of repeating patterns in the Market, seen the same thing hundreds of times, additionally it'll eventually want to retrace deep into a Discounted price, below Equilibrium (First Red Line). Pretty obvious, if I were able to control price, I would want price to drop into a Discount before entering longs. Why get in at a terrible expensive price when you can get in cheap.
There's only a few Scenarios that can possibly play out: it rallies and creates a New ATH before reaching into my desired level, meaning it would need to retrace at some price where it's currently near. This is Unlikely at least at this very moment.
It won't consolidate here. So that rules out that scenario. Market Moves from Expansion -> Retracement -> Expansion. Not Expansion ->Consolidation ->Expansion.
Last Scenario: What I'm anticipating. This is the Reversal, this is the drop. We got the Expansion lower with solid displacement which shows Smart Moneys Participation. Meaning if Smart money Got in at the ATH, they need a counterparty (Sell Stops) to offset distribute their position, first Major Objective being 17,374. This will be my Main Objective, the reasoning is: it can go a bit lower, Targeting the Monthly Inefficiency right below that, below Equilibrium. Additionally, right below that low there's also -2 & -2.5 Standard Deviation Projection.
NQ Trend BounceSo far NQ has had a nice bounce right on the major trendline dating back to 2023. We have a large lower wick on the daily candle, so far it is up over 300 points off the lows from today. Tt was looking a little hairy intraday for a bit there, but bulls seem to have saved it for now. I'm not convinced this bounce will last yet, but looking good for bulls for now. We have a lot of action this week left to go.
For now, it looks like a critical hold for bulls, which could lead to a bounce all the way back up to 20k and it may keep going after that. That's a long way off, we'll see how FOMC and the rest of the mega cap earnings go. This is important to watch, if it does break that can be the difference between this recent sell off being a pullback that ends here versus a major correction and potential bear market.
