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MNQ1! trade ideas

Week of August 4- NQ/YM//VIX/CL/10yrWhat a great fresh week of selling we just had! Last week I was looking for a slight bounce in NQ before running to our 18.5k target area - but they wanted to run is down there faster. We have been writing about this 18.5k area for MONTHS - I'm just glad we finally got the entry we wanted. To be clear - I think the next move higher in markets will cement highs that we won't see again for decades, or possibly our lifetimes. But there is a LOT of upside between here and there Nasdaq - I am so bullish on the NDX here that it basically hurts. this 18.5k area has been a long held liquidity pool I wanted to see get visited so I could load the boat on longs. The weekly charts looks great - this was a textbook measured pullback, and I love the wall of worry that has been re-erected on the market. We got a garden-variety 12% pullback - and now we have bears on parade - and everyone is selling out of their tech stocks to go bid recession stocks like Utilities and Consumer Staples - at the EXACT wrong time. Investor psychology is truly a thing of beauty, and it's all playing out in the charts - exactly how we have been expecting. FROM HERE - I am expecting nATH on NDX. I am looking for ~ 22k on the NDX which is 18% higher from where we are now. The Dow I am much more bearish on. I think we need to see some cleanup work done to the downside on the DJI , and then it can really get going. I believe that tech will lead out of this correction into the final parabolic move higher - but when the DJI bottoms and starts to move higher - the entire market will broaden out. The current Draw on Liquidity for DJI is coming from the quarterly chart - we need to revisit the quarterly IRL while sweeping the equal lows down ~ 38k. Once that is complete, I am expecting nATH on the DJI as well. One thing we have noticed is that DJI and NDX tend to move inversely of each other - but when you average the 2 indexes together - you get the SPX. You could see NDX +3% - and the DJI -2%, and SPX would be flat - which is why we tend to focus on NDX/DJI as they offer cleaner directional plays. I think moving over the next 2 months or so, you will see DJI sell off, which will help power the NDX rally - and then once the DJI bottoms - everything everywhere will rally into the top . The main driver to this market melt-up is going to be based on 3 things - but its all technicals. VIX, Oil, and the 10yr. The VIX did a very VERY interesting move on Friday. The VIX was +60% on the day mid-Friday, but after we swept that weekly level the VIX started to retreat. I expect the VIX to possibly make one more sweep higher to run the stops ~ 31 - but that would be a HUGE buying oppty. WTI Crude Oil is on the verge of REALLY cracking to the downside. This is yet another indication of the weakening global economy - and affirmation that inflation is actually rolling over. The 10yr is always ahead of the game - the bond market is the smartest dudes at the table. We have been long bonds since the April highs and we are just now getting back into an area where we could see a sweep & bounce of the 10yr relatively soon. I want to see the 10yr REALLY smash the December Lows , and then I will be looking for a backtest. To be clear - I am looking for higher stocks, bonds, Precious Metals, and lower oil as we head into the Election. I believe that whatever highs we print (for stocks) wont be seen again for decades. I'm looking for the largest bear market in history to begin in Q1 of 2025 - and its all driven by global debt. So here is the setup I am watching for this week; I want to see NQ start the next and final leg up for the final top of 20-30%. I want to see the low of the week put in by lunch on Tuesday, and expansion higher starts soon. I Want to see The DJI continue to sell off towards 38k. I want to see the 10yr and oil continue to march lower and take out the December Lows I also want to see Oil continue to march lower due to weakening global macro. Until next week - We'll be watching.
CME_MINI:NQU2024Long
by Baero-Trading
BOJ Rate Hike Causes Unrest in the Stock Markets: What next?When the Bank of Japan hiked its interest rate at the end of July, global markets went into turbulence. We will discuss what currency carry trade is, why the yen carry trade has caused this global volatility, and, importantly, whether the market will resume its uptrend. Micro E-Mini Nasdaq Futures and Options Ticker: MNQ Minimum fluctuation: 0.25 index points = $0.50 Japanese Yen Futures Ticker: 6J 0.0000005 per JPY increment = $6.25 Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
Editors' picks
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by konhow
9
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 8/7/2024 SessionCME_MINI:NQU2024 - PR High: 18140.50 - PR Low: 18030.25 - NZ Spread: 247.00 Key scheduled economic events 10:30 | Crude Oil Inventories 13:00 | 10-Year Note Auction Climbing back to weekly high - Previous session closed as inside print doji - Weekend gap remains unfilled above 18490 Evening Stats (As of 10:55 PM 8/6) - Weekend Gap: -0.66% (open > 18515) - Session Gap 7/24: -0.32% (open > 19946) - Gap 10/30/23 +0.47% (open < 14272) - Session Open ATR: 481.22 - Volume: 44K - Open Int: 246K - Trend Grade: Bull - From BA ATH: -12.8% (Rounded) Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges) - Long: 20954 - Mid: 19814 - Short: 17533 Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions. BA: Back Adjusted BuZ/BeZ: Bull Zone / Bear Zone NZ: Neutral Zone
CME_MINI:NQU2024Long
by mv3trader5
Stock Markets Uncovered Charles Dow the Co-Founder of DOWJONES Index. Introduced technical analysis to the public in the late 1800's, You really think his gonna show you how to beat his own market ??? I don't... That's why I see masses of people trade and fail. We are Thought How to trade the markets their way , Not giving us the chance to innovate our own strategy to beat the system with a much Higher edge than what they are trying to give us... Before the stock market crash, Brokers and Merchants were under an agreement under the Button Wood Agreement in 1972. A private Club were the insiders had to follow Common rules and boundaries. This closed the system against outside agents and auctioneers. But Margin buying during the 1920's was not controlled by the government. It was controlled by brokers interested in their own well-being. The Securities Exchange Act was signed on June 6, 1934, After the Stock Market Crash of 1929. The SEC used their power to change how Wall Street operated. Meaning they control the markets and Manipulate it how ever they want. See the markets with a new perspective, Study the markets itself, Not the material others try to give you. #SMU#WakeUp#Freedom>Security
CME_MINI:MNQU2024Education
by Pableeezy
2
We have no news that may affect the market.That's the analysis for today. I want to let you know that we started the week well and I hope you will be profitable too. For those of you who give me comments and tell me that you missed the entry or that you are upset that you didn't have any trades because you missed the move, just know that it's ok. You have no reason to be upset or disappointed. That's how you learn. I too have certain times when I miss the entry and can't make any trades that day. But that's normal. That's how we learn.
CME_MINI:MNQU2024Long
by Futures-Insights
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 8/6/2024 SessionCME_MINI:NQU2024 - PR High: 18260.00 - PR Low: 18162.00 - NZ Spread: 218.75 No significant scheduled events Retraced 100% of previous session selloff - Floating above previous session high into weekend gap Evening Stats (As of 10:15 PM 8/5) - Weekend Gap: -0.66% (open > 18515) - Session Gap 7/24: -0.32% (open > 19946) - Gap 10/30/23 +0.47% (open < 14272) - Session Open ATR: 475.31 - Volume: 43K - Open Int: 244K - Trend Grade: Bull - From BA ATH: -12.3% (Rounded) Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges) - Long: 20954 - Mid: 19814 - Short: 17533 Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions. BA: Back Adjusted BuZ/BeZ: Bull Zone / Bear Zone NZ: Neutral Zone
CME_MINI:NQU2024Long
by mv3trader5
A little too much oversold - with upside limitedNot really surprised after the pop-up from the bottom. Yet, I noticed the traded volume really wasn't that significant for a 7% swing day. TO me, I read that as a bear market signal, where you have heavy dumping with HUGE volume, but also a crazy comeback, with very little volume. Thus, I do think it's really easy to profit from the swings at this moment, and more cautiously, it's about where you should place new shorts. A typical fib level @ 0.618 is pretty reasonable for me, but I'd love to see it bounce back to .786 to add extra. Nasdaq is always pretty mad when it comes to "buy the dip", so def huge opportunities for both shorts and longs.
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by Kujo_Qtaro
We are back.We are back. That's the analysis for today. I did a little bit of research over the weekend, and I think more things will change and we will have much more accurate analysis. We have no news that may affect the market. I am waiting for it to take buyside liquiditiy, break the structure and look for a sell entry up to the red line that represents the weekly low. From there I think it will reverse and we will be bullish this week. I will keep you updated in case anything changes.
CME_MINI:NQU2024Short
by Futures-Insights
18
NQ1! Historical Fall and Important LevelsThe price fluctuated by more than 5% prior to the New York session, an atypical occurrence that suggests increased risk for the week ahead. Volatility exceeding 130 should be regarded as a cautionary signal. It may be prudent to reduce trading risks this week This significant drop could be due to concerns that if the USA election results in a Trump victory, the USA might stop protecting Taiwan, which could cause major issues in semiconductor production. Important liquidity levels given in the chart. Ask any questions you might have in the comments and please boost if the idea helped you!
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by TradeConfirmed
ES, NQ, RTY, BTC bull trap? Interesting comparison between the 4 mentioned above. All broke the upper trendline and lost it, and are now dropping into oblivion. I hope for everyone's sake this is short lived, but I am bearish in the mid term. Still expecting a mega short squeeze to throw everyone off and get FOMO buyers back in. There will be plenty especially after they capitulate and eagerly want to make their gains back. Unfortunately it is not that easy. Good luck and be careful trading out there.
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by BartChartski
1
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 8/5/2024 SessionCME_MINI:NQU2024 - PR High: 18390.00 - PR Low: 18269.25 - NZ Spread: 270.0 Key scheduled economic events 09:45 | S&P Global Services PMI 10:00 | ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI - ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices Sustaining high volatility with wide weekend gap - Weekend gap down remains unfilled - Value deline ~300 points below Friday's low Evening Stats (As of 10:55 PM 8/4) - Weekend Gap: -0.66% (open > 18515) - Session Gap 7/24: -0.32% (open > 19946) - Gap 10/30/23 +0.47% (open < 14272) - Session Open ATR: 438.33 - Volume: 66K - Open Int: 244K - Trend Grade: Bull - From BA ATH: -13.6% (Rounded) Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges) - Long: 20954 - Mid: 19814 - Short: 17533 Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions. BA: Back Adjusted BuZ/BeZ: Bull Zone / Bear Zone NZ: Neutral Zone
CME_MINI:NQU2024Short
by mv3trader5