NQ Futures to 22,000 next day or two!My indicator clearly shows a buy signal, I was buying NQs and TQQQ 500 points ago when many were screaming "sell"
MNQ1! trade ideas
Today analysis for Nasdaq, Oil, and GoldNASDAQ
The Nasdaq closed lower, forming a lower wick at the bottom. The market initially dropped in pre-market trading due to Trump’s tariff imposition issue but recovered to close the gap after the one-month grace period for Mexico was announced.
At yesterday’s closing price, the daily MACD triggered a sell signal. Although there was a gap-up today, further declines are likely as the resistance level holds. However, the MACD and Signal lines are still above the zero line on the daily chart, and it will take time for the 3-day and 5-day moving averages to pull down, suggesting that the index may form a wide-ranging box pattern before the trend leans towards further declines.
On the 240-minute chart, a sell signal appeared, and after a rebound, the MACD and Signal lines are reconnecting. Since a golden cross has not yet formed, a sell strategy on rebounds would be favorable. If the MACD fails to break above the Signal line and declines, a third wave of selling could follow.
From a broader perspective, the 5-day moving average on the monthly chart coincides with the lower boundary of the daily box pattern. Until this level is strongly broken downward, short-term buy opportunities remain valid near the lower boundary of the range.
OIL
Oil gapped up but closed lower. The price failed to break above $75, leaving an upper wick. The one-month tariff grace period for Canada resulted in a gap-down movement.
The key question is whether oil will attempt another rebound, using the 240-day moving average as support. It is crucial to see if a bullish candlestick forms while maintaining support above the 240-day moving average.
On the weekly chart, oil is trapped within a box range, and as the week progresses, it will be important to assess whether conditions develop for a breakout next week.
On the 240-minute chart, a rebound has occurred up to the 60-day moving average, following the characteristics of the 240-day moving average. Since the MACD and Signal lines remain below zero, selling pressure may persist. However, this is a high-probability divergence zone. If the third wave of selling fails and prices rebound, a sharp surge is possible, so traders should be cautious with aggressive short positions.
The overall approach should be to trade within the range, favoring buy positions on pullbacks.
GOLD
Gold dropped to the 10-day moving average but found support and closed higher. On the monthly chart, a pullback to the 3-day moving average around 2,770 is possible, and a correction to the low 2,800s has already occurred.
Gold's volatility is extreme due to tariff issues, so traders must carefully adjust their leverage to ensure safe trading.
On the daily chart, MACD continues to rise, so as long as the price does not close below the 10-day moving average, a buy strategy is recommended.
On the 240-minute chart, gold formed a buy signal after a pullback and is attempting a third wave of buying. However, it is crucial that gold continues rising to avoid forming a bearish divergence. If further gains do not materialize, gold may enter a box pattern.
Overall, a buy strategy remains favorable for gold. However, traders should be cautious of increased volatility due to today’s JOLTS report.
■Trading Strategies for Today
Nasdaq - Range-bound Market
-Buy Levels: 21510 / 21410 / 21345 / 21220 / 21120
-Sell Levels: 21580 / 21640 / 21680 / 21780
Crude Oil - Range-bound Market
-Buy Levels: 71.80 / 71.30 / 70.50 / 69.85
-Sell Levels: 72.75 / 73.15 / 73.80 / 74.50
GOLD - Bullish Market
-Buy Levels: 2844 / 2832 / 2827 / 2820
-Sell Levels: 2859 / 2864 / 2870 / 2874 / 2885
These strategies apply only during pre-market hours. Profit-taking and stop-loss levels are as follows: Nasdaq: 15 points, Oil and Gold: 20 ticks.
If you liked this analysis, please follow me and give it a boost!
MNQ!/NQ1! Day Trade Plan for 02/03/25MNQ!/NQ1! Day Trade Plan for 02/03/25
📈 21306-21310, 21371, 21526-21561, 21746-21750
📉 21095-21086, 20992, 20875-20866, 20802
Like and share for more daily ES/NQ levels 🤓📈📉🎯💰
(💎: IF THERE IS NOT MUCH VOLATILITY; FOCUS ON ZONES VERSES INDIVIDUAL PRICE LEVELS)
*These levels are derived from comprehensive backtesting and research, demonstrating over 90% accuracy. This statistical foundation suggests that price movements are likely to exceed initial estimates.*
8hr 8hr looks 🔥 but need confirmation from smaller time frames looking for a high and higher low 👀 watch 💪
NQH2025 COMMENTARY📉 Market Recap – Today's Session
The market opened lower today, creating a NWOG (New Week Opening Gap). Initially, we anticipated a retracement back into the range to fill the gap while also forming a discounted opening range gap. This provided a clear indication that price had a high probability of returning to at least the minimum consequent encouragement level during the AM session.
Later, we observed a full gap closure, confirming our expectations.
That's it for today! ✅ Like & leave a comment to help us improve our market commentary. 🚀📊
Volatile Start To FebruaryMarkets across the board saw a selloff Sunday night after news broke of more tariffs affecting both Mexico and Canada. US stock indices, crypto, and precious metal markets all saw declines in prices, but throughout the day traders have seen the market digest the news and the precious metals and crypto are back to positive territory on the day. Looking at the March NQ contract, prices have been able to stay out above a trendline going back to August of 2024, but there is still a lot of room to the upside before the market can retest all time high levels.
Manufacturing and PMI numbers for the U.S. were released today and showed a better than expected number. Looking ahead to the rest of the week, traders will be looking at the JOLTs data along with ADP nonfarm employment to add volatility to the market. With markets like Gold and Bitcoin trading around critical levels, these reports can hold more weight to market movements and make the swings larger based on good or bad numbers.
Finally, we'd like to let all our readers know that CME Group has partnered with TradingView to host The Futures Leap, a 1-month trading challenge through which participants can learn to master futures markets, trade big events and compete for a share of a 25K prize purse. Click here to register for this event.
If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs tradingview.com/cme/
*CME Group futures are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of loss. Copyright © 2023 CME Group Inc.
**All examples in this report are hypothetical interpretations of situations and are used for explanation purposes only. The views in this report reflect solely those of the author and not necessarily those of CME Group or its affiliated institutions. This report and the information herein should not be considered investment advice or the results of actual market experience.
NQ: 132th trading session - recapNothing special happened today, the leap started so I will participate in that, seems pretty fun. As stated on the chart, higher timeframe analysis and this bias stuff is really really stupid. In situations where I'm 100% sure that price will dip/ go up I'll maybe use that as a bias, otherwise, from now on not.
$NQ LongOur first trade of the week followed our weekly bias, with the entry based on the AMD concept.
Journey to 53K: 2.3.25 My Live executions with ICT NQ CommentaryTook some L's today but I accept because I do not want to repeat last week over again.
We also have to get ready for work and make some breakfast for my sisters so we are calling it today. May tomorrow and the other days this week bring me more blessings. but we will see. I am really working on not feeling rushed.
Forex, Crypto and Futures Trading Risk Disclosure:
The National Futures Association (NFA) and Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), the regulatory agencies for the forex and futures markets in the United States, require that customers be informed about potential risks in trading these markets. If you do not fully understand the risks, please seek advice from an independent financial advisor before engaging in trading.
Trading forex and futures on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade, you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite.
There is a possibility of losing some or all of your initial investment, and therefore, you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. Be aware of the risks associated with leveraged trading and seek professional advice if necessary.
BDRipTrades Market Opinions (also applies to BDelCiel and Aligned & Wealthy LLC):
Any opinions, news, research, analysis, prices, or other information contained in my content (including live streams, videos, and posts) are provided as general market commentary only and do not constitute investment advice. BDRipTrades, BDelCiel, and Aligned & Wealthy LLC will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including but not limited to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from the use of or reliance on such information.
Accuracy of Information: The content I provide is subject to change at any time without notice and is intended solely for educational and informational purposes. While I strive for accuracy, I do not guarantee the completeness or reliability of any information. I am not responsible for any losses incurred due to reliance on any information shared through my platforms.
Government-Required Risk Disclaimer and Disclosure Statement:
CFTC RULE 4.41 - HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.
Performance results discussed in my content are hypothetical and subject to limitations. There are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading strategy. One of the limitations of hypothetical trading results is that they do not account for real-world financial risk.
Furthermore, past performance of any trading system or strategy does not guarantee future results.
General Trading Disclaimer:
Trading in futures, forex, and other leveraged products involves substantial risk and is not appropriate for all investors.
Do not trade with money you cannot afford to lose.
I do not provide buy/sell signals, financial advice, or investment recommendations.
Any decisions you make based on my content are solely your responsibility.
By engaging with my content, including live streams, videos, educational materials, and any communication through my platforms, you acknowledge and accept that all trading decisions you make are at your own risk. BDRipTrades, BDelCiel, and Aligned & Wealthy LLC cannot and will not be held responsible for any trading losses you may incur.
My NQ markup / direction mapI want to see NQ reprice higher but first sweep below some close range session lows
New Monday to trade in Nasdaq 25.02.03Hello, this is Greedy All-Day.
Today’s analysis focuses on the NASDAQ.
NASDAQ Daily Chart Analysis
Chart:
Let’s start by examining the daily chart. Although the chart from the past week is packed with material for a briefing, I intentionally took a break from watching the NASDAQ during the holiday period.
What we observe now is that the red box level corresponds to the deep dip that appeared last Monday.
There was a gap down at the green box, and before Friday’s close, the gap was filled via an upper wick.
Today, however, the NASDAQ has experienced another gap down, and even the lower boundary of the Ichimoku Cloud failed to hold as support. The market broke down and is now trading sideways.
Major Support and Resistance Zones on the Daily Chart
Chart:
On the daily chart, the green box zone indicates that if today’s open at 21200 manages to break upward, the gap could be filled up to around 21534.
Regarding the yellow box, due to the sharp drop on 25.01.27, the low was set higher than on 25.01.13; support has been established in the range of 20763–20694.
Thus, if the price declines further, whether the yellow box support holds will be critical.
Where to Trade Today? – 15-Minute Chart Analysis
Chart:
Buy Perspective:
Entry Trigger: A breakout above the purple box at 21200.
Rationale: Rather than trading impulsively, I recommend a long entry based on the possibility of filling the gap if today’s high is broken.
Risk: The overall trend remains bearish.
Sell Perspective:
Entry Trigger:
Option 1: A break of the short-term ascending trendline.
Option 2: A break below today’s low at 20943.
Rationale:
This signal indicates significant risk and suggests that the market is overheated—possibly on the verge of a bubble burst.
Risk:
Although the trend is bearish, entering a short position at the tail-end of a move raises questions about how far the price may fall. It is advisable to set targets based on major support levels.
Conclusion
I am observing a chaotic market, and it appears that this downtrend may just be getting started.
Stay patient and cautious, and always trade based on key levels and strategic risk management.
Happy trading, and let’s finish the week strong! 🚀
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 2/3/2025 SessionCME_MINI:NQH2025
- PR High: 21200.00
- PR Low: 20943.00
- NZ Spread: 574.5
Key scheduled economic events:
09:45 | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
10:00 | ISM Manufacturing PMI
ISM Manufacturing Prices
Another wide weekend gap, setting stage for expected excitement for the week
- Touch of 21000 long-term inventory
- Auctioning inside nearly 500 point wick from Jan 27
Session Open Stats (As of 12:45 AM 2/3)
- Weekend Gap: -1.72% (open < 21200)
- Gap 10/30/23 +0.47%
- Session Open ATR: 436.60
- Volume: 83K
- Open Int: 255K
- Trend Grade: Bull
- From BA ATH: -6.4% (Rounded)
Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges)
- Long: 22667
- Mid: 21525
- Short: 19814
Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions.
BA: Back Adjusted
BuZ/BeZ: Bull Zone / Bear Zone
NZ: Neutral Zone
Re-entry to trade Part 2. Continuation here to the first part.
Forex, Crypto and Futures Trading Risk Disclosure:
The National Futures Association (NFA) and Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), the regulatory agencies for the forex and futures markets in the United States, require that customers be informed about potential risks in trading these markets. If you do not fully understand the risks, please seek advice from an independent financial advisor before engaging in trading.
Trading forex and futures on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade, you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite.
There is a possibility of losing some or all of your initial investment, and therefore, you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. Be aware of the risks associated with leveraged trading and seek professional advice if necessary.
BDRipTrades Market Opinions (also applies to BDelCiel and Aligned & Wealthy LLC):
Any opinions, news, research, analysis, prices, or other information contained in my content (including live streams, videos, and posts) are provided as general market commentary only and do not constitute investment advice. BDRipTrades, BDelCiel, and Aligned & Wealthy LLC will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including but not limited to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from the use of or reliance on such information.
Accuracy of Information: The content I provide is subject to change at any time without notice and is intended solely for educational and informational purposes. While I strive for accuracy, I do not guarantee the completeness or reliability of any information. I am not responsible for any losses incurred due to reliance on any information shared through my platforms.
Government-Required Risk Disclaimer and Disclosure Statement:
CFTC RULE 4.41 - HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.
Performance results discussed in my content are hypothetical and subject to limitations. There are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading strategy. One of the limitations of hypothetical trading results is that they do not account for real-world financial risk.
Furthermore, past performance of any trading system or strategy does not guarantee future results.
General Trading Disclaimer:
Trading in futures, forex, and other leveraged products involves substantial risk and is not appropriate for all investors.
Do not trade with money you cannot afford to lose.
I do not provide buy/sell signals, financial advice, or investment recommendations.
Any decisions you make based on my content are solely your responsibility.
By engaging with my content, including live streams, videos, educational materials, and any communication through my platforms, you acknowledge and accept that all trading decisions you make are at your own risk. BDRipTrades, BDelCiel, and Aligned & Wealthy LLC cannot and will not be held responsible for any trading losses you may incur.
RE-ENTRY After STOPOUTShowing a re-entry execution here.
Forex, Crypto and Futures Trading Risk Disclosure:
The National Futures Association (NFA) and Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), the regulatory agencies for the forex and futures markets in the United States, require that customers be informed about potential risks in trading these markets. If you do not fully understand the risks, please seek advice from an independent financial advisor before engaging in trading.
Trading forex and futures on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade, you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite.
There is a possibility of losing some or all of your initial investment, and therefore, you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. Be aware of the risks associated with leveraged trading and seek professional advice if necessary.
BDRipTrades Market Opinions (also applies to BDelCiel and Aligned & Wealthy LLC):
Any opinions, news, research, analysis, prices, or other information contained in my content (including live streams, videos, and posts) are provided as general market commentary only and do not constitute investment advice. BDRipTrades, BDelCiel, and Aligned & Wealthy LLC will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including but not limited to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from the use of or reliance on such information.
Accuracy of Information: The content I provide is subject to change at any time without notice and is intended solely for educational and informational purposes. While I strive for accuracy, I do not guarantee the completeness or reliability of any information. I am not responsible for any losses incurred due to reliance on any information shared through my platforms.
Government-Required Risk Disclaimer and Disclosure Statement:
CFTC RULE 4.41 - HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.
Performance results discussed in my content are hypothetical and subject to limitations. There are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading strategy. One of the limitations of hypothetical trading results is that they do not account for real-world financial risk.
Furthermore, past performance of any trading system or strategy does not guarantee future results.
General Trading Disclaimer:
Trading in futures, forex, and other leveraged products involves substantial risk and is not appropriate for all investors.
Do not trade with money you cannot afford to lose.
I do not provide buy/sell signals, financial advice, or investment recommendations.
Any decisions you make based on my content are solely your responsibility.
By engaging with my content, including live streams, videos, educational materials, and any communication through my platforms, you acknowledge and accept that all trading decisions you make are at your own risk. BDRipTrades, BDelCiel, and Aligned & Wealthy LLC cannot and will not be held responsible for any trading losses you may incur.
Mark up a chart and watch me execute an idea Practice account trade since its Sunday -- we had a tough trading week last week almost blowing the account. So we want to enter the week slowly as we wait to see what the market intends to target first.
Forex, Crypto and Futures Trading Risk Disclosure:
The National Futures Association (NFA) and Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), the regulatory agencies for the forex and futures markets in the United States, require that customers be informed about potential risks in trading these markets. If you do not fully understand the risks, please seek advice from an independent financial advisor before engaging in trading.
Trading forex and futures on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade, you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite.
There is a possibility of losing some or all of your initial investment, and therefore, you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. Be aware of the risks associated with leveraged trading and seek professional advice if necessary.
BDRipTrades Market Opinions (also applies to BDelCiel and Aligned & Wealthy LLC):
Any opinions, news, research, analysis, prices, or other information contained in my content (including live streams, videos, and posts) are provided as general market commentary only and do not constitute investment advice. BDRipTrades, BDelCiel, and Aligned & Wealthy LLC will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including but not limited to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from the use of or reliance on such information.
Accuracy of Information: The content I provide is subject to change at any time without notice and is intended solely for educational and informational purposes. While I strive for accuracy, I do not guarantee the completeness or reliability of any information. I am not responsible for any losses incurred due to reliance on any information shared through my platforms.
Government-Required Risk Disclaimer and Disclosure Statement:
CFTC RULE 4.41 - HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.
Performance results discussed in my content are hypothetical and subject to limitations. There are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading strategy. One of the limitations of hypothetical trading results is that they do not account for real-world financial risk.
Furthermore, past performance of any trading system or strategy does not guarantee future results.
General Trading Disclaimer:
Trading in futures, forex, and other leveraged products involves substantial risk and is not appropriate for all investors.
Do not trade with money you cannot afford to lose.
I do not provide buy/sell signals, financial advice, or investment recommendations.
Any decisions you make based on my content are solely your responsibility.
By engaging with my content, including live streams, videos, educational materials, and any communication through my platforms, you acknowledge and accept that all trading decisions you make are at your own risk. BDRipTrades, BDelCiel, and Aligned & Wealthy LLC cannot and will not be held responsible for any trading losses you may incur.
Clear Short bias on NQ I was about to post this earlier but was quite busy, anyways I have my targets set and bias determined, last week has shown some weakness by the moment the markets closed as we have received the strong short reaction from the median of the bearish breaker.
We have also opened with significant NWOG which I expect to be partially retraced and use it as the range to be positioned short, however, not thoughtless. I will be looking after this range because the retracement levels will tell us of the following dynamic, we can surely surge now and breakdown to the sellside but this will be very bearish and weakness signal which I believe we are unlikely to see unless there is some gigantic manipulation coming in which will drown the markets down.
I expect the level of 20700 to be swept after which I will look at the price action dynamic to determine the future direction
FEBRUARY 2025 TRADING GOAL. Stay tunedUsing the trading rule below, we will trade feb and tweak as we go
A. TRADING RULES
1. Identify external range liquidity.
2. Wait for ERL to be broken and retraced in the 5min chart for clarity.
3. Mark Highs and lows of the break and retracement in 5mins chart.
4. Wait for this high or low to be broken with 3 strong candle displacement leaving a FVG in 5 mins chart.
5. Using Fib retracement, enter trade at 50% discount on the FVG.
6. Place SL on the opposing ERL marked on screen.
7. TP on the opposing internal range liquidity or external range liquidity.
8. If the above conditions are not met, DO NOT TRADE.
RULE 2
If on retracement, the FVG is violated on 50% retracement, enter short or long as the case may be.
If Marked point high and low is partially broken with FVG which then gets violated, enter for the long or short reversal as the case may be.
#202505 - priceactiontds - weekly update - nasdaqGood Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: Huge rejection right under the previous lower high, which now makes it 3 failed attempts to get above 22k and find acceptance. The selling on Friday was surprising enough to expect follow-through because many traders got trapped.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 20000 - 22500
bull case: Bulls need to keep this a higher low above 21400 or risk that market will go much lower to 21200 or even 20600. The 50% retracement of this trading range is 21600 and market stopped around that price on Friday. No matter how you want to draw this right now, it’s either a descending triangle or a trading range and the bulls are not favored to buy this rejection again. They need a bigger surprise than the bears on Friday to stop this from going down.
Invalidation is below 21400.
bear case: Bears have now the best chance of doing another deep pullback below 21000. The surprise on Friday was big enough that we can expect follow-through selling. First bear target is to make a new low below 21419 and then we have 21200 as bigger previous support. Last target for next week would be around 20800 where market decides if we make lower lows or continue in this trading range under the ath. If you look at the weekly NDX chart, you can see that we are also in a bigger diamond pattern, which is just a form of a trading range with expanding and now contracting ranges.
Invalidation is above 22000.
short term: Bearish. I do think the top 21965 will hold and we go down from here. For now I doubt we will make lower lows below 20800 though.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-01-27: High’s are most likely in. Any short with stop 22200 is good. I’d like to see 20000 over the next 2-3 weeks.
current swing trade: None
chart update: Added bear trend lines
Nasdaq (March 2025) - End of January AnalysisNasdaq was set for weekly losses due to the rout that DeepSeek caused; revealing the breakthrough they had with low-cost artificial intelligence models. This caused a bloodbath in AI linked stocks.
Technically speaking, we closed the month bullish but was still within a price range of the previous month, December 2024.
Anything higher than 50% of the December monthly wick would give me the confidence to continue the bullish bias but I see the opportunity for a short-term market shift back into a area of previous rejections @ $20,025 - $20,428 so this is what I am looking toward until proven otherwise.
Candle body closure above $22,093.50 will change my monthly bias to bullish as this will go hand in hand with my 6-month perspective
Nasdaq (March 2025) - AI All-Time High Boom!Nasdaq is trailing higher, just as ES and YM are but the market to watchout for is ES. Refer to this weeks analysis of ES to gain a deeper understanding.
Unlike ES where i am targeting all-time highs, I am more fascinated with the midpoint of the highs and open of the 16th Dec 2024 weekly candle as I would like to study how price reacts from this area.
Micro NQMight see chop at this level and a slight push down towards (21472) levels before going back up.
Weekly and Monday analysis for Nasdaq, Oil, and GoldNASDAQ
NASDAQ filled the gap and closed lower after facing resistance. As mentioned last Friday, the 21,911 level was a likely resistance zone due to the nature of the gap. This resistance played a significant role, and coincidentally, concerns over tariffs imposed by former President Trump on Mexico and Canada intensified, leading to a decline into the afternoon session.
Since the monthly candle has closed, let's first analyze the monthly chart. Last month, I mentioned that a decline to the 5-day moving average (20,880) was possible before a rebound, and indeed, the index rebounded from 20,700. Given that the price sequentially bounced from the 3-day and 5-day moving averages after breaking out of the monthly range, this month presents a challenging situation for determining direction. While further upside is possible, the monthly MACD may attempt to reduce its gap with the signal line, making a strong rally less likely. If a sharp rally occurs, the upper Bollinger Band at 22,736 should be considered as resistance. On the downside, the monthly 5-day moving average at 21,084 may be tested this month. Since the market could move in either direction, chasing momentum on the monthly chart should be approached with caution.
On the weekly chart, a sell signal remains active, with the MACD failing to cross above the signal line, suggesting that further downside remains likely.
On the daily chart, while the MACD has not yet crossed below the signal line, today's bearish candle close may trigger a sell signal, opening the possibility of a move toward the lower Bollinger Band and the 120-day moving average. If the MACD does not break down and instead turns higher while the price rises, it will be crucial to see if the 21,911 gap is decisively broken and closed with a bullish candle.
On the 240-minute chart, a buy signal is still in place, and the index remains in a large range. Buying on dips remains favorable, but if a sell signal appears, the current moving average setup suggests a high probability of sharp declines.
This week, Google's earnings report on Tuesday and the Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report on Friday are key events to watch. Additionally, with the potential impact of Trump’s tariff policies increasing market volatility, traders should manage leverage carefully and remain cautious.
Crude Oil
Oil closed near breakeven but surged in after-hours trading following reports that Canadian energy imports may face new tariffs.
On the monthly chart, oil remains within a range, but the MACD is persistently attempting to cross above the signal line. Last month’s breakout from a four-month consolidation range suggests that buying on dips at the 3-day moving average may be a favorable strategy.
On the weekly chart, the buy signal remains intact. Despite some pullback, the large gap between the MACD and the signal line suggests that a sharp breakdown is unlikely.
On the daily chart, as previously mentioned, the $72 level remains a strong buy zone. The MACD is in a steep downtrend, but given the presence of prior demand zones and the 240-day moving average acting as support, a technical rebound could be strong after two weeks of declines.
On the 240-minute chart, the MACD has bounced off the signal line, forming a bullish divergence, making long positions more favorable. Given the characteristics of the 240-day moving average, a rebound toward $74.50 is technically reasonable.
Overall, buying on dips remains a preferred approach, but market volatility is increasing due to geopolitical uncertainties, so trade cautiously.
Gold
Gold pulled back as profit-taking emerged after a sharp rally, closing lower after finding support at the 3-day moving average.
On the monthly chart, gold formed a strong bullish breakout candle, making dips toward the 3-day moving average (2,770) a favorable buying opportunity this month. A pullback to this level should be expected.
On the weekly chart, a buy signal appeared last week, but the MACD’s lower value compared to the previous peak suggests a potential bearish divergence. This means that despite breaking above prior highs, if the MACD fails to confirm with strong upward momentum, the rally may weaken. Caution is advised when chasing momentum.
On the daily chart, today is a key day for buy setups near the 5-day moving average, making a pullback likely. However, the broader trend remains bullish, so rather than shorting, traders should look for opportunities to buy on pullbacks at key support levels.
On the 240-minute chart, gold is facing resistance and declining. The MACD is at a high level, meaning even if a bearish crossover occurs, attempts to move higher may persist. Buying near support remains the preferred approach.
With Trump’s increasing policy activity and China’s Deepseek issues, market volatility is expected to rise. Always prioritize risk management and trade safely. Wishing you a successful trading month!
■Trading Strategies for Today
NASDAQ - Bullish Market
-Buy : 21,530 / 21,460 / 21,420 / 21,370 / 21,290
-Sell : 21,590 / 21,690 / 21,775 / 21,850 / 21,930
Crude Oil - Range Market
-Buy : 73.50 / 72.90 / 72.40 / 72.00
-Sell : 74.50 / 75.00 / 76.00 / 76.40
Gold - Bullish Market
-Buy : 2,825 / 2,820 / 2,812 / 2,807 / 2,804
-Sell : 2,841 / 2,846 / 2,852 / 2,856 / 2,860
These strategies apply only during pre-market hours. Profit-taking and stop-loss levels are as follows: Nasdaq: 15 points, Oil and Gold: 20 ticks.
If you liked this analysis, please follow me and give it a boost!
MNQ1! IDEA V2Self-Fixing Fibonacci Trading Strategy for MNQ1!
This strategy is designed for high-probability intraday trading on MNQ1! (Micro Nasdaq-100 Futures) using Fibonacci retracement and extension levels. It focuses on quality over quantity, reducing the number of trades while increasing position size to maximize profitability.
How It Works:
• Fibonacci Levels – Identifies key retracement and extension zones for potential entries.
• Trend Confirmation – Uses a 50-period daily moving average to ensure trades align with the overall market direction.
• Risk Management – Implements ATR-based stop-loss and take-profit levels, ensuring controlled risk per trade.
• Self-Correcting Logic – Automatically adjusts Fibonacci levels and trade parameters in volatile market conditions.
• Profit Target Optimization – Dynamically adjusts exit points to capture sustainable gains while avoiding premature exits.
This strategy is ideal for traders looking to capitalize on momentum, minimize excessive trading, and maintain disciplined risk management in a structured, automated approach.
