MSF1! trade ideas
CHF futures looking like it wants to dumpTo me it looks like CHF want to go and fill in that big gap just like the EUR already did.
Reasons for it to back up this idea:
- Well Gaps like to be filled most of the time
- HTF Bearish MS now testing the 4h -OB
- You say they ran stops above that 4h ob tight before we dumped so that is bearish
- Stops ran on the 1h double top (you would see it better on the 15 chart)
Imo you could short it now already but if you want extra confirmation like i am. Then i would wait for it to get a close under that 1h ob that will become breaker once we close under it. ( yes i put breaker in the chart but right now its still just a 1h ob but i fully expect it to become a breaker soon)
So when trading under that level i will be looking at all the CHF pairs for short ideas
SWISS (CHF FUTURES) Weekly Analysislooking at the structure of the swiss, selling might not be the best option right now. with price very low into the squeeze and price in weekly demand (tested) might see a stronger swiss over the next bit on the higher time frames. its important to know who is taking the opposite side your your trade.
SHORT SWISSShorting the swiss on it lagging on the euro a little + it's at a very good place to short with a easy stop loss to place. Good risk reward
SWISS FRANC FUTURES (MAR 2019), 1D, CMETrading Signal
Long Position (EP) : 1.0117
Stop Loss (SL) : 1.0099
Take Profit (TP) : 1.0153
Description
S6H2019 formed Turtle Soup Buy at 1d time frame. Trade setup with Buy Stop at 0.382 Level (1.0117) and place stop after 0.618 level (1.0099). Once the position was hit, place take profit before an agreement (1.0153)
Money Management
Money in portfolio : $280,000
Risk Management (1%) : $2,800
Position Sizing
$0.0001 = +-$ 12.50/std-contract
Commission fee = -$3.34/std-contract
EP to SL = $0 = -$225
Contract size to open = 13 standard contracts
EP to TP = $0.0036 = +$450
Expected Result
Commission Fee = -$43.42
Loss = -$2,925
Gain = +$5,850
Risk/Reward Ratio = 1.96
Buy S61! @ 1.0188Buy S61! @ 1.0188
Although price is still below SMA 150 and 200, short-term trend is up price above SMA50 and RSI14 just crossed above 60 on daily TF.
SWISS FRANC FUTURE - WEEKLY chartSome art here - Swiss franc is on its way to 1.00 and then below. Look for selling opportunities.
CHF short setupSwiss Franc currently in a clear down trend from daily/weekly perspective... 1.0500 proved to be key price level where institutional buyers/sellers were strong. Last time the level was tested, the price drops down significantly and I'm expecting another test of this price level. If price would reach this area again, it will probably be also 2nd touch of daily bearish trend line. Definitely best possible price to sell with enough space for down trend continuation offering positive risk reward.
Sell limit : 1.0500 ( or little bit below)
SL: 1.0600
PT: 1.0300
RRR: 1:3
Swissy Price Equilbriumthe Swissy that always magic shoot up can it happen again in the future ??? ..., trying to catch the shoot up of the Swissy :))))
Complimenting my USDCHF forecastOn the technical perspective, I think this will confirm a rebound for USDCHF as the index shows in here. Check my USDCHF chart for more details
This may give a strong rebound for USDCHF within the weeks to come.
Swiss Franc 2 Possible Bearish Patterns for Short Opportunity I like this set-up. Factors influencing me are:
Bearish Bat Pattern (Purple)
Bearish Butterfly Pattern (Blue)
RSI Overbought
Negative Divergence in RSI (RSI making higher high while price making lower highs (dark blue lines))
Trendline from the recent highs
I have set a a limit order at 1.0026 for the completion of the bat pattern and will keep it as long as price does not make a new pattern before then. If I decide to take the bearish butterfly I will update.
I Like Hunting Long Setups On The Swiss FrancHello all,
I hope everyone is well and following their trading plans. A site member brought a forex idea up with me today and I thought I would give my answer to the broader community's attention through a post here on TradingView. This is a very typical study I would do on any asset for any time frame for any type of investor/trader. Ideally, students of my level one trader education program leave with both a thorough understanding of everything you see on this chart but also the ability to do the exact same on any chart of their choosing.
So on to the chart. While no one knows for sure of anything in life, I sure like the idea of hunting long setups on the Swiss Franc at or near current levels. The trade location is appealing because it corresponds with a Fib. study trade location tool (the Line-in-the-sand within a RLZ), this market's Volume Profile PoC (Point of Control), a confluence of moving averages and most importantly, lets you take a long position on the S. Franc and risk to pre-euro-link-break levels (which I don't any of the Swiss Central Bankers want to see). From a sentiment perspective, Euro bearishness has been present for a while. It seems to have hit it's zennith with Grexit round-3. Maybe that pendulum needs to swing the other way for a bit.
Regardless, the trade itself has not developed yet but I am watching closely. Specifically, I am watching the 1.0108 & 1.03460 levels. Should the recent lows hold on what seems like a very likely retest, and we then can move back above 1.03460 I shall move to actively hunting longs. Conversely, should we see new lows then I will have to wait for new market structure to develop to consider playing the long side and the idea is basically shelved.
Just my thoughts, hope you like JC....teehee
Brian
The Rational Investor
p.s feel free to drop by our chat room here on TradingView if you have any questions ( www.tradingview.com ). Additionally, if you would like to really learn how to trade professionally then consider joining our school programs. Registration is no cost and you get Gold membership access until our fall term starts in September www.therationalinvestor.co
Cheers
Is the Swiss Franc to Blame for Gold's Pullback?The Swiss franc is lower on the day amid speculation that the Swiss National Bank (SNB) will intervene in the foreign exchange market in order to actively weaken the currency.
As you can see by the comparison, gold tracks the Swissy rather closely. Interestingly enough, gold's all-time high of $1,923 ended at about the same time the SNB decided to peg their currency to the euro. When the peg was first introduced, the single-largest daily inflow in the GLD occurred but had been wound down throughout the last few years. Traders matched that inflow into the GLD when the SNB pulled the plug on the peg.
However, I think the SNB is playing with fire. They have already taken a 60 billion CHF hit to their FX reserves due to the abrupt end of the euro peg. Furthermore, it became too expensive to keep the peg on the euro, so the SNB will likely hint at intervention as a means to keep traders from piling into it. This could work in the short-term, but these methods usually do not have lasting effects. With a balance sheet of almost 90 percent of GDP, the SNB's bluff will likely be called out in the long-run.
The franc has been a "safe" haven for investors, whether the central bank likes it or not. If global turmoil continues to strengthen, I expect the franc, and presumably gold, to increase throughout the year.
Keeping in mind, there is a 40 percent weekly appreciation that has to be digested.
The correlation should be watched further.
Swiss Franc update - End of month(2014/06/30)Now I'm looking 3 weeks up-swing
It looks blue modified schiff pichfork working
So concentrating blue median and 38% Fibo(1.1617)
I'll long late july(form 2014 - 07 - 18~~~)
Swiss WC team did already well,so
thou Argentina WC team Win
I'll reamin long
The 'Swissie' trades like goldTime to sell the 'Swissie'. Good risk reward ratio. The first target is on the bear median line (1.0800). The same applies to the Euro.
