2024-10-09 - priceactiontds - daily update - nasdaqGood evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
nasdaq - Same as dax for me. Strong breakout and I do think we will retest 21000. September high is 20537 and there is a possibility, this continues to be resistance ut given the current context, the bulls are favored for higher prices.
comment : Nested bull wedges on the daily chart and the bear gap to 20650 is getting very small. Only resistance left is the September high 20537 and the current breakout looks strong enough to expect higher highs above it and likely a retest of 21000.
current market cycle: Bull trend (nested bull wedges)
key levels: 19800 - 21000
bull case: Bulls prevented the market to close below the daily 20ema for 6 days and today bears gave up. Market refuses to go down and now we will test higher again. Bulls have all the arguments on their side if they stay above 20200. Below their case gets shaky again.
Invalidation is below 20260.
bear case: Bears see the open bear gap to 20650 and the upper bull wedge line around that same price. They will likely try to fight the bulls around that area again but I don’t think they want to risk much at that level. Market refuses to go down and their next best level for good shorts is 21000. If you are looking hard for more bear arguments… Maybe that the current volume is utterly trash and on the 1h tf you have another bull wedge and we are at the high of it. Pullback could go as deep as 20300. Can bears hope for some hot CPI and jobless claims tomorrow? I doubt it but you should not be in positions when the news is released or have really wide stops for your swings.
Invalidation is above 20520.
short term: Max bullish if the pullback stays above 20300. Neutral below.
medium-long term: Very likely a retest of the ath before I expect a correction 10% or more, before another year end rally. Embrace the volatility.
current swing trade : Nope
trade of the day: Long the opening reversal. Was too strong to now long it, no ifs or buts.
