NQ1! trade ideas
Expectations for PPI tomorrowMarch 13, 2025: Producer Price Index (PPI) Report & Market Outlook
PPI Overview: Inflation Trends & Market Impact
The Producer Price Index (PPI) measures the average change over time in the selling prices received by domestic producers for their output. It's a key indicator of inflation at the wholesale level, influencing consumer prices, monetary policy decisions, and financial markets.
Recent PPI Trends:
January 2025: PPI for final demand increased 0.4% MoM, following a 0.5% rise in December 2024. Year-over-year, PPI advanced 3.5% in January.
February 2025 Forecast: Analysts anticipate a 0.3% MoM increase, suggesting continued inflationary pressures.
PPI Data Breakdown: Expected vs. Actual (To Be Updated Post-Release)
Expected PPI (MoM): +0.3%
Expected PPI (YoY): +3.5%
Core PPI (Ex-Food & Energy, MoM): +0.2%
Core PPI (Ex-Food & Energy, YoY): +3.2%
Actual PPI Data: Pending release at 8:30 AM EST
Immediate Market Reaction (Post-Release Update Needed)
Stocks: S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow futures reaction.
Bonds: 10-Year Treasury yield movement.
Forex: USD reaction vs. EUR, JPY, and GBP.
Commodities: Gold, oil, and industrial metals response.
Sector-Specific Impacts
Growth Stocks (Tech & Discretionary): Higher PPI could trigger a sell-off if rate hike fears rise.
Defensive Stocks (Utilities & Consumer Staples): Likely to outperform in a high-inflation scenario.
Industrial & Energy Sectors: Higher input costs could pressure margins.
Financials: Banks may benefit if inflation keeps rates higher for longer.
Trading Strategies & Key Levels
S&P 500 Levels: Watching 4,800 support, 5,000 resistance.
Nasdaq: Tech stocks volatile above/below 16,000.
DXY (Dollar Index): Bullish above 105 if inflation exceeds expectations.
Gold: Strong resistance at $2,100; potential breakout if inflation data disappoints.
Bonds: 10-Year yield key level at 4.25%.
Macro & Fed Policy Implications
Hotter PPI (+0.4% or higher): Could delay Fed rate cuts, leading to risk-off sentiment.
Cooler PPI (+0.2% or lower): Could reinforce rate cut expectations, boosting risk assets.
Fed Watch: Next FOMC decision hinges on both PPI and CPI trends; traders should monitor Fed speakers post-release.
Considerations for Investors
Monitor Federal Reserve Signals: Any shift in rate-cut expectations will heavily impact market direction.
Sector Analysis: Industries with high input costs may experience increased volatility.
Inflationary Pressures: Rising PPI suggests consumer prices could also increase, influencing Fed decisions.
Conclusion
The March 13 PPI report will set the tone for upcoming Fed policy moves, market sentiment, and trading strategies leading into Q2. Stay alert for real-time updates post-release as market conditions evolve.
NQ Long (03-12-25)Staying with the Long and U Turn Pop up retest higher. Bigger move after Pop Stall out. Yesterday's Post Scalp trades in the range did show the build or positioning for a Long move next. Will update as we go, the BTD/FOMO's showing up from Spring Break but may be hungover so give then a day or so.
Increasing VolatilityExecutive Summary
Volatility in the E-mini S&P 500 (ES) futures market has risen significantly over the past two weeks, as evidenced by the upward trajectory of both the 10-period and 60-period SMA Historical Volatility (HV) metrics. This report analyzes the implications of heightened volatility on market participation and liquidity, while providing actionable strategies to leverage these conditions effectively.
Current Volatility Overview
Key Observations (March 3–13, 2025):
The 10-period SMA HV (10-minute) has surged from 0.075 to 0.225, reflecting rapid intraday price swings.
The 60-period SMA HV (60-minute) trended upward from 0.100 to 0.200, confirming a sustained volatility regime.
Divergence between the two SMAs indicates accelerating short-term volatility relative to the longer-term trend.
Drivers:
Macroeconomic uncertainty (e.g., geopolitical events, central bank policy shifts).
Earnings seasonality and sector rotation.
Algorithmic trading amplifying price movements.
Impact of Volatility on Market Dynamics
1. Market Participation
Increased Activity from Short-Term Traders:
Day traders and algo systems capitalize on wider price ranges and intraday momentum.
Scalping strategies thrive in choppy markets.
Reduced Long-Term Positioning:
Institutional investors may defer large orders to avoid slippage.
Risk-averse participants hedge via options or reduce exposure.
2. Liquidity Dynamics
Bid-Ask Spreads: Likely to widen as market makers price in risk, particularly during off-peak hours.
Slippage Risk: Elevated during high-volatility spikes (e.g., news events).
Liquidity Clustering: Focus on peak trading hours (e.g., NYSE open/close) where order book depth remains robust.
Strategic Recommendations for Traders
1. Adapt Position Sizing and Risk Management
Reduce position sizes to mitigate volatility-driven drawdowns.
Use dynamic stop-loss orders to protect against sudden reversals.
2. Leverage Volatility-Sensitive Instruments
Trade volatility derivatives (e.g., VIX futures, options) to hedge or speculate.
Implement straddle/strangle strategies ahead of scheduled catalysts (e.g., CPI reports).
3. Optimize Execution Timing
Focus on high-liquidity windows (e.g., 9:30–11:30 AM ET) to minimize slippage.
Avoid holding oversized positions into overnight sessions.
4. Monitor Key Technical Levels
Track the 10-period SMA HV for intraday momentum signals.
Use the 60-period SMA HV to identify broader trend reversals.
5. Stay Informed
Track real-time news feeds for unexpected catalysts.
Analyze volume profiles to distinguish between noise and meaningful price action.
Conclusion
The current volatility regime in ES futures presents both opportunities and risks. Traders who adjust their strategies to prioritize risk management, liquidity awareness, and tactical execution will be best positioned to capitalize on price dislocations. While short-term traders may thrive in this environment, long-term participants should remain cautious, using volatility as a tool for strategic entry/exit points rather than a deterrent.
Prepared by: Joshua C Dawson
Managing Director/ Oxley & Sinclair
Date: March 12, 2025
How to trade CPI?You don't! You wait till the storm is over then you just ping pong your way to riches ;-)
now who's TheGhost In The Machine ?
$2k in profits after this one trade on NQ!Give it a thumbs up if you guys liked this video!
Thank you for the support guys.
100 tick NQ trade, SL hit in profitsTargeting BSL and NY AM highs, but we were stopped out after taking the short term buyside.
NASDAQ I Weekly CLS, Daily CLS, KL - W Ob, Daily Ob model 1Hey Traders!!
Feel free to share your thoughts, charts, and questions in the comments below—I'm about fostering constructive, positive discussions!
Nasdaq seasonality suggests upside since march
🧩 What is CLS?
CLS represents the "smart money" across all markets. It brings together the capital from the largest investment and central banks, boasting a daily volume of over 6.5 trillion.
✅By understanding how CLS operates—its specific modes and timings—you gain a powerful edge with more precise entries and well-defined targets.
🛡️Follow me and take a closer look at Models 1 and 2.
These models are key to unlocking the market's potential and can guide you toward smarter trading decisions.
📍Remember, no strategy offers a 100%-win rate—trading is a journey of constant learning and improvement. While our approaches often yield strong profits, occasional setbacks are part of the process. Embrace every experience as an opportunity to refine your skills and grow.
Wishing you continued success on your trading journey. May this educational post inspire you to become an even better trader!
“Adapt what is useful, reject what is useless, and add what is specifically your own.”
Dave Hunter ⚔
update on nas buygreat setup... we caught about 350 pts hitting that tp1 and beyond.. woke up to a nice bag. now price is back at the buy level.. now will it respect and go for the next target, or close into our sell zone to continue tankin
nq heading to top of long downward channel for a testprice is still under a break down trend line, just tested with cpi bounce. i believe it will continue to test that line or break above it to challenge the top of the channel. any good news will be a massive squeeze. there is a gap to fill at 20200ish, possible friday target for a relief rally.
nq major down channel price has reacted at the bottom of this very steep channel every time. i expect a reaction around 19300.
NAS Futures - LongsLooking for longs from this fib range off the 78.6 zone.
Targeting the immediate high from this 15m range to at least take partials because price can go higher.
Higher timeframe on daily I see that we could continue higher which is why I am playing the 15m trend building after visiting our Daily IPA.
Limit is set and we shall see how it turnes out. Let me know what yall think and follow to keep track of my journey.
CME_MINI:MNQ1!
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 3/12/2025 SessionCME_MINI:NQH2025
- PR High: 19479.75
- PR Low: 19399.25
- NZ Spread: 180.0
Key scheduled economic events:
08:30 | CPI (Core|YoY|MoM)
09:30 | Crude Oil Inventories
13:00 | 10-Year Note Auction
Previous session closed practically unchanged following wide value swings
- Auctions continues to hold Monday's lows
- Inventory low declined to 19200, advertising rotation above 19690
Session Open Stats (As of 12:35 AM 3/12)
- Session Open ATR: 482.56
- Volume: 30K
- Open Int: 292K
- Trend Grade: Neutral
- From BA ATH: -13.2% (Rounded)
Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges)
- Long: 22667
- Mid: 21525
- Short: 19814
Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions.
BA: Back Adjusted
BuZ/BeZ: Bull Zone / Bear Zone
NZ: Neutral Zone
MNQ!/NQ1! Day Trade Plan for 03/11/2025MNQ!/NQ1! Day Trade Plan for 03/11/2025
📈19470 19560
📉19380 19285
Like and share for more daily NQ levels 🤓📈📉🎯💰
*These levels are derived from comprehensive backtesting and research and a quantitative system demonstrating high accuracy. This statistical foundation suggests that price movements are likely to exceed initial estimates.*
MNQ!/NQ1! Day Trade Plan for 03/10/2025MNQ!/NQ1! Day Trade Plan for 03/10/2025
📈20040 20140
📉19760 19665
Like and share for more daily NQ levels 🤓📈📉🎯💰
*These levels are derived from comprehensive backtesting and research and a quantitative system demonstrating high accuracy. This statistical foundation suggests that price movements are likely to exceed initial estimates.*
NQ: 153rd trading session - recapI missed my session yesterday because for March the times are off by 1h - I obviously did NOT realise that...
Good session, I gotta start taking more confluences like the one marked on the chart...
Nasdaq (March 2025) - Aiming For Low Hanging FruitsAs we have seen a recent delivery through a higher timeframe Sellside liquidity pool @ 20248.75 as well as tagging the weekly bullish order block @ 20011.25 I am not really seeing any signatures on this timeframe to suggest that Nasdaq is bullish at the moment.
However, on the lower timeframes, there is a potential for Nasdaq to attack premium PD arrays before reversing and continuing it's bearish trend.
I want to see the highs for the week created by Wednesday latest.
Sunday gap opening will determine the likelihood of this bias delivering
NQ Long (03-11-25)NAZ is at U Turn #2 and third triangle Key Level. You would think we would see a bounce as we are 13% from ATH and 13% from 2024 Open Price. Follow KL's lower for support or look for any bounce 1st, then to stall and drop. NAZ has no strength and much of the prior strength (past few years) came in the O/N (overnight). BTD/FOMO's are on at the Tiki Bar on Spring Break. Just a classic pump/dump, they aren't even hiding it.
SELL ON NAS (FUTURES OR INDICES)we have finally broken another level as nas continues to drop. we had a nice bullish engulfing holding up the support which finally was broken giving us a solid entry ... the targets are set and let the trade play out
Fractality in Trading: the market’s hidden patternHave you ever noticed how price movements look similar across different timeframes? This is Fractality in Trading, a concept that suggests markets behave in repeating patterns regardless of scale.
In the chart above, we compare the 1-Day (left) vs. 1-Week (right) timeframe for NASDAQ 100 Futures. Despite the difference in time horizons, the price movements, corrections, and trend reversals mirror each other, following the same wave structures.
What Does This Mean for Traders?
✔️ Price Action Repeats Itself: Market cycles—uptrends, downtrends, and consolidations—occur in similar ways across different timeframes.
✔️ Multi-Timeframe Analysis (MTA): By analyzing a higher timeframe (1W), traders can identify key trends and use the lower timeframe (1D) for precision entries.
✔️ Scalability: Whether you are a swing trader, day trader, or long-term investor, the same patterns apply, making technical analysis universally effective.
Key Takeaway
Understanding fractality helps traders align their trades with the dominant trend, reducing false signals and improving trade confidence.
Do you use multi-timeframe analysis in your strategy? Let me know in the comments!
$1,000+ Profit on NQ with this one tradeGive this post a like and if we get it to 100 likes I will post on my YT the entry to this trade as well as an explanation as to why I entered here.
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