Week of August 11 - NQ/VIX/CL/10yrWowza, what a week we just had!
Sunday night the Yen carry trade started to unwind in a magnificent fashion.
We came in on Monday morning with the NDX down 1k handles, and the VIX at 60. Most of this has corrected itself as NQ actually closed the week +60 handles - but there is something more sinister at play I fear.
This week is going to be a HUGE DEAL for the weekly charts - as I think we are setting up into the final parabolic move into the election.
The Nasdaq opened the week down 1k handles on Monday morning, and the dip was properly bought. The 17,340 area is a BIG deal as it marks a quarterly and weekly low.
Where we closed on Friday 8/2 had me REALLY bullish coming into last week - but the damage that was created on the charts from Sunday nights sell-off cant be ignored.
The REALLY SNEAKY part here- it that we now have bear flags on the daily and h4 charts for NQ - and they closed us up here just to fill the opening weekly gap and volume imbalance.
We could see them spike this another 400 handles from here - and it wouldn't invalidate the sell case. Bottom line - I can't buy until I see them run those HUGE equal lows on the quarterly/weekly charts down at 17,340. Once we do that, I will be looking to get VERY LARGE in longs to ~24k area for the final blow off move on NQ.
The VIX had quite the week - it was up ~ 60 when we came into the cash open on Monday morning - the highest weekly level since the pandemic panic spike.
That said, the weekly chart has completely broken out - and I want to view this as a backtest. There is a small weekly FVG that will form on Monday for the VIX to drop and fill - but I am viewing this as an area I want to see the VIX hold - as I believe they will drop the indexes from here for one more flush - just before the final long.
Crude Oil actually had a REALLY nice week last week.
The lows were set Monday morning, and oil never looked back. I am looking for oil to continue it march up to the 79 area for the backtest.
We need to reject 79 with vigor and star the march lower for oil as the global economy slips into recession - as oil and the bond market are already aware.
The 10yr bounced at a very predictable place and has now begun its backtest. I am looking for the 10yr to sweep last weeks highs, before resuming its march lower as we head towards autumn and into a global recession.
So here is the setup I am watching for this week;
I want to see NQ sweep the lows of last week - this is a MASSIVE level on the quarterly and weekly charts - there is TONS of liquidity down there that Market Makers can use to sweep and order pair long for the final parabolic leg higher.
I want to see the 10yr bounce to sweep last weeks highs - and then continue to make fresh lows. We took out December lows last week.
I want to see oil continue it march higher to the 79 level to complete the weekly structure backtest - then drop due to weakening global macro.
Until next week - We'll be watching.
