Micro NQMight see chop at this level and a slight push down towards (21472) levels before going back up.
NQ1! trade ideas
Weekly and Monday analysis for Nasdaq, Oil, and GoldNASDAQ
NASDAQ filled the gap and closed lower after facing resistance. As mentioned last Friday, the 21,911 level was a likely resistance zone due to the nature of the gap. This resistance played a significant role, and coincidentally, concerns over tariffs imposed by former President Trump on Mexico and Canada intensified, leading to a decline into the afternoon session.
Since the monthly candle has closed, let's first analyze the monthly chart. Last month, I mentioned that a decline to the 5-day moving average (20,880) was possible before a rebound, and indeed, the index rebounded from 20,700. Given that the price sequentially bounced from the 3-day and 5-day moving averages after breaking out of the monthly range, this month presents a challenging situation for determining direction. While further upside is possible, the monthly MACD may attempt to reduce its gap with the signal line, making a strong rally less likely. If a sharp rally occurs, the upper Bollinger Band at 22,736 should be considered as resistance. On the downside, the monthly 5-day moving average at 21,084 may be tested this month. Since the market could move in either direction, chasing momentum on the monthly chart should be approached with caution.
On the weekly chart, a sell signal remains active, with the MACD failing to cross above the signal line, suggesting that further downside remains likely.
On the daily chart, while the MACD has not yet crossed below the signal line, today's bearish candle close may trigger a sell signal, opening the possibility of a move toward the lower Bollinger Band and the 120-day moving average. If the MACD does not break down and instead turns higher while the price rises, it will be crucial to see if the 21,911 gap is decisively broken and closed with a bullish candle.
On the 240-minute chart, a buy signal is still in place, and the index remains in a large range. Buying on dips remains favorable, but if a sell signal appears, the current moving average setup suggests a high probability of sharp declines.
This week, Google's earnings report on Tuesday and the Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report on Friday are key events to watch. Additionally, with the potential impact of Trump’s tariff policies increasing market volatility, traders should manage leverage carefully and remain cautious.
Crude Oil
Oil closed near breakeven but surged in after-hours trading following reports that Canadian energy imports may face new tariffs.
On the monthly chart, oil remains within a range, but the MACD is persistently attempting to cross above the signal line. Last month’s breakout from a four-month consolidation range suggests that buying on dips at the 3-day moving average may be a favorable strategy.
On the weekly chart, the buy signal remains intact. Despite some pullback, the large gap between the MACD and the signal line suggests that a sharp breakdown is unlikely.
On the daily chart, as previously mentioned, the $72 level remains a strong buy zone. The MACD is in a steep downtrend, but given the presence of prior demand zones and the 240-day moving average acting as support, a technical rebound could be strong after two weeks of declines.
On the 240-minute chart, the MACD has bounced off the signal line, forming a bullish divergence, making long positions more favorable. Given the characteristics of the 240-day moving average, a rebound toward $74.50 is technically reasonable.
Overall, buying on dips remains a preferred approach, but market volatility is increasing due to geopolitical uncertainties, so trade cautiously.
Gold
Gold pulled back as profit-taking emerged after a sharp rally, closing lower after finding support at the 3-day moving average.
On the monthly chart, gold formed a strong bullish breakout candle, making dips toward the 3-day moving average (2,770) a favorable buying opportunity this month. A pullback to this level should be expected.
On the weekly chart, a buy signal appeared last week, but the MACD’s lower value compared to the previous peak suggests a potential bearish divergence. This means that despite breaking above prior highs, if the MACD fails to confirm with strong upward momentum, the rally may weaken. Caution is advised when chasing momentum.
On the daily chart, today is a key day for buy setups near the 5-day moving average, making a pullback likely. However, the broader trend remains bullish, so rather than shorting, traders should look for opportunities to buy on pullbacks at key support levels.
On the 240-minute chart, gold is facing resistance and declining. The MACD is at a high level, meaning even if a bearish crossover occurs, attempts to move higher may persist. Buying near support remains the preferred approach.
With Trump’s increasing policy activity and China’s Deepseek issues, market volatility is expected to rise. Always prioritize risk management and trade safely. Wishing you a successful trading month!
■Trading Strategies for Today
NASDAQ - Bullish Market
-Buy : 21,530 / 21,460 / 21,420 / 21,370 / 21,290
-Sell : 21,590 / 21,690 / 21,775 / 21,850 / 21,930
Crude Oil - Range Market
-Buy : 73.50 / 72.90 / 72.40 / 72.00
-Sell : 74.50 / 75.00 / 76.00 / 76.40
Gold - Bullish Market
-Buy : 2,825 / 2,820 / 2,812 / 2,807 / 2,804
-Sell : 2,841 / 2,846 / 2,852 / 2,856 / 2,860
These strategies apply only during pre-market hours. Profit-taking and stop-loss levels are as follows: Nasdaq: 15 points, Oil and Gold: 20 ticks.
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MNQ1! IDEA V2Self-Fixing Fibonacci Trading Strategy for MNQ1!
This strategy is designed for high-probability intraday trading on MNQ1! (Micro Nasdaq-100 Futures) using Fibonacci retracement and extension levels. It focuses on quality over quantity, reducing the number of trades while increasing position size to maximize profitability.
How It Works:
• Fibonacci Levels – Identifies key retracement and extension zones for potential entries.
• Trend Confirmation – Uses a 50-period daily moving average to ensure trades align with the overall market direction.
• Risk Management – Implements ATR-based stop-loss and take-profit levels, ensuring controlled risk per trade.
• Self-Correcting Logic – Automatically adjusts Fibonacci levels and trade parameters in volatile market conditions.
• Profit Target Optimization – Dynamically adjusts exit points to capture sustainable gains while avoiding premature exits.
This strategy is ideal for traders looking to capitalize on momentum, minimize excessive trading, and maintain disciplined risk management in a structured, automated approach.
Idea with support fibs MNQ1!Purpose and Idea Behind the Script
This Pine Script strategy is designed for Fibonacci-based intraday trading with a focus on larger, high-quality trades while minimizing excessive trading frequency. The strategy leverages Fibonacci retracement and extension levels to identify potential high-probability entry points. It incorporates trend confirmation from a daily moving average, ATR-based risk management, and self-adjusting trade sizing to optimize performance.
The core idea is to execute trades with a fixed dollar amount per trade, ensuring consistency in risk exposure while reducing overtrading. Risk management includes dynamic stop-loss and take-profit levels, daily drawdown limits, and automatic recalibration of Fibonacci levels in volatile markets. The strategy is self-correcting, meaning it adjusts calculations dynamically to maintain effectiveness under different market conditions.
FEBRUARY SEASONALITYIt is the beginning of a new month with a bullish seasonality as characteristic. The deep retracement lower made the last week, fuelled by the DeepSeek smokescreen news, targeted and breached multiple Discount Liquidity Pools, including the Previous Monthly Low.
That sets the stage for higher prices, therefore, I expect price to trade below the Previous Days' Low(s) before starting rallying higher towards the Monthly High and Weekly Relative Equal Highs.
MNQ IDEAThe Enhanced Fibonacci Growth Strategy is a complex, multi-layered trading approach designed to generate high probability setups and manage risk effectively in a volatile market. Here’s a breakdown of the strategy and the thinking behind the script:
1. Fibonacci Retracement and Extension Levels:
• Purpose: Fibonacci retracements (38.2%, 50%, 61.8%) and extensions (161.8%) are crucial levels where price tends to reverse or consolidate. The script uses these levels to identify potential entry points and profit-taking areas.
• Thinking Behind It: The idea is to enter trades near key Fibonacci retracement levels (typically between 38.2% and 61.8%), as they are strong support or resistance zones. Once price moves beyond these zones, the Fibonacci extension levels can act as potential targets for taking profits.
2. Trend Confirmation with Moving Average:
• Purpose: The script uses a 50-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) to determine the overall market trend.
• Thinking Behind It: The SMA helps to filter out trades that go against the trend. The idea is to buy when the price is above the moving average (indicating a bullish trend) and avoid taking long positions during bearish trends (when the price is below the moving average). This ensures that trades are taken only in the direction of the prevailing trend, improving the probability of success.
3. Dynamic Position Sizing Using Risk Factor:
• Purpose: The script adjusts position size dynamically based on the account equity and stop loss distance. The risk factor defines the portion of equity allocated to each trade.
• Thinking Behind It: The risk amount is calculated as a percentage of total equity, ensuring that the trade size is appropriate for the account size and volatility. This reduces the chance of catastrophic losses and ensures that the trader’s capital is managed responsibly. By adjusting position sizes dynamically, the strategy adapts to changing market conditions and balances risk across trades.
4. ATR-Based Stop Loss and Take Profit:
• Purpose: The Average True Range (ATR) is used to determine the stop loss and take profit levels based on market volatility.
• Thinking Behind It: ATR is a measure of market volatility. By using ATR to calculate the stop loss and take profit, the script adjusts for the current market conditions, ensuring that the stop loss and take profit are wide enough to avoid getting stopped out prematurely in choppy conditions, but tight enough to lock in profits when the market moves in the desired direction. This helps in maintaining a balance between protecting against losses and capturing profits.
5. Drawdown Management:
• Purpose: The script incorporates multiple drawdown limits to manage risk on both a per-trade and daily basis.
• Thinking Behind It: The goal is to protect the account from large, uncontrollable losses. The strategy sets daily, per-trade, and total drawdown limits to close all positions and stop trading if the drawdown exceeds a predefined threshold. This is done to ensure the strategy doesn’t blow up the account in case of a losing streak or an unexpected market event.
6. Time-Based Trade Duration (30-Minute Limit):
• Purpose: Trades are closed within a 30-minute window to avoid holding positions for too long and exposing the account to extended risk.
• Thinking Behind It: By limiting trade duration, the strategy seeks to capture short-term moves while avoiding exposure to long-term market fluctuations that could lead to larger losses. The 30-minute window ensures that the strategy operates in a more active, intraday context, making it suitable for shorter timeframes like 30-minute or 45-minute charts.
7. Target Profit:
• Purpose: The script sets a target profit of $10,000 for the strategy to achieve within a 12-hour timeframe.
• Thinking Behind It: The goal is to grow the account by a fixed amount within a short period, using a combination of high-probability setups and strict risk management. By setting a target profit, the strategy has a clear objective, ensuring it is focused on consistent, profitable trades without taking excessive risk.
8. Overall Goal:
• Purpose: The strategy aims to grow a $100,000 account to $110,000 within 12 hours, using Fibonacci-based entries, trend-following confirmation, and dynamic risk management techniques.
• Thinking Behind It: The focus is on achieving consistent, small gains within a fixed timeframe. By utilizing Fibonacci levels for entries and exits, confirming trends with a moving average, and employing dynamic risk management (position sizing, ATR-based stops, drawdown limits), the strategy balances the potential for profit with strict risk control.
Complexity of the Script:
The script is highly sophisticated and takes into account multiple variables, such as Fibonacci levels, moving averages, volatility-based risk management (ATR), and dynamic position sizing. It also incorporates various safety mechanisms like drawdown limits to protect the account from significant losses. The combination of these factors makes it a comprehensive and robust strategy for short-term trading with a clear risk-to-reward ratio.
Conclusion:
The Enhanced Fibonacci Growth Strategy is a well-balanced trading approach designed to take advantage of key price levels, trend direction, and market volatility while keeping risk under control. The strategy is dynamic and adaptive, adjusting to changing market conditions to maximize the chances of achieving a specific profit target within a set timeframe. Its complexity lies in its multi-layered approach to risk management, time-based trade duration, and Fibonacci-based decision-making, making it suitable for traders who want a structured, disciplined way to grow their account over short periods.
The Market Matrix - Gold, Crude, DXY & Nasdaq for Feb 1 2025This weeks edition of The Market Matrix.
Disclaimer
The information provided in this content is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice, investment recommendations, or an offer to buy or sell any securities or financial instruments.
Trading financial markets involves significant risk, including the potential loss of capital. Past performance is not indicative of future results. You are solely responsible for your trading decisions and should conduct your own research or consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any financial decisions.
The creator of this content assumes no liability for any losses or damages resulting from reliance on the information provided. By engaging with this content, you acknowledge and accept these risks.
$NQ MMBMIn the 4H timeframe, we believe the week will start with a decline to seek liquidity in a discounted region, in order to pair orders and continue the macro bullish movement.
$NQ MMBMThe price respected the Mean Threshold of the weekly Order Block, forming a swing at a key level. We anticipate the third candle distribution and expect next week to be a classic buy week, with the previous week's daily high as our first target.
NQ: 131th trading session - recapThat's the end of the month - last 2 sessions were pretty boring, literally no entries whatsoever.
I'll probably do a monthly recap, but just not on here.
Although I will say some stuff...
opening trades:
1x winning trade (+3RR)
1x losing trade(-1RR)
1x missed trades, I'm a dumbass (possible +3RR)
1x possible trade after reconsideration (breakeven)
ranging trades:
I lost count, I'm still developing so it's not that important lmao.
Anyways, overall a good month, didn't expect so many trades, definitely better than December '23
Nasdaq (March 2025) - FOMC Disappointment! #S1E3FOMC did not play out as expected!
Here, I explain how FOMC affected the technical between YM, NQ and ES.
NQ Range (01-27-25)Final week of the 1st month, so far not much has changed with intraday Price Action. The original Danger Zone TL (Orange) now has a lower long term TL that may be an indication that the Danger Zone is dropping (NAZ may start to experience lower lows and start a decline). Short below 22,200 and Long above. 19,200 is Strong Long Zone, we did retest U Turn Zone #1 (21,000) and may retest #2 (20,000). For now, Long in the O/N, fade the Open Range and Long in Dead Zone or near the Close. Should this pattern change, it would be a minor miracle. Go Fed & Washington Street (Wall Street is 2nd Banana), the Fed Is back this week.
MNQ!/NQ1! Day Trade Plan for 01/31/25MNQ!/NQ1! Day Trade Plan for 01/31/25
📈 21849.75, 21937.25, 22024.75 (NEXT ZONES: 21859.5-21968.75)
📉 21674.50, 21587, 21499.25 (NEXT ZONES: 21748.75-21639)
Like and share for more daily ES/NQ levels 🤓📈📉🎯💰
(💎: IF THERE IS NOT MUCH VOLATILITY; FOCUS ON ZONES VERSES INDIVIDUAL PRICE LEVELS)
*These levels are derived from comprehensive backtesting and research, demonstrating over 90% accuracy. This statistical foundation suggests that price movements are likely to exceed initial estimates.*
From almost Blowing Funded account to being back in ProfitsThis was a perfect illustration of how our emotions can affect us and our trading decisions.
However through my 5 years of trading, I've been working on mastering my emotions as best as I can and as you guys can see-- I still had several times where I showed plenty of emotions. This leads me to come to the conclusion I still have a long way to go with mastering my emotions but progress is being made, and that is enough for me. If you guys liked this idea and post please give it a like!
Forex and Futures Trading Risk Disclosure:
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Trading forex and futures on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade, you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite.
There is a possibility of losing some or all of your initial investment, and therefore, you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. Be aware of the risks associated with leveraged trading and seek professional advice if necessary.
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Performance results discussed in my content are hypothetical and subject to limitations. There are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading strategy. One of the limitations of hypothetical trading results is that they do not account for real-world financial risk.
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General Trading Disclaimer:
Trading in futures, forex, and other leveraged products involves substantial risk and is not appropriate for all investors.
Do not trade with money you cannot afford to lose.
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By engaging with my content, including live streams, videos, educational materials, and any communication through my platforms, you acknowledge and accept that all trading decisions you make are at your own risk. BDRipTrades, BDelCiel, and Aligned & Wealthy LLC cannot and will not be held responsible for any trading losses you may incur.
NQ 310125My trading plan is to wait for price to reach the drawn lines or boxes to look for entry signals. The drawn lines or boxes are strong support/resistance zones, these are potential reversal areas when price approaches. If price breaks out instead of reversing, this is where to wait for a retest to look for entry signals. Good luck my friend!
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 1/31/2025 SessionCME_MINI:NQH2025
- PR High: 21725.25
- PR Low: 21660.00
- NZ Spread: 145.5
Key scheduled economic events:
08:30 | Core PCE Price Index (YoY|MoM)
09:45 | Chicago PMI
Inching close to 21800 weekend gap breakout, following previous session liquidity swings
- Holding action above previous session close, at highs
- Daily gap fill advertisement remains
Session Open Stats (As of 12:55 AM 1/31)
- Weekend Gap: -0.62% (open > 21904)
- Session Gap 1/31 +0.33% (open < 21633)
- Gap 10/30/23 +0.47%
- Session Open ATR: 403.79
- Volume: 32K
- Open Int: 258K
- Trend Grade: Bull
- From BA ATH: -3.1% (Rounded)
Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges)
- Long: 22667
- Mid: 21525
- Short: 19814
Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions.
BA: Back Adjusted
BuZ/BeZ: Bull Zone / Bear Zone
NZ: Neutral Zone
Today analysis for Nasdaq, Oil, and GoldNasdaq
The Nasdaq closed higher within its range-bound market. On the daily chart, it faced resistance near the gap created on January 27. Even if the index continues to rise, it is likely to encounter strong resistance near the January 24 closing price of 21,911. Keep in mind the principle that gaps tend to get filled and that they often act as strong support or resistance levels once filled.
Since the MACD is still maintaining a buy signal on the daily chart, it is advantageous to adopt a buy-on-dip strategy. The recent move appears to be driven by dollar weakness, and similar to gold's strong rally yesterday, Nasdaq could also experience an additional upward rally. Therefore, short positions should be taken at the highest possible levels.
On the 240-minute chart, the MACD has crossed above the zero line and is now pulling the signal line upward as well. If the index continues to rise and fills the gap, both the MACD and signal line will be above the zero line, and after consolidating at the gap resistance level, the next directional movement will likely be determined. It is best to focus on buying on dips while setting strict stop-loss levels for any short positions above the gap. Proper risk management is key.
Crude Oil
Crude oil closed nearly flat but showed a meaningful breakout from the downward channel on the shorter time frames. It also created a gap-up on the daily chart and broke above the 5-day moving average. Previously, oil had been declining due to Trump's announcement regarding increased oil drilling, but this news is largely priced in now, making a technical rebound possible.
The key level to watch on the upside is $74.50, while buying opportunities exist below $73, with a stop-loss at $72.
On the 240-minute chart, bullish divergence has formed at the bottom, leading to another buy signal. Since the price appears to be building a base, additional buying momentum could emerge. While the market is still range-bound, a buy-on-dip strategy remains favorable for now.
Gold
Gold surged to new all-time highs and closed with strong gains. The rally was driven by increased demand for safe-haven assets following Trump’s tariff imposition, boosting gold prices significantly. As mentioned yesterday, the MACD turned upward again, leading to another sharp rally on the daily chart.
Since gold strongly broke out of its previous range with a large bullish candlestick, today is a buy-on-dip day, particularly near the 3-day moving average. If the price retraces in the pre-market session, it could dip toward the 3-day moving average, so traders should be mindful of this possibility. However, if gold maintains its strength and closes with another bullish candlestick, the 3-day moving average will move higher, reinforcing the uptrend.
On the 240-minute chart, the MACD and signal line have diverged significantly, reflecting the strong uptrend. Buying on dips remains effective, while selling should be avoided since RSI indicates overbought conditions. As gold's volatility is increasing, traders should consider adjusting contract sizes, using micro contracts, or lowering leverage to allow for wider stop-loss levels and better trade management.
■Trading Strategies for Today
Nasdaq - Bullish Market
-Buy Levels: 21680 / 21630 / 21580 / 21530 / 21465
-Sell Levels: 21770 / 21845 / 21890 / 22010 / 22055
Crude Oil - Range-bound Market
-Buy Levels: 72.90 / 72.40 / 72.00 / 71.40
-Sell Levels: 73.60 / 74.10 / 74.50 / 75.00
GOLD - Bullish Market(April)
-Buy Levels: 2845 / 2840 / 2831 / 2824
-Sell Levels: 2860 / 2866 / 2870
These strategies apply only during pre-market hours. Profit-taking and stop-loss levels are as follows: Nasdaq: 15 points, Oil and Gold: 20 ticks.
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2025-01-30 - priceactiontds - daily update - nasdaqGood Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: 1h 20ema is flat as your first girlfriend. Don’t over analyze this trading range. 50% of it is around 21560 and we are seeing bulls buying dips, taking the stairs while bears violently crash the elevator down in between. Will likely see a bigger impulse tomorrow or Monday. I have no bigger opinion on which side will get it.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 21300 - 21780
bull case: Bulls need to close the big gap to 21900 and maybe some points above to get all the stops and turn the market truly neutral again. For now bears are defending it well, which is bad for the bulls. Bulls have going for them that they are printing higher highs and higher lows and are trading above the daily 20ema but as long as the gap stays open, they are not doing enough.
Invalidation is below 21400.
bear case: Bears only argument is the open gap to 21900 but other than that, they are fumbling it again. If try get to 21450 or below tomorrow and fail again to print lower lows below 21350, odds favor the bulls to rally hard into the weekend.
Invalidation is above 21900.
short term: Neutral as can be. 21560 is my mid point for this and mean reversing was profitable the past 2 days.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-01-27: High’s are most likely in. Any short with stop 22200 is good. I’d like to see 20000 over the next 2-3 weeks.
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Buying 21450 or selling above 21700 has been good the past 2 days. Do it until it clearly is not working anymore.
NQ: 130th trading session - recapDon't got much to say about today, very uneventful & boring, see y'all tomorrow
Technical Analysis of the Nasdaq Future – January 2025The analysis of key levels for the Nasdaq future suggests that the low recorded on January 27, 2025, at 20,763 marks the beginning of a quarterly cycle. If this level holds, it could trigger a sequence of positive daily bars, confirming the bullish structure. However, there are two additional key levels to monitor in order to validate the strength of this trend.
Key Levels to Watch
Primary Support – 20,763
This level represents the cyclical low of the new quarterly cycle.
Holding this level is crucial for maintaining the bullish setup.
Intermediate Support – 20,980 (former structural resistance)
This level corresponds to the structural high of July 11, 2024, and July 24, 2024.
It was a significant resistance in 2024 and now acts as a strategic support.
Holding above this level would confirm that the 2025 market remains above 2024 levels.
50-Period Exponential Moving Average (EMA 50) – 21,346
This dynamic technical level serves as the first warning signal of weakness if breached.
A drop below this level could introduce bearish pressure, jeopardizing the bullish setup.
Operational Conclusions
Maintain a bullish bias as long as the price remains above 20,763.
21,346 (EMA 50) is the first warning level: a break below it could indicate weakening momentum.
20,980 is the key support to confirm that the market is consolidating above the 2024 highs.
The overall outlook remains positive, with a confirmed bullish structure as long as these levels hold. A potential break below 20,763 would compromise the quarterly cycle structure and require a reassessment of the technical scenario.
MNQ!/NQ1! Day Trade Plan for 01/30/25MNQ!/NQ1! Day Trade Plan for 01/30/25
📈 21748 & 21885.25 (NEXT ZONES: 21807-21917, 22027-22137)
📉 21473.50 & 21336.25 (NEXT ZONES: 21477-21367, 21257-21147)
Like and share for more daily ES/NQ levels 🤓📈📉🎯💰
(💎: IF THERE IS NOT MUCH VOLATILITY; FOCUS ON ZONES VERSES INDIVIDUAL PRICE LEVELS)
*These levels are derived from comprehensive backtesting and research, demonstrating over 90% accuracy. This statistical foundation suggests that price movements are likely to exceed initial estimates.*
Inverse FVG NQ Shorts and big lessonsI go over how I blew my funded account a few weeks ago and now I am making a comeback. I took 2 Trades today. 1 loss for -200 and a winner for about 600. It was an inverse fvg break of pml.
