2024-06-25 - priceactiontds - daily update - nasdaqGood Evening and I hope you are well.
nasdaq e-mini futures
comment: Bulls got their expected pullback but on the daily it’s an inside bar. We are in a trading range and the market is probing for the fair price currently. Bulls want back to the highs again and bears want a second leg down to test the big bull trend line 19500ish. I expect more sideways price action tomorrow because I don’t think bears want bulls to get above 20000 before a second leg down. Above 20050 I’m wrong and we will probably get a retest above 20200 before another leg down.
current market cycle: Max bullishness & peak bubble territory. Literally the peakiest of the peaks. Mother of all bubbles. Will end over the next weeks. —unchanged
key levels: 19700 - 20100
bull case: Daily inside bar for the bulls, which means trading range. The buying today was reasonably strong that bulls will try for 20000 tomorrow and if they can get above 20060ish, most bears will probably give up. Current small bull trend line from 19725 has to hold though.
Invalidation is below 19830.
bear case: Bears shorted new highs and despite the 1% gain, market was two sided. Bears also kept it below 20000 which is the obvious price that both sides will fight for. Bears would need to break the bull trend line from 19725 by either breaking below or sideways out of it. Since bulls are again in massive BTFD mode, sideways will probably the best bears can get tomorrow. If they fail at 20k, I don’t think they will fight for 20080 much harder and they could give up for a quick melt to 20200+ again.
Invalidation is above 20080.
short term: Neutral 19900-20000, bearish below, bullish above
medium-long term: This climactic blow off top was the grand finale of this bull trend. Perfect break above multiple patterns which I expect is a bull trap and we will test the various support lines next before the new bear trend will unfold over the next 3-9 months.
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Buying the double bottom bar 16 + 4. Bar 4 was a huge huge bar and you had to get long there.