NQ1! trade ideas
#202519 - priceactiontds - weekly update - nasdaqGood Day and I hope you are well.
comment: Not much changed last week so I do not change much of what I wrote then. Bulls want at least 20536 now and run all the stops from before the big sell-off. Bears are not doing anything at all, so bulls will likely get it. This could be a breakout-retest and I marked the area for that with the red rectangle. Small chance bears come around next week but for now itโs still too early to short. The bull wedge is about to break out over the next 1-2 days and if bulls stay above 19600, we should expect higher prices.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels for next week: 19000 - 21000
bull case: 20536 and then 21000. Those are the next targets and bulls are in full control of the market. The measured move from the buy spike at the lows is around 22350 and itโs possible that we get there. I think we need to see a pullback and how deep that will be. If we get only another sell spike and immediate buying for higher highs, we can also assume much higher prices. Above 21100 there is no reason not to go for 23000. Nothing of this changed to last week. Bulls preventing the bears from getting any decent pullback, which is uber bullish.
Invalidation is below 19100.
bear case: Problem for the bulls is, that we have not closed above the weekly 20ema for two weeks now and bears defending the prior lower high 20536. That was and will be my line in the sand next week. Gap close to it, we have no reason not to print a new ath but below19600 I think more bulls will give up, depending on the strength of the selling. As of now, nothing about the chart is bearish but one decent down day > -2% could change that.
Invalidation is above 20620ish.
short term: Neutral. Market went nowhere and trading on hope and fairy dust is not my thing. I wait.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-05-11: My most bearish target for 2025 was 17500ish. Now I assume we will be in a trading range 16000 - 23000 for much longer. Same update as for dax, I guess we could go down and sideways over the next weeks/months and then have another squeeze into year end. Stairs up, elevator down.
NQ Analysis - 11th May 2025Here is my analysis of NQ, a pair I do not trade and only very seldomly do analysis for.
I've been wanting to get into indices futures, so I will be doing more analysis on them in the future. I still have to learn about the contract sizes, average moves, etc.
- R2F Trading
Nasdaq -Bitcoinโs $104K Frenzy Steals Nasdaqโs ThunderAs Bitcoin surged to $104,350 (up 9.5% weekly), retail traders pivoted to crypto, leaving Nasdaqโs momentum muted despite Lyftโs 21% pop on buyback news .
Going forward, I will be interested to see if Nasdaq is lagging behind Bitcoin and we can see bullish price action up into premium PD arrays.
NQ 1W Following weeks before summerIn my opinion these are the key levels which we have to look at to determine short narrative. If we consider higher prices then I would prefer the grey fvg stay unfilled and retest the current weekly tail. After which we shall run up strongly through the imbalance and likely revisit 21k.
On the other hand if we anticipate slower growth or even consolidation, I would like to see these levels inverted for this case. Important to mention we ve got a large monthly candle tail which can be easily rebalanced to during the summer season when less volatility can appear, which will be seen in consolidation and further continuation later on
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NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 5/9/2025 SessionCME_MINI:NQM2025
- PR High: 20182.50
- PR Low: 20137.00
- NZ Spread: 101.5
No key scheduled economic events
Auction maintaining week range, holding in the highs
Session Open Stats (As of 12:55 AM 5/9)
- Session Open ATR: 555.12
- Volume: 33K
- Open Int: 260K
- Trend Grade: Bear
- From BA ATH: -10.9% (Rounded)
Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges)
- Long: 20954
- Mid: 19246
- Short: 16963
Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions.
BA: Back Adjusted
BuZ/BeZ: Bull Zone / Bear Zone
NZ: Neutral Zone
2025-05-08 - priceactiontds - daily update - nasdaqGood Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: Market closed where it opened, after the early rally from Globex to mid EU session and then another one after the US open bear trap. I could not believe that bulls would do another strong move up after such a rejection above 20250 but meh. Can they really do another tomorrow after yet another strong rejection? Until bears print lower lows, the answer is "probablyโ. Clear bull wedge and bears need to break below 19970 for more downside. If we stay above 20100 we can do higher highs until we ultimately hit 20536 or higher.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 19700 - 20600
bull case: Bulls printed two amazing rallies and they we not enough to make meaningful higher highs and accelerate upwards. Usually that price action would have been enough for more bears to give up but once market began to stall on new highs, bulls vanished and bears overwhelmed them. I donโt have much for the bulls tbh. 5 tries and they are still failing.
Invalidation is below 19100.
bear case: Bears need to break the bull wedge and print below 19970. Thatโs about it. The rejections from new highs are good but the follow-through is trash. Going below 19600 into the weekend is me next wet dream.
Invalidation is above 20400.
short term: Neutral. Bulls grinding but for how many more tries? If that is bad English, you can do you.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-04-20: My most bearish target for 2025 was 17500ish, given in my year-end special. We are +18% from the lows and I do think, once this turns again, it will easily be the short trade of the year.
trade of the day: Shorting new highs continues to print money.
NASDAQ 2m Chart PO3 Acc, Manip Dist - Last Hour Party?Even though today has been crazy think a little sanity has setup for a classic ICT AMD play.
As of writing this we are in Accumulation. Watch for what appears to be a run higher, that gets hammered.
The last hour of the trading day on the 2m chart crosses above the 75 SMA, maybe it's pump time?
Check it out, gimmi feedback.
Thanks!
Craig
NQ: 186th trading session - recapI really gotta reflect on this in my personal journal but spoiler: I probably should've taken that. Focusing on the minute details might be okay when looking for a S+ setup, but what about S / A setups? Plus, structure is really one of the least of things to worry about - well atleast on a concious level, subconciously it's probably on of the most important parts: Our brain IS wired for pattern recognition etc blah blah, I really do not know how to overcome that lmao