Elliott Wave Projects Zone where Russell (RTY) Rally May FailRussell 2000 (RTY) ended a 3 swing corrective rally from 10.13.2022 low at 2016.90 on 2.2.2023 high. From this level, the Index declines lower with internal subdivision as a 5 waves impulse Elliott Wave structure. Down from 2.2.2023 high, wave ((i)) ended at 1906.2 and rally in wave ((ii)) ended at 1970.10. The Index resumes lower in wave ((iii)) towards 1728.5 and wave ((iv)) rally ended at 1800.8. Final leg wave ((v)) ended at 1708 which completed wave 1 in higher degree. Rally in wave 2 is now in progress to correct cycle from 2.3.2023 high in 3, 7, or 11 swing before the decline resumes.
Internal subdivision of wave 2 is unfolding as a zigzag Elliott Wave structure. Up from wave 1, wave ((a)) ended at 1779.4 and pullback in wave ((b)) ended at 1750.40. Wave ((c)) higher is in progress as 5 waves. Up from wave ((b)), wave (i) ended at 1808.2 and wave (ii) pullback ended at 1785.30. Expect the Index to extend higher before it completes wave ((c)) of 2. Potential target higher is 100% – 161.8% fibonacci extension of wave ((a)). This area comes at 1821.4 – 1865.4 where the rally in Russell may fail and the Index starts to resume lower. As far as pivot at 2.2.2023 high at 2016.9 stays intact, expect rally to fail in 3, 7, or 11 swing for more downside.
RTY1! trade ideas
RTY UpdateAppears to be a complete pump and dump failure. I got bullish because of the buy volume the past couple of days, but it hit overbought on MFI and now is dropping. i think there's potential for it to stay oversold for a day or two when it gets there because it's dropping on much lower volume. Those that bought have to sell, and volume isn;t matching up yet.
RTY UpdateRSI oversold again, but I wouldn't consider going long until ES and NQ also go oversold.
ES MFI has a LONG way to go before it hits oversold. Plus the market gave up on the short squeeze and lost all interest in garbage stocks. PTON down 7% now. Friday is when funds rebalance their portfolios, and I'd imagine they'd want to get rid of garbage stocks and move to dividend stocks. Flight to safety trade tomorrow, I think. Problem is ES MFI needs to go down....
Russell breaks-out of rangeThe Russell2000 CME_MINI:RTY1! breaks-out of range defined on the weekly timeframe with an upper limit ~1890. Additional the 18EMA crosses the 200EMA, which is also a bullish sign. SInce the last two days were very bullish, a small reversal may occur and offer oppertunity to enter trade. Additionally the COT commercial index for NASDAQ signals a bullish direction (Since a comparison of las Swing Highs and Lows of NASDAQ and Russell) exhibits a stronger uptrend for Russell, the Russell may out perform the NASDAQ.
About the timing: SInce the last days were bullish, I would wait for a small reversal into the last support area 1900-1930.
SL: 1830 (prior swing low)
1. Target: 2032 (last major high)
RR:~1.75
Manage your risks and make your own decisions.
RTYH2023 02 MAR 2023 (Candle basics)Some candle basics that are worth revisiting.
It almost seems intuitive. A long wick can very well represent a drastic change of course. Using the 1 and 4 hour is usually the better time frames to use when looking for major changes in direction.
If you rely only on wicks on smaller time frames, you can be deceived so its important to start with the bigger time frame and wok your way down.
You can see the situation here with the current candles. This would be a bad place to short. It May continue down sure, but with candles like this, the probability of this going higher does increase.
Look for wicks at previous demand and supply zones.
Elliott Wave Projects Russell (RTY) Should Resume HigherCycle from 12.20.2022 low in Russell (RTY) ended with wave 1 at 2016.97 as a 5 waves impulse structure. The Index then pullback in wave 2. Subdivision of wave 2 is unfolding as a zigzag Elliott Wave structure. Down from wave 1, wave (i) ended at 1986.3 and wave (ii) ended at 2015.60. Wave (iii) ended at 1938.8, wave (iv) ended at 1984.20, and final leg wave (v) ended at 1906.20 which completed wave ((a)).
Rally in wave ((b)) ended at 1970.30 with internal subdivision as a double three Elliott Wave structure Up from wave ((a)), wave (w) ended at 1964.1 and dips in wave (x) ended at 1921.30. Wave (y) higher ended at 1970.30 which completed wave ((b)). The Index has resumed lower in wave ((c)) with internal subdivision as an impulse. Down from wave ((b)), wave (i) ended at 1931.3 and wave (ii) ended at 1968.60. Wave (iii) ended at 1885.4, and wave (iv) ended at 1921. Expect the Index to resume lower within wave (v) of ((c)) to complete wave 2. Potential target lower is 100% – 161.8% Fibonacci extension of wave ((a)), which comes at 1791 – 1860.