Elliott Wave Analysis: Russell-Small Caps May Face More WeaknessHello traders and investors!
Today we will talk about small caps - Russell 2000 Index in which we see nice and clean bearish setup, which means that Russell may face even more weakness in current risk-off sentiment.
From Elliott wave perspective Russell can be trading in bigger, higher degree A-B-C corrective decline, where wave C is still missing. We can see five waves of decline into first leg A, followed by a three-wave corrective rally in wave B, so wave C can be now in play.
From technical point of view, Russell made an impulsive drop from the highs and retraced perfectly back to the former wave 4 resistance area, from where we can already see sharp sell-off that can take us much lower, especially if breaks channel support line.
Well, seems like bears are still in control and we should expect more downside pressure in upcoming days/weeks, maybe even down to 1500 area, but firstly we want to see broken 1900 bearish confirmation level.
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RTY1! trade ideas
RTY1! - Weekly Market Update, 4/11Indicated areas of support (green) and areas of resistance (red) are ascending (rising) and descending (falling).
These areas indicated suggest support / resistance for the week of April 11 and either rise or fall based on their channel structure ascending or descending.
Please check back for any mid-week updates. Wishing you a profitable week ahead! Anthony Speciale
Small-cap attack from the short sideLike other stock indices, the Russell 2000 spent most of the first quarter of this year under pressure and then recovered somewhat in March.
With the DMI having bear crossed today, we are taking an aggressive stance and shorting the index at around 2047. We'll record the trade below as soon as it's entered.
RTY1! - Weekly Market Update, 4/4Indicated areas of support (green) and areas of resistance (red) are ascending (rising) and descending (falling).
These areas indicated suggest support / resistance for the week of April 4 and either rise or fall based on their channel structure ascending or descending.
Please check back for any mid-week updates. You can also follow me on my social networks and my website, all links are located below.
Wishing you a profitable week ahead! Anthony Speciale
Elliott Wave View: Russell Futures (RTY) Looking to End 5 WavesShort Term Outlook in Russell Futures (RTY) suggests the rally from February 24, 2022 low is in progress as a 5 waves diagonal Elliott Wave structure. Up from February 24 low, wave ((i)) ended at 2071.30 and dips in wave ((ii)) ended at 1911.80. From there, Index resumed higher in wave ((iii)) which ended at 2097. Internal subdivision of wave ((iii)) unfolded as a 5 waves impulse in lesser degree. Up from wave ((ii)), wave (i) ended at 2018.30 and pullback in wave (ii) ended at 1970.30. Index continued higher in wave (iii) towards 2086.90, dips in wave (iv) completed at 2047.90. Final leg higher wave (v) ended at 2097 which also completed wave ((iii)) in higher degree.
Pullback in wave ((iv)) ended at 2039.80 with internal subdivision as a zigzag Elliott Wave structure. Down from wave ((iii)), wave (a) ended at 2044.20, rally in wave (b) ended at 2063.40, and wave (c) lower ended at 2039.80. This completed wave ((iv)) in higher degree. Wave ((v)) is now in progress in 5 waves. Up from wave ((iv)), wave i ended at 2079.90 and pullback in wave ii ended at 2043. Near term, while Index stays above 2039.80, and more importantly above 1912, expect Index to extend higher in wave ((v)). As far as pivot at 1912.03 low stays intact, expect dips to find support in 3, 7, or 11 swing for more upside.
RTY1! Weekly Market Update, 3/28Indicated areas of support (green) and areas of resistance (red) are ascending (rising) and descending (falling).
These areas indicated suggest support / resistance for the week of March 28 and either rise or fall based on their channel structure ascending or descending.
Please check back for any mid-week updates. You can also follow me on my social networks and my website, all links are located below.
Wishing you a profitable week ahead! Anthony Speciale
Russell 2000 Futures -20% More$RTY1! lost 50 EMA support and racing to 100 EMA quickly on weekly, looks even uglier on daily as the pullback looks to be gaining momentum.
Next level of interest would be another -20% decline.
Last time this severe of a retreat was realized was March to May of 2020. The recovery was rapid given unprecedented amount of federal stimulus to prop the economy up.
Stimulus is not an option in the face of sharply rising prices with persistent inflation starting to rip across all sectors.
Markets shrugged off initial Fed communications and FOMC 25 bps rate hike, clearly reflecting lack of belief in Central Banks' conviction.
More volatility ahead as recession lurks in the wings and stagflation appears likely without regime change.
RTY UpdateLooks to me like the market just wants to bounce sideways, I hope that's the case because sideways rangebound trading is just about the easiest way to make money.
In any case, if you're still bullish, wait until MFI goes oversold before buying the dip. I woke up late today and missed the morning drop so staying out for now. Garbage stocks are tempting but I'll probably have to wait to see what happens tomorrow.
Might buy a few CHWY puts or something EOD if there's no afternoon rebound.
I told you guys short squeezes always run 3 or 4 days, looks like that's over. Could just go sideways though.
RTY1! - Weekly Update, 3/21Indicated areas of support (green) and areas of resistance (red) are ascending (rising) and descending (falling).
These areas indicated suggest support / resistance for the week of March 21 and either rise or fall based on their channel structure ascending or descending.
Please check back for any mid-week updates. You can also follow me on my social networks and my website, all links are located below.
Wishing you a profitable week ahead! Anthony Speciale
RTY1! - Weekly Market Update, 3/14Indicated areas of support (green) and areas of resistance (red) are ascending (rising) and descending (falling).
These areas indicated suggested support / resistance for Monday, 3/13/22 and either rise or fall based on their channel structure ascending or descending.
Please check back for any mid-week updates. You can also follow me on my social networks and my website, all links are located below.
Wishing you a profitable week ahead! Anthony Speciale
RTY ProjectionI thought this crap looked really familiar, here's the COVID rebound upside down.
COVID stocks now tanking much like the way they rose off the bottom, every earnings just gets worse and worse.
I maintain bearishness but watch out for the Fed next week. Also, just because garbage stocks are tanking doesn't mean they tank every day, you can't expect stocks to drop 10% 2 days in a row, which is why I dumped CHWY puts yesterday.
All foreign markets are already at pre-COVID levels which is why they bounced and pumped US futures. US market isn't there yet. NQ might not reach preCOVID levels because FAANG stocks (minus FB) are doing well, but small caps should all return back to pre COVID levels eventually. Some already have....
I no longer care if the weekly goes oversold, there's no appetite for garbage stocks. The weekly indicators stayed overbought for an extended time during the pump. Now everything is inverted.
Gonna be tough trading because the market will gap up more often than not since Europe already hit bottom.
RTY UpdateIt appears the market has lost all appetite for money losing "growth" stocks that aren't growing. My trade strategy is still valid, short garbage on any pops, they can pump futures but they can't make people buy. Let the algos hold the bag.
I think every garbage stock is going to SFIX it's way to single digits, just gotta avoid the pumps, remember the 3 day short squeeze rule (today was the 4th day, lol)
Euros are bullish and could pump futures, but I don't think gap direction matters if today is any indication. I think the market will be oversold for the Fed press conf Wed, so avoid holding a position Wed afternoon regardless of trend pattern.
This drop has nothing to do with Russia, it was DOCU that caused it. I expect a follow through Monday, though it might reverse in the afternoon. Liquidity for crap stocks disappearing quick, look at AFRM, SMSI, DOCU, etc