RTY and what I learn from my brotherI have not posted in few weeks and why is because I have working on new strategy. Everything I know of trading I learn from my brother honestly. He is the best trader I know and smartest person I know. He mentors me with trading. Much more in the past than now because I am a much better trader now. But he still helps me. He bankrolled my first trading account with 25000 USD and when I make this back I try and pay him back but he said keep it. Wow! I'm lucky. He is incredible with computers and he is a person that big companies hire to try and break in to their computers system and he finds the holes and weakness. (He got into a bit of teenage trouble for this, but he is very good man, now especially). He is also on tradingview but that is where I will leave it. Then he builds algorhythms that seal up the flaws. I don't pretend to understand. He also codes for trading strategies and I have the advantage of getting them no cost. but I digress. LOL
So I notice that after 6 months that my returns start to fade some. This is despite me not changing anything about my strategy. So I seek my brothers advice. I ask him if this is statistically significant or not. He did some analysis and said yes this is real and significant. When your strategy becomes less profitable the market has adjusted to your strategy and it is time to make some adjustments. He said he would give me the strategy he is using now, but I said nope let me figure this out. So I get to work and I come up with a strategy that uses a moving average, RSI and ADX/DI. No shapes or wedges, support or drawing. I like this.
I played around with my new strategy and use backtester that my brother uses. I find I can win almost 80% of trades with a risk reward of well over 3:!. I go to him and I say this can't be right. So he analyzed it too and came up with similar numbers. He said now for to forward test it for the real test. So over the past few weeks I did this and so did my brother. These are the results.
PuckBunny
total trades 72
wins 55
losses 17
win percentage 76%
reward to risk ratio: 3.53:1
Sortino ratio of 2.03
Brother Puckbunny
total trades 84
wins 69
losses 15
win percentage 82%
Reward to risk: 3.22:1
Sortino ratio 2.41
So of course he always beats me and I ask him how. he said he adjusted my moving average to change to longer or shorter depending on volatility. Thus more trades, more win percentage and more money. He gave me the indicator he built for this and make it dummy (me) proof by showing the sells and buys on chart.
An interesting part of this strategy is that the risk is quite large. In fact, in some trades the risk is 4 times more than potential reward. The thinking is that based on chance alone the price is much more likely to hit target than be stopped out. Add to this a directional bias and you have a winning strategy. the big risk is the opposite of what most of us were teach. However, he has built a safety being that he adjusts the stop in kind of a reverse trailing stop loss, based on how much below entry price is and volatility. So this big risk is rarely realized.
So I have been using this strategy for 1 week and I take 7 trades and win them all. Now this is my first one to post. You can see details on chart.
RTY long 2272 (you can see buy signal on chart)
stop loss 2166 (I know right?)
Let's see how this goes.
