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OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN / U.S. DOLLAR

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CNHUSD trade ideas

Update on the Chinese YuanA few months ago, I proposed USDCNH/USDCNY consolidating for a bit and then going higher, as such strong moves usually follow through. The Chinese economy looks extremely weak for multiple reasons, and I see no way that the CNH/CNY won't lose much of its value relative to the dollar. Technically it is ready for another strong move higher, and the fact that Pelosi is visiting Taiwan could be the catalyst for a breakout. Of course, I could be wrong, and the market has a pullback first. However, I think that would be a buy-the-dip opportunity. Going down to 6.6 would be a gift, and that's where I'd want to add to my long positions (short CNY). In my opinion, the market will take out the double top at 7.2$ first, maybe pull back, and then move significantly higher. However, my first target is a bit lower because I do some resistance there, as there was a breakdown that was never retested. Regardless of what your target is, the R/R here is tremendous.
Long
by BitcoinMacro
1
The USDCNH/USDCNY move was extraordinaryAs the Chinese economy was slowing even before the lockdowns, the strict lockdowns put a lot more pressure on the CNH/CNY. This created a huge divergence in the policies of the Fed and PBoC, as one was hiking and the other was cutting. For quite some time the USD was going up against most currencies, except the CNY... until one day the market fully reversed and rallied much higher. By looking back to the USDCNH price action over the last decade, we can see that the two times we got such huge rallies, the market initially pulled back, and then went higher. Now when we compare the duration of those rallies, their magnitude and how overbought the market got by using different metrics, they all look fairly similar as a whole. For example the first one from 2015 was longer and slightly larger than the current one, but the initial leg was brutal. The second one from 2018 was the largest and quickest, however the market wasn't that overbought and the move made more 'sense'. Therefore this move has the potential to be just like the previous two. In the short term I could easily see USDCNH trade back to 6.53-6.58, but my long term target is above the 7.2 double top. The same way the double top around 7 broke and the market went to 7.2, I expect the market to go above the 7.2 double top. No idea where could it top, but it is possible that we get a prolonged bull for USDCNH.
Long
by BitcoinMacro
USD/CNH:BUY From PREMIUM Area for a LONG Setup The USD in the last session, by the macro news, has a loose value against the EUR, this will affect all the pairs correlated, especially all the ones with the first denominator starting with USD. Today I want to talk about USD/CNH that comes from a long Bullish rally where in the last sessions it's inside an accumulation rectangle. We are looking to buy again here at a discount, around the 50% and 61.8% FIBO levels where the Dynamic trendline of the Bullish channel can work as additional support. The Alternative scenario will happen if the price will broke 78.2% Fibo and the Bullish channel will be invalidated.
Long
by FOREXN1
7
USDCNH probably going a lot higherA little while ago the PBOC lost control of their currency and we saw the US dollar rising exponentially. In the latest trade report from China Exports from China edged 0.3% lower yoy to USD 298.37 billion in October 2022, missing the market consensus of a 4.3% growth. This was the first decline in shipments since May 2020, amid poor overseas demand as cost pressures grew globally and supply disruptions lingered. There is a real chance that the US dollar could keep rising as the offshore renminbi CNH collapses further. China needs to export to the US to receive the US dollars, to then go out and buy stuff like Oil. This is why the Chinese and the Saudis earlier this year start to formulate a plan for China to buy direct with their own currency.
by Macrobriefing
Jackson impacting USDAfter an important Jackson, Powell consistent attempt at persuading (or forcing) equities higher is coming to an end and it is time for a round of chart updates across the board. This sort of tendency, which toys with the idea of tapering and rolling up purchases should be seen as such; USD shorts are increasingly less appropriate; but here the dominating factor between the two currencies is the transition to CBDCs and a race to the bottom. The well being and woes of China who are already miles ahead in their fourth beta test, will determine effectively who cancels the currency first. A very plausible move throughout 2020 since buyers remained hesitant to play the safety leg. I was hesitant to play the leg higher but this decision made things a lot easier. The correct course now is switching to a new course, this time an ABC sequence towards 7.31x (+13% from current levels) into 2022 to offer lasting protection, invalidation for this move will come below March 2018 lows (-3% from current levels).
Long
by ridethepig
10
USD/CNH set for fresh breakout as growth concerns intensifyThe USD/CNH is definitely worth watching as the recession narrative comes back to the forefront of investors' minds. The renewed weakness in the yuan has been mirrored in the price action of things like copper and China's stock market, which fell overnight despite US and European indices rallying. Fears over global growth intensified after China decided to postpone, without giving a reason, the release of its third quarter growth and industrial production figures that were due for publication this Wednesday. Analysts think that economic growth there has slowed to a new three-decade low of 3.3% compared to 4.9% recorded in the same period a year ago. But the fact that China has delayed the release of the data does not look good and investors are worried that the world’s second largest economy may have performed even poorer than those expectations. At the same time, the Fed has yet to indicate that it is ready to pivot to a more dovish stance. This is keeping the dollar bid. The USD/CNH has, in response, started to move higher again. It looks like a breakout above the September high is on the cards, as rates continue to print bullish characteristics.
Long
by FOREXcom
3
usdcnhUSD/CNH reached the big 0.7000 level – which was a potential scenario we first floated back in August the 16th. The pair is currently within its seventh consecutive month higher and supported by the divergent policies of the Fed and PBOC. The 2-year spread between US and China’s bond yields are soaring higher and USD/CNH prices are gladly following. With increased speculation that the Fed would not only raise rates by 100bp next week, but also raise them to 5% by March 2023, that comes as no surprise. And this is despite the PBOC’s attempt to stabilise their currency with cuts to their RRR (reserve requirement ratio) and withdrawing ¥200 billion. Still, were these measures not taken the USD/CNH likely be trading higher, and I’d argue that Beijing likely want a weaker currency anyway to boost growth via exports – much like the BOJ. The 4-houtr chart remains in a very strong uptrend, and after a daily close above 7.000 yesterday it has now respected that key level as support today. Resistance has been met at 0.7030 (a 76.8% Fibonacci projection from a longer-term bullish triangle), so we’re now waiting to see if it can hold above 7.000 – which is likely a pivotal level over the near-term. Should break back below 7.000 then bulls could seek bullish setups above the 6.9615 low, whereas a break above 7.0400 assumes bullish continuation and brings 7.1000 into focus.
Long
by DrGhanizadeh