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OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN / U.S. DOLLAR

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CNHUSD trade ideas

Typical Long USDCNH breakout playUSD tightening policy vs CNH easing policy Inflation is like an illness, and medicine needs to be tailored to the specific problem. Both countries policies are deployed to aid individual domestic economy. And right now, the Fed has no control over the main driver of rising prices, however data suggest that domestic economy allows for Fed to press on tightening policies while closely monitoring signs of industrial recession. On the other hand, China is behind inflation and GDP target, and PBOC has reiterate on easing monetary policies to focus on lowering cost of covid controls while stimulating effective demands. We expect to see more fiscal aid coming from Chinese government in second half 2022 to support economic growth. Upcoming U.S PMI and CPI data will give more colors to dollar strength, with stronger data pointing to dollar strengthening together with more liquidity assistance by PBOC, we are likely to see short term USDCNH strengthening towards 6.9x over the next few months; in line with forward premium rate follow by USDCNH retracement in late 2022 due to peak inflation and China domestic recovery leading the economy. We expect the release of China’s fiscal policy to be the trigger for this possible upcoming breakout of USDCNH, with more injected liquidity into the system that weakens RMB. While dollar side movement had been somewhat priced for 75bps next Fed meeting together with projected Fed Dot Plot, the remaining moving factor ceteris paribus shall fall on RMB side of story.
Long
by ChuaChangYi
UNPOPULAR OPINION USDCNHThings you should not bet against and one major of them is commodity currencies. I have done research based on sentiments and everyone is looking for a crisis out of china to be break its market, especially in the housing market. This is my personal view based on a group of commodity currencies a reversal in all of them in almost certain. Will this push for a second wave of inflation "YES" not likely to be felt a few year is monetary policies reverse which I see them doing, but if they become more aggressive then risk of uncertainty is extremely high also Risk of emerging markets could be far worse that we imagine. Long commodities and commodity currencies.
Short
by Beclinks_Capital
USDCNH 11th JULY 2022Apart from the very aggressive increase in interest rates by the US central bank (The Fed), the recession issue has also made the US dollar a safe-haven choice. The Fed until last June has raised interest rates 3 times with a total of 150 basis points to 1.5% - 1.75%. This month, the world's most powerful central bank will again increase by 50 - 75 basis points, and by the end of the year interest rates are projected to be in the range of 3.25% - 3.5%. This certainly supports the strengthening of the US dollar. USD is predicted to continue to strengthen for at least the next 3 months.
Long
by DNP-FX
2
USD/CNH Falling Wedge May Hint at Uptrend ResumptionThe US Dollar has been rising against the Chinese Yuan in June so far. On the 4-hour chart, USD/CNH appears to be carving out a bullish Falling Wedge chart formation. A breakout above, with resistance as the 23.6% Fibonacci extension at 6.7304, opens the door to perhaps revisiting the May high at 6.8375. Otherwise, a turn back lower towards 6.6131 would keep the Yuan on a slow and steady appreciation course against the US Dollar within the boundaries of the Falling Wedge. FX_IDC:USDCNH
Long
by QM_Dubrovsky
USDCNH LONGBased on the current retracement to meet the previous Monthly High, We could say that this month has a Wick to fill. -The Lower wicks From the previous Two weeks formed a Higher Low and a Bullish reversal pattern that we can observe when we go into the Lower Timeframes. - In the Daily Timeframe, We can observe strong Bullish candles that can be used to confirm the Bullish Continuation through the Daily Timeframes. With all this confluence based on the Top-Down approach, we could therefore look for an entry on the lower timeframes, mine would be based on the H4 TF with the expectation of a long move towards the next Key Level, which is the top wick on the Weekly Timeframe.
Long
by SpaceWalkerUG
USDCNY 31st MAY 2022Asian shares erased early losses in Tuesday afternoon trade, as signs that China's economic pain may be gradually easing amid the easing of COVID-19 restrictions overshadowed broader investor concerns about a global inflation shock. Also lifting sentiment in the Asian region were details of Beijing's new policy support, which includes cash grants to hire fresh graduates and support for internet companies that list overseas. China's official PMI for May showed factory activity continued to decline but at a slower pace than in April. USDCNH APRIL 2022 USDCNH MARCH 2022
Long
by DNP-FX
USD/CNH May Resume Broader Uptrend as China Faces Growth WoesThe US Dollar may regain its footing against the Chinese Yuan amid favorable fundamental headwinds. China's zero-Covid policy has been weighing on local economic output. Meanwhile, rising fears of a recession in the US are slowly weakening global growth expectations. This leaves China in a tricky spot, even if conditions open up locally. A slowing global economy could sap the demand for Chinese goods. Diverging monetary policy is also favoring the US Dollar against the Chinese currency. On the daily chart, USD/CNH has left behind a bullish Morning Star candlestick pattern. Further upside follow-through could open the door to further gains. That would place the focus on the May high at 6.8376. Otherwise, clearing immediate support at 6.6480 exposes the Mat low at 6.6119 as the 50-day Simple Moving Average nears.
by QM_Dubrovsky