USDCNH VERTICAL LEAPFundamental Insight:
- PBOC Easing Mode
- Zero covid lockdown and Increasing new strain case
- Housing market problems
- Forced regulation on big techs
- King dolla is king
CNHUSD trade ideas
UNPOPULAR OPINION USDCNHThings you should not bet against and one major of them is commodity currencies. I have done research based on sentiments and everyone is looking for a crisis out of china to be break its market, especially in the housing market.
This is my personal view based on a group of commodity currencies a reversal in all of them in almost certain. Will this push for a second wave of inflation "YES" not likely to be felt a few year is monetary policies reverse which I see them doing, but if they become more aggressive then risk of uncertainty is extremely high also Risk of emerging markets could be far worse that we imagine.
Long commodities and commodity currencies.
USDCNH BULLISH FLAGInteresting possible bullish set up on USDCNH ahead of today US annual June CPI at 14:30 GMT+2
Buy entries should be triggered in case of hourly session close above the downtrend line of yesterday’s high and confirm the break of the bullish flag continuation pattern, with stop loss below today low at 6.7220 and target around 6.7744, giving an overall R/R of 2.
USD/CHN gets ready for another runA continuation congestion is in the late stages for the Dollar to scream another upleg against the Offshore Yuan
THE HOLY GRAIL SIGNAL measured moved Another fruitful moves seen on this market as mentioned 2 years ago over 5000 pips up !
This update is an continuation of the move up for a measured move swing of high probability
Putting price at 7.0
Where we’ll see if we are going higher or the completion of the bear market either way it’ll b a move to watch n everlasting
USDCNH 11th JULY 2022Apart from the very aggressive increase in interest rates by the US central bank (The Fed), the recession issue has also made the US dollar a safe-haven choice.
The Fed until last June has raised interest rates 3 times with a total of 150 basis points to 1.5% - 1.75%.
This month, the world's most powerful central bank will again increase by 50 - 75 basis points, and by the end of the year interest rates are projected to be in the range of 3.25% - 3.5%. This certainly supports the strengthening of the US dollar. USD is predicted to continue to strengthen for at least the next 3 months.
Chinese Yuan Threatens Triangle Support. Is a Break Down Near? USD/CNH eyeing a possible break below triangle support, which may see prices break down, potentially to the rising 100-day SMA.
USDCNH Trading The TriangleIn this update we review the recent price action in USDCNH and identify the next high probability trading opportunity and price objectives to target
USDCNH Expected Outcome: 0.19% IncreasePrice pulled back to the horizontal support level, EMA 10 support level, and EMA 20 support level. Enter a market execution order and buy limit order.
USDCNHTwo possible moves for USDCNH. Given the current covid situation in China, and the hawkiness of the Fed, it is likely for the ccy pair to move upwards
Short USDCNH Multiple time frame analysisH4: the price fall down from strong supply zone
h1: the price break up trend structure
m15: the price break up trend structure
Waiting for the pullback and make a short position
Target : R:R 1:2.6
USD/CNH Falling Wedge May Hint at Uptrend ResumptionThe US Dollar has been rising against the Chinese Yuan in June so far.
On the 4-hour chart, USD/CNH appears to be carving out a bullish Falling Wedge chart formation. A breakout above, with resistance as the 23.6% Fibonacci extension at 6.7304, opens the door to perhaps revisiting the May high at 6.8375.
Otherwise, a turn back lower towards 6.6131 would keep the Yuan on a slow and steady appreciation course against the US Dollar within the boundaries of the Falling Wedge.
FX_IDC:USDCNH
USDCNH LONGBased on the current retracement to meet the previous Monthly High, We could say that this month has a Wick to fill.
-The Lower wicks From the previous Two weeks formed a Higher Low and a Bullish reversal pattern that we can observe when we go into the Lower Timeframes.
- In the Daily Timeframe, We can observe strong Bullish candles that can be used to confirm the Bullish Continuation through the Daily Timeframes.
With all this confluence based on the Top-Down approach, we could therefore look for an entry on the lower timeframes, mine would be based on the H4 TF with the expectation of a long move towards the next Key Level, which is the top wick on the Weekly Timeframe.
USDCNH High-risk Short ScalpUSDCNH High-risk Short Scalp. TPs on chart. 100-200x leverage. Move SL on TP: 1.5 offset, 0.5 step.
USDCNY 31st MAY 2022Asian shares erased early losses in Tuesday afternoon trade, as signs that China's economic pain may be gradually easing amid the easing of COVID-19 restrictions overshadowed broader investor concerns about a global inflation shock. Also lifting sentiment in the Asian region were details of Beijing's new policy support, which includes cash grants to hire fresh graduates and support for internet companies that list overseas.
China's official PMI for May showed factory activity continued to decline but at a slower pace than in April.
USDCNH APRIL 2022
USDCNH MARCH 2022
USDCNH Forecast: 0.88% IncreaseUSDCNH price closed above the trend line. Break out candlestick engulfs previous candlesticks. Attributes in the chart indicates a bullish market.
USD/CNH May Resume Broader Uptrend as China Faces Growth WoesThe US Dollar may regain its footing against the Chinese Yuan amid favorable fundamental headwinds.
China's zero-Covid policy has been weighing on local economic output. Meanwhile, rising fears of a recession in the US are slowly weakening global growth expectations. This leaves China in a tricky spot, even if conditions open up locally. A slowing global economy could sap the demand for Chinese goods. Diverging monetary policy is also favoring the US Dollar against the Chinese currency.
On the daily chart, USD/CNH has left behind a bullish Morning Star candlestick pattern. Further upside follow-through could open the door to further gains. That would place the focus on the May high at 6.8376.
Otherwise, clearing immediate support at 6.6480 exposes the Mat low at 6.6119 as the 50-day Simple Moving Average nears.
Head and shoulder formed! There might huge short selling pressure will build up as price has formed head and shoulder. I'm positive on shorting this pair. Follow me if you found this helpful
USDCNH Update - Major Breakout UnderwayIf you bought this pair when I first featured it here, you have made money. If you were leveraged 50:1 - which - often is the case in forex, you have likely returned more (% returned) in this trade than what you can expect in three years of investing in a vanilla benchmark-tracking 401K.
I remain long USDCNH and will continue to cover it for the foreseeable future.
Something to consider: such a rapid deterioration of the Yuan is reason to speculate the Chinese economy is becoming increasingly decoupled from anything that resembles the last 10-12 years of price action. For example, if the Yuan were to surpass $7.20, I would start to suspect two possible (again I can't "predict" anything) situations:
1. The Chinese economy in severe distress (hopefully not).
2. Intentional disregard for participation in the global economy, as it exists currently (hopefully not).
Again, we are not there YET; all we can do is read the chart and analyze information / data as it becomes available.
Pray for peace.
God Bless
USDCNH WILL HIT TO 14 IN THE NEXT 2 YEARSIts based on a very simple reason, that is Xi's personality. the first target is 7.2. and then. opps...Time will prove everything.
