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OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN / U.S. DOLLAR

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CNHUSD trade ideas

USDCNH | Perspective for the new weekIt has been months since I published any speculation as our last publication on this pair saw us bag over 1,000pips ( see link below for reference purposes). China is on the brink of launching its CBDC - Digital Yuan. To facilitate its smooth launch, the digital yuan had to undergo several testings. In line with this, the government in Shenzhen, a metropolis in China, has disclosed plans to distribute 20 million digital yuan (approximately $3 million) to the city’s residents... This could be an exciting development for investors as the Yuan continue to rise against the Greenback in recent times. Tendency: Downtrend ( Bearish ) Structure: Breakdown | Supply & Demand | Trendline | Harmonic (AB = CD) Observation: i. Y6.95000 level remains my key level as this zone shall be the yardstick for selling opportunity in the coming week(s). ii. Successful Breakdown of Key level at the beginning of the new year is a sign that the Yuan will continue to appreciate. iii. Presently experiencing traders profiting from the boom that began the year, a correction into 61.8/78.6% is on my radar for a trading opportunity. iv. Suspected ABCD pattern parameters explained below; a. Impulse A-to-B is expected to be in harmony with the potential C-to-D leg. b. The B- to-C leg is at 61.8% currently (with a possible 78.6% in the future) Fibonacci retracement of the A-to-B leg. c. The C-to-D leg is expected to fall within 127.2 - 1.414% Fib. ext. of the A-to-B move. Trading plan: SELL confirmation with a minimum potential profit of 1,000 pips. Risk/Reward : 1:3.5 Potential Duration: 10 to 20 days NB: This speculation can be considered to make decisions on lower timeframes. Watch this space for updates as price action is been monitored. Risk Disclaimer: Margin trading in the foreign exchange market (including foreign exchange trading, CFDs, etc.) has a high risk and is not suitable for all investors. The content of this speculation (including all data) is organized and published by me for the sole purpose of education and assistance in making independent investment decisions. All information herein is for your reference only and I take no responsibility. You are hereby advised to carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objective, risk tolerance level, and consult your independent financial adviser as to the suitability of your situation prior to making any investment. I do not guarantee its accuracy and is not liable for any loss or damage which may result directly or indirectly from such content or the receipt of any instruction or notification therewith. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Short
by darcsherry
FX Update: Chinese renminbi opens 2021 with a jolt higherSummary: The market tried to set-off the reflationary fireworks as the first session of 2021 got underway, but while big moves up in some commodities and in particular crypto assets opened the year with a bang, the only move that is sticking well as the market rolls into North American hours is the move in the Chinese currency higher after weeks of quiet at the end of 2020. What gives? FX Trading focus: USDCNH plunges at a rapid clip – what gives? The Chinese renminbi jolted higher on the first session of the New Year, a surprise move of considerable magnitude, and one that is no accident and sends a message – but what message? Arguably, the CNY strengthening is merely playing a bit of relative catchup with other US dollar crosses, as for example, AUDCNY exactly touched the 2020 high again on the last days of 2020 before dipping on this CNY rally. Perhaps that is the very message, that China wants to manage its currency in such a way as to keep it relatively strong, if not so strong as to break the range against the official basket, nor against any major trading partner By that way of thinking, then, AUDCNH might be a low beta trade for further CNH resilience and strength. This would be part and parcel of its strategic move to attract capital via a strong and stable currency and higher policy rates, allowing it to absorb demand from global Covid-19 stimulus and the luxury to keep a relatively tight policy to allow some scale of deleveraging that it never really pursued in previous cycles of recent date. The other argument might be that in the reflationary world that threatens from both Covid-19 supply disruptions and the arrival of fiscal forcing, that China wants to maintain a firm currency to guard against rising price pressures from commodity imports. In any case, the focus from here will eventually shift on whether China plans to allow the renminbi to pull higher above the range high that marked the top in recent weeks – coinciding with two prior peaks in the last couple of years – and that level is only about a percent above the current level. Chart: USDCNH After a few weeks in which the USDCNH exchange rate largely ignored the weaker US dollar, the renminbi jolted higher to start the year in one of the biggest moves in recent memory and below the largely symbolic 6.50 area – never a particular chart level in focus in other cycles. I’ll hang on to the view that China is happy to keep the renminbi at the strong side of the range in the official basket without a major isolated appreciation (this view encouraged recently when the CNY stopped appreciating at the twice-touched area near 96.0), but will watch closely if that basket level moves above 96.0, which could suggest a willingness to allow it to appreciate further to the next major high around 98.0. Eventually, it will be interesting to see how the US-China relationship develops under a Biden presidency and how the exchange rate would react to higher inflation as well as a deepening dis-engagement of the two economies. Georgia run-off races tilting Democratic? After the terrible experience of believing in what proved horrible poll quality during the 2020 election, I am reluctant to even bring polls into the discussion, but there has been a move in favour of Democrats in the latest series of polls in Georgia, suggesting that both of the seats in the Senate run-offs there could yet go Democratic. This would create a 50-50 split in the US Senate that would allow VP Harris to cast the tie-breaking vote. These elections tomorrow are pivotal stuff, though far less so than had Biden won a commanding majority in both houses, as key conservative Democratic senators could still make themselves suddenly very important as key swing votes for further fiscal measures or if the climate agenda is seen as too radical for local constituents (thinking especially of West Virginia Democratic senator Joe Manchin here). Still, the bipartisan attitude toward bigger spending has witnessed a massive shift since the Obama years, and cleverly crafted, centrist initiatives from a Biden administration could find support from a cohort of more traditional Republicans with or without the two Georgia seats, a smaller population than they were formerly, but still not banished from existence by four years of Trump. The market’s initial read if the Democrats take both Senate run-off seats will be USD negative on the presumption of more fiscal stimulus potential). John Hardy Head of FX Strategy Disclaimer The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website. This content is not intended to and does not change or expand on the execution-only service. 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by Saxo
USD/CNH year in review: O$6.9672 H$7.1965 L$6.4885 C <=>$6.5060USD/CNH year in review: O $6.9672 H $7.1965 L $6.4885 C <=> $6.5060 Do your own due diligence, your risk is 100% your responsibility. You win some or you learn some. Consider being charitable with some of your profit to help humankind. Small incremental steps work : If you double a penny a day for a month it = $5,368,709. Good luck and happy trading friends... *3x lucky 7s of trading* 7pt Trading compass: Price action, entry/exit Volume average/direction Trend, patterns, momentum Newsworthy current events Revenue Earnings Balance sheet 7 Common mistakes: +5% portfolio trades, risk management Beware of analysts motives Emotions & Opinions FOMO : bad timing Lack of planning & discipline Forgetting restraint Obdurate repetitive errors, no adaptation 7 Important tools: Trading View app!, Brokerage UI Accurate indicators & settings Wide screen monitor/s Trading log (pencil & graph paper) Big organized desk Reading books, playing chess Sorted watch-list Checkout my indicators: Fibonacci VIP - volume Fibonacci MA7 - price pi RSI - trend momentum TTC - trend channel www.tradingview.com
by Options360
USD CNH BUY (US DOLLAR - CHINESE YUAN)Hi there. Price is forming a reversal pattern to change its direction. These are the fundamental reasons for a possible USD/CNH bullish scenario: Sentiment shifts: Bullish scenario: A breakdown in US stimulus talks and a possible towards a government shutdown; FDA rejecting or postponing the approval of the Pfizer vaccine; a breakdown in Brexit talks with no deal by EU summit. In this scenario we would expect to see downside in equities across the board, with US equities expected to fall more if we see US stimulus talks break down and more downside for EU equities if we see Brexit talks collapse and upside in the dollar across the board. Strong equity sell offs are usually accompanied with some support for the US dollar as the world’s reserve currency and with its safe haven status as well as Japanese yen and Swiss franc .
by thunderpips