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OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN / U.S. DOLLAR

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CNHUSD trade ideas

ridethepig | USDCNH Long Term Macro Playbook📍 USDCNH An interesting few days for those in Chinese rates, a 100bp move in the front end, what an express train move!! Never seen anything like this before and shows the power from vol in repo fixing. PBOC will want to keep the pressure off equities, as they have been doing for some time now and hence we can see some recycling of those longs come out and make their way into bonds. This will be their only way to defend and help keep the moves to the downside contained and measured in USDCNH. In spite of the wide consolidation in Chinese Equities lately, China will be a major winner in particular from the oil crash as they were loading on the lows. The cheaper Chinese energy bill will help offset the next 12-18 month crisis. A smart move with the Oil CNY contracts as it essentially creates another mattress on the balance sheet. Later this will be described as the 'only move' that made sense and rightly so. Of course, aggressive dollar devaluation for the medium and long term is the new and decisive playbook. Sellers are happy to have held the highs, but their remaining ammunition must now make a significant impression. Those following the details of this 3rd impulsive wave may need to pull a trick or two after such a difficult battle. In any case, a test of 6.46 will be quite heart rendering, much better a deep retracement than a shallow breakup at this point .
Short
by ridethepig
1
The US Dollar is going to zero. Any PB is an invitation to sell.The USD pyramid scheme continuing its road to zero after a short term recovery. As I said back then - idk when weeks ago several times - any usd "recovery" is just an entry to short the ponzi at a good price. I would not pick any lame tiny pullback and I would have a small stop but not too small I can't (can anyone?) be precise. But I think unless the USD crashes hard, I mean REALLY hard, I don't think there will be a mega brutal recovery. So I'll bet on it when it bounces. Not sure yet but a stop of 1 ATR or less it what I'd go for it will depend on many things. By the way I dropped the indicators that I said I used a few days ago, that did not last long 😂 They get in the way and are really annoying, they do not serve any purpose honestly they just looked good. Obviously I use the ATR to sort of measure volatility and help size stops but I don't need it on the chart getting in the way. Other USD pairs are good too but I think USDCNH could end up real violent. It is accelerating since June. It is just getting more and more painful for whoever is foolish enough to be a bull (most likely the 3 retail traders that trade this pair are all furiously fighting the trend) The chinese currency had its biggest daily rise since 2005... China dumping its USD bags, foreign investors buying their currency and bonds. The chinese government are not as eager to devalue their currency and are willing to let it get stronger now. The pair of the world largest 2 economies (eurozone doesn't count you know what I mean and I'm not even sure they are up there right now) has a daily volume of $200 billion last I checked. It has an amazingly low retail trader participation, something like 20 times less than absolute garbage NZDCHF, and seems likely alot of potential investor are not paying attention (but now they heard about it, keeps mooving lower and biggest move ever - since it unpegged to the usd 15 years ago), funds, private investors... All the trend following sheep will join at some point. If retail paid attention they would buy due to low IQ but they are not relevant enough to make a pullback I do not think (and they'd sell the second it goes up rofl). Might not get good pullbacks yikes I hate when this happens. When it gets too extended no point even looking for one... The more it goes down the more money manager take notice. If it keeps going down because of a multi year fundamental reason at some point even Warren Buffett will come sell/buy. The USDCNH is just leading so hard It's going to zero. It's finally going to zero. 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Short
by MrRenev
7
USDCNH: Time To Bounce Up!The price has reached the lowest point for the first half-year. Due to the relationship between the two counties. Recently, the price fluctuates rapidly, however, this situation could be ending. As we can see, the price broke out from the lower band of the Bollinger Bands, which means the price could meet pressure from the Bollinger Bands here. The MACD and RSI do not show any significant changes, however, we still can see some hints here. The blue line of MACD started to go up, and the RSI recovered from the oversold area. Let’s expect the price to go up
by traderscolo-en