CNHUSD trade ideas
Going short on USDCNH, trendline brokenUSDCNHseems to be bouncing off the major 4h key level with visible double top pattern. It created a nice trendline which was now broken with enough volume.
USD/CNH Reaches Year-to-date HighOver the past 2 months, CNH has appreciated about 4.4% against the US dollar, reflecting the differences in monetary policies in the world's two largest (and competing) economies.
Yesterday's statistics showed a decrease in inflation in the US, but its level is still far from the target values. It is expected that the Fed at today's meeting will take a break after 10 consecutive increases in the key interest rate, keeping the prospect of raising it until the end of the year. The decision will be published at 21:00 GMT+3, followed by Powell's press conference at 21:30.
In China, the central bank lowered key short-term interest rates on Tuesday. It is expected that rates on medium-term loans may be lowered on Thursday. Barclays predicts that the Central Bank of China will cut rates every quarter in 2023, as economic growth after the lifting of restrictions due to Covid is disappointing.
With China stimulating the economy and curbing inflation by shrinking the US economy, USD/CNH hit its highest since the start of the year, trading near 7.18 today. Thus, the quote is fixed above the level of 7.15, which acted as resistance at the beginning of the month.
The USD/CNH chart shows that the rate is moving within the ascending channel along its median line. The WSJ writes that the difference in US and Chinese monetary policy may continue to put pressure on the weakening yuan.
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Japan Weakens - Invest in USDJPY Now!As you may have heard, Japan's economy has been experiencing some weakening lately. The country's GDP has declined for the past two quarters, and its government is struggling to stimulate growth. In addition, the Bank of Japan has been keeping its interest rates at harmful levels, putting pressure on the yen.
But what does this mean for us as traders? Simply put, it means that now is the perfect time to invest in USDJPY. Moreover, with Japan's economy weakening, the yen is also expected to weaken, making the USDJPY pair an excellent option for traders looking to make some profits.
So, what are you waiting for? Take advantage of this opportunity and invest in USDJPY now! You could make some serious gains with the right strategy and some luck.
As always, I recommend researching and analyzing before making any investment decisions. However, if you're looking for a good investment opportunity, USDJPY is worth considering.
I hope you found it informative and helpful.
#USDCNH H4 Trading The Bullish SequenceIn this update we review the recent price action in the USDCNH and identify the next high probability trading opportunity and price objective to target
Bearsafter a xlear change of character occurred we are looking to take a deep sell as sson as price hits our area of interest
Chinese Yuan bearish for stocks?Looking at this chart it does seem to be that there could be a relationship between the yuan and the S&P. The strong bull market since 2020 coincided with a strong Yuan and since then things took a down turn roughly at the same time. The Yuan has recently sharply decreased against the USD.
Usd/Cnh Head And Shoulders Reversal Pattern And News Sell SetupUsd/Cnh printed a reversal pattern on the hour 4 time frame
The Reversal Pattern is called the Head And Shoulders Reversal Pattern.
News in 3 hours is expected to be super good for the Chinese Currency...
So what is the plan...
We have a sell signal on the hour 1 time frame... We can sell now very small and hold the trade to the take profit.
USDCNH - Bearish Rectangle Pattern - BEARISH CONTINUANCEUSDCNH forming bearish rectangle pattern. USDCNH may continue its bearish trend.
USDCNH - BULLISH DIVERGENCE Bullish divergence was found and broke the previous lower high and form higher high
USDCNH final jumpUSDCNH is still trading within the ascending channel, which validates the uptrend. It is possible that the price will break below, for as long as it holds, expect a short term rally.
USDCNH Could Go UP!USDCNH is making higher highs and seems very bullish without any divergence. So it could hit out TP!!!
USDCNH - Sideways movement at 1 hour time frameAnalysis reflects sideways movement of USDCNH at 1 hour time frame
To buy or to sellOverall price has been bullish on the 4h but atm price is at a 4h demand level so we’re waiting If price breaks the 5m demans and go
More bullish ot respects it and Continuing pushing for a sell
Difference - China Yuan and Offshore Yuan The Chinese yuan, also known as RMB, is the official currency of China. It is used both onshore in mainland China and offshore in international markets.
The offshore yuan, also known as the CNH (Chinese yuan - Hong Kong), is the version of the yuan that is traded outside of mainland China. It is traded in offshore financial centers, such as Hong Kong, Singapore, and London. The offshore yuan is not subject to the same restrictions and regulations as the onshore yuan.
The main difference between the onshore and offshore yuan is that the onshore yuan is subject to capital controls imposed by the Chinese government, while the offshore yuan is not subject to these same restrictions. This means that the offshore yuan is more freely tradable and can be used for a wider range of international transactions, such as international trade and investment, while the onshore yuan is more restricted in its use.
Offshore Yuan -
Standard-Size USD/Offshore RMB (CNH)
Outright:
0.0001 per USD increment = 10 CNH
MICRO USD/CNH FUTURES
0.0001 offshore Chinese renminbi per USD
CNH Option
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USD/CNH Monthly Options Contract Specs - CME Group
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Frequently Asked Questions: USD/CNH options - CME Group
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• What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker.
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The USD, China and the De-dollarization challengeThe US dollar has maintained its status as the world's dominant reserve currency for decades, thanks to its perceived security, resilience, and the depth and liquidity of US markets. Despite concerns surrounding the dollar's hegemony, it remains a crucial player in global transactions. Meanwhile, China's economy faces challenges, such as growing provincial government debt, an expanding real estate bubble, and potentially inflated GDP numbers. In addition, China's need for US dollars and the push for de-dollarization by countries like Russia, China, Iran, and Saudi Arabia have gained attention. This analysis will explore these issues in depth and examine why moving away from the US dollar system is complex.
China's increasing debt, falling real estate prices, and the growth of its banking assets to around 55% of Global GDP are all causes for concern. The country's M2 money supply has grown at a 9% yearly rate, reaching HKEX:40 trillion, more than double its GDP. If China's GDP numbers are indeed inflated, as suggested by the Brookings Institution, this could exacerbate the problem. Moreover, the yuan (RMB) faces significant challenges in becoming a globally accepted reserve currency, primarily due to China's capital controls, illiquid markets, and authoritarian governance.
In contrast, the US dollar remains dominant in global central bank reserves and transactions. This is partly due to the dollar's resilience and the perception of the US's security and stability. Although reserves have shifted for countries with closer trade relations with China, such as Indonesia, Malaysia, Hong Kong, Singapore, and Chile, the US dollar remains the world standard for now.
The push for de-dollarization has gained momentum recently, particularly after the Russia-Ukraine conflict and Western sanctions against Russia. Countries like Russia, China, Iran, and Saudi Arabia seek to move away from the US dollar system to reduce their dependency on the US economy and gain more control over their financial systems. However, moving away from the US dollar system is challenging for several reasons.
First, the US dollar's dominance in global markets ensures its continued importance in international trade. Even if countries like China and Russia attempt to shift away from the dollar, many other countries will likely continue to rely on it for their transactions, as it provides stability and liquidity.
Second, while the yuan is gaining prominence as a reserve currency, it still faces significant hurdles in becoming a globally accepted alternative to the US dollar. China's capital controls, illiquid markets, and authoritarian governance make it difficult for other countries to trust the yuan as a reliable reserve currency. As a result, it is unlikely to replace the US dollar on a large scale in the foreseeable future.
Third, OPEC members continue to price their oil in US dollars, despite the currency's decline relative to other world currencies. Economic, technical, and political factors prevent them from switching to other currencies or a basket of currencies. The benefits of such a switch are limited, and it would not benefit all OPEC members equally. Furthermore, the US will unlikely allow OPEC to disregard the dollar without consequences.
Finally, the BRICS nations (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) are reportedly considering creating a new currency to facilitate trade and promote de-dollarization. However, this plan faces several obstacles, such as political disagreements among the BRICS countries and convincing other nations to adopt this new currency. Additionally, the benefits of a new BRICS currency are uncertain, and it may not be enough to destabilize the US dollar's dominance in global markets.
In conclusion, while there are signs of a shift in the balance of global reserve currencies, it is premature.
Revised short for usdcnh. partly based on geopolitics.updated trend lines from previous idea with short position held for long term gains. Since I first looked at the idea a double top has formed which I have now put on my chart and have now reconfigured my initial trendline which now slightly resembles a downward wedge. zooming out you can see a double bottom reversal followed by double top reversal.
expecting a bounc off upper trendline into downward decline. Will be slow as usd tried to be pushed up
follow up on bearish usdcnhbounce off upper trendline for long term short. slow mover as usd tries to be driven up. double top pattern visible also.
