CNYUSD trade ideas
Potential Rallying; Predictive Model Eyes Bullish Targets #forexFriends,
PREDICTIVE/FORECASTING MODEL:
Predictive/Forecasting Model eyes the following BULLISH targets:
1 - TG-Hi = 6.5473 - 04 JUN 2015
and
2 - TG-Hix = 6.6721 - 04 JUN 2015
MARKET GEOMETRY:
A break > Point-3 of the background geometry would still see significant resistance to any advance, with a Wolfe Wave / Geo. potentially illustrating the change of a push back. If this occurred at Point-5, then a temporizing decline could occur down along the 1-4 Line. However, based on Geo's Off-Set Rule, a rallying significantly above Point-5 (exacting Point-5') would likely limit such pull back to the level of price Point-4 (circa 6.187).
MOMENTAL LINES:
Note the dominant lines throughout the chart, which form significant dynamic price-pacing supports and resistance. These are likely to play a role in the nascent geometry, as well as subsequent price advances.
OVERALL:
Bulls have defended their territory at the 6.187 level. This level may be temporarily violated, but invalidation of above analysis should come if and once price breaks-below/closes below Point-2 of the geometry, circa 6.1100.
Best,
David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Durango, Colorado - USA
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Twitter:
@4xForecaster
Twitter:
David Alcindor
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USD/CNY - Correction from 6.9366 coming to an end?The resent strength of the Chinese Yuan has cached the headlines lately, but my Elliott wave count suggest that the correction in wave (B) could be coming to an end in the cluster-area between 6.3625 - 6.3928.
As wave v of c of (B) has been the extended wave, we should expect a quick reversal once the low is in place.
Short-term a break above 6.5566 will be the first good indication that wave (B) has completed and wave (C) is developing, while a break above resistance at 6.6964 will be needed to confirm the corrective low is in place and a new impulsive rally to above 6.9366 is developing for a rally towards 7.2885.
USD/CNY - Correction from 6.9633 completed at 6.4355In my September 8 - 2017 post I said, that the correction in wave (B) from 6.9633 was coming to an end. The actual low for the (B) has proved to be at 6.4355 on that exact day. The rally that has followed has been both strong and impulsive. We still need a break above 6.5566 to confirm that the low has been seen, but it should just be a matter of time before a clear break above 6.5566 is seen for a continuation higher.
An inverse S/H/S bottom also can be seen and the neckline has already been broken, calling for more upside towards 6.6964.
Ultimately the ongoing wave (C) should break above 6.9633 for a rally towards 7.3585 where wave equality between wave (A) and (C) will be seen.
USDCNY. Filling the Mega Gap. Wave 5One of market wizards once told that to find the trend we should squeeze the chart.
Frankly speaking I thought USDCNY is in a correction before I squeezed the chart, the Monthly chart.
The pair had a Mega GAP in 1994.
It looks like we have an echo from that distant time in form of a downside impulse, which is filling the gap.
We could be in the last large wave down to hit the 5.8145 mark.
This idea is opposite to the primary market opinion of imminent devaluation of yuan.
USDCNY and 666Say what you want about the number, this latest dip was due to this pair's action. Trump V China trade war has currency implications written all over it or visa versa. High yield corp bonds also watching closely as a market indicator. Holiday in NK Tuesday, perhaps they will mark that with some actions? Watching, waiting, all sectors fragile right now. Only the perma bull pros are long stocks. This downtrend been happening for a while, bouncing now, let's see if it holds the 666 level.
CNY: CAPITAL OUT-FLOWING FROM CHINA TO PRESSURE ECONOMYThe long and medium term exchange rate target zones confirmed the weakening of CNY against USD, EUR, CHF, JPY and to confirm the capital out-flowing from the China economy in long-term.
The capital out-flowing has been hammering the economy in long term as confirmed by the long term and medium term GDP band. Although the inflation band seems to be flat in long term, however under pressure in medium term.
The pressure on the economy however will be limited and liquidity dry up less likely to experience. And at such, economic indicators remains manageable in long run.
CUP OF CHINESE COFFEE ANYONE?Probable nice CUP O´COFFEE Formation in the Yuan.
Devaluation has been happeningin steps of 150pips. so this could be a long and paced devaluation (but pretty safe according to Macros).
Macro Astro Mr. Kyle Bass has cited:
KYLE BASS: 'We are facing the largest macro imbalance in global history'
Rachael Levy 01 Jul 2016 6:58 PM 611
Kyle Bass.
"We are facing the largest macro imbalance in global history."
That's according to Kyle Bass, founder of hedge fund Hayman Capital Management.
Investors better prepare for a Chinese crisis that will mimic what happened in the US mortgage crisis, Bass said in a Friday interview with Real Vision Television.
"When I look at what's happening now in China, the amplitude of what's happening is two, three, or four times what happened in the US," he said.
Here are Bass' main points:
*The Chinese are going to have to accept a devaluation of the yuan.
When the Chinese crisis hits, the Chinese are going to have to react similarly to the way central bankers did after the mortgage crisis.
"They're going to expand the PBOC's balance sheet. They're going to slash the reserve requirement. They're going to drop the deposit rate to zero. They're going to do everything the US did in our crisis," he said.
And it won't look good. "Every single thing the Chinese central bank has to do is currency negative for them."
The takeaway? You better get ready. "In the next two years, this is happening. If you want to pretend that it's not going to happen, you're going to do poorly somewhere in your portfolio."
CNY devaluation looming, likely to cause market turmoilWith all developments in all other instruments, the one possible scenario for the next couple of months is a market crash, ignited by another Yuan devaluation.
It's been so calm during the last year because Yuan was stuck in a triangular correction. Should start moving faster now.
Chinese Yuan USDCNY decreased 0.0027 or 0.04% The USDCNY decreased 0.0027 or 0.04% to 6.8974 on Friday April 28 from 6.9000 in the previous trading session. Historically, the Chinese Yuan reached an all time high of 8.73 in January of 1994 and a record low of 1.53 in January of 1981.
CNY/USD the magician's hand, the other oneSee chart. So Trump is going to tell China to stop manipulating their currency, right? When was the last time we were at these levels, hovering, oh yeh, 2008. Trying to establish a base, but it it breaches, look out below. Dollar soars, and too much strength is really not good, oil tanks, etc. etc. This is just one thing to watch, of a very many things that can go wrong now and soon. And it also could go well. And you have idiots NK playing power plays, for what purpose?
"The Big Short" - from the Movie 2016 Oscar Union reward Short Renminbi for last leg ( the last meal) Stupid is paying the price again and again.
Among those central banks, PBOC is the worst one. They're too old to realize the turning of the culture influence and the huge inflation will be there in the future. This is called NO "wen hua".
I have never shorted Renminbi before but NOT this time.
This is a clearly signal, BTW.
USDCNY Long Entry Opportunity at PullbackIn my opinion this is a very good opportunity for a long entry once we exceed the high of February 8. I also showed some major support levels below for future reference. Don't listen to Kyle.
USDCNY - YUAN 2618 + INCOMING BATThere really is no decent entry in terms of Risk but we do believe we might have the correct projection here. A nice 2618 opportunity that looks like it could end with the opportunity to counter back bullish with a Bat Pattern.
