Forex - $USD/$CNY trend status changed w/ 21yr backtesting- Trend Status Analysis by PresentTrading
'Use backtesting to evaluate and make objective trading decisions.'
by PresentTrading
#forex #USD #CNY #trading #backtesting
CNYUSD trade ideas
USDCNY RSI Bullish Divergence calling for a buyThe USDCNY pair gave us an excellent sell opportunity on our last analysis (October 02 2023, see chart below), as it stayed below Resistance 1 and hit our 7.1225 Target
At the moment the price is struggling to break above the 1D MA5 (blue trend-line), which it hit yesterday for the first time since November 06 2023. What we are currently more interested at is the Higher Lows trend-line that the 1D RSI has been trading on since November 21. During that time, the price is on Lower Lows, which from an RSI perspective is a Bullish Divergence.
At the same time, the pair just formed a 1D Death Cross, the first since February 03 2023, which was on the previous long-term market bottom. What followed after that was a 1D MA100 test (green trend-line). Since we are already on a small rebound, we will buy after a 1D candle closes above the 1D MA50 and target 7.2200 (projected contact with the 1D MA100). Then if the price pulls back and as long as it is above the 1D MA50, we will buy again and target Resistance 2 at 7.2975.
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USD/CNY to test 7 (+/-0.06), then target 7.40Daily chart, the USD/Yuan is seen to test support at 7.06 - 6.94, then rebound to target upper resistance line (blue) at 7.40
Crossing the 7.40 level will push the currency pair to far high targets on the longer term.
Stop loss at support line (red) should be considered.
#USDCNY long term selling opportunityPrice in Daily timeframe seems like to complete 5 wave bullish move and also we can see bearish standard divergence between price and MACD which is a very good signal for pinpointing the top.
But the important thing to remember before taking position is to see market structure shifting to the downside with forming a lower high or creating a new low which at the moment non of this signals has been given by the price.
So its best to wait for the price to confirm the bearish signals its giving to us before jumping to trade.
Please also look at the other analysis in the weekly timeframe that I have posted for higher time frame confirmations which is also tagged.
#USDCNY long term selling opportunityAs you can see in the chart massive bearish divergence between price and MACD indicator in weekly time frame which can cause a long term selling opportunity.
Also price is testing bullish trend line acting as resistance since its connecting the tops and every time price test this trendline sellers jumped into market and drive price lower.
Also as you can see we already had bearish divergence in the price before and caused prices to come lower in previous tops
Usd Chinese currency trend downUs dollas has formed a bad shape against chinese currency mainly due to lack of raising us rates in future,,,, for moment its down
Quick update on CB rat raceAs you citizens can see we've found a mistake in our earlier analysis, we are apoligising for this. We think that during summer of 1998 Russian Federation stepped into fx trading big time and move cycles towards bigger and longer planning. So as you have guessed this is a game of sharade about who is planning longer and who is taking gaps. Thank you and see you later, have a good working week guests.
Summer 2025 prognosysAs it seems in this cold winter Chinese ecnomy has been overheated lately and come to a cold relax. Being world fabrique they hold the leadership in currency squable nevertheless USD, RUBLE, YEN, RUPEE and the rest of the world play their role in the nevertheless of the world markets holy place. Wee see June 2025 as the key uncompounded substance of what is going to happen. Feel free to enjoy out with our analysis and add yours in the middle of ours!
Currency scuffleAs you can see we prepared update for the currency agenda, we have added gd, jpy, rub, and inr to the fuse, as you can see fibonacci cycles stayed the same in the anbsence. We think or at least clearly see on a chart that rub was the most profitable currency available. In the later arrivals we will try to discover most profitable assets nominated in rubles and compare them to assets in other curencies. Feel free to read, analyse, comment and enjoy the party.
Yuan under controlOn the chart we have prepared you can see how yuan was the most hard currency to understand during first two cycles of liquidity squabbling. After this in 2009 USA started to develop a new paradigm ideal for currency fx trading. This was in the third fibonacci cycle of the Chinese brainwave. In the result 2015 was the groundbraking moment resulted in the volatility in the yuan. This has done a lot of noise and side effect in Federal Reserve Funds volatility cycles. Ergo sum is we're in the third fibonacci cycle of Federal Reserve Volatility and in the second fibonacci cycle of the Federal Reserve budgeting cycle. And as you san see analysing ATR yuan is in tears. Please read analyse and comment dear citizen.
USDCNY Strong Support on the Channel UP and 1D MA50.USDCNY is extending the strong bullish pattern inside the nine month Channel Up. The neutral 1D technical outlook (RSI = 53.450, MACD = 0.011, ADX = 34.492) indicates that the current level is a good buy opportunity, especially since the 1D MA50 holds. A crossing under the 1D MA100 however invalidates the bullish trend. Until then, we are long aiming at the 2.5 Fibonacci extension (TP = 7.4850).
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USDCNY Topped on Head & Shoulders or Channel Up extension?It has been long since we last traded the USDCNY pair (May 2023), that gave a solid short-term buy break-out signal (chart below):
The trend has broken aggressively inside a long term Channel Up, which recently broke above the 7.3300 Resistance but only marginally. It stands out that the Resistance breach was made on the Head of a potential Head and Shoulders (H&S) pattern. If Resistance 1 (7.3300) breaks again, then this pattern gets invalidated and we will expected a test of the dotted line at 7.4000.
On the other hand, a break below Support 1 (7.2450) but more importantly the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) that has been supporting since April 19 2023, would be a sell signal towards Support 2 (7.1225) and the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line).
Notice that the 1D RSI has been trading below a Lower Highs trend-line and on the H&S Head made the most recent contact. A similar RSI pattern can be seen in 2022, whose price action also formed a H&S pattern that was eventually a big sell signal.
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Where USDCNY is headed could be alot higher than expected. Where USDCNY is headed could be alot higher than expected. Since it's inversely correlated to Bitcoin I wonder what will see now that it's breaking resistances, will it bounce on what has now turned support or will it plunge back into the range without completing wave 5..With the bounce from the begining of he year I wouldn't be surprised here to see USDCNY rip higher.
No one wants mainland Renmibi.3 month chart. Broke major trend line and continues to print down. My hypothesis is that no one wants to hold mainland currency due to potential domestic economic issues.
Chinese Yuan Price Action Setting Up For a Potential CollapseWe have a huge Void below us and the Yuan has Rallied away from this Void before, but it appears to now be making a Lower High with Hidden Bearish Divergence on Both the RSI and MACD; If the Yuan Breaks Below the B point of this Potential Crab BAMM which also happens to be The Confirmation Line of what would then also be a 3 Falling Peaks Pattern, we will very likely then see Downwards Acceleration Towards the 1.618 Fibonacci Extension Below to Complete the Harmonic Pattern
USD/CNYFX_IDC:USDCNY Price is at a tough spot and I should wait to make a guess. Price could break out of the triangle and retest the resistance zone(I didn't mark it but it will be the last high)before it shoots up -OR it will come back down to the daily support and continue in the range. All I can say for now is that I'm watching to see if a "death cross" will form from the 200 ema and the 20 ema.
10The Yuan will weaken to 10 against the dollar in Sept-Dec.
Structurally, the ratios very unambiguously point to this price target.
Timing-wise, it will almost certainly coincide with the crash in Treasuries that is also due this fall.
USD/CNY ShortLook, no TA here more of an idea based around news that was just announced. China seems to be selling dollars here to prop up the value of their currency. According to the article:
"This adds to the earlier intervention efforts this week, with Reuters reporting that China's major state-owned banks were seen selling dollars again today in exchange for the yuan in the onshore market. One of the sources said that "the 7.25 level could be the floor (ceiling in the case for USD/CNY) in the near-term". -Forex/live
Now, I'm not taking this news at face-value. I am going to follow this idea as I think it's happening at an interesting time.
Yesterday many tech stocks (JD, BIDU, PDD, IQ, ZH) and ETFs (CQQQ, FXI, YINN) all showed long wick dojis.
I don't trade forex but this could be a development towards CNY gaining momentum which helps mitigate downward pressure on Asian markets.
I am long BABA starting yesterday and have a position in NIO from $8.60.
So yeah.... My idea: USDCNY red days have always correlated with HS (Hang Sang) up. Recently HS has been gaining momentum against the DXY moving up when normally it's inverse or near inverse 65% of the time. I think if we start to see CNY gain momentum, some of these tech stocks are really going to start moving.
Too many bears on China right now, news article after news article. Might be the time to make a contrarian trade.
USD/RMB analysisThere has been much talk lately on the Chinese yuan (RMB) dethroning the US dollar as the world's main reserve currency within the next decade or so.
I have been analysing the chart of USD/RMB from an Elliot wave's perspective to assess the possibility of that occurring.
In my analysis, the pair USD/RMB has completed the running flat pattern (W) and is currently on the 'c' wave of the zigzag pattern (abc). The orange box, in the 8 region, is the target price of the (X) wave. This is followed by a retracement in the form of a triangle or flat (Y) and will bring the pair down to the low end of the 7 region as depicted in the chart.
The Y pattern can be viewed as a consolidation phase for the pair before rallying higher. It took 5 years to complete the W pattern. One would then expect a similar timeframe for the Y pattern.
I will label the corrective pattern (W) flat, (X) zigzag, (Y) flat or triangle, as a running double three pattern, with the possibility of the end of wave 2 higher than that of wave 1.
I reckon that USD will gain from strength to strength against the RMB in the years to come, though it will not be in a linear form. As such, it is highly unlikely that the Chinese yuan will replace the US dollar as the world's reserve currency in the next decade, let alone in the foreseeable future. IMHO.
USDCNYA negative harmonic pattern and a negative diver indicate that the price will decrease after reaching the resistance
If U.S. Treasuries Default: Market and Bitcoin Implications Authors: SanTi Li, & NaXi Da
U.S. Treasury yield, long considered as a risk-free rate (R0) for value computations and future valuations as per materials like the CFA curriculum, bears nearly zero risk in the financial landscape. However, what happens if this supposedly risk-free asset becomes risky? A U.S. Treasury default would have vast ramifications on the global economy and financial markets.
Let's analyze the potential impacts on liquidity, the U.S. dollar value, and Bitcoin's value:
Liquidity:
U.S. Treasuries, globally accepted as secure assets, constitute the cornerstone of the global financial system. A U.S. default could lead to a confidence crisis in U.S. Treasuries, prompting large-scale selling and potentially a liquidity crisis. This crunch could trigger a plunge in asset prices, escalate financial market volatility, and exacerbate the global financial crisis.
U.S. Dollar Value:
The U.S. dollar remains the world's primary reserve currency. A U.S. Treasury default could erode global confidence in the dollar, depreciating its value. Still, a market panic might trigger asset sell-off, driving the dollar demand up. Simultaneously, investors could seek refuge in other 'safe haven' assets such as gold or other strong currencies, mitigating dollar depreciation to some extent.
Bitcoin Value:
The secondary market value of Bitcoin is influenced by numerous factors, including market sentiment, consensus, BRC standard popularity, attitudes of governments, regulatory policies, technological developments, and application convenience and degree. If a U.S. default occurs, Bitcoin might respond in two disparate ways:
● Positive Impact: If investors look for non-traditional 'safe haven' assets like gold and silver, and the world requires a new, relaxed reservoir to absorb decompressed funds, Bitcoin's demand and value might increase in the medium to long term.
● Negative Impact: Bitcoin's high volatility and risk could drive investors away during market panic, decreasing its value. Therefore, Bitcoin's reaction would largely depend on market sentiment and investor risk appetite.
Implications on the Global Economy and Trade:
A U.S. Treasury default could precipitate a global recession, or even a deeper economic crisis. It could also impair the credit of the U.S. dollar, disrupting global trade. Exporters to the U.S. might face diminished orders, while importers of U.S. goods and services might encounter higher prices.
Potential Restructuring of the Global Financial System:
A U.S. default could lead to a reevaluation of the dollar-based global financial system, potentially allowing other currencies, especially the yuan, to play a more prominent role in the future global financial system. This could also fast-track the global acceptance of digital currencies and blockchain technology.
Risk Assets Value Volatility:
A U.S. bond default might result in significant volatility in the value of risk assets such as stocks, commodities, cryptocurrencies, and emerging market assets.
In theory, three scenarios could lead to a U.S. bond default - debt ceiling issues, government shutdown, and policy errors. However, extreme 'black swan' scenarios such as external shocks and political conflicts could also lead to default.
In conclusion, while a U.S. default is highly unlikely, if it occurs, it would have a profound impact on the global financial system. Despite initial potential negativity towards emerging digital industries like blockchain and cryptocurrencies, they may encounter new opportunities in the long run. This would especially be the case if the U.S. dollar's status as a settlement currency is challenged. This could increase demand for Bitcoin and accelerate the transformation of global trade methods.
However, it is critical to note that the thoughts expressed above are intended for long-term thinking, discussion, and learning, and should not be construed as investment advice.
However, the probability of an event with a similar magnitude happening is not necessarily low. The exact timing and suddenness of such events are difficult to predict, hence the importance of having risk control and defensive mechanisms in place to be prepared for any situation.
Twitter: @santili1021
USDCNY Approaching a 2 month Resistance on overbought RSI.It's been a long time see we last traded the USDCNY pair (see chart below) but it was a long-term trade that very precisely hit the both the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) and 1W MA100 (red trend-line) targets:
After the January 16 rebound, the pair former a Channel Up and currently the price is approaching the 6.9785 Resistance. The 1D RSI got overbought on Friday for the first time since February 24. If it closes a 1D candle above Resistance 1, we will buy and target the top (Higher Highs trend-line) of the Channel Up at 7.0500. Until then we will sell those overbought indicators and target the 1D MA50 on the short-term and if it closes below the Inner Higher Lows, then sell more towards the bottom of the Channel Up. If the price closes below Support 1, then long-term sell targeting Support 2 at 6.7000.
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