CACAO short term shortStructure is perfect for a large push up/down, if the prices pushes upwards strong, I'd consider switching a short for a long position as we might make new highs.
Currently I'm bearish.
COCOA trade ideas
Cocoa Plunge Ahead – Targeting $9,853!📊 Trade Setup:
Entry Price: 10,877
Take Profit: 9,853 (at previous low)
Stop Loss: 11,883 (above the gap level)
📈 Analysis:
The previous buy trade in the channel hit the target perfectly by closing the gap and reaching our take profit before dropping significantly. Now, with the current bearish sentiment in the market, the setup points to another potential sell trade.
Given the price rejection near the gap level and the overall market pressure, we expect a further decline towards the previous low at $9,853, where strong support may come into play.
🎯 Target:
$9,853: Key support zone (previous low)
🔹 Risk Management:
Stop loss at $11,883, just above the gap level, where price may encounter resistance and trigger further downside.
⚡ Do you expect Cocoa to continue its bearish trend, or could we see a reversal? Drop your thoughts below! ⚡
Cocoa: Potential Reversal Opportunity After Recent DropAfter capturing the significant drop in Cocoa prices over the past few days, we could now be looking at a favorable setup for a reversal to the upside.
Key Observations
Demand Zone Reaction:
Price has entered a major Demand Zone , collected liquidity, and is showing a sharp bounce directly from the opening.
RSI Recovery:
The RSI is rebounding strongly from oversold levels, signaling a possible shift in momentum.
Gap to Be Filled:
There is a visible gap between 11,750 and 11,100 that aligns with our upward target. Filling this gap could provide the momentum for a bullish run.
Trade Setup
Take Profit: 11,750 (gap fill target).
Stop Loss: 9,525 (placed below the Demand Zone).
Risk Management Reminder
Cocoa is known for its volatility. Always apply proper risk management and adjust your position size accordingly to protect your capital.
Conclusion
This setup provides a solid risk-reward opportunity for traders watching the Cocoa market.
Bullish & Bearish cases for CocoaThe GOAT thinks a confirmation above the drawn resistance line (a bit above the double-top) will send the cocoa to 15k (well at least I have an excuse not to buy any chocolate for my boys).
A Rejection at that level will send us down, possibly an M top kind of move.
RSI was in negative divergence territory but now shows a possible breakout... this makes things a bit biased toward the bull case
I personally am too afraid to go long at this level.
I have a sell stop order at around 11k... I rather wait and see how this plays out around that hypothetical resistance line.
COCOA - We had a good drop, but demand is still high,so we go upHi guys, recently had a rollecoaster with Cocoa , but eventually the price went back and stabilized, now I am coming back to it hence , I see that there has been an ascending channel formulated. The overall technical overview is that the asset is indeed overbought, but at this current stage the fundamentals are out-weighting the technicals, bringing up the prices.
From a fundamental perspective, currently for yet another year we have had weather problems which causes the nearby crop of Cocoa in the Ivory coast which is the biggest exporter will be limited in spring as analysts are predicting. Additionally the weather circumstances have lead to an almost two year hiatus where we have problems with the supply of Cocoa, while the demand remains to be high.
‘Like coffee, chocolate is one of those things consumers are reluctant to give up. Poster items for inelastic demand.’
Entry: 11,203
Target 1: 12,404
Target 2: 13,036
Target 3: 14,026
As always my friends happy trading!
P.S. If you have questions or inquiries about one of my existing set-ups or personal questions / 1 on 1 sessions consider joining my channel so you can follow up with me in private!
Cocoa short at 11,400 for a thousand dollarsThere is a potential short entry between the 11,200–11,400 zone, which aligns with a strong supply area causing a break of structure (BOS). This supply zone has shown significant resistance in the past, suggesting it could act as a reversal point.
The target for this short trade is around the 9,600–9,200 level, where buyers are expected to come back.
This setup depends on price reaching the identified supply zone and rejecting it aggressively. Monitor price action for confirmation signals before entering the trade.
if you are a beginner you can follow me and you will see when I enter and exit the trade.
Huge Cocoa Correction Ahead? Cocoa prices face a strong risk of correction back to $10,000 as bearish fundamentals stack up:
Supply Surge Ignored
Ivory Coast port arrivals are up 33% from last season, signaling a significant increase in supply from the world’s largest producer.
Demand Destruction at High Prices
All-time high prices are forcing buyers to scale back purchases or delay deals.
Economic slowdowns and weaker spending on luxury products like chocolate further reduce demand.
Liquidity Crunch in Physical Markets
Massive liquidity issues, including payment delays and a lack of new purchase deals, reflect stress in the cocoa trade and could lead to lower prices.
Profit-Taking and Market Correction
Cocoa prices appear overbought, increasing the risk of speculative profit-taking and a market pullback.
Ghana’s Supply-Boosting Reforms
Ghana’s President-elect plans to revamp the cocoa sector and improve production efficiency, which could add to future supply.
Stronger U.S. Dollar
A stronger USD makes cocoa more expensive for international buyers, reducing demand and putting pressure on prices.
Soft Commodities Correction
Coffee and sugar prices are already correcting, suggesting cocoa may be next in line as markets tend to move together during broader pullbacks.
COCOA overbought, high demand, low supply, but overboughtHi guys, we are going to take a look at a short term correction on the Cocoa, hence it has reacehed very high level in the RSI area, and it is very overbought. Keep in mind that this commodity is very volatile so treat with caution and be careful with your risk management!
Entry: 12,650
Target: 12,039
Stop: 13,080
As always my friends happy trading!
P.S. If you have questions or inquiries about one of my existing set-ups or personal questions / 1 on 1 sessions consider joining my channel so you can follow up with me in private!
Cocoa and Coffee: “very volatile” Since the beginning of 2024, cocoa futures have more than doubled in price and are currently climbing for the seventh week in a row, hitting record levels. The mix of limited supply, high demand, and uncertain weather is keeping the cocoa market unpredictable. Analysts at ING expect prices to stay volatile through next year.
Coffee has also seen a big price jump in 2024, reaching its highest level since 1977. Experts warn that it might take years for coffee prices to come back down. Analysts at Rabobank warned that commodity markets are “very volatile” and “very dangerous,”.
Traders in both the cocoa and coffee markets are keeping a close eye on inventory levels and weather forecasts because any disruptions could cause prices to swing even more.
Cocoa to new highs before New YearVery aggressive trade, I'm skeptical about the Interest rates lowering coming in next months, though it should have a positive effect not just on precious metals but also agrocommodities.
Cocoa vs BTC. Introducing Cocoa Futures Commodities TradingCommodity trading has been booming in recent months and years, as everything from industrial metals to oil, precious metals to soft commodities (coffee, cocoa) is getting hotter.
Last week, coffee futures traded in New York ICEUS:KC1! reached 348 cents per pound of beans, a new historical high, and frozen orange juice concentrate futures ICEUS:OJ1! exceeded the $5 mark for 1 pound, reaching also a new all-time high.
The macroeconomic situation, the continuing geopolitical uncertainty, as well as the overall market volatility caused by these large movements, create a lot of new opportunities.
In addition, the food and environmental crisis sweeping across the planet (a special type of environmental situation when the habitat of one of the species or populations changes in such a way that it calls into question its further existence) is creating extreme bottlenecks in supply chains everywhere, which leads to shortages on the one hand, and a corresponding increase in prices and opportunities on the other.
Both private investors and professional market participants can use Commodities Cocoa Futures to expand the possibilities of investment strategies - hedging risks and profiting from price fluctuations.
For market participants involved in the production and processing of cocoa, futures contracts will allow them to better protect their income from undesirable changes in exchange prices for cocoa beans.
In addition, for those market participants involved in the wholesale purchase of cocoa, futures contracts allow them to better protect their margins from undesirable price fluctuations in exchange prices for cocoa beans, which lead to an increase in purchasing costs.
The underlying asset of the futures is the price of cocoa beans on foreign markets. The contracts reflect the dynamics of the price of cocoa beans supplied from countries in Africa, Asia, Central and South America to any of the five delivery ports in the United States.
In fundamental terms, on November 29, 2024, the International Cocoa Association (ICCO) raised its estimate of the world cocoa deficit for 2023/24 to -478,000 tonnes from -462,000 tonnes forecast in May, the largest deficit in more than 60 years. ICCO also lowered its estimate of cocoa production for 2023/24 to 4.380 million tonnes from 4.461 million tonnes in May, a -13.1% decrease from the previous year. ICCO forecasts world cocoa stocks to be 27.0% in 2023/24, a 46-year low.
Cocoa prices have risen sharply over the past months due to uncertainty about future cocoa supplies. Recent heavy rains in Ivory Coast have led to reports of high mortality of cocoa buds on trees due to heavy rainfall.
Unfavorable weather conditions in West Africa are pushing cocoa prices sharply higher. Heavy rains in Ivory Coast have flooded fields, increased the risk of disease, and affected the quality of the crop. Newly harvested cocoa beans from Ivory Coast are showing lower quality, with quantities of about 105 beans per 100 grams. Ivory Coast regulators allow exporters to purchase quantities of 80 to 100 beans or slightly more per 100 grams.
In other words, West Africa is now exporting at its maximum productive capacity, but the deficit in world reserves remains and is growing.
The arrival of seasonal harmattan winds could also worsen the situation.
Declining global cocoa stocks is also a bullish factor for prices. Cocoa stocks tracked by the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) at three major US ports (Delaware River Port, Hampton Roads Port and New York Port) have been declining for the past year and a half and fell to a 20-year low of 1,430,974 bags on Friday, December 13, 2024 (down 15 percent over the past month).
Another important factor for prices is the seasonal approach of the Christmas and New Year holidays, especially in the main cocoa consuming regions - the US and Europe.
Cocoa prices on world markets are again returning above $ 10,000 per ton, while crypto fanatics in their manic persistence to get the last unmined bitcoin are ready to burn the planet Earth to hell and only deepen the food and environmental crisis striding across the planet.
The main graph represents a comparison across BTC and Cocoa prices over past several months.
So, what would you like to choose amid of recent rally in both assets - sweet cocoa or binary digits inside your computer?
Or are you staying on the sidelines? Let’s talk about it!
Send your thoughts and questions into comment box below to discuss about Cocoa Futures Commodities Trading!
US Cocoa cash coiling US Cocoa cash has been coiling lower and more recently moving in a range 8,000-9,000. We bear and looking for a short below 8,000, stay tuned.
Cocoa's one-yearCocoa's one-year analysis results and 2 hits to all targets and strong price support.
Sasha Charkhchian
MY COCOA LONG IDEA 01/11/2024*Did not enter this trade yet*
Direction: Long
SL: 7425.4
Indicators:
1. MA (20,50,100,200)
2. Trendline - Algo
3. Support and Resistance
4. I also use MT5 - Tradingcentral tools
5. Fib
Time Frame: 4h (I also use other time frames mainly 1D because I like to trade for long period of time)
Technical:
1. MA 20 (Yellow) is very bearish and below the MA 100 and 200 (Purple and Red) but I expect a reversal in this pattern.
2. Red trendline was broken previously so I'm looking for a breakthrough the green trendline.
3. Price respected the Support zone and is rising towards the fib level at 8216.2.
5. Tradingcentral tool signaling RISE on all time frames signifying a very bullish Price action.
Fundamental and economic:
1. COCOA is a very tricky commodity but we can simplify this by looking at the COT data where they were short about 1-2 weeks ago making a short-term bearish setups and I think we are past that phase because in the long run COT is bullish on COCOA.
2. Q4 historically is bullish for this pair according to the seasonal indicator by Tradingview.
3. US Elections, Halloween, Winter season, and Christmas is an influence in the Demand of Cocoa.
COCOA LONG TO 8,500There’s a potential buying opportunity in cocoa, as it has broken structure on the 4-hour chart and price retested the area. Buying pressure is visible. In considerration of all this factors, I am entering long at 7,900. This is intended as a swing trade and may last a few days. Favorable swap rates make this position profitable over time, and I recommend a small position size.
The target is set at 8,500. Follow me for updates on this idea.
COCOACocoa potentially is making EW. So far it have made wave 1 and correction ,now it's potentially on wave 2. Immediate downtrend was broken- retested and price bounced to north. On daily chart price is staying in the symmetrical triangle. I would like to see on 4h.chart price sustained above ema200. Cocoa is driven mainly on fundamentals, so price jumps could be very sharp to either way.
fly baby flyCocoa is one of my favs as she use to more 1000 pips a day easy however been in massive consolidation last 3 months and at last she broke out yesterday and like text book retested the breakout straight away 9% up 9% down hope someone else caught it like me and now we should see her fly 30% to ATH and beyond !!!
Chocolate Lovers Should Brace for a Possible Price IncreaseThe cocoa market is currently indicating a strong possibility of a price surge. A significant bullish breakout from the weekly pennant pattern in cocoa could attract speculators to place large bets, potentially driving the asset's price higher in continuation of the ongoing multi-year bull rally.
If you're a chocolate lover, now might be a good time to stock up before prices become too expensive!
If sugar is cheaper, but cocoa is more expensive, will the pricUnlike sugar, I am looking for a long position in a weekly bullish engulfing pattern. PEPPERSTONE:COCOA
COCOA is in a downtrend nowCOCOA is in a downtrend now but I see opportunity that could go bull if all the stars are filled. Before taking in a trade, you must have your own confirmation.
COCOA LONG 16/08/24Hello everyone,
We seem to struggle a little to get our higher high back, but an uptrend has been identified as you can see with RSI and the blue semi circle, so everything is going according to plan with a little more time than we thought.
IMPORTANT NOTE : at 15/16/17h tomorrow, there is a very strong risk of a brutal drawdown like the one we saw today, be very careful because it is almost sure at 17h, risky at 15 and 16h.
COCOA FULL LONG 15/08/24Hello everyone,
Tomorrow is finally our day. Between technicals, news and a low RSI compared to the previous low, every single condition is perfect for COCOA to break the roof.
Trust us, buy when it opens, wait for the end of the day, it will somehow go up, we drew a few routes to try and show you how to expect it, but no matter what happens, do not sell, stay long.
