Ivory Coast Expects Cocoa Rebound Next Season on Better Weather
Country expects to harvest 2 million tons in 2024-25 crop year
Futures prices have dipped on improved cocoa crop outlook
Ivory Coast’s cocoa output is expected to rebound next season — helping ease a global supply squeeze that pushed prices past records — as the world’s top grower banks on better weather.
The West African producer is likely to harvest 2 million tons of the chocolate-making ingredient in the 2024-25 crop year that starts Oct. 1, according to people familiar with the matter, who cited early pod counting.
The outlook for the upcoming year compares with the 1.8 million tons the International Cocoa Organization estimates the country will harvest by the end of the current season in September. Ivory Coast’s output averaged 2.2 million tons in the five years before 2023-24.
The country has already sold 800,000 tons of the 2024-25 harvest on the forward market, the people said, asking not to be named because they were not authorized to discuss the matter. However, they added forward sales have since been paused by the industry regulator Le Conseil Cafe-Cacao.
The CCC plans a combination of forward and spot sales in the future, as part of a marketing reform.
A mix of bad weather, disease, and aging trees in top growers Ivory Coast and Ghana drove this season’s slump and saw New York cocoa futures soar past $11,000 a ton earlier this year.
Prices have since eased on optimism about improving weather conditions in West Africa. Ghana is also expecting a better crop next season.
Ivory Coast is also cracking down on the smuggling of cocoa beans to neighboring countries which will help boost supplies, said the people. An estimated 200,000 tons of beans were smuggled this season, they added.
A spokesperson for the CCC declined to comment when contacted by phone on Friday.
