COCOA Wanted to come back on the 13th but got slammed with acting work. That said—last week’s war headlines and rollover pressure are still weighing on cocoa, holding it lower than expected. But this looks like it’s setting up for a reversal. Sentiment is heavily short right now, and history shows institutions love to snap price the other way when too many get caught leaning any 1 direction. Wouldn’t be surprised at all if we see an aggressive upside move soon.
Louis Rain CEO, Equaterra Research
Disclaimer: The content shared here is for educational purposes only and should not be taken as financial advice, investment recommendations, or a solicitation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
COCOA We’ve cracked the code to the 🏉"COCOA"🏉 Commodities CFD market, and now it’s time to launch a high-stakes heist based on 🔥Thief Trading style technical + fundamental analysis🔥.
🎯 Mission Objective: Infiltrate the overbought zone, where traps are set, robbers are lurking, and the market’s about to turn. The plan? Ride the bullish wave, loot the Red Zone, and vanish with sweet profits. 🏆💸
🔓 Entry Point: "The vault is wide open!" Buy at will — loot that bullish treasure! ⏱️ Best tactic: Set buy limits on the 15M or 30M swing low/high zones. Set alerts and stay sharp.
🛑 Stop Loss: SL = Nearest 4H Swing Low 🔐 Protect your stash. Use risk-adjusted SL based on trade size and number of entries.
🎯 Target: 11,300 or escape early if the pressure builds!
COCOA Here are the 3 scenarios we think we may see this week.
Scenario 1: Green Rollover Week (60% probability) • Gap up at 1:45am open (up to $10,400) • Potential short squeeze to $10,600–10,750 Tuesday • A fade midweek (~$10,300) before final ramp to $11,000 by Friday
Scenario 2: Shakeout First, Then Ramp (30% probability) • Open red or flat • Flush to $9,700 • Then an aggressive bounce Tuesday through Wednesday as funds reenter • Ends at ~$10,500 by Friday
Scenario 3: Rollover Trap (10% probability) • Commercials fake rally, price caps at $10,250 • Reversal into $9,500 zone by Friday (unlikely unless macro shocks or ICCO surprise)
Day traders may care about non-commercial movements than traditional swing traders as they follow commercial activity to understand true systemic issues underlying in the supply chain. With that said, commercials likely are and have been absorbing near-term downside while specs de-risk for this week’s roll over.
Louis Rain CEO, Equaterra Research
Disclaimer: The content shared here is for educational purposes only and should not be taken as financial advice, investment recommendations, or a solicitation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Open interest peaked near 104k in May, and is now back near 100k.
First Notice Day (FND) hits around June 14–17. So we expect volume to move from July to September contracts between now and midweek so more shakeouts may come. For any day trader this is very dangerous unless exposure is low in our opinion. For swing traders, repositioning is equally beneficial if low reach levels we didn’t foresee.
Out Key Levels: If Sep cocoa (CCU25) can hold above $9,400–$9,500, we think it supports bullish structure.
If it breaks below $9,200 but we think unlikely right now.
Out Big Pictures Are: - Flattening COTs – Commercials are scaling down hedges – Funds are adjusting, not out – Margin easing from different brokers = early reentry signal – June 13-14 = volatility window for strong shakeouts.
Rollout is in the air and July is around the corner.
P.S There is the possibility that rollout happened and exposure on both sides is being reduced. Retail exasperation from the buzz word “Roll out” may bring volatility of its own. Even the news says it. It’s about to be tough.
Louis Rain CEO, Equaterra Research
Disclaimer: The content shared here is for educational purposes only and should not be taken as financial advice, investment recommendations, or a solicitation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
COCOA Spot cocoa dropped below -2.53% past $9,504 on June 2nd, but deferred contracts rose:
• July ‘25 (CCN25): +230 to $9,704 • Sep ‘25 (CCU25): +195 to $9,082 • Dec ‘25 (CCZ25): +161 to $8,451
The shift back into contango after weeks of backwardation is key, as it signals that institutions are not done accumulating.
We See: – Short term selling pressure is targeting front-months (spec liquidations, margin calls, or inventory based fear). – Institutions are quietly rolling into mid to long-dated contracts which is accumulation behavior.
Open Interest confirms it: – July ‘25: 34,417 – Sept ‘25: 26,501
This is where the actual battle is. Not in the front-month flush noise but in Q3/Q4.
As long as CCN25 holds above $9,400, our long thesis remains intact. Shakeouts and whipsaws like we saw on June 2nd and today are to be expected.
June 13 and June 27 remain the key directional catalyst dates before July–September weather risk kicks in and the war begins.
COCOA Every day, the world is getting poorer. Look in the stores what is done with the chocolate that is no longer bought. Easter eggs and bunnies are still on sale at a reduced price because people no longer buy chocolate, especially now in the warm season... In the summer, fruits will be in power! I predict COCOA to go downhill, below 4k. God bless you all!
After we processed over 2000+ pages of COT data, the latest Commitments of Traders confirms what we suspected: this pullback wasn’t a sign of bearish momentum—it was a calculated pause.
Commercials reduced both long and short positions by exactly 2,375 contracts. That kind of perfect symmetry is extremely structural. It signals neutral rebalancing, likely tied to contract rollovers or delivery-cycle positioning, meaning they’re not exiting, they’re holding the range.
Managed Money trimmed exposure modestly—longs down 1,432, shorts down 340, net long interest down 1,092. This follows last week’s $600 rally into a pull back and reflects profit-taking, not trend rejection. Total open interest only dipped 1.5%, suggesting this is controlled rotation, not liquidation.
Other large traders also trimmed risk across the board, and retail participation increased slightly on both sides—indicating indecision. Meanwhile, index fund positions remained unchanged, and options activity stayed flat. No heavy re-hedging. No structural change.
We noticed the matching -2,375 contract symmetry in commercial long and short reductions as one of the clearest rollover or delivery-period rebalancing signals possible. In the current context, it suggests no structural bearish shift, a market pausing to clear exposure before reaccumulating, and clear signs of positioning prep into June—especially now that May options have expired.
All signs point to consolidation and preparation. Volatility is likely early in the week, but June remains a bullish window. Institutions aren’t backing out yet—they’re reloading.
Louis Rain CEO, Equaterra Research
Disclaimer: The content shared here is for educational purposes only and should not be taken as financial advice, investment recommendations, or a solicitation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
COCOA Cocoa’s 5% Dip Looks Like a Final Institutional Shakeout
There’s been no real catalyst for cocoa’s sharp 5% drop — which makes it look like a textbook flush by institutions to settle May put options in the money.
Big money was content building exposure above $10K for weeks. But to profit from cheaper puts, they needed a fast move under $10K. That’s what this week looks like: a shakeout for premium collection, not a change in trend.
From April 29 to May 20, COT data shows three straight weeks of rising fund longs, with only a slight trim on May 6. If Friday’s COT shows another increase, it’ll confirm the funds dumped just enough to scare retail — and are now reloading.
June 1st brings margin requirement cuts for many brokers, which could fuel retail re-entry. If the COT aligns with that, we may see the next leg up kick off by Monday or Tuesday — unless weather flips sentiment again.
Contract Absorption Rate: 65% Complete Equaterra Research
Louis Rain CEO, Equaterra Research
Disclaimer: The content shared here is for educational purposes only and should not be taken as financial advice, investment recommendations, or a solicitation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
COCOA Speculators increased longs by +5,730 and shorts by +2,682 which is a bullish tilt. Commercials added +1,990 shorts, signaling cautious hedging. Open interest jumped +7,533 to 104,424, marking strong market engagement.
Strategic Read: • Speculators are reloading — expect volatility. • Commercials hedging — possible short-term ceiling. • More liquidity = better trade efficiency.
We plan to stay in float preservation mode, harvesting volatility, and preparing for institutional positioning shifts as we approach June’s pivot.
Louis Rain CEO, Equaterra Research
Disclaimer: The content shared here is for educational purposes only and should not be taken as financial advice, investment recommendations, or a solicitation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
COCOA Wanted to come back on the 13th but got slammed with acting work. That said—last week’s war headlines and rollover pressure are still weighing on cocoa, holding it lower than expected. But this looks like it’s setting up for a reversal. Sentiment is heavily short right now, and history shows institutions love to snap price the other way when too many get caught leaning any 1 direction. Wouldn’t be surprised at all if we see an aggressive upside move soon.
