COCOA Speculators increased longs by +5,730 and shorts by +2,682 which is a bullish tilt. Commercials added +1,990 shorts, signaling cautious hedging. Open interest jumped +7,533 to 104,424, marking strong market engagement.
Strategic Read: • Speculators are reloading — expect volatility. • Commercials hedging — possible short-term ceiling. • More liquidity = better trade efficiency.
We plan to stay in float preservation mode, harvesting volatility, and preparing for institutional positioning shifts as we approach June’s pivot.
Louis Rain CEO, Equaterra Research
Disclaimer: The content shared here is for educational purposes only and should not be taken as financial advice, investment recommendations, or a solicitation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
COCOA A bearish move may have just begun for $COCOA. From my perspective, this could mean a potential shift in momentum into a corrective phase. This is not a trade idea, or financial advice, only a forecast based on the current market. tradingview.com/x/4MZQkqaP/
COCOA So the ICCO saying “five months remain” isn’t just a neutral update, that’s coded for volatility’s not over yet.
What they’re really saying: Uncertainty = there’s still no clear fix. The supply squeeze is alive — they’re just not spelling it out.
Five months = May through September which lines up perfectly with the volatility window we researched among October.
Our research found that Q1 grind data looks bad in the charts, but it’s only down ~3.5% YoY better than a lot of 2022. This suggests that the ICCO isn’t predicting stability, but stalling. That means price discovery is still on and funds are likely using this report as cover to suppress a breakout, reload at discount, and rinse weak positions again.
I’ll be eager to see how this plays out, as I continue absorbing contracts at low prices.
Louis Rain CEO, Equaterra Research
Disclaimer: The content shared here is for educational purposes only and should not be taken as financial advice, investment recommendations, or a solicitation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
COCOA Although our research shows a bearish pullback is due, many bearish cocoa posts about Nigeria, South Sudan, and Papua New Guinea are premature. These remain highly speculative and years from having any meaningful impact. More likely, they're institutional sentiment plays not realities for this month. None threaten near-term supply on a macro-bullish scale. Soubre's rainfall is—and has been— misleading. Yes, 27mm was logged, but cumulative April/May rain remains far below the norm. Late rain does little if pod shrinkage has already set in and droughts have degraded soil quality. Even if production rises, ICE delivery standards, grading, and logistics remain major bottlenecks. Futures can't price beans they can't verify or ship. As for any $3,000/ton talk, it's noise. That's below breakeven and assumes a glut that doesn't exist. So vet everyone who posts here, including us if you like. You'd be surprised what you find. Funds are distorting sentiment to trap retail before the ICCO, let alone before the market even opens.
Louis Rain CEO, Equaterra Research
Disclaimer: The content shared here is for educational purposes only and should not be taken as financial advice, investment recommendations, or a solicitation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
ICCO will likely serve as a manipulation pivot—after shorts extract enough liquidity, funds flip sides and begin prepping for July’s open interest war. I expect the usual subliminal shakeouts through June: pumps into aggressive drops that rinse liquidity but hold higher lows or don’t break them substantially/for long. Volatility ahead may rival crypto, penny stocks, or meme names, especially in July, October, and December.
I’ll be absorbing mid to end of next week into May and June for July’s “Open Interest War”
Disclaimer: The content shared here is for educational purposes only and should not be taken as financial advice, investment recommendations, or a solicitation to buy/sell any financial instrument.
Speculators: • Longs up +3,490 • Shorts down –467 • Net position now +20,868 Interpretation: Bullish conviction rising. Funds are leaning harder into the rally.
Commercials: • Longs down –661 • Shorts up +5,187 • Net position now –27,022 Interpretation: Processors are hedging more aggressively, signaling price risk concerns.
Spreads: • Modest increase (+732), suggesting more complex positioning.
Open Interest: • Up +6,056 to 96,891 Interpretation: More participants. More volatility. More fuel.
Market Read: Speculators are pressing the upside and commercials are preparing for it. This is the kind of positioning spread that often precedes sharp continuation or violent reversal.
Cocoa’s surge looks driven by 3 converging forces:
1. Supply Stress Rainfall remains 6x–8x below May norms (approx. 7.9x under the 70+ year average). That’s not enough to reverse pod or quality damage.
2. Quality Crisis TradingEconomics & Nasdaq report 5–6% bean rejection—about 5x worse than usual. It’s not just about quantity anymore, it’s usability.
3. Demand Panic With relief fading, funds and algos piled in, pricing in the fear that even the available beans won’t pass.
The Real Battle: The Futures Curve
July ’25 now trades above September which is a rare inversion. This signals stress: specs are trapped, rollouts are being forced, and margin pressure is building. July is the battleground. Price either breaks structurally toward 14k, or collapses back to 8k–7k if exhaustion takes hold.
COCOA my first short position how now been added, reason for this is the huge order block and resistance level. Im not ruling out a move higher but its a good time to start adding to the shorts. This is extremely overbought! $11400 looking for a move back down into the $7-$8s
COCOACOCOA Cocoa’s run to $10K was driven by real fears: West Africa’s rainfall is still massively below seasonal norms. Avg. May rainfall should be ~130mm. We’re pacing ~16.4mm—7.9x under historical needs over a 73 year period. That’s not recovery—it’s deterioration delayed.
But the market trades headlines. If “rain has returned” stories spread, expect a pullback to $8,800–$9,200. That’s not bearish—it’s a setup. Funds use this range to reload, trap shorts, and re-accelerate toward $12,000 or higher once weather reality sets in by June.
COCOA Speculators increased longs by +5,730 and shorts by +2,682 which is a bullish tilt. Commercials added +1,990 shorts, signaling cautious hedging. Open interest jumped +7,533 to 104,424, marking strong market engagement.
