We now have a direction for GOLDSeems the entire market was waiting on Trump to do his thing. Now that we have that news out the way on Tarrifs the market is much more likely to give up a direction. Grounds for much safter plays.
GCH2027 trade ideas
Gold running out of Gas to keep pushing up!I have been waiting for a solid pull back. Price looks like it wants to give it up. But since it is so bullish I have to wait for it to show its hand first before assuming. If price wants to continue with the strong bullish action I feel they need to come back and correct some of the price action first. Looking for signs they want to continue for Asian Session.
Can Gold Continue Higher? Last month, I pointed out that Large Speculators started to close out their net-long positions in Gold futures, betting on the possibility of a reversal as they attempted to time the market turn at all-time highs. This behavior continued for several weeks, yet Gold’s price continued its upward rally, leaving many traders scratching their heads. What’s particularly puzzling is the lack of chasing in this rally, especially considering the massive price movement since then. This is particularly surprising because Large Speculators, for the most part, are trend-followers — and right now, the trend in Gold is unmistakably bullish.
When comparing positioning in Gold to Silver, there’s a distinct difference. While Large Speculators initially followed the rally in Silver, continuing to buy as Silver lagged behind Gold, this strategy was much more reactive. Silver’s underperformance relative to Gold made sense, given that Silver is more crowded than Gold — meaning there’s less demand and fewer buyers.
The key takeaway from this analysis is that the Commitment of Traders (COT) report can offer valuable insights into which market presents the better risk/reward trade. In this case, the COT report highlighted Gold as the superior trend to follow, especially for traders looking to capitalize on precious metals amidst all the tariff news and rising market uncertainty. By using the COT, traders can refine their strategies to focus on trends with more significant potential, rather than getting distracted by more volatile, crowded trades.
Be the Choosy trader on Gold!Price is dragging on dropping. being very indecisive. Looks like the entire market is waiting on News to help give it a push. I need to see price break out of value before I can get a read on a sold move. in the mean time this is sclaping conditions. You can hold trades. Have to cut them short quick with this price action. Since we have some USD news tomorrow that indicates that the market might be waiting for that before proceeding on any decisions. Patience is key!
GLD keeps surging in steps of 21.37% Why this number?Time for Gold to rest pause consolidate after climbing 21.37%. What's with this number? Even the best can't climb Mt Everest in one go. They must rest at every base camp, so must gold
Gold Futures: Flight of the PhoenixCOMEX:GC1!
Gold Futures Analysis:
Gold futures are currently presenting a clearer picture compared to equity index futures. Crude oil futures, on the other hand, have already priced in much of the recent tariff news, with a reversal observed from the 2025 mid-range back towards $65. Despite heightened volatility, the WTI crude oil market remains relatively balanced, with bearish sentiment materializing, if prices drop below and stay below the $65 mark.
Gold futures, however, are offering more defined risk-reward opportunities at the moment. Our analysis shows a macro bullish trend in gold, along with price discovery and market auction trends visible on lower timeframes.
On the 4-hour chart below, we observe a rising upward channel, with key levels identified and reasoning for these levels labeled on the chart.
Key Levels:
• ATH: 3201.6
• HVN (High Volume Node) for long entry: 3115
• LVN (Low Volume Node)/LIS for short entry: 3095.1
• Key LVN Support: 3003.7-3018
Scenario 1: Bearish Continuation
If Gold futures stay below the trend line that defines both our long and short trade ideas, the bearish scenario could materialize. For a short trade to be viable, we would look for a close below the LVN/LIS level (3095.1) and enter on a pullback, targeting the major LVN support zone around 3018.0.
Example trade parameters for Scenario 1:
• Entry: 3095.1
• Stop: 3125
• Target: 3018
• Risk: 29.9 points
• Reward : 77.1 points
• Risk to Reward Ratio: RRR=77.1/29.9 ≈2.58
Scenario 2: Bullish Reversal
In the event that Gold futures push back towards all-time highs due to heightened uncertainty and a flight to safety, we expect initial profit-taking by shorter timeframe traders to provide a pullback. This could present a long opportunity towards the all-time highs.
Example trade parameters for Scenario 2:
• Entry: 3115
• Stop: 3095
• Target: 3200
• Risk : 20 points
• Reward : 85 points
• Risk-to-Reward Ratio: RRR= 85/20 = 4.25
Important Notes:
• These are example trade ideas, and traders are encouraged to do their own analysis and preparation before entering any positions.
• Stop losses are not guaranteed to trigger at specified levels, and actual losses may exceed predetermined stop levels.
A Gold'en Newtonian Sell-Off Porjected By MedianlinesSir Isaac Newton stated the Third Law of Motion in his landmark work, Philosophiæ Naturalis Principia Mathematica (commonly called the Principia), which was first published in 1687. This law appears in Book I, in the section titled Axioms, or Laws of Motion.
(Axiom: A self-evident truth)
Newton did explicitly present it as an axiom. In fact, it's Axiom III (or Law III) of his three fundamental laws of motion. Here's how he phrased it in the original Latin and in his own English translation:
"To every action there is always opposed an equal reaction: or the mutual actions of two bodies upon each other are always equal, and directed to contrary parts."
And what does this have to do with Medianlines / pitchforks?
This tool measures exactly that: the action — and the potential reaction!
Medianline traders know that pitchforks project the most probable direction that a market will follow. And that direction is based on the previous action, which triggered a reaction and thus initiated the path the market has taken so far.
…a little reciprocal, isn’t it? ;-)
So how does this fit into the chart?
The white pitchfork shows the most probable direction. It also outlines the extreme zones — the upper and lower median lines — and in the middle, the centerline, the equilibrium.
We see an “undershoot,” meaning a slightly exaggerated sell-off in relation to the lower extreme (the lower median line). And now, as of today, we’re seeing this overreaction mirrored exactly at the upper median line!
Question:
What happened after the lower “overshoot”?
New Question:
What do you think will happen now, after the market has overshot the upper median line?
100% guaranteed?
Nope!
But the probability is extremely high!
And that’s all we have when it comes to “predicting” in trading — probabilities.
Why? Because we can’t see the future, can we?
Gold?
Short!
Looking forward to constructive comments and input from you all
GOLD finally Moving right again!Been waiting for the correction to happen to give better opportunities for a long. Now that they have pulled back and fixed the gap they left I think it will continue with its bullish pressure. monitor for entries and ride the wave.
GOLD - New Week, New Month, New Quarter! = Opportunity Gold has not been moving how I feel it normally should. The last 2 weeks have been extremely bullish with no significant pullbacks. I believe they wanted to close last month completely bullish before they offer the solid pullback that we are looking for. Also this is a new quarter. Taking it easy as we come into this new quarter but keeping a eye on all the signs for direction.
Long trade
Pair GC1!
Buyside trade
NY Session PM
Thu 3rd April 25
7.00 pm approx.
Entry 3175.7
Profit level 3196.6 (0.66%)
Stop level 3173.6 (0.07%) RR 9.95
Reason: Observing price action on the 1min TF seemed indicative of a buyside trade based on the narrative of of demand and demand for directional bias. Entry 1min TF
1min TF overview
Not Even Gold Escaped the Volatility of Liberation DayWe finally saw the shakeout on gold I was expecting around $3000. This clearly changes things for gold traders over the near-term, even though the fundamentals remain in place for bulls. I highlight key levels for gold and take a look at the devastation left across key assets on Thursday.
Matt Simpson, Market Analyst at City Index and Forex.com
Hilarious algo failImagine getting one hour to think about what to do after the Trump speech, and coming up with the idea to sell your only winner (gold futures) at market price immediately after the one hour break, lol. Probably sold it to buy more index futures, lol, morons.
Apparent that is what at least one of the algos did. It looks like all of the algos are desperate for cash right now because gold futures are not tracking spot price. (I posted a plot)
If you bought GLD like I did, look at spot pricing XAU/USD tomorrow, not futures GC1!. We're up over 1% now.
Gold futures trend directionGold futures 88130 - is at raising flag pattern. Expected to drop down to test 86163
Gold Trade Review – Potential Pop, Drop, then ATH's SetupWe are currently watching a potential pop and drop and potential ATH scenario developing in gold. Price is holding above a key daily level at $3,021.4 , which will serve as the critical pivot area. A sustained move below this level will likely trigger continuation toward the next significant daily level at $2,968.5 for T1, and potentially further into the weekly/daily support zone at $2,953.2 , with an extended target at the daily level of $2,929.0.
I would expect that zone to provide support, though there is an untested area lower near the recent lows at $2,893.6. Ideally, I do not want to see price move much beyond our first weekly/daily support zone mentioned above but would lean on the lower level as a last ditch effort to hold the structure.
From the current price structure, based on Fridays close there's also potential for a move higher into (#1) $3,058 , which is an untested daily level (approached from below). If this level acts as firm resistance, it could trigger the anticipated drop into the zones outlined above. Keeping an eye on being above or below $3,021.4 will be critical for progression in either direction.
Gold 2025What does Gold have in store for us, i still believe we get a deeper correction before we continue the rally higher. The way I see the market playing out is indicated. I do think that $3000 will be a reasonable target before we probably revert to a range of $2000/$3000
Year ahead 25' GoldGOLD Analysis
The uptrend channel remains intact, with price currently trading near the uptrend line. I’ll shift to lower timeframes to explore intraday opportunities.
Always consider all potential price movements and prioritize trades with the highest probability of success. Remember, patience and precision are essential for maintaining an edge in the markets.
GOLD - WEEKLY SUMMARY 24.3-28.3 / FORECAST🏆 GOLD – 5th week of the base cycle (15-20+ weeks). After a brief correction at the pivot forecast on March 19 (see the previous post), gold resumed its bullish trend at the extreme forecast on March 24 – the midpoint of retrograde Mercury.
⚠️ Holding the long position from the extreme forecast on March 3. The movement range to the pivot forecast on March 19 for GC futures exceeded USD12K per contract. Those who took profits, I hope you reopened long positions. The next extreme forecast for gold is April 7.
The day's rebound is mainly highAt present, the gold market has been fluctuating in the range for some time, and the market has not made a directional choice, which means that the gold price will continue to fluctuate during the day, and it is a downward flag adjustment range. For our operation layout, we should keep high-altitude and low-multiple in the range.
In the oscillating market, we mainly focus on the recent direction. It is obvious that it is a short-selling oscillation after the top falls. In the range, high-altitude and low-multiple are the first to focus on the opportunity of shorting. In this market at noon, we still need to continue to wait for the opportunity to short. From the four-hour trend, the upper pressure is focused on the 3036 line, and the lower support is near the support level of 3010!
Gold operation suggestions: short near 3032-3036, stop loss 3042, target 3015
Gold is setting up for the bigger play!Been waiting. taking what Little scalps I can here and there. but waiting for the bigger move to set up. Price is reluctantly pushing bearish for now. Need it to sweep and lows grabbing some lower liquidity before proceeding with the push up.
Long trade
30min TF overview
1min TF Entry
Pair GC1!
Buyside trade
NY Session AM
10.00 am
Entry 3023.2
Profit level 3042.5 (0.64%)
Stop level 3020.6 (0.09%)
RR 7.42
Reason: Looking left at previous price action and respected levels along with the Periodic Volume Profile (PVP) indicator and ascending channel seemed to suggest we were at a prime demand level indicative of a buyside trade.
Gold ExpansionCOMEX:GC1! reversed off the weekly average zone and is gradually working through that 4H FVG.
Looking for a clean break above it, then a retrace back to that zone. My target is the Daily Major Buyside Liquidity, with an eye on a potential extension toward the Weekly Average Expansion area if momentum holds.
Gold inertia accelerates towards 3000 markAfter gold broke a new high overnight, it further increased to around 2990, and the daily line finally closed with a big bald sun. The previous sideways squat gave the bulls sufficient power, strong kinetic energy and fast speed, and the closing price was high at the end of the day, indicating that the strong trend will continue, and there is still room for further upward movement. In the 4H cycle, after breaking through the previous high pressure of 2956, the inertia of rushing up caused the indicators to deviate slightly. In the white market, we will first look at the correction space for the decline, and then look at further upward movement after the correction. The top and bottom support below is around 2956, and the 1H cycle support is at 2967. In terms of operation, we will continue to treat it as a long-term idea, and then gradually look at the 3000 mark on the top. Do not blindly guess the top and empty.
Operation suggestion: Buy gold near 2967-68, stop loss at 2960, look at 2981, 3000!
Latest real-time market trend analysisIn the early Asian session, spot gold fluctuated at high levels and is currently trading around $2,986.08 per ounce. Gold prices surged more than $50 on Thursday, hitting a new record high as heightened tariff uncertainty and bets on the Fed's loosening of monetary policy keep gold prices attractive. As geopolitical tensions intensify, investors flock to safe-haven assets, and Zhang Desheng predicts that the average price of gold may reach $3,150 per ounce between July and September. Putin supports a ceasefire but emphasizes details, resulting in an unclear ceasefire outlook, which tends to push up market risk aversion and continue to support gold prices. If Russia-US relations ease or energy cooperation is reached, it may ease safe-haven demand and put pressure on gold prices, and then gold prices will fall back.
From the technical perspective of gold: yesterday, gold broke through and rose sharply. Gold is in a rising cycle at the daily level, and this cycle has not yet ended. Under the strong push of continuous positive lines, the gold price will most likely continue to move towards 3000-3010. In the daily K, the stochastic indicator golden cross continues, the indicator golden cross, and the bullish pattern continues. In the 4-hour period, the stochastic indicator golden cross state, the MACD double line adhesion upward, are all main long signals, and the support position of the top and bottom conversion is near 2955. Therefore, the 4-hour period can be treated as a strong and weak conversion point according to the top and bottom conversion of 2955; today, there is no doubt that gold continues to be bullish and long, and there is still room and demand for further rise. Today, gold focuses on the support below at 2980-2970. The gold bulls are very strong and there is a probability of further continuation. The upper side can look at the 3000 mark and the 3010 line. In terms of today's operation, consider retreating to arrange long orders first, and high-altitude as a supplement.
Gold operation strategy: Operation suggestion: Buy at 2970-2975, stop loss at 2965, target at 2990-3000
