Gold Confirms its Bullish for the week!The bullish play that I was looking for ended up playing out. Now I'm looking for it to continue but sitting on hands till it gives up a solid entry point. Waiting for the killzone is key.
GCK2014 trade ideas
New Month, New Week, New Opportunities on Gold! looking for price to flip back to bullish this week but we need to wait for a break in structure of a possible sweep of the lows first before we see it. Monday might just be flaky so being hesitant until Tues for the best move.
CLOSED MARKET Review on Upcoming Week for Gold!Taking the time to empty out my thoughts as we get ready for another week. NFP last week held up a lot of price action that could of happened. now that we are past it we should get some significant moves. just have to wait for the killzones.
LETS GOOOO!!! NEW WEEK ON GOLD!!!Looking for the moves an I think we will come out the gate moving bullish all week. Practicing patience and waiting for the killzone before getting active on anything. Expecting some good moves starting tonight.
GOLD | XAUUSD Weekly Market Forecast: Mar 10-14 In this video, we will analyze the GOLD Futures. We'll determine the bias for the upcoming week, and look for the best potential setups.
Gold has consolidated for the last half of the previous week. Trading in a ranging market is not recommended! But waiting until there is an obvious sweep of the high or low liquidity pools can give us an indication which side the market will break the consolidation. Patience and a watchful eye will allow us to take advantage of the momentous opportunity.
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
Leave any questions or comments in the comment section.
I appreciate any feedback from my viewers!
Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis.
Thank you so much!
Disclaimer:
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here.
Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
Remaining Bullish on Goldyesterday was the Non Farm Payroll news. Price stalled till it was time for news then pulled back to fill in a H4 Gap. Now I'm looking for price to continue bullish. There is not Area that they did not fill in so I'm thinking they might just come out the gate running soon as we are inside of the killzone. waiting for the killzone is the key though.
GOLD FUTURES MADE TREND LINE BREAKOUTgold if comes above 85000 again can make strong bullish trend
also can make new all time high
Gold Futures - Potential Springtime ReversalGold futures have been on a rally, but recent price action suggests a potential shift. Could we be witnessing a Wyckoff distribution forming?
Understanding Wyckoff Distribution
The Wyckoff distribution pattern occurs when large institutions begin selling off their positions to retail traders before a downtrend begins. This phase is often characterized by sideways price movement, false breakouts, and key "Signs of Weakness" (SOW) that hint at an impending sell-off.
A Recent Sign of Weakness in Gold Futures
A possible sign of weakness in gold futures was observed recently when prices gave a false break out at what retail traders would label "key levels".
Historical Seasonal Trends: Spring Reversals
Looking at historical data, Moore Research Center, Inc. (MRCI.com) has tracked seasonal gold price patterns for over 40 years. Their findings indicate that gold often experiences price reversals during the spring months. This aligns with the idea that we could be heading into a seasonally weak period, increasing the likelihood of a distribution phase playing out.
What Traders Should Watch For
As Gold rallies back towards a new all time high we should be aware that it may be just a false break to form the final phases of a distribution schematic. This would form an upthrust, and upthrust after distribution, followed by a sharp retracement back into the range and ultimately leading to a sell off and market reversal.
Final Thoughts
While nothing is certain, the combination of the financial institutions footprint and historical seasonal data suggests gold traders should proceed with caution. Whether you’re trading futures or investing in physical gold, staying aware of these patterns can help you make informed decisions.
Do you think a Wyckoff distribution is playing out in gold? Share your thoughts in the comments!
GOLD - WEEKLY SUMMARY 3.3-7.3 / FORECAST🏆 GOLD – 17th week of the base cycle (15-20+ weeks). As expected, the pivot forecast on March 3 reversed gold upward from the extreme forecast level of October 28 (2850 on current futures). A new base cycle cannot be ruled out, though technical confirmation is lacking. The usual cycle length for gold is closer to 20 weeks, so we remain in the final phase, and anything is possible—traders must react accordingly.
👉 Pivot forecast trade on February 24 yielded a $3K–$5K per contract move into retrograde Venus on March 3—congrats to those who entered, a solid trade.
A long position was opened at the March 3 extreme forecast, which is now at breakeven.
⚠️ Next extreme forecast: March 17—coinciding with the start of retrograde Mercury.
GOLD AssertationNot 100% confident in this trade Based on whats been happening in the market Missing about two confluence to be More Confident But Will See How This Works Out and Learn From my Mistake Even if i Am Right Originally my confidence in this wasnt there So i will dissect That Reason To better Pin Point High Confluence Trades
Amid Price Uncertainty, Gold Straddle Paves the PathYellow metal prices have soared. It has been setting several new all-time highs with futures trading just shy of the USD 3,000/oz level. However, gold has struggled to breach past the crucial mark despite multiple attempts.
Some data points suggest that the rally in gold might be losing steam even though fundamental demand drivers remain intact.
A nuanced position is required at times like this. Options are tailored to help portfolio managers to position shrewdly in such dicey situations.
GEOPOLITICAL RISK IS PERSISTENTLY ELEVATED IN THE NEW WORLD ORDER
The Geopolitical Risk Index (GPR) remains above one hundred since 2022 which reflects sustained global uncertainty driven by ongoing geopolitical tensions. This trend has persisted for years, with recent tariff-related uncertainty adding fuel to this fire.
Data Source: Economic Policy Uncertainty
Gold, as a safe haven asset, benefits from these conditions. However, the recent bond selloff has driven Treasury rates higher which could potentially reduce demand for gold as it is a non-yielding asset.
CENTRAL BANKS ARE LOADING ON RISING GLOBAL TRADE UNCERTAINTIES
Central banks are resuming gold purchases, with January showing an uptick, albeit below the 2024 average. The accelerating pace could signal further momentum, particularly amid rising global trade uncertainty.
Data Source: WGC
China resumed gold buying in November 2024 following a six-month hiatus. China was one of the largest buyers in 2023 and a repeat of that in 2025 will see a sharp demand spike.
LARGE GOLD FLOWS INTO THE US
The large financial institutions which serve as counterparties in the futures market have been importing significant quantities of physical gold to the US. The recent flows have surpassed levels seen during COVID pandemic.
Physical imports have been driven by fears of a tariff on gold imports. However, the pace of imports has slowed down and is starting to plateau.
Looking back at 2020, when similar conditions arose, prices remained stagnant after the sharp rally driven by physical gold imports. The risk of a repeating pattern is even more potent given the strong resistance at the USD 3,000/oz level. A strong driver may be required to allow prices to cross this threshold.
Chart Source: WGC
Another factor contributing to the temporary physical supply shock is the refining process required before gold reaches the U.S.
The physical gold reserves held in London for Good Delivery are the 400-oz bars, which must be refined into 1-kilo bars for CME delivery. This process requires an intermediate stop in Switzerland, adding delays that exacerbate supply constraints.
However, as the additional refined metals reach the U.S. in the coming weeks, supply is expected to normalize, potentially putting downward pressure on prices.
Chart Source: WGC
Other supply stress indicators are easing. Gold leasing rates, which reflect the cost of borrowing for physical use, recently surged above 5%, with near-term borrowing costs rising sharply. Leasing rates have returned to normal, albeit slightly elevated.
TECHNICAL SIGNALS POINT TO STRONG MOMENTUM ENCOUNTERING RESISTANCE
The summary below suggests a bullish stance in gold but prices are encountering resistance. Over the past month, prices have faced strong resistance at the USD 3,000 level despite a strongly bullish sentiment.
The resistance formed after a stunning rally which pushed gold into overbought territory, a correction at this stage is expected.
Should momentum fade, gold prices may continue to consolidate between present levels and the 100-day moving average.
Gold futures prices formed a death-cross on 5th March 2025 which may fuel a near term price correction.
GOLD VOLATILITY IS NOT LOW BUT CAN RISE HIGHER IF CONDITIONS TURNS TENSE
Gold Volatility as measured by CME’s Gold CVol printed a high of 50.13 on 18th March 2020 and a low of 8.18 on 3rd May 2019.
Presently hovering at 16.35, the implied volatility in gold is not too low but below average with the potential to spike higher should geopolitical or other shocks rock the market.
Source: CME CVol
HYPOTHETICAL TRADE SETUP
Fundamentals remain intact and could intensify if tariff and/or geopolitical tensions peak. That said, the phenomenal gold rally is starting to lose shine as it encounters strong resistance with death cross forming on 5th March 2025.
Supply shocks that fueled the rally in Feb are now fading.
Equity risks are elevated with expensive S&P 500 P/E multiples. Geopolitical and trade risk remain tense. These conditions support a further bullish position in gold.
With prices expected to swing either way, portfolio managers are best positioned to have a convex position that gains from sharp moves in either direction.
To express this ambivalent view on the path ahead for gold prices, portfolio managers can utilize CME Micro Gold Options to establish a long straddle (combination of long put & long call) that gains from (a) deep pull back in prices (puts gain in value), or (b) sharp rally (calls deliver the gains), and (c) implied volatility expansion (where both puts & calls gain in value).
Conversely, this trade will incur losses if prices remain flat and if volatility shrinks.
The pay-off of the hypothetical long straddle set up using CME Micro Gold Options June 2025 contract expiring on 27th May 2025 is illustrated below.
The long call at a strike of 2,945 will cost USD 84.9 per lot and the long put at the same strike will cost USD 86.9 per lot adding up to USD 171.80 per lot in total premiums. The long straddle will generate positive returns at expiry if the underlying futures prices are (a) above the upper break even point of USD 3,116.80/oz, or (b) below the lower break even point of USD 2,732.20/oz.
Source: QuikStrike Strategy Simulator
If the underlying futures prices stay within the break-even points, this straddle is exposed to a maximum loss of USD 171.80/lot representing the total premium. Happy Investing.
MARKET DATA
CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs tradingview.com/cme .
DISCLAIMER
This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
Bullish Hourly Setting up on Gold ChartsGold is showing strong potential for an upward move. With a solid support level in place and bullish momentum building, this could be an excellent time to position for a breakout. If the price holds above key support, we may see significant gains in the near term.
GOLD Closing out the MonthLooking for Gold to fill in the Weekly FVG then turn around to flip back bullish going into the new month. Price will show its hand between now and London. We just have to wait for it. Patience is key!
GOLD CORRECTION AND THEN RALLYGold may fall to fill the gap of 2773.00 and test 2735.00 area before rallying back to 3000.00
GC - Golden Rocketship To The U-MLHWe got on the Rocket-Ship earlier and took profit.
If you're still in with a position, or if you can manage to get in with a decent Risk/Reward, you may want to aim for the U-MLH.
The Stars look good and profits are twinkling §8-)
If the 1/4 line is cracked, we will see a follow-through.
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade Afternoon Update For 2-26-25Please take a moment to watch this video, in which I share my techniques and highlight what I believe will be the next setup phase for the SPY/QQQ, Gold, Silver, and Bitcoin.
It looks like the selling pressure is nearly over, and I think the shift to a moderate recovery rally could set up over the next 24-48 hours.
It could be a good setup for skilled traders.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
Gold's Crossroads – Dip Before the $3K Breakout? ⚖️ Gold's Crossroads – Dip Before the $3K Breakout? 🤔📉
Gold has almost hit the $3,000 mark—but not quite. 🚀 While many are ultra-bullish, let’s take a step back and consider the potential for a pullback before any new highs.
Gold is expensive, and even my jeweler friend admits it’s becoming more of a store of value than a commodity for luxury. That brings us to a key question: Is a drop coming first?
🔄 Two Possible Scenarios:
1️⃣ Pullback First (More Likely) – Gold could drop toward $2,794, or even deeper to $2,575, where the all-time trendline support sits. A cooling-off period makes sense, especially after such an extended rally. 📉
2️⃣ Breakout to New Highs – If buying pressure holds, a clean push above $3K could send gold toward $3,294 - $3,600, and even EUROTLX:4K later in the cycle. 🚀
🔍 The Fort Knox Question 🤯
There’s growing speculation about the $400 billion in gold reserves at Fort Knox. If something unexpected is uncovered, could that fuel a major gold rally? Or will Bitcoin, the digital gold, start to steal some of its shine?
It’s a fascinating time for gold traders. While the long-term outlook remains bullish, a dip before liftoff seems like the logical play. Let’s stay sharp. ⚡📊
P.S. Gold has risen even with the USD remaining expensive and interest rates still high—which is not the norm. Could it be that we see gold detach from its historical correlations and trade in a completely new paradigm? 🤔
One Love,
The FXPROFESSOR 💙
Gold Temp Bearish Pressure Price looks like its going to sweep the lows. I mentioned this in my previous update. Being that it is the end of the month and coming up to end week we might not get the bullish play this week but if they move inside of the Weekly FVG then they have my attention.
JOURNAL FOR MGC1!Today I placed two trades on MGC1! my first entry was a sell scalp which was strictly a technical entry and the second was the buy back up because it goes with the bias of gold being bullish, and inflation fears, so for each trade Ive wait on a area of consolidation (order block) then wait on a break out in this case after that impulsive move to the downside on gold I waited for an area of support to form with rejections of pushing lower at this point an order block should start forming, I tend to get a better structure of an order block forming on the 5min, once a bullish engulfing to print above the last high then I take the trade, today I had no draw down my entry was precise!
Gold H4: Ending Diagonal Signals ReversalUpdate: Gold formed an ending diagonal in H4, suggesting a wave cycle completion. A pullback for wave (iv) is expected before a new push higher. Watching for key support to hold before wave (v) continuation.
MASSIVE Bull Run Pending for Gold!!!Been looking for this drop! Waiting for a great entry for a bullish swing. Price looks like it might have made lows right at a H4 Gap but there is a larger one lower that I want to wait and see if they go for. I'm just not interested in a Long until I see price sweep the recent lows first.
Gold is rotational for now! So we be PatientWe need a breakout to the upside or a break down to retrace before we get a significant move. For now we will just monitor the price action to see what they want to do. Cause in the area its in right now, it can go either way.
Gold's Resilience: A Bounce Back from Key Support Demand ZoneGold has rallied off a key demand area of support as the US Dollar peaked and then retraced. This precious metal is currently navigating challenges stemming from forecasts regarding US interest rates and ongoing economic policies tied to the Trump administration.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell has indicated that the US economy is in "remarkably good" shape, which has bolstered the Dollar while putting downward pressure on Gold. However, analysis of the Commitment of Traders (COT) report reveals that smart money remains positioned on the long side, suggesting that there is still potential for upward movement in Gold.
Despite its recent performance, Gold appears to be in a relatively oversold position, supported by favorable seasonal trends that could lead to a bullish outlook. The current demand area presents a crucial opportunity for Gold to retrace and gain momentum once again, making it an interesting point of observation for traders looking to capitalize on potential price recovery.
✅ Please share your thoughts about GC1! in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
