Gold soybean oil Monday Friday I posted that the goal was likely to go lower because the market Gap lower and even though the market went higher from its low it couldn't close the gap and that tells me that the markets likely to go to new lows even though it might temporarily shows some buying Behavior. that's what it did and it went even a few $1000 lower since the close of Friday and it still might go lower since there's no evidence of buyers even though the market is at a support resistance line. I think the unrealized drawdown from the high is 20,000 or so dollars and that does not make this Market bearish and if it goes lower as I suspect it will go lower.the market is Trading with significant volatility and expansion and that means the market is going to have bigger moves when it moves higher and bigger moves when it moves lower compared to markets that have very little volatility and very small range. I did not address this in the video because the video was on the laborious side.... sorry about that. it satis support resistance line, it has not closed an important Gap lower.... so it could go higher or lower but I think it's probably going to go lower. and a good portion of that analysis is that gold has been so bullish for a significant. Of time..... I think the sellers are ultimately going to push this a little bit lower and this can be very profitable for the smart money because the market is going to take out some of the late buyers who like to trade all-time highs which is a very difficult way to make money because this pattern suggests that a lot of people who were break out buyers are in trouble with their long trades because they got in to late. now if you have a lot of money and you think the markets going to find buyers and make new highs... maybe you can hold out and maintain your long position but if you got into this Market on the Breakout move higher and you're down $25,000 per contract because you were just too late.... it just think how you're going to feel if it goes down another $25,000 before it starts turning and going higher
GCZ2024 trade ideas
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 11-19 : Top Resistance PatternToday's Pattern plays into the Anomaly Event I believe will continue to play out over the next 15+ trading days.
Today's Top Resistance pattern suggests the SPY/QQQ will move higher, attempting to find a peak, then roll downward into a decidedly bearish type fo trend.
My analysis continues to suggest a price Anomaly event is likely. I believe this event could be related to a financial or hard-asset type of devaluation event (a mini-crisis).
As of right now, we need to see how today plays out related to price trends. I would be cautious of a rollover to the downside throughout trading today for the SPY/QQQ.
Gold & Silver already moving into a very strong #3 rally phase - attempting to find the new consolidation range (forming the #3 of the EPP pattern).
Bitcoin has moved into a moderate bullish trend - but could still roll downward very strongly. Stay very cautious of this moderate upward trend until we get a more confirmed breakaway above the Ultimate High.
Get some.
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Gold11.14.24 yesterday I did a video on gold and I told you that gold would probably find a reversal pattern and go higher today. so far it has done that. I decided to show you what a stop would be so that you realize that I'm using about an $800 Stop which is not a small amount of money for people who are beginning to trade. this is important because I can get stopped out of the market on a small stop of $800 and then the market turns around and goes 1000 of dollars higher. but I am still going to have a small stop even if I get stopped out and if the market moves in a certain way I'll get back in for the same trade but it'll be on a new trigger and I'm not going to worry about the fact that I stopped myself out a little early. I decided to open up a new chart on gold and then I proceeded to tell you about how I use extensions in conjunction with 2 bar reversals. please spend some time looking at this and draw these patterns on your software. I decided to use a new chart to show you what happens in markets that will find you the trigger which is a long trade for me on this example.... and what to do when the market isn't quite ready to go in your direction and how you can exit the market.... and you might even be able to do it before it hits your initial stop so you might lose less than $800 but you're out of the market. the market does a bear flag.... you get out with some minor loss or Breakeven.... and then the market finds buyers using an extension..... and now you know this may be the time you get into the market.... and then you look for a two-bar reversal going in your direction Which is higher on this example. what I didn't tell you is that sometimes the market can give you two bear Flags and then on the third attempt after you've had two losses the market reverses and makes a huge move higher....... gold is one of those markets from my experience. I actually posted on that several years back and I'm too lazy to find it but it's there. A couple of years ago my two students didn't understand how to get into a market and manage the risk... to my liking.... so I decided to use a two-bar reversal because much of the time it's a two day reversal but it gives you a very clean signal. up until that time I could look at the market from my experience and know what it looked like but I couldn't convey it to my two students so it took me some time to figure out the 2 bar reversal... and there's another aspect of it that I would call opening price and I thought it was worth taking that approach because one of my students was up at the wee hours of the morning and not many cheating her time effectively and she couldn't see the patterns efficiently...... and so I tried show her a 2 bar reversal which I thought was easy but it took some time and this hypothetical trade on gold is an example.
There's A Huge 'Dip-Buy' Opportunity Right Now In GoldHey guys! In this video, we're talking about a 'dip-buy' trade idea in gold.
The macros and micros favor it - good luck to all.
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Gold's Resilience: A Bounce Back from Key Support Demand ZoneGold has rallied off a key demand area of support as the US Dollar peaked and then retraced. This precious metal is currently navigating challenges stemming from forecasts regarding US interest rates and ongoing economic policies tied to the Trump administration.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell has indicated that the US economy is in "remarkably good" shape, which has bolstered the Dollar while putting downward pressure on Gold. However, analysis of the Commitment of Traders (COT) report reveals that smart money remains positioned on the long side, suggesting that there is still potential for upward movement in Gold.
Despite its recent performance, Gold appears to be in a relatively oversold position, supported by favorable seasonal trends that could lead to a bullish outlook. The current demand area presents a crucial opportunity for Gold to retrace and gain momentum once again, making it an interesting point of observation for traders looking to capitalize on potential price recovery.
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GOLD & SILVER Attempt To Break Higher - Moving Into EEP #3Gold and Silver attempt to break upward, moving away from the larger EPP Phase #2 (consolidation/FLAGGING) setup.
If my research is correct, we'll see a very strong rally setting up in Gold/Silver over the next 2-4+ hours - likely see GOLD rallying up to $2720+ and SILVER rallying up to $32.50-$33.
Get ready. This could be a very strong rally phase targeting new all-time highs over the next 15+ days.
Get Some.
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Don't expect seasonality to save gold's baconWe're at that time of the year that gold tends to outperform. Yet with bigger drivers behind the wheel, I doubt that gold's 5% rebound will extend through to December. In fact, I'm now looking for short entries. Using stats from seasonality, ETF flows and market positioning, I outline my base for bears before highlighting key levels for them to consider.
MS.
Weekly Forex Forecast Nov. 18 - 22: SP500, NAS, DOW, GOLDThis is the Weekly Forex Forecast for Nov 18 -22nd.
The Big 3 Indexes started to pullback last week from there elections fueled rallies. Patience is required, as we look for confirmations of a market shift from bullish to bearish.
Gold also retraced last week, and may may struggle against a surging USD. Patience here will benefit traders, as we wait until the market tips its hand.
Check the comments section below for updates regarding this analysis throughout the week.
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Disclaimer:
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here.
Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
Gold Warning - A breather more?The DJI gave us a little warning at the upper extreme (see my post). If markets go down, Gold will/should go up.
So this Gold warning may just for a little pull-back to eh U-MLH. From there, I still see a target of 3000, which is around the Warning Line.
Gold bullish runWith bulls really flexing muscles here on Gold, I have plotted Fibonacci Projection levels and a channel to get an idea of where the price might go and where it might find a bit of resistance. I will see the areas where the channel lines and Fibo projection lines intersect as areas of importance.
long on golf
Trade Type: Long (Buy)
Market: MGC1
Timeframe: 15 min
Setup:
I am entering a long position based on a bullish pin bar pattern formed
Entry:
Trade Reasoning: This trade is based on a confluence of factors that suggest a potential bullish trend. The price is finding support near a key level, the RSI shows no overbought conditions, and the MACD shows an increasing bullish momentum. We are also approaching a breakout of a range, making this a good risk-to-reward opportunity.
Gold BounceAs gold falls into these lower zones here, I am looking for confirmation to flip long within these zones of support
Coffee soybeans oil gold11.13.24 the gold has moved down $20,000 from its high and will probably find buyers tomorrow. here there are no guarantees but it's coming to a Target area on the ABCD pattern and it doesn't have any 2 bar reversals to go higher so far today and so I'm guessing that the market will find a toolbar reversal after the end of today's market move you might even find the reversal later tonight after the market closes for a bit and then opens up later today.
Gold in weekly chartHello guys
This is my last analysis.
I hope all of you have found your way in this tricky market and for now I just want to show you how XAU will fluctuate in the next weeks. I am not 100 percent sure if wave (iv) has started or not but if it has started then all swing traders should be more careful about this corrective pattern(wave 4th). According to fundamental news and war and peace rumours around the world, a 4 wave patter makes sense.
Be safe and Happy my friends
Gold bearish! 2570 is the next most probable targetGold has finally given in to the pressure of a strong dollar. I expect lower prices until we get to the $2570 price point. Good luck my friends!
GOLD Swing SpeculationTechnical Analysis Overview:
1.Current Trend Context:
• The breakdown from the ascending channel signals a shift in market sentiment from bullish to potentially bearish. This type of pattern breakdown can often lead to a corrective phase or a trend reversal.
•The price has shown a bearish rejection, indicating sellers’ control at higher levels. This is confirmed by the volume spike during the recent decline.
2.Key Support and Resistance Levels:
• Resistance Zone: The area around 76,000 to 76,746 serves as a key resistance zone after the breakdown. A price recovery to this zone may provide a swing short opportunity.
• Support Levels: Immediate support is near 74,898 and further down near 68,237. Price behavior near these levels should be monitored for potential bounce trades.
3.Indicators:
• RSI (Relative Strength Index): The RSI appears to be diverging from the price, indicating weakening bullish momentum and potential for further downside. It is important to look out for RSI moving into oversold territory, which could signal a reversal or consolidation.
• Moving Averages: If the price is trading below key moving averages (like the 20-day and 50-day), it suggests that the short-term and medium-term trends are bearish.
4.Volume Analysis:
• The recent surge in volume during the breakdown suggests strong selling pressure, which is a bearish sign. Volume should be monitored during any pullback to assess the strength of potential recoveries.
Swing Trading Strategy:
1.Bearish Swing Trade Setup:
• Entry Point: Consider entering short on a bounce back towards the resistance zone around 76,000–76,746, especially if there is a bearish candlestick formation (like a bearish engulfing pattern or pin bar) on lower timeframes.
• Stop Loss: Place a stop loss above the recent highs or key resistance levels, e.g., above 76,746, to limit downside risk.
• Target Levels: Aim for targets near the support levels, with a first target around 74,000 and a second target near 68,237 if the downward momentum continues.
2.Bullish Reversal Trade Setup:
• Entry Point: If price approaches key support levels (e.g., 74,898) and shows signs of reversal (such as a bullish engulfing candle, hammer, or divergence in RSI), consider a swing long trade.
• Stop Loss: Place a stop loss below the recent swing low, or slightly below the identified support level to manage risk.
• Target Levels: Aim for a target near the resistance zones around 76,000–76,746. Additional targets can be adjusted based on the strength of the reversal.
3. Risk Management:
• Always maintain a favorable risk-to-reward ratio (e.g., at least 1:2).
• Utilize trailing stops if the trade moves favorably to lock in profits.
Additional Considerations:
• Macro Factors: Gold prices are influenced by macroeconomic factors such as inflation, interest rates, and geopolitical events. Consider these factors alongside technical analysis.
• Timeframe Alignment: Since this is a swing trade, focus on daily and 4-hour charts for entries and exits.
• Market Sentiment: Watch for shifts in broader market sentiment that may affect gold’s safe-haven status.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Trading and investing in financial markets involve risk and may not be suitable for all individuals. Past performance is not indicative of future results. It is essential to conduct your own research, assess your financial situation, risk tolerance, and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any trading or investment decisions. The information provided here is based on technical chart patterns and market trends and is subject to change due to market conditions or unforeseen events.
2024-11-13 - priceactiontds - daily update - goldGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
gold - We are at the last stand for the bulls before this is going to free fall down to 2500 or 2400. I have on more open bull gap to 2560 and if that is closed, there is no more support until much lower. It’s obviously max bearish but I won’t short this. r:r is not there imo.
comment : Easy to write about. Either bulls reverse this very hard above 2560, or we flush down to 2500. Market made the move from 2600 to 2800 in 40 days and bears now reversed it in 9. This selling is as climactic as it get’s. A short squeeze is almost inevitable at this point. Need huge buying pressure and a give up bar for me to join the bulls. Every touch of the 4h 20ema has been sold for 2 weeks. First target for the bulls is 2600, followed by 2630 and then they still have 2 more bear trend lines to break. Really tough for bulls. If they manage those targets, market turns neutral and we will probably move sideways.
current market cycle: bear trend
key levels: 2600 - 2700
bull case: Bullish have their do or die moment here under 2600. Reverse or flush down to 2500. Selling is overdone, which is weird since we started at overbought. Interesting times. Weekly 20ema is at 2600 and an open bull gap. This support is as good as it gets, if it fails, sell this hard.
Invalidation is below 2570.
bear case: Bears selling it all. Best shorts are from the 4h 20ema. Can you still sell this on the next 4h ema touch? Yes but you have to be prepared that market will make a higher low, since this is so oversold.
Invalidation is above 2630.
short term: Neutral until big buying pressure. Below 2570 I join the bears if we flush down.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-11-13 : Will do an update on the weekend. 3000 is not going to happen. If bulls are lucky, they see 2700 again but for now that’s more of a dream than a likely outcome.
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Selling 4h 20ema.
Q4 OUTLOOK FOR GOLDI believe we have capped the high for the year for Gold and are now trading the closing wick back into the overall range for 2024. If you want more insights to this idea please click the link to the video below. Thanks.
Understanding Gold Panic Selling Reactions BetterThis video is designed to help you better understand how Gold works as a hedge instrument and how to attempt to measure Panic Selling phases in Precious Metals.
Metals offer an incredible opportunity when Panic Selling hits. But it can also present some very real risks because of price volatility.
Panic selling in the markets is usually an event-driven sell-off in almost all markets (including metals).
This type of selling is usually related to traders pulling assets (CASH) away from all market sectors because of some crisis or geopolitical event. It is a way for traders to react to the fear of the event while sometimes ignoring how metals will react to the future revaluation event.
Yet, who wants to hold Gold when it may fall 8.5% to 15% throughout this panic selling process?
If you learn how to spot the base/bottom efficiently (using my Excess Phase Peak patterns), you'll be able to pinpoint some incredible opportunities in metals.
I hope this video helps you to understand exactly how these Panic Selling events unfold - and lear to spot/trade them more efficiently.
The reality of the current market environment is that the Trump win is the event (call it a crisis or not - I don't care). This event is causing markets to revalue current asset classes (notice the strength of the US Dollar since Election Day).
I believe this revaluation event is nearly over and prices will begin to adjust into what I'm calling my "Anomaly Event" - where price levels settle back into a reversion (normal) type of contraction event before moving into a late-stage Santa Rally.
If I'm right, we'll see a base/bottom in metals happen after November 15-19, 2024.
Get some.
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GOLD THE S&P 11.8.24 I that some of these markets are overbought and that there should be some corrections lower. up the gold market corrected about $10,000 and then it reversed about $7000.... but it looks like it might go lower to the lower range box which I explained in the video . I thought I needed to put in realistic stops because you need to know what they are. if I tell you gold is a great trade because I think $2000 stop is a small stop... you and I may not agree on what a small stop is. but if I can risk $2000 to make $9000 that is a risk of willing to take. you still have to know what a stop looks like not just the range and you do that through looking at the chart a daily or a four-hour chart. in addition, there are subtle changes in the market that can give you a clue that you can stay in longer or that you should get out sooner and so you look for these behaviors.
GOLD MCXGold Future near demand zone
Target can be 76000-76200
This chart is only for educational purpose
Gold Update: Post-Election WeaknessThe price of gold typically drops after U.S. elections, and this time is no different.
This weakness coincides with the expected wave count on the chart, as Wave 4 correction was anticipated. (see related)
Wave 3 is extended, and so is sub-Wave 5 within it, which is a common pattern for commodities.
Wave 4 has now begun, and there are two ways to measure its potential target:
1. Wave 4 typically retraces Wave 3 by around 38.2%.
2. The trend channel formed through the peaks of Wave 1 and Wave 3, and the valley of Wave 2, suggests a potential bottom for Wave 4.
This chart shows an amazing alignment of these two factors: the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement is at $2,428, and the bottom of the channel is around $2,450. These levels provide a strong double support for gold prices.
The final upward impulse should at least retest the all-time high of $2,802 (the peak of Wave 3).
The Cup & Handle pattern (see related ideas) has a target of $3,000.
Bullish Gold Trade IdeaGold is showing signs of bullish momentum following the Federal Reserve's 0.25% rate cut, which has softened the U.S. dollar and increased demand for safe-haven assets. On the intraday charts, gold is consolidating near key support levels, setting up for a potential breakout.
