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GCZ2024 trade ideas

Gold in weekly chartHello guys This is my last analysis. I hope all of you have found your way in this tricky market and for now I just want to show you how XAU will fluctuate in the next weeks. I am not 100 percent sure if wave (iv) has started or not but if it has started then all swing traders should be more careful about this corrective pattern(wave 4th). According to fundamental news and war and peace rumours around the world, a 4 wave patter makes sense. Be safe and Happy my friends
COMEX:GC1!
by AMA_FX
2
How to Manage Gold RisesGold is likely to continue its upward trend. And how I have been managing it both as an investor and a trader for the Gold. I hope this tutorial will be helpful for two groups of people: 1. Those who already have some positions and would like to know how to accumulate more, and 2. Those who do not yet have a position but are considering getting in and trading it, though you may be worried about entering at a peak, as gold continues to reach new highs. Micro Gold Futures & Options Ticker: MGC Minimum fluctuation: 0.10 per troy ounce = $1.00 Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
COMEX:GC1!Long
by konhow
1
Gold Update: Post-Election WeaknessThe price of gold typically drops after U.S. elections, and this time is no different. This weakness coincides with the expected wave count on the chart, as Wave 4 correction was anticipated. (see related) Wave 3 is extended, and so is sub-Wave 5 within it, which is a common pattern for commodities. Wave 4 has now begun, and there are two ways to measure its potential target: 1. Wave 4 typically retraces Wave 3 by around 38.2%. 2. The trend channel formed through the peaks of Wave 1 and Wave 3, and the valley of Wave 2, suggests a potential bottom for Wave 4. This chart shows an amazing alignment of these two factors: the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement is at $2,428, and the bottom of the channel is around $2,450. These levels provide a strong double support for gold prices. The final upward impulse should at least retest the all-time high of $2,802 (the peak of Wave 3). The Cup & Handle pattern (see related ideas) has a target of $3,000.
COMEX:GC1!Education
by aibek
The Importance of Financial Discipline in TradingThe Importance of Financial Discipline in Trading: A Pathway to Lasting Success Achieving consistent success hinges on one fundamental principle: financial discipline. This concept encompasses adherence to a well-structured trading strategy, effective risk management, and emotional control. Distinguishing successful traders from those who struggle, financial discipline empowers individuals to make informed decisions while navigating the often chaotic world of financial markets. Understanding Financial Discipline Financial discipline is about maintaining a methodical approach to trading. It requires traders to exercise patience in waiting for favorable market conditions, the courage to cut losses promptly, and the self-restraint to avoid impulsive risks. By establishing clear trading rules and sticking to them, traders can minimize errors, conserve capital, and foster long-term profitability. In contrast, a lack of discipline can lead to devastating consequences, derailing even the most promising strategies and exposing traders to significant financial setbacks. Also Read: The Critical Role of Emotional Control Emotions can be one of the biggest hurdles in trading. Decisions driven by fear, greed, or overconfidence often lead to regrettable outcomes. For instance, fear may result in prematurely exiting a position, causing traders to miss out on potential gains when they could have held on longer. Conversely, the lure of quick profits might tempt traders to overtrade or take on excessive risk. Disciplined traders minimize the impact of emotions by adhering to a comprehensive pre-planned strategy that emphasizes consistency. This approach includes specific criteria for trade entries and exits, pre-defined risk thresholds, and clear guidelines for position sizing. By operating within these parameters, traders can cope with the inevitable volatility of the market without succumbing to emotional reactions. Moreover, having financial discipline allows traders to maintain composure during turbulent market periods, a time when many make ill-advised choices. The essence of financial discipline lies in its ability to keep traders focused on their long-term objectives, adapt strategies when needed, and ultimately achieve sustained profitability over time. Also Read: Setting Achievable Goals Successful trading begins with the establishment of realistic, achievable goals. Traders should clarify their objectives—in both the short and long term—to facilitate strategic decision-making. Short-term goals, such as monthly profit targets, should remain specific yet attainable, fostering motivation and providing benchmarks for progress. For example, rather than aiming for excessively high returns, a trader might target a modest monthly gain, reducing the urge to engage in risky behavior. However, flexibility is essential. Financial markets are dynamic, and goals may need adjustment in response to changing conditions. What may seem feasible during a bull market could become unrealistic in a downturn. Long-term goals, such as building wealth over several years, can help traders keep sight of their overarching aims without getting sidetracked by temporary setbacks. By setting realistic expectations, traders can avoid the pitfalls of ambition that often lead to burnout or reckless decisions. These well-defined goals serve not only as performance indicators but also as tools to cultivate patience and resilience in the trading journey. Risk Management: The Heart of Discipline Effective risk management is paramount for survival in trading, and disciplined traders recognize that controlling risk is essential for long-term sustainability. Every trade carries a degree of uncertainty, and without a robust risk management strategy, even minor losses can escalate, jeopardizing a trader's financial health. One fundamental risk management technique is the implementation of stop-loss orders. A stop-loss automatically closes a trade once it reaches a predetermined loss threshold, helping traders avoid the pitfall of holding onto losing positions in hopes of recovery. By defining acceptable limits, traders can mitigate risks and safeguard their accounts. Position sizing is another critical component of a prudent risk management strategy. Traders should only risk a small percentage of their total capital on any single trade, ensuring that a series of losses will not have a devastating impact on their overall account balance. This approach encourages traders to diversify their risks rather than overexposing themselves to any one market or trade. Additionally, understanding and applying a favorable risk-reward ratio is central to disciplined trading. Aiming for trades where the potential reward significantly surpasses the risk taken helps ensure that traders remain profitable in the long run. For example, a risk-reward ratio of 3:1 means risking $100 to potentially earn $300. By consistently identifying trades with such favorable ratios, traders can weather inevitable losses while maintaining a path to profitability. Also Read: Mastering Emotional Control The psychological aspects of trading cannot be overlooked. Emotions such as fear and greed can markedly hinder progress. Fear may lead to hasty exits from positions, while greed could incite traders to exceed their risk limits in pursuit of greater profits. Both scenarios jeopardize a structured trading plan and can have dire financial consequences. Long-term success in trading requires emotional control, allowing traders to base decisions on careful analysis rather than spontaneous reactions to the market. Fostering a disciplined routine is key. This starts with a thorough trading plan that outlines clear entry and exit strategies, risk management protocols, and position sizes. Consistently revisiting and adhering to this plan will help mitigate impulsive decision-making influenced by market mood swings or personal stressors. Embracing losses as an inherent part of trading is also vital. Even the most adept traders experience losing trades, and it's crucial to avoid allowing recent losses to cloud future judgment. Focusing on the broader strategy and long-term performance instead of fixating on individual trades enhances a trader’s capacity to remain rational and composed. Also Read: and... Conclusion: The Path to Consistency and Success Financial discipline is not merely a concept; it's the bedrock of effective trading. By prioritizing structured strategies, managing risk diligently, and controlling emotions, traders can position themselves for sustained success in the financial markets. The journey to mastery involves setting realistic goals, crafting sound risk management plans, and cultivating emotional resilience. Ultimately, by embracing these principles, traders can improve their decision-making processes and enhance their chances for consistent, profitable outcomes in the exciting yet challenging world of trading.
COMEX:GC1!Education
by FOREXN1
1
#202444 - priceactiontds - weekly update - goldGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr gold: Neutral. Bears got a minor pullback from the ath but only printed 1 decent bear bar before disappointment again. 2720 is probably next big support and I see the market rather moving sideways and retesting the highs before a bigger move down and a break of the bull trend line. Quote from last week: comment: Minor pullback by the bears but they can not get follow through selling and that is why we can only conclude higher prices. We are trading near the top of the bull channel but we can just continue to do so until we hit 2800, which is my next upper target. I do think around 2800 we will see some bigger profit taking. comment: Decent pullback now on the daily chart but still far above the daily 20ema. Friday’s rejection at 2772 was good enough to expect this to break below 2740 for the second leg down. Problem for the bears is, that even if they break below 2720, the downside is probably limited to the bull trend line from August. So clearly a tough spot to trade. Any long closer to 2700 is better than closer to 2750. Same logic for shorts, I think 2800 continues to be a good level to sell and market moves more sideways instead of another break above that price. current market cycle: bull trend but it’s getting weaker and we could already be in a trading range 2700-2800. key levels: 2700 - 2800 bull case: Bulls want this to stay above the previous support 2720 and move sideways between 2720 and 2800. It would show great strength if they would not let the market test down to the bull trend line and move sideways instead. If they do this for a couple more days, bears will give up and try again around 2800. For now I don’t see bulls breaking 2800 again, since the rally was very climactic over the past months. Invalidation is below 2680. bear case: Bears finally printed some decent bear bars on the 4h chart and they want a second leg down to test the bull trend line around 2700. There we can expect some sideways movement and a battle for the big round number. Until it is clearly broken, I favor the bulls to continue sideways to up again and that 2700 is support. Invalidation is above 2820. outlook last week: short term: Bullish for 2800. Again. → Last Sunday we traded 2754 and now we are at 2749. Perfect outlook, 2801 was hit on Wednesday and Thursday. Hope you made some. short term: Slightly bearish for a test down to 2700-2710. medium-long term - Update from 2024-11-03: For now I can’t see this breaking above 2800, since the rally was climactic. Until 2700 is broken, I expect sideways movement inside this range. Market should test down to the weekly 20ema over the next weeks/months but bears have absolutely nothing to show for since June and that’s why we can’t expect bigger selling until they clearly do more. current swing trade: None chart update: Added potential two legged correction down to 2700
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!Short
by priceactiontds
Gold's potential to push higher todayGold's potential to push higher today can be attributed to a few converging factors despite recent volatility. The metal saw significant downside pressure yesterday, likely due to profit-taking after recent highs, yet it remains supported by ongoing geopolitical tensions and renewed demand for safe-haven assets. Notably, tensions in the Middle East continue to attract investors to gold as a hedge, providing support amid concerns of an escalation in conflict​ KITCO ​ KITCO . Another factor involves broader financial market conditions. The dollar remains strong, which often puts pressure on gold, but the likelihood of more dovish moves from the Federal Reserve in the coming months is supporting the metal’s upward trajectory. Analysts from Goldman Sachs expect continued central bank gold purchases, particularly from emerging markets, alongside possible Fed rate cuts, which could sustain demand for gold as a hedge against fiat currency volatility​ GOLDMAN SACHS . Given these dynamics, today’s upward movement in gold could be seen as a response to both immediate geopolitical fears and a continued expectation of supportive monetary policy, potentially leading gold toward further gains in the near term.
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!Long
by OssianH
Gold Flashing Warning SignsGold Flashing Warning Signs: Why We’re Taking a Cautious Short Position Today, our Commitment of Traders (COT) strategy triggered a short trade on gold. Yes, we know—shorting gold at all-time highs feels like swimming upstream. But if you’ve been with us long enough, you know we don’t follow the crowd. We follow the data. And the signals? Well, let’s just say they’re getting hard to ignore. To clarify, this setup wasn’t made on a whim. We got the green light when key technical indicators—Momentum, the Detrended Price Oscillator (DPO), and the Commodity Channel Index (CCI)—all confirmed a bearish divergence on the Daily timeframe. Here’s a closer look at what’s guiding our trade: 1. Commercial Traders Are on High Alert Commercial players—those who deal with gold at its core—are positioned short like we haven’t seen in over three years. They’re the steady hands here, and their caution is hard to overlook. It suggests that even in a market frenzy, they’re seeing potential downsides others may not be watching. 2. Retail Speculators Are Leaning Long While not at full extremes, small speculators are heavily positioned on the long side, nearing a six-month high. This confidence could mean trouble—when retail traders load up, it can mark the late stages of a rally. We’re paying attention to this; it’s a classic contrarian indicator. 3. Open Interest Is Surging—But Why? Open interest in gold futures has been climbing steadily. That’s usually a good thing for bulls, but here’s the twist: large and small speculators have been driving this uptrend. If these buyers lose momentum, who’s left to push prices higher? 4. Sentiment Is Peaking—But Is It Too High? Market sentiment is at a bullish extreme, with advisors optimistic about gold’s rally. High sentiment can be a double-edged sword. It often means there are few people left to buy, and that’s when reversals happen. It’s a classic market psychology moment—and we’re taking note. 5. Gold Is Pricey Relative to Treasuries Using our WillVal indicator, we see that gold is hitting valuation peaks compared to treasuries. This isn’t an automatic sell, but it’s a signal that the precious metal might be pushing its limits. 6. ADX Shows Intense Momentum, But There’s Caution Our ADX indicator is above 40, confirming strong momentum. But we’re cautious here—when the market gets this heated, we often see shifts. Combined with those commercial short positions and high investor sentiment, this momentum could be due for a reality check. 7. Bearish Spread Divergence Is Emerging There’s divergence between the front-month and next-month gold contracts, a sign that underlying strength may be weakening. It’s a small detail, but one that hints the rally might be overextended. 8. Supplementary Indicators Aren't Looking Optimistic Rounding things out, our Insider Acc/Dis, %R, and Stochastic indicators are all showing bearish signals. We don’t rely on these alone, but together, they reinforce the caution signals we’re already seeing. The Bottom Line Shorting gold during a run like this isn’t a decision we take lightly. But the COT data, market positioning, and sentiment suggest a cooling-off period could be near, and the trade was triggered today via the divergence on the daily. Markets have a way of humbling even the most confident predictions, so we approach this trade with an open mind and a healthy dose of caution. If you’re interested in seeing how we analyze trades and approach market extremes, stay tuned.
COMEX:GCZ2024Short
by Tradius_Trades
Why To Buy Gold In 3 StepsLearning how to buy gold was a big challenge because i didn't know the right time to actually buy it It looks simple at first especially when you Listen to some financial market gurus that just say “Buy Gold, dont worry about the price, because its a huge against inflation.” But what if you want to make moeny from the price action? You may be thinking, “Its not possible to make money from the price action” But the truth is its very much possible to make a trae from the gold price action. Here is what i learned: 1. Gold is a protection against inflation 2. Gold performs better than the stock market 3. Gold keeps your buying power Now if you are just beginning at buying Gold then you may buy at the top, which is not a cool place to start from but if you want to learn how to buy Price the right way then keep reading to understand the strategy i use. • Gold Buying Strategy The strategy to buying gold is really not that hard. Because remember you want to buy it in order to proit from the price action right? So maybe you are thinking, “If only i could make so much money from the Gold price action and not worry about storage fees, and delivery fees from physical gold” Thats even the more reason why you have to learn how to buy the gold price action right now. Thats why i use the Rocket booster strategy The rocket booster strategy is a trend following indicator this strategy is very simple and yet very powerful at the same time. What you need to do is try to understand the moving averages of the last 50 days of the price of the asset you are looking at, Then you need to try to understand the moving price average of the last 200 days.Then after that you need to understand the gap up in the price action. • How The Gap Up In Price Action Happens The gap up in price action is a very important step to really think about especailly when you are looking at the gold price. You may be thinking “What if the 50 Moving Average crosses above the 200 Moving average? Isnt that part of the rocket booster strategy?” Listen this past week i saw a stock price that followed the rocket booster strategy and it was trending on social media heavy. When i checked on it today i realised that the price of this particular stock had crashed! “What the hell happend?” I thought to myself. This is not crowd pyschology. Just because a stock is trending on social media does not give you the green light to trade it. Also you have to enter the price action before the gap.Now if you want ro enter after the Gap then thats up to you,But if you want to follow the exact strategy its has to be before the gap. • Why Buying Before The Gap Up Or Rally Up Is Important Listen in trading they are a bunch of theories some say buy before the rally some say before during the price rally. While otehr will a fiancial expert to wait for a hot tip.Sadly even after that hot tip. You will need the confidence of a bull to Pull the trigger.Trading is a mental game. You re playing this game with a bunch people that sadly dont even make the market move at all Now are there some trading pocket opportunities that involve pumps and dumps..yes they are. But remember right now we are looking at the price of gold. You may be thinking, “Gold price action is very boring...why are we addressing this?” Because the market is very quiet right now but you ttrading journey never stops you have to learn more Rocket boost this content to learn more. Disclaimer: Trading is risky you will lose money wether you like it or not please risk managment and profit taking strategies.
COMEX:GC1!Long
by lubosi
Weekly Forex Forecast OCT. 28: BUY GOLD | XAUUSD!This weekly forecast is for Oct 28 - Nov 1st. Gold is still bullish, and BUYS are still the best bet. The formation of the highlighted Weekly and Daily +FVGs confirm the bullish order flow. Buys are in order. I will be avoiding sell setups in this market. Check the comments section below for updates regarding this analysis throughout the week. Enjoy! May profits be upon you. Leave any questions or comments in the comment section. I appreciate any feedback from my viewers! Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis. Thank you so much! Disclaimer: I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor. All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies. I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here. Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
COMEX:GC1!Long
by RT_Money
4
Initiated a short position in GOLD, successfully reached target Gold may show bullish momentum at today’s open due to several key factors: Safe-Haven Demand: Rising inflation or economic instability often drives investors toward gold, bolstering its appeal. Weaker Dollar: A softer dollar makes gold more attractive to international buyers, supporting price gains. Interest Rate Outlook: Speculation around potential rate cuts or pauses makes holding gold more favorable, reducing its opportunity cost. Geopolitical Uncertainty: Tensions or instability in global markets can increase demand for gold as a safe asset. Technical Factors: A recent break above resistance or strong support levels can trigger technical buying, reinforcing an uptrend.
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!Long
by OssianH
XS.com: Gold hits more record highs amidst accelerating global Written by Samer Hasn, Senior Market Analyst at XS.com Gold hit more record highs today, barely touching $2,790 an ounce, while December COMEX futures broke above $2,800 for the first time today. Gold’s gains come as demand for gold accelerates amid political and economic uncertainty and still-high levels of geopolitical tension. Today, we saw the World Gold Council’s Q3 Gold Trends Report, which showed that global demand grown by more than 5% year-on-year to over 1,300 tons in Q3, with demand value exceeding $100 billion for the first time. This growth in demand for the second consecutive quarter was driven by increased investment demand, a recovery in jewelry consumption growth, and the return of physical gold ETFs to accumulate bullion for the first time after nine consecutive quarters of selling. As for the supply side, with the successive increase in prices, mine production recorded growth for the second consecutive quarter to reach 989 tons. While producers have almost completely stopped hedging against falling prices, which may reflect their optimism about the future of prices that may continue to gain, which may reduce their desire to hedge, which may be costly. The Wall Street Journal had also reported in March that the desire to hedge has declined in an effort by producers to fully benefit from the upward trend in gold, including the world's largest producer, Newmont, which told the newspaper that it its policy is to not hedge. There are many positive factors supporting the increase in demand for gold, while there does not appear to be a chance towards weakening these factors on the near horizon. In the Middle East, with the approach of the presidential elections in the US, we are witnessing increasing momentum around ceasefire talks, whether in Lebanon or Gaza. This is not the first time, as it was preceded by many previous attempts regarding Gaza, which the US administration said at the time that an agreement was close to being reached, but those negotiations followed only escalated the conflict to become a regional war. Regarding Gaza, which any agreement to stop the war there is expected to push for a calm in the entire region, negotiations are still ongoing this week with the participation of the US. However, it is unlikely that Hamas and Israel will reach an agreement on the terms at least before the end of the elections in the US, according to what The New York Times quoted from officials earlier this week. A Hamas official said yesterday that they will not agree to any agreement that does not include a complete cessation of the war and Israel’s withdrawal from the Strip, which the latter rejects. The Times also quoted officials as saying that the Israeli Prime Minister will wait to know the identity of who will head the White House before entering a diplomatic path – in reference to the bet on Donald Trump’s victory to give Israel a free hand in the region. Therefore, optimism about the calm will not be justified unless an agreement is actually signed, regardless of what the US administration may say later. In Lebanon, the picture may seem more mixed. reported, citing officials, that US President Joe Biden will arrive in Israel on Thursday to try to reach an agreement to end the war in Lebanon. This agreement may take a few weeks according to Axios – beyond the election. It is also worth noting that Israel has abandoned a previous high-ceilinged demand to allow for “active enforcement” in Lebanon against Hezbollah even after the war has stopped, which would have been met with a Lebanese rejection. But there is no indication that the far-right coalition in Israel is lenient in pushing for an agreement and accepting an end to the war, as they call for continued military action and reject any agreement for a permanent calm. After the election, we will be waiting for the next round of attacks and counterattacks between Iran and Israel. The recent Israeli attack on air defense systems surrounding oil infrastructures may suggest its intention to target those facilities in the next round, which may prompt Iran to escalate its counterattack much more than before and to activate the role of its allies in the region more and obstruct the flow of supplies from the Strait of Hormuz, according to what Iranian officials told The Times last week. This will have an impact on the global economy as a whole through higher oil prices and fueling inflation again. That said, I do not think that the region is heading in any direction towards calming down at least in the near future, which may maintain the geopolitical risk premium for gold and push it to continue its historical gains. As for the economic front, the series of labor market numbers in the United States began with a negative surprise in the job openings in the JOLTS report, which was 7.44 million in September, which represents the lowest level in more than three years. This was in contrast to a greater than expected increase in Consumer Confidence Index. While these figures did not change the assumption that the Fed will inevitably cut interest rates at the November and December meetings, they have strengthened it for next January, with a probability of more than 50% that we will see a quarter point cut, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. This contributed to reversing the upward trend in the 10-year Treasury bond yields, which continue to decline today after reaching their highest level in three months, which pave the way for gold to complete its gains. Today and for the rest of this week, we look forward to the continued flow of labor market, GDP and core PCE numbers. While the emergence of more negative surprises could reinforce the negative picture for the US economy and push gold towards further gains by benefiting from the economic uncertainty. Finally, gold is benefiting from the political uncertainty resulting from the approaching US elections, where neither candidate is significantly ahead in the polls. Kamala Harris is still leading by a small margin of 1.4 percentage points in the average polls, according to FiveThirtyEight. In addition, we see repeated talk about concerns about the worsening deficit and government debt, whether Trump or Harris wins, which could weaken the appeal of the dollar and be a positive factor for gold.
COMEX:GC1!
by SamerHa