Long Setup: Micro Copper Futures (Jul 2025)While U.S. equity markets are closed in observance of Juneteenth, traders in the futures markets still have opportunities to position ahead of broader market moves. One such opportunity is forming in Micro Copper Futures (MHGN2025), which continues to consolidate in a tight range near key technical levels. The current structure suggests a potential breakout to the upside with a favorable risk-reward setup.
Technically, price action remains compressed between approximately 4.70 and 4.90, coiling just above the Ichimoku Cloud and holding support above the mid-April range. This zone has acted as a critical demand area multiple times since April, and the market has rejected any meaningful downside continuation, signaling underlying strength.
A long position is being considered based on the following:
Entry Zone: Around 4.81, above the flat Kijun-sen and within the current range high.
Stop Level: Set at 4.7080, just below the support band and Ichimoku base, providing technical invalidation if broken.
Target: 5.10, aligning with previous resistance and psychological round number. This would complete a 6.8% upside move from current levels.
Risk/Reward Ratio: 2.64, indicating strong asymmetry favoring the long bias.
The MACD histogram remains positive despite flattening out in recent sessions, while the signal line crossover earlier in June continues to support the bullish case. Although momentum has paused, it has not turned negative, which may point to a consolidation phase before the next leg.
The broader copper narrative also lends support to this setup. With persistent demand from renewable infrastructure, data centers, and EVs, copper remains a fundamentally supported commodity despite near-term volatility driven by macro factors and central bank policy. Any fresh economic stimulus out of China or signs of rate stabilization globally could provide the catalyst for a bullish breakout in base metals.
Traders should monitor volume and any breakout beyond the 4.89–4.90 zone, which could trigger further buying. A daily close above 4.90 on increased volume would confirm the breakout and improve the probability of reaching the 5.10 target.
While today’s market holiday may reduce liquidity temporarily, it also offers a less crowded environment for early positioning. As always, risk management is paramount, and trade sizing should reflect the volatility and leverage of commodity futures.
This setup remains active and will be reassessed if price fails to hold above the key support zone or if macroeconomic conditions materially shift in the near term.
